# DDDOOOOOOOMMMM! Ver. 64586: Asteroid Apophis **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [February 8, 2011, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607 "2011-02-08T02:24:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/21 "2011-02-08T21:52:13Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > Sorry if you thought I was mocking you in some way; I was just enjoying the sci-fi overtones, that’s all. No worries; just clarifying for the world-at-large what the term means. > [@Baal\_Houtham](#): > > The Onion: > [Republicans Vote To Repeal Obama-Backed Bill That Would Destroy Asteroid Headed For Earth](http://www.theonion.com/articles/republicans-vote-to-repeal-obamabacked-bill-that-w,19025/) Sadly, this isn’t far, if at all, from the truth. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/22 "2011-02-08T22:05:10Z")
> [@Balance](#): > > If you were hoping to discourage _Star Trek_ references by adding “energetic gaseous cloud” and “impulse” to the discussion, I’m afraid this was a misguided missive. Heh. Reverse the ion flow and reroute through the deflector shield. Oh, red alert, and quote some passages from _Julius Caeser_. > [@mlees](#): > > Sooo… even with a 20 year fore knowledge of the asteroids orbital path and impact ('16 to '36), we can’t do anything about it? I thought early warning was the key to asteroid defence. Knowing is half the battle. Unfortunately, the other half is crawling out of bed, drinking a glass of water and a couple aspirin, walking outside, and doing battle with the dragon. Fortunately, while the methodology is as yet unproven there is nothing beyond the technological horizon preventing us from effecting the deflection of a modest (\<1 km diameter) PHO given adequate notice, and in fact such a global threat might even be beneficial, if but temporarily, in acknowledging the common fate of humankind and developing an infrastructure for operating in space for extended periods of time. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![mlees](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@mlees](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mlees)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/23 "2011-02-08T22:14:50Z")
**Stranger** I am willing to accept your say-so, but consider: “Mike” shot in Operation Ivy obliterated an atoll it was sitting on. It left a crater 6200 ft wide and 164 feet deep. Wouldn’t that be enough to shove a 900 foot asteroid onto a different orbital path? (I know the asteroid is moving at 30km per second, and that’s a lot of energy. Is that the thing to overcome?) ---
**Author:** ![hotflungwok](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/edb3f5/32.png) [@hotflungwok](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hotflungwok)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/24 "2011-02-08T22:16:24Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > Isn’t this the sort of thing the Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator was designed for? No, the Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator was specifically designed to cause an _Earth_ shattering kaboom, and not an asteroid shattering kaboom. ---
**Author:** ![JCorre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/3da27b/32.png) [@JCorre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JCorre)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/25 "2011-02-08T22:34:51Z")
What would the damage be like if an asteroid that size did hit the earth? Could something 300 feet across and moving at that speed wipe out a whole town or cause a tsunami? An even bigger result?? ---
**Author:** ![mlees](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@mlees](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mlees)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/26 "2011-02-08T22:40:02Z")
> [@JCorre](#): > > What would the damage be like if an asteroid that size did hit the earth? Could something 300 feet across and moving at that speed wipe out a whole town or cause a tsunami? An even bigger result?? > **[99942 Apophis | Possible impact effects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophis_asteroid#Possible_impact_effects)** > > As of 2021, the Sentry Risk Table estimated that Apophis would impact Earth with kinetic energy equivalent to 1,200 MT or megatons of TNT. In comparison, the energy released by the eruption of Krakatoa was 200 MT, the total global nuclear arsenal has an energy equivalent to 1,460 MT, and the Chicxulub impact and extinction event had an estimated energy of 100,000,000 MT (100 teratons). See TNT equivalent examples for an extended table of comparable energies. > The exact effects of an impact would ... ---
**Author:** ![JCorre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/3da27b/32.png) [@JCorre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JCorre)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/27 "2011-02-08T22:42:05Z")
Thanks! ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/28 "2011-02-08T22:51:37Z")
> [@JCorre](#): > > What would the damage be like if an asteroid that size did hit the earth? Could something 300 feet across and moving at that speed wipe out a whole town or cause a tsunami? An even bigger result?? > **[Near-Earth Asteroids | What are they? Where do they come from?](https://geology.com/articles/near-earth-asteroids.shtml)** > > Near-Earth asteroids: What they are, where they come from, how they form The above link has a chart that has some info along these lines. A 300 foot-wide asteroid would be stronger than the Tunguska event, but not strong enough to wipe out civilization. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/29 "2011-02-08T23:35:38Z")
> [@mlees](#): > > **Stranger** I am willing to accept your say-so, but consider: > > “Mike” shot in Operation Ivy obliterated an atoll it was sitting on. It left a crater 6200 ft wide and 164 feet deep. Wouldn’t that be enough to shove a 900 foot asteroid onto a different orbital path? (I know the asteroid is moving at 30km per second, and that’s a lot of energy. Is that the thing to overcome?) A few things need to be considered about nuclear explosions in the atmosphere versus those in the vacuum of space. We’ll use Ivy Mike as an example, since it has been brought up, but it applies to all nuclear “explosions” in general. Ivy Mike had an estimated yield of 10.5-12 megatons of TNT, corresponding to an energy of about 44 to 50 PJ; enough to impart a velocity change on an object with a 300 meter radius and a density of 2.5 tonnes per cubic meter (average for rock) of between 1.6 and 1.7 km/s. However, this assumes perfect transfer, where in reality a minimum of half (realistically, 90% or more) will be lost into space as it doesn’t contribute to motion in the lateral direction. Furthermore, in space without an atmosphere to absorb the x-ray and neutron radiation and convert it to mechanical shock waves, most of the energy from the device will heat up the rock. A small amount of material may vaporize via incandescence and even impart some chance in velocity by being exhausted from the main body, but most will be uselessly lost. Worse, the imparted energy may cause the PHO to be fragmented by thermal stresses (but not pulverized into small rocks or sand as some imagine) without any significant change in lateral velocity, resulting in multiple threats that may diverge slightly and will each have to be diverted independently but still posing a catastrophic threat to Earth, multiplying the complexity of the problem. Using a weapon inside of atmosphere (which acts as a tamper against the shockwave) to excavate loose soil and easily fragmented coral a few thousand meters is one thing, but diverting the path of tons of material in the vacuum of free interplanetary space is quite another, and the reason that you need some kind of medium to convert the highly energetic output to a more moderate distributed pressure which can impart a momentum change over some interval of time that will push on the entire mass more or less evenly regardless of whether it is one continuous blob of material or a bunch of individual fragments cemented together by a tenuous substrate of ice. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2011, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/30 "2011-02-09T00:19:19Z")
> [@mlees](#): > > [99942 Apophis - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophis_asteroid#Possible_impact_effects) Can they really estimate that precisely where the impact could occur?? ---
**Author:** ![a35362](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3da27b/32.png) [@a35362](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/a35362)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2011, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/31 "2011-02-09T00:33:41Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > A few things need to be considered about nuclear explosions in the atmosphere versus those in the vacuum of space. We’ll use Ivy Mike as an example, since it has been brought up, but it applies to all nuclear “explosions” in general. > > Ivy Mike had an estimated yield of 10.5-12 megatons of TNT, corresponding to an energy of about 44 to 50 PJ; enough to impart a velocity change on an object with a 300 meter radius and a density of 2.5 tonnes per cubic meter (average for rock) of between 1.6 and 1.7 km/s. However, this assumes perfect transfer, where in reality a minimum of half (realistically, 90% or more) will be lost into space as it doesn’t contribute to motion in the lateral direction. Furthermore, in space without an atmosphere to absorb the x-ray and neutron radiation and convert it to mechanical shock waves, most of the energy from the device will heat up the rock. A small amount of material may vaporize via incandescence and even impart some chance in velocity by being exhausted from the main body, but most will be uselessly lost. Worse, the imparted energy may cause the PHO to be fragmented by thermal stresses (but not pulverized into small rocks or sand as some imagine) without any significant change in lateral velocity, resulting in multiple threats that may diverge slightly and will each have to be diverted independently but still posing a catastrophic threat to Earth, multiplying the complexity of the problem. Using a weapon inside of atmosphere (which acts as a tamper against the shockwave) to excavate loose soil and easily fragmented coral a few thousand meters is one thing, but diverting the path of tons of material in the vacuum of free interplanetary space is quite another, and the reason that you need some kind of medium to convert the highly energetic output to a more moderate distributed pressure which can impart a momentum change over some interval of time that will push on the entire mass more or less evenly regardless of whether it is one continuous blob of material or a bunch of individual fragments cemented together by a tenuous substrate of ice. > > Stranger **Stranger** , this is why you can’t meet girls. 😉 😉 For your viewing pleasure, folks: [http://www.todaysbigthing.com/2008/09/09](http://www.todaysbigthing.com/2008/09/09) ---
**Author:** ![Dallas\_Jones](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dallas_jones/32/3277_2.png) [@Dallas\_Jones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dallas_Jones)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2011, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/32 "2011-02-09T00:34:03Z")
Here is a link to the Earth Imacts Effect Program. From the Imperial College in London. It lets you play around with the composition, velocity, angle of impact and size of any protential impact object. And you enter your own distance from impact and see how it will effect you personally. [http://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEffects/](http://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEffects/) ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tao\_s\_Revenge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/73ab20/32.png) [@The\_Tao\_s\_Revenge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tao_s_Revenge)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2011, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/33 "2011-02-09T01:34:33Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > A few things need to be considered about nuclear explosions in the atmosphere versus those in the vacuum of space. We’ll use Ivy Mike as an example, since it has been brought up, but it applies to all nuclear “explosions” in general. > > Ivy Mike had an estimated yield of 10.5-12 megatons of TNT, corresponding to an energy of about 44 to 50 PJ; enough to impart a velocity change on an object with a 300 meter radius and a density of 2.5 tonnes per cubic meter (average for rock) of between 1.6 and 1.7 km/s. However, this assumes perfect transfer, where in reality a minimum of half (realistically, 90% or more) will be lost into space as it doesn’t contribute to motion in the lateral direction. Furthermore, in space without an atmosphere to absorb the x-ray and neutron radiation and convert it to mechanical shock waves, most of the energy from the device will heat up the rock. A small amount of material may vaporize via incandescence and even impart some chance in velocity by being exhausted from the main body, but most will be uselessly lost. Worse, the imparted energy may cause the PHO to be fragmented by thermal stresses (but not pulverized into small rocks or sand as some imagine) without any significant change in lateral velocity, resulting in multiple threats that may diverge slightly and will each have to be diverted independently but still posing a catastrophic threat to Earth, multiplying the complexity of the problem. Using a weapon inside of atmosphere (which acts as a tamper against the shockwave) to excavate loose soil and easily fragmented coral a few thousand meters is one thing, but diverting the path of tons of material in the vacuum of free interplanetary space is quite another, and the reason that you need some kind of medium to convert the highly energetic output to a more moderate distributed pressure which can impart a momentum change over some interval of time that will push on the entire mass more or less evenly regardless of whether it is one continuous blob of material or a bunch of individual fragments cemented together by a tenuous substrate of ice. > > Stranger Could the atmosphere problem be solved by sending a bunch of tanks of gas with the nuke? Release the gas right at detonation and it seems like there would be plenty to get hot and expand. Maybe use deuterium and get some fusion effects going too. Or would the amount required be way too much to be viable? ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2011, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/34 "2011-02-09T01:56:06Z")
> [@The\_Tao\_s\_Revenge](#): > > Could the atmosphere problem be solved by sending a bunch of tanks of gas with the nuke? Release the gas right at detonation and it seems like there would be plenty to get hot and expand. Maybe use deuterium and get some fusion effects going too. Or would the amount required be way too much to be viable? Sure you could, but it wouldn’t be very efficient and would require several cubic kilometers of air at STP. (And no, you wouldn’t get any fusion, even if it were pure deuterium, as fusion can only occur at very high pressures and temperatures under confinement.) Using a sacrificial polystyrene “puck” that absorbs x-rays and converts them to kinetic energy by evaporating into a cloud of energetic plasma, which then pushes the entire mass laterally in a distributed impulse, would be far more efficient and also capable of “lensing” the energy release to achieve a higher efficiency than a straight spherical expansion. “Blowing up” a solid PHO just isn’t feasibly, and fragmenting a smaller one into still hazardous fragments isn’t really useful. Pushing one off to the side, however, so that it doesn’t intercept the Earth and won’t for the calculable future, on the other hand, is only a moderately challenging exercise in applying existing propulsion and nuclear technology. Under impetus, this would be readily doable within a ten year timeframe, and perhaps much less. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2011, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/35 "2011-02-09T02:44:29Z")
> [@a35362](#): > > **Stranger** , this is why you can’t meet girls. But he’ll end up saving the world, and once that news gets out, he’ll have all the action a man could dream of. [sub]Well, unless he has [scuffed shoes](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13383531&postcount=30) or something.[/sub] ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2011, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/36 "2011-02-09T03:20:11Z")
> [@hotflungwok](#): > > No, the Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator was specifically designed to cause an _Earth_ shattering kaboom, and not an asteroid shattering kaboom. While our Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space [del]Modulator[/del] Moderator is a threat to trolls and socks galore. ---
**Author:** ![Eriond\_s\_Revenge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ad7895/32.png) [@Eriond\_s\_Revenge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eriond_s_Revenge)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2011, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/37 "2011-02-09T05:10:10Z")
> [@mlees](#): > > **Stranger** I am willing to accept your say-so, but consider: > > “Mike” shot in Operation Ivy obliterated an atoll it was sitting on. It left a crater 6200 ft wide and 164 feet deep. Wouldn’t that be enough to shove a 900 foot asteroid onto a different orbital path? (I know the asteroid is moving at 30km per second, and that’s a lot of energy. Is that the thing to overcome?) An Apophis Impact scenario would released at least 510 megatons of energy – 50x that of “Ivy Mike”, and more than 10x Tzar Bombas. And launching ANY atomic weapon into outer space would bring out the environmentalists in droves – can we stop it? Should we even try to stop it? Would the “fallout” be worse than if we merely allow nature to take its course? However, the good news is that Apophis 99942 won’t be a problem for 26 years, so we’ve got plenty of time to work on strategy & new technology…assuming it’s even a problem at all, which is _highly uncertain_ at this point in tTime. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2011, 8:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/38 "2011-02-09T08:11:37Z")
> [@mlees](#): > > Sooo… even with a 20 year fore knowledge of the asteroids orbital path and impact ('16 to '36), we can’t do anything about it? I thought early warning was the key to asteroid defence. Fore knowledge is the key to hemorrhoid defense. Avoids rings around Uranus. Sorry. OCD ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2011, 10:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/39 "2011-02-09T10:32:43Z")
So really, even if it hits, it won’t have a truly significant effect? (10M dead isn’t really significant on this scale, and that’s without evacuation.) And what is the danger that interfering would actually cause an impact? It seems to me that it might be better to leave it alone. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2011, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607/40 "2011-02-09T12:22:40Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > …10M dead isn’t really significant on this scale, and that’s without evacuation… I don’t know, seems like the prospect of being flattened by a hurtling, 60,000 mph space rock would be pretty significant to them. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dddooooooommmm-ver-64586-asteroid-apophis/570607.md?page=3)