I feel like I’m going to regret wading in to this, but here goes:
Let me see if I can distill this correctly (let me know if I made some mistake). The general claim is this:
The price of a good right now is X. Of this, 77% represents something akin to the “base price” for the good, so the “base price” Y is 0.77X, while the “built-in” tax on the good, Z is 0.23X. This component Z arises because this is the amount of money paid out to employees (and directly through the government through FICA taxes) to ensure that their take-home pay is at some specific amount W (note that this means that the employees’ gross pay is higher than W).
So the argument goes that if we eliminate the income tax (and FICA taxes), then Z should logically go to zero, meaning that the price of the good is now the base price, Y. To make up for the lost tax revenue, we slap on top of Y a 30% tax, bringing the total price of the good back up to X. (I know that this means that the tax accounts for 23% of the price, but it’s still 30% of the “base price”).
Of course, for the price of the good to drop to the base price (before adding on the sales tax), the employers should only be paying the employees W, since anything extra that they were paying them was only to account for income taxes. By definition, if the employers pay the employees more than W, they can’t drop the price of the good to Y. So ivylass, I’m pretty sure you wouldn’t be seeing an extra $200 in each paycheck.
But wait, there’s more. For everything to work out correctly, employers can only drop employee wages to W. Any lower, and the employees wind up with less purchasing power under the fair tax scheme. The upshot is that the amount the employers can drop the wages is exactly the amount that the employees would have been paying in income and FICA taxes. This then is the only money that can go towards dropping prices. This means that the drop in prices (pre sales tax) would be commensurate with the elimination of the income tax and FICA taxes. Or, in other words, if prices are to remain constant the revenue from the national sales tax would be equivalent to the revenue from all taxes on wages.
Everything is fine and dandy if the national sales tax is meant to only account for the elimination of income and FICA taxes. In this situation, everything seems to work out as per my musings above, and everything stays constant in terms of purchasing power.
But if I’m not mistaken (and question #2 from the FAQ seems to indicate that I’m not), they also want to eliminate other taxes such as capital gains. This means that our national sales tax now has to account for more than wage taxes. And thus, by definition, has to be higher than the amount that employers can cut from wages. So either prices will go up (because prices pre-sales tax can only drop to account for the elimination of taxes on wages), or purchasing power will go down.
And before you start going on about the rebate, that’s simply another deficit that the sales tax has to cover, resulting in yet another increase in prices. Thus, the benefit from the rebate is essentially wiped out simply by offering it. And if the rebate is effectively useless, since it raises prices anyway, then as a poor person spending all of my money, I see my tax burden go from effectively zero to 23%.
Since the only way you do better is if you used to pay a lot of money in capital gains taxes, or your effective tax rate under the present system was more than 23%, I don’t see how this is anything other than a scheme to save the rich a lot of money in taxes at the expense of the poor (and hell, the working and middle classes too)