Unfortunately, one of the 6 “relatively sane” has to be McCarthy, because the speaker is the one who actually brings things up for a vote; he could simply decline.
Another has to be whats-his-name, the new Chairman of the Rules Committee; if it doesn’t come out of that committee, it doesn’t come up for a vote.
That’s not true, a simple majority can force a vote even in the face of an obstructive speaker. The only real leverage the freedom caucus has is to respond to that by calling a speaker vote and forcing the house back into where it was when McCarthy couldn’t secure a majority.
Ahhh, there’s the rub. And if he does, the insane 20 will call for a speaker vote and drag the discussion back into the pit of crazy.
But why would the Dems ever have to “cave” to this? If the Republicans really want to screw with the program, they have the votes to do this all by themselves. If they spend a week screeching about this, “Vote or we’ll do it!”, why wouldn’t the Dems just say, “Okay, then do it”?
The only reason to hold out for Dem votes is because the non-crazy wing of the GOP doesn’t really want to do what the Crazy Wing wants to do. So it will be the Dems who can hold the GOP hostage for concessions. “Oh, you want to slash Social Security, or you’ll let the Crazy Wing tank the economy? No, sorry, either we increase SS, or we let your people tank the economy. I’m sure your corporate masters will just accept that…”
Are the House rules set in stone for the next two years, or can they renegotiate them? If they can renegotiate, then once again, it only takes 6 Republicans finally coming to their senses to fix all this shit.
That it won’t get fixed is on them, not the Democrats.
I hope the Dems do have the balls to do that. But the Dems actually care about the country, and I think the Republicans have shown that they will go to a government shutdown and hurting vulnerable people and causing a certain amount of economic harm if they see political upside in it.
I’m confident that if it came down to the wire the Republicans would not allow an actual default; but I’m far from confident that the the Dems will actually call their bluff, that the Dems won’t cave to significant concessions before that. I do wonder if the FC might almost work in the Dems’ favor to the extent that they will obviously ask for something totally outrageous that the Dems cannot possible agree to. They FC might end up effectively calling their own bluff on default, too stupid to realize that they will force their own party to bring them into line.
I don’t know exactly what the debt ceiling is, and whether it’s just treasury securities, or if it includes all the myriad of trade payables that the government most surely takes on in the ordinary course of business. Assuming that it doesn’t, because it’s probably impossible to track that in real time given how many different agencies there are and I highly doubt there is a single system connecting all of them, then the obvious way to prevent the debt ceiling to be reached is to stop making payments on their trade payables. That’s not quite the same as defaulting on debt. The federal government probably pays most of their stuff on time, but lots of people don’t, seeing how long they can string the vendors along before actually paying their bills. The federal government can start being 1 day late on the 20th, and then be 2 days late some time later, and so on, ever increasing the amount of time they’re late paying the bills until the debt ceiling is raised and they can raise more capital. If the vendors don’t like it, they should tell Congress to get in gear.
But what is the “political upside”? Who are the GOP arguing with in this scenario?
Well, the real answer is, they’re arguing with themselves. They’re offering up two plans, one guts everything in the government, the other only guts some things in the government, and they can’t pass either of them.
Meanwhile, the Dems are sitting there eating popcorn, and telling the “moderate” GOP that they can end this all right now if they just commit to not gutting the government. The Dems have shown time and time again over the last decade that they’re willing to meet the GOP half-way, if even if “half-way” isn’t anywhere near actually being half. Failure to pass a GOP-supported bill lies entirely on the GOP, because they can’t get their own people to reach an agreement.
So we get one of three things: the GOP caves to the Dems, and you get a half-decent bill passed; one wing of the GOP caves to the other, and you get a shitty bill passed, the level of shittiness being dependent upon who caves; or you get an endless shutdown as the GOP bickers amongst themselves, and that shutdown is entirely their own fault, because they’re in charge.
We have low information voters who only listen to Fox News or worse. They are unreachable unless Fox News gets the nod. I’d hope that the fact that the GOP have pulled this stunt so many times now would make it harder to sell to potential swing voters, but I’m not confident about that.
But remember that the nominal deadline is now. Yellen has said that the hard deadline is around June - that would be the time when all possibilities of temporarily shuffling things around have simply been exhausted. I assume that already includes delaying any payments that can be delayed without serious consequences.
OK, thanks for that bit of info.
Article today. I don’t know how fair it is, but it paints the Republicans as fragmented and looking weaker against a hard line from the Dems.
Bill Dudley on the debt ceiling, prominent article on Bloomberg today, non-paywalled here:
I’m sure they will get around to passing it, especially if they only need 8 or so Republicans. Let’s say they don’t. My Mom has a not insignificant amont of money in a 401k, which she and my dad, recently passed, worked very hard to get. That could be cut in half, or even lost entirely, in a stock market crash. I know in the 2008, some people lost everything. So lets say it gets down to the last week and there is still a stalemate. What to do? Take the money ouf of the 401k and put it in a bank account? In gold? Under the mattress?
Vote Democrat.
There is an election coming up this year?
…and that’s how the run on the banks started /HoratiusTalkingToHisGrandkids
Just kidding; I don’t expect to ever have grandkids.