# De'endee Mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [July 6, 2011, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052 "2011-07-06T16:30:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 67
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1321 "2011-08-01T17:42:30Z")
Something that would be rather useful at this point would be to know if \*\*LightFoot \*\*was able to get off an investigation last Night. But I notice now that she said she might not be able to get online until Wednesday. That’s unfortunate, because she might be able to shed some light on this situation. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1322 "2011-08-01T18:10:36Z")
Regarding the idea that \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*should use his extra-voting power on someone Today in order to help demonstrate his Towniness: I don’t think it would do anything of the sort. Let’s assume for the moment that \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*is Scum and that he throws his extra votes behind \*\*LightFoot \*\*(because she’s the closest thing we have to confirmed Town). So \*\*Lightfoot \*\*makes her choice, doulbe-votes, and \*\*SF \*\*turns that into 4 votes. First off, what happens if that person isn’t lynched Today? Are we all supposed to vote for \*\*LightFoot’s \*\*choice, so that we guarantee a lynch? In that case, we absolve everyone (including **ShadowFacts** ) of responsibility for their votes because we’ve manufactured a lynch, so we know nothing. And if \*\*LightFoot’s \*\*target is not lynched, then all it tells us is that \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*was willing to take a chance that \*\*LightFoot \*\*wouldn’t both a) vote for Scum and b) get the rest of the Town fto follow her lead. So let’s say we do lynch \*\*LightFoot’s \*\*target through ‘honest voting’, and that person turns up Scum. That clears \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*as Town, right? No, it does nothing of the sort. All it proves is that the Scum were willing to risk lynching one of their own in order to hopefully buy some Town cred for **ShadowFacts**. Given that we haven’t lynched a single Scum yet, and that \*\*LightFoot \*\*has ended the Day voting for the lynch target 2 of 3 Days, I don’t have any trouble believing that the Scum would be willing to roll the dice on this, if in fact \*\*Shadowfacts \*\*is Scum. The only way that having him use his voting power is going to help clear him is if \*\*LightFoot’s \*\*target and our lynchee Today is \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*himself. And as I think it’s probable that he is Town, I’m not in favor of that plan. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1323 "2011-08-01T18:42:48Z")
Question: With all the votes on Red, what is our back up lynch if we decide NOT to lynch him? I don’t want a giant cluster bleep like the end of yesterday. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1324 "2011-08-01T18:53:17Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > Assuming \*\*Shadowfacts \*\*and **Red Skeezix** are both Town: > > 1. Red tried to kill SF last Night, but SF blocked him. > 2. Scum tried to kill LightFoot, but were prevented. > > Regarding the Scum kill: Why did they target \*\*LightFoot \*\*last Night, after passing on her Night 2 and simply blocking her? I can’t think of a good reason. There are a couple other possibilities, but I don’t like them either: > > The Scum targeted some other person, who just happened to be protected by the Doc. > The Scum failed to get in a Night action. > There is another Roleblocker, who just happened to block the Scum kill. > > None of these scenarios seems likely to me. \*Regarding the Scum kill: Why did they target \*\*LightFoot \*\*last Night, after passing on her Night 2 and simply blocking her? I can’t think of a good reason. \* Paranoid doc. She’s protected but blocked. Why try to kill her? Because eventually, she’s going to want to investigate someone, and the paranoid doc would need to release the protection to do so. > [@](#): > > Assuming \*\*ShadowFfacts \*\*and \*\*Red Skeezix \*\*are both Scum: > > 1. The Scum failed in their Night kill for some reason > 2. SF decided to bus Red right out of the gate Today for no apparent reason > > We haven’t managed to identify a single Scum yet in this game. I just don’t see them deciding to hand us **Red Skeezix** just because they were feeling sorry for us. It gets us off of ShadowFacts, makes us think Shadow is townie, and we don’t pressure Shadow to give Lightfoot the vote boost. Meaning, he will further and further control the game. > [@](#): > > Assuming **Red Skeezix** is Town and \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*is Scum: > > 1. Red tried to kill SF last Night, but SF blocked him. > 2. Scum tried to kill _someone_, but were prevented. > > We have the same problem here as we did at the top. The Scum failed in their kill: why? It’s possible that ehy decided to take a chance on **LightFoot** , figuring she wouldn’t be protected last Night, but I don’t see why they would think that. I certainly don’t see a better place for a Doc to place his protection, so chances are that an attempt on \*\*LightFoot \*\*would have been fruitless, and the Scum would know that. Paranoid doc, see first example. Lightfoot can’t investigate. Guess what? Wanna know what I have to say? **If Lightfoot was being blocked last night, that means one of two things.** 1. PARANOID DOCTOR or 1. TWO ROLEBLOCKERS. Proof. ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1325 "2011-08-01T18:58:16Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > 1. @ Pizza and Normal - hundreds of paragraphs explaining why Shadow is Scummy have NOT worked for me. Can one or both of you please post the SINGLE most scummy-looking paragraph written by Shadow and help me understand? Complicated WIFOM-chains don’t work for me; I’m looking for a fake sincerity or easy-to-understand scum-slip. The very first thing I voted him for was fake sincerity. If you didn’t buy it then I doubt you will now. If you’re looking for an easy-to-understand slip what about the discrepancy between his role claim and his claimed result on Ed that LightFoot found? (role/class vs not) My cases on non-scum usually pick up steam pretty easily (look what happened with Texcat) This one has gotten virtually no encouragement from anyone I’m reading strongly as a scum suspect (Red today excepted). That in itself feels like a slight scum tell to me (reminiscent of my struggles getting Silver Jan lynched last time out). Nobody but Lightfoot (and now me) has even brought that discrepancy up as potentially significant. Why? Scum usually love that sort of thing. On the overall appearance front, how about this: – disclaiming two of his first four votes (the other two were a me-too on my case on Kelly and a repeat vote on Silver Jan) – zero, and I mean zero, evidence of scumhunting since early day two (minus me, but see below). The pedescribe vote was useless in context (and thoroughly disclaimed at that). Day three we got Septimus and choie are not worth lynching, Texcat is maybe yes, maybe not (and a promise to look later that never materialized, only a self-preservation vote with no further comment). Day four has been nothing so far, not even an attempt at analyzing Red Skeezix’ connections. – all of that excepts his approach to me. Which was first to dismiss me, secondarily to cherry-pick my accusations for the easiest to rebut/easiest to turn back on me, and thirdly to decide I’m scum on the basis of characterizing two-of-four as “constantly” (and for refusing to let go of him). I can’t credit this as scumhunting. For you and anyone else who doubts either his scumminess or my sincerity, what looks so town about him? I see literally nothing but “his claim could be town” and “scum wouldn’t do that” regarding either bussing or framing Red Skeezix. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1326 "2011-08-01T19:01:18Z")
I just want to repeat that, because it bears repeating. **There is either a paranoid doctor in the game, or there’s proof that there are two roleblockers.** I don’t think there are two roleblockers, unless ONE OF THEM is a scumbag. Now, in this example, Shadow would be the townie roleblocker, because he wasn’t blocking our detective. Holy poop, I found something positive to say about ShadowFacts. However, I also think that the _Paranoid doctor is more likely than two roleblockers_. I think the paranoid doctor was protecting Lightfoot, explains the lack of a scum-related kill, explains Red Skeezix’s story if he’s a pro-town assassin, and backs up my theory that ShadowFacts is a role-stealing scumbag who murdered special ed, and shows that the Lords were trying to kill Lightfoot, while trying to block the doc, and just happened to get lucky and block the assassin, The assassin role, which by the way, septimus claims his role says is in the game, You know, which sorta proves that Red is the assassin he claims to be, Which if Red Skeezix flips townie, sort of proves that septimus is who he says he is… And will also prove sort of conclusively that the Lords of Slaughter were, indeed, busy attacking Lightfoot last night, which means: They were probably trying to roleblock the doctor. Which will lead to the conclusion that what i’ve been saying is true. So, if Red flips town, you will lynch ShadowFacts, right? Is anyone with me on this? Anyone? ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1327 "2011-08-01T19:02:51Z")
Bueller? Bueller? Bueller? ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1328 "2011-08-01T19:07:15Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > I had this typed up in notepad overNight but never got back here to post it. I’m posting it now ‘as-is’, without taking into consideration any of the events Today. I’ll address them in subsequent posts: > Regarding **ShadowFacts** , and whether he is Town or not, and expanding on the conversation **Inner Stickler** and I had at the beginning of the Night, I’ve come up with the following. Please tell me if I’ve gone wrong somewhere… > > Assume \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*is Scum, and that he has a Power-stealing ability. Now, in every game of Mafia I have ever played, all Night actions resolve at End of Night, immediately before Dawn. \*\*Ed \*\*was definitely alive at the end of Day 2, so he was killed during Night 2. This means that Janitor or no Janitor, the Scum didn’t know \*\*Ed’s \*\*identity until the \*end \*of Night 2, which means that **ShadowFacts** must have used his Power-stealing ability \*\*before he knew \*\*Ed **was dead**. Or simultaneous with it, but essentially correct I think. > [@](#): > > Would the Scum risk wasting a Power-stealing ability on a player with an unknown Power? _Possibly_ > Would the Scum risk wasting a Power-stealing ability on a player who may or may not have a Power to begin with, and whose Power, if it exists at all, is unknown? _Doubtful_ > Would the Scum risk wasting a Power-stealing ability on a player who isn’t even dead yet, and who may or may not have a Power to steal, and who may or may not have a Power that’s useful to Scum if indeed he had one at all and he actually dies during the Night? \* I don’t think so\* > > Now, I can think of a few ways to get around some of these issues: > > 1. The Scum could have a Role Investigator who targeted \*\*Ed \*\*on Night 1 and found out what his Power was. > 2. It could be a Day Power; \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*used it during Day 3 after the Scum received \*\*Ed’s \*\*role reveal, but before it was made known to the Town. Unlikely; day powers should resolve at dusk. > [@](#): > > 1. **ShadowFacts** ’ Power might not have been limited to stealing from the dead; perhaps he could steal any player, living or dead. Not sure what that’s supposed to have to do with anything. > [@](#): > > 1. It could be an ‘automatic’ Power; basically, it’s exactly as \*\*Shadowfacts \*\*described it, only it belongs to Scum. This is exactly what I think it is, if SF is scum. Everythign points to it. I see no reason to doubt his claimed question to Astral about scathach’s status, for instance. > [@](#): > > But these ‘solutions’ have issues of their own > > (snip 1-3 since I think they’re irrelevant) > > 1. is the best solution so far. It doesn’t require any esoteric combination of Powers; it doesn’t leave any ‘how did they know?’ questions unanswered; but it just doesn’t sound plausible to me. Why not? > [@](#): > > Occam’s Razor tells me that the most likely scenario is that \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*is telling the truth. You could argue that Point 4 here is just as plausible, I suppose. Just because I think the role sounds odd doesn’t mean it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, but I find such a role to be much more likely to be given to Town rather than Scum. Less likely is not the same thing as implausible. You said the latter but you haven’t justified it. > [@](#): > > I did also consider the fact that \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*might be 3rd-Party. This assumption suffers from the same basic problem as assuming he’s Scum: namely that he would have needed to use his Power before he knew \*\*Ed \*\*was dead. I can’t remotely see the point of this speculation, much less adding it to this already overly-reasoned post. > [@](#): > > Unfortunately, I can think of no way for \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*to prove his alignment. The only thing that could confirm him would be an investigation by the Town Cop. If \*\*Ed \*\*was the only Roleblocker in the game then \*\*LightFoot \*\*ought to be able to get off an investigation of \*\*Shadowfacts \*\*Tonight (of course, since \*\*LightFoot \*\*isn’t confirmed herself, this still doesn’t technically prove anything). I can’t even fathom what you’re trying to say here (seriously, not snarky). Can you try again? Ed didn’t roleblock Lightfoot on night one/two. Obviously he’s not the only roleblocker in the game, if you believe Lightfoot at all. ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1329 "2011-08-01T19:08:17Z")
Also, Bueller. ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1330 "2011-08-01T19:09:22Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > Something that would be rather useful at this point would be to know if \*\*LightFoot \*\*was able to get off an investigation last Night. But I notice now that she said she might not be able to get online until Wednesday. That’s unfortunate, because she might be able to shed some light on this situation. What makes you think there’s any chance she was NOT roleblocked last night? Scum vibes are rising again, SP. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1331 "2011-08-01T19:16:41Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > I had this typed up in notepad overNight but never got back here to post it. I’m posting it now ‘as-is’, without taking into consideration any of the events Today. I’ll address them in subsequent posts: > Regarding **ShadowFacts** , and whether he is Town or not, and expanding on the conversation **Inner Stickler** and I had at the beginning of the Night, I’ve come up with the following. Please tell me if I’ve gone wrong somewhere… > > Assume \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*is Scum, and that he has a Power-stealing ability. Now, in every game of Mafia I have ever played, all Night actions resolve at End of Night, immediately before Dawn. \*\*Ed \*\*was definitely alive at the end of Day 2, so he was killed during Night 2. This means that Janitor or no Janitor, the Scum didn’t know \*\*Ed’s \*\*identity until the \*end \*of Night 2, which means that **ShadowFacts** must have used his Power-stealing ability \*\*before he knew \*\*Ed **was dead**. > > Would the Scum risk wasting a Power-stealing ability on a player with an unknown Power? _Possibly_ > Would the Scum risk wasting a Power-stealing ability on a player who may or may not have a Power to begin with, and whose Power, if it exists at all, is unknown? _Doubtful_ > Would the Scum risk wasting a Power-stealing ability on a player who isn’t even dead yet, and who may or may not have a Power to steal, and who may or may not have a Power that’s useful to Scum if indeed he had one at all and he actually dies during the Night? \* I don’t think so\* > > Now, I can think of a few ways to get around some of these issues: > > 1. The Scum could have a Role Investigator who targeted \*\*Ed \*\*on Night 1 and found out what his Power was. > 2. It could be a Day Power; \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*used it during Day 3 after the Scum received \*\*Ed’s \*\*role reveal, but before it was made known to the Town. > 3. **ShadowFacts** ’ Power might not have been limited to stealing from the dead; perhaps he could steal any player, living or dead. > 4. It could be an ‘automatic’ Power; basically, it’s exactly as \*\*Shadowfacts \*\*described it, only it belongs to Scum. > > But these ‘solutions’ have issues of their own > > 1. requires that the Scum have a Role Investigator and a Power Stealer: both uncommon roles in my experience. > 2. requires that the Scum have a Janitor and a Power Stealer with a Day action. Also a rather uncommon combination, I think. > 3. gets around the ‘wasting the Power on a player who winds up not dead’ issue, but still leaves the ‘how did he know \*\*Ed \*\*had a Power to steal in the frst place’ problem. > 4. is the best solution so far. It doesn’t require any esoteric combination of Powers; it doesn’t leave any ‘how did they know?’ questions unanswered; but it just doesn’t sound plausible to me. > > Occam’s Razor tells me that the most likely scenario is that \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*is telling the truth. You could argue that Point 4 here is just as plausible, I suppose. Just because I think the role sounds odd doesn’t mean it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, but I find such a role to be much more likely to be given to Town rather than Scum. > > I did also consider the fact that \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*might be 3rd-Party. This assumption suffers from the same basic problem as assuming he’s Scum: namely that he would have needed to use his Power before he knew \*\*Ed \*\*was dead. > Unfortunately, I can think of no way for \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*to prove his alignment. The only thing that could confirm him would be an investigation by the Town Cop. If \*\*Ed \*\*was the only Roleblocker in the game then \*\*LightFoot \*\*ought to be able to get off an investigation of \*\*Shadowfacts \*\*Tonight (of course, since \*\*LightFoot \*\*isn’t confirmed herself, this still doesn’t technically prove anything). > [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > Assuming \*\*Shadowfacts \*\*and **Red Skeezix** are both Town: > > 1. Red tried to kill SF last Night, but SF blocked him. > 2. Scum tried to kill LightFoot, but were prevented. > > Regarding the Scum kill: Why did they target \*\*LightFoot \*\*last Night, after passing on her Night 2 and simply blocking her? I can’t think of a good reason. There are a couple other possibilities, but I don’t like them either: > > The Scum targeted some other person, who just happened to be protected by the Doc. > The Scum failed to get in a Night action. > There is another Roleblocker, who just happened to block the Scum kill. > > None of these scenarios seems likely to me. > > Assuming \*\*ShadowFfacts \*\*and \*\*Red Skeezix \*\*are both Scum: > > 1. The Scum failed in their Night kill for some reason > 2. SF decided to bus Red right out of the gate Today for no apparent reason > > We haven’t managed to identify a single Scum yet in this game. I just don’t see them deciding to hand us **Red Skeezix** just because they were feeling sorry for us. > > Assuming **Red Skeezix** is Town and \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*is Scum: > > 1. Red tried to kill SF last Night, but SF blocked him. > 2. Scum tried to kill _someone_, but were prevented. > > We have the same problem here as we did at the top. The Scum failed in their kill: why? It’s possible that ehy decided to take a chance on **LightFoot** , figuring she wouldn’t be protected last Night, but I don’t see why they would think that. I certainly don’t see a better place for a Doc to place his protection, so chances are that an attempt on \*\*LightFoot \*\*would have been fruitless, and the Scum would know that. > > Assuming \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*is Town and **Red Skeezix** is Scum: > > 1. Red tried to kill SF last Night, but SF blocked him. > 2. There is no Vig, or he did not act again last Night. > > This is the most likely scenario. It requires no twisted logic of leaps of faith. It does require a lucky/educated guess on **Shadowfacts** ’ part, but his explanation of his choice is plausible enough to put it in the ‘educated’ column for me. > > **vote Red Skeezix** I apologize for quoting these long posts, but I want to highlight that what **Suburban Plankton** is doing is _pro-Town analysis_ (and I don’t say this because he came to the correct conclusion :)). He is objectively considering _all options_. Compare that analysis to what, for one example, **ATPG** has been doing - the difference is striking. One is examining the possibilities and reaching a conclusion, the other has a pre-determined conclusion and is then inventing scenarios to fit that conclusion. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1332 "2011-08-01T19:17:07Z")
I would like to know if Lightfoot got an investigation result. She was not blocked on N1 and has one, and began being blocked as soon as she claimed. So that means either the scum are blocking her (Meaning Shadow is innocent) or the Paranoid Doc is protecting her and preventing action (Meaning Shadow’s guilt is still possible). If Red flips townie, I can only assume that Lightfoot is being protected by a paranoid doctor. And if so, it might be a good idea for that doctor to claim, which would reinforce the idea of Lightfoot being innocent, the doctor being innocent, Lightfoot’s investigation result person being innocent, and give us a whole lot of meat to work with to build a case on a scumbag. Of course, if Red is townie, we could sure use that assassination power. We could even have him attack septimus again to prove that septimus is the power he says he is, while preventing Red Skeezix from hurting any townies. If he’s a scumbag, he still has to not murder anyone, so all we do is get a free lynch, no murder, and then another free lynch; if he doesn’t do as he’s told, we lynch him tomorrow. Perhaps, with three known townies, we’d have a better chance of hitting one of the scumbags? Or is this not playing it safe enough for folks? Is there no way we can use these power roles to confirm each other’s stories, and have a really intelligent lynch? Like really intelligent, like a 50/50 shot at hitting a guilty person? Even if I’m talking out of my butt, Red is not going anywhere and will be lynched tomorrow! I feel like I’m going insane. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1333 "2011-08-01T19:18:13Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > I apologize for quoting these long posts, but I want to highlight that what **Suburban Plankton** is doing is _pro-Town analysis_ (and I don’t say this because he came to the correct conclusion :)). He is objectively considering _all options_. Compare that analysis to what, for one example, **ATPG** has been doing - the difference is striking. > > One is examining the possibilities and reaching a conclusion, the other has a pre-determined conclusion and is then inventing scenarios to fit that conclusion. Getting kinda tense, aintcha? ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1334 "2011-08-01T19:39:13Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > Regarding the idea that \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*should use his extra-voting power on someone Today in order to help demonstrate his Towniness: I don’t think it would do anything of the sort. > > Let’s assume for the moment that \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*is Scum and that he throws his extra votes behind \*\*LightFoot \*\*(because she’s the closest thing we have to confirmed Town). So \*\*Lightfoot \*\*makes her choice, doulbe-votes, and \*\*SF \*\*turns that into 4 votes. > > First off, what happens if that person isn’t lynched Today? Are we all supposed to vote for \*\*LightFoot’s \*\*choice, so that we guarantee a lynch? In that case, we absolve everyone (including **ShadowFacts** ) of responsibility for their votes because we’ve manufactured a lynch, so we know nothing. And if \*\*LightFoot’s \*\*target is not lynched, then all it tells us is that \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*was willing to take a chance that \*\*LightFoot \*\*wouldn’t both a) vote for Scum and b) get the rest of the Town fto follow her lead. I don’t understand this objection at all. This isn’t the piont. The point is to get some of those extra votes out of Shadow’s hands, period. Putting them in Lightfoot’s instead only gives them to a confirmed townie, but she can do with them as she will. Whether her vote choice(s) are lynched or not is beside the point. > [@](#): > > So let’s say we do lynch \*\*LightFoot’s \*\*target through ‘honest voting’, and that person turns up Scum. That clears \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*as Town, right? No, it does nothing of the sort. All it proves is that the Scum were willing to risk lynching one of their own in order to hopefully buy some Town cred for **ShadowFacts**. Of course it doesn’t clear Shadow, but why should it need to? Again, the point here is to reduce the excess voting power of someone I think is scum (without risking it being handed over to another scum), and that’s all. As I mentioned yesterday, I’d have been satisfied enough with it being given to someone whose votes were already not likely to be definitive (and weren’t going to be moved), if that could be arranged. But I don’t think it needs to be. LF may be right and she may be wrong, but at least she can be trusted to have her heart in the right place. > [@](#): > > Given that we haven’t lynched a single Scum yet, and that \*\*LightFoot \*\*has ended the Day voting for the lynch target 2 of 3 Days, I don’t have any trouble believing that the Scum would be willing to roll the dice on this, if in fact \*\*Shadowfacts \*\*is Scum. The only way that having him use his voting power is going to help clear him is if \*\*LightFoot’s \*\*target and our lynchee Today is \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*himself. And as I think it’s probable that he is Town, I’m not in favor of that plan. OK, I finally see what you’re saying, sort of. I didn’t envision SF powering up LF _after_ she’d placed her votes. I envision him doing it before she votes at all. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1335 "2011-08-01T19:41:50Z")
> [@Normal\_Phase](#): > > What makes you think there’s any chance she was NOT roleblocked last night? > > Scum vibes are rising again, SP. I’ll respond to this post first, because it’s nice and short 🙂 What makes me think there is _any chance_? Because it’s \*possible \*that there is only one roleblocker in the game and that he blocked **Red Skeezix**. Of course, this means that **Special Ed** would have to have blocked \*\*LightFoot \*\*on Night 2. I’ve been wanting to go back over \*\*Ed’s \*\*posts to see if there is anything that makes that a likely scenario, but I’ve been having issues with the @#$%\*! SDMB search “utility” (and I use that term loosely) so I haven’t yet been able to do so. And I do have to admit that I hadn’t considered the possibility of a Paranoid Doc, despite the fact that it had been mentioned previously. In any case, \*\*Lightfoot \*\*will be along eventually to tell us whether or not she was able to get a result, so it’s not like we’ll need to rely on conjecture come end of day. ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1336 "2011-08-01T19:47:20Z")
> [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > \*Regarding the Scum kill: Why did they target \*\*LightFoot \*\*last Night, after passing on her Night 2 and simply blocking her? I can’t think of a good reason. \* > > Paranoid doc. She’s protected but blocked. Oh. That could be. However, if you accept that possibility you have to also accept “both town” on Shadow and Red. which I’ll pretty much jump off a cliff myself if that’s the case. Paranoid docs are pretty rare. (both town a possibility because my main reason for thinking Shadow scum if Red is town and vice versa is there being only one visible kill atttempt last night. If in fact there’s any reason to think there could have been two, the whole thing falls apart. Agree? ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1337 "2011-08-01T19:49:39Z")
SP: There is no freaking way that Ed blocked Lightfoot. I consider that about as likely as alien bases on the moon. You are pinging me again because you’re thinking (and writing) TOO broadly, as if the very farfetched possibilities you bring up are just a smokescreen for the real ones, that you want to emphasize or dismiss, accordingly. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1338 "2011-08-01T19:55:09Z")
> [@](#): > > Occam’s Razor tells me that the most likely scenario is that ShadowFacts is telling the truth. You could argue that Point 4 here is just as plausible, I suppose. Just because I think the role sounds odd doesn’t mean it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, but I find such a role to be much more likely to be given to Town rather than Scum. This is such a terrible application of Occam’s Razor. Let me point out the fallacy. Don’t know the official term for it (I was thinking sharpshooter fallacy, but that doesn’t quite fit) but basically what Suburban Plankton just did was name a few things that weren’t plausible, then mentioned something that \*was \*plausible, and the end result is that now we think the last thing is less likely because the first three weren’t. It’s sort of the reverse of the sharpshooter fallacy actually. _Look, I missed three times! Obviously that makes the one bullet that did hit somehow less accurate._ Further, Occam’s Razor is a terrible thing to use in games of mafia, because the Mafia will claim something that they could plausibly apply Occam’s Razor to. Well, my explanation is the simplest, therefore it’s correct. For the other explanation to be correct, it would involve some coincidence. And, coincidental things are less likely to happen than say, a scumbag claiming parts of his role that are true and then using them to argue his innocence. It’s just a bad way of weighing options. Whatever the explanations could be, if any of them are plausible, and one of them is true, it’s not always the “most likely” option.\*\* Especially in a game where people are lying and are given cover roles.\*\* I find it particularly unlikely that all of these power roles are townie, especially if they keep surviving further into the game. But, we can use the truths and lies told here to our advantage. [ul] [li]Well, if \*\*Red \*\*is mafia, we can lynch him unless he hits septimus, and if he continues to fail, septimus is under no threat from Red Skeezix. And, if Red continues to do this, then the scums will have to murder him eventually because we’re not lynching him. Or, we could have him kill a specific person other than septimus. Especially if this is a person we would be lynching anyway.[/li][/ul] [ul] [li]But if \*\*Red \*\*is townie, we have a way of ensuring he kills NO TOWNIES and also poses a threat to the mafia by his very continued existence. If he’s scum he dies anyway tomorrow, and if he’s townie, we just saved ourselves from lynching a townie.[/li][/ul] [ul] [li]If \*\*septimus \*\*is mafia, then having Red attack him either kills septimus, or doesn’t kill any townies and doesn’t lynch Red, which is still better than lynching Red. Lightfoot should still scan septimus at some point, which is the main reason why I’m okay with septimus still being alive; he will probably be found innocent or lynched at some point.[/li][/ul] [ul] [li]If \*\*septimus \*\*is townie then he was telling the truth and is under no threat from Red Skeezix.[/li][/ul] [ul] [li]If \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*is townie, and Red is mafia, then the above plan neuters Red Skeezix or forces him into a very uncomfortable position, and Shadow should survive the night, because the Lords of Slaughter (Red Skeezix in this case) will be too busy murdering who we suggest, or face the lynch tomorrow.[/li][/ul] [ul] [li]If \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*is scum, then we’d be proving Red and septimus at the same time, and by default probably means that Lightfoot and her investigation target and her paranoid doctor protector are all townies. And if ShadowFacts is scum, then I also win the thread, and I’d take a long, hard look at Suburban Plankton.[/li][/ul] I’d also take a close look at folks who came out of nowhere to spare Shadow’s life at the expense of TexCat. And if y’all really think I’m a scumbag, have me be Red’s first victim. Have Shadow block me tonight, too! \*Really \*put the screws on me! 😃 I see what Shadow and Suburban Plankton are doing, and if they’re townie, great. But if either of them are scum, they’re holding up their big lie next to the truth, speaking calmly and at length, and saying “our lie is simpler than the truth, because the truth is too coincidental, Occam’s Razor, lynch your own pro-town assassin.” Sorry, I’m a bit more skeptical than that. And if I’m still wrong, there are intelligent ways of limiting the damage. I challenge you, ShadowFacts, Get rid of your extra voting power for today, and let’s put the test to Red Skeezix instead of lynching him. There’s that, or if Red Skeezix flips town, I’m going to vote for you until you die, and if I am murdered, my final wish will be your head, and I won’t regret it either way because you were unreasonably stubborn about Red Skeezix, there were some late voting shenanigans to save your life, and there was a way to prove a lot of townies’ claims while also getting additional lynches and shots at the scumbags without letting Red Skeezix get away. If that’s not reasonable or logical enough for folks, then fine. I did give it my best shot. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1339 "2011-08-01T19:56:40Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > I’ve been wanting to go back over \*\*Ed’s \*\*posts to see if there is anything that makes that a likely scenario, but I’ve been having issues with the @#$%\*! SDMB search “utility” (and I use that term loosely) so I haven’t yet been able to do so. And if I am completely off base about everything and have just generally been a useless idiot/useful idiot, then I can at least post all of special ed’s posts for you because I’m good like that. Be back in a jiffy pop. ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2011, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1340 "2011-08-01T19:58:11Z")
> [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > I would like to know if Lightfoot got an investigation result. > > She was not blocked on N1 and has one, and began being blocked as soon as she claimed. So that means either the scum are blocking her (Meaning Shadow is innocent) or the Paranoid Doc is protecting her and preventing action (Meaning Shadow’s guilt is still possible). Gah! For someone I’m on the same page with overall we sure are getting there by different processes of reasoning. I think Shadow is MORE likely to be scum if the scum are blocking her. Or I think I do anyway. I need a break from this discussion; I"m losing the plot. > [@](#): > > If Red flips townie, I can only assume that Lightfoot is being protected by a paranoid doctor. And if so, it might be a good idea for that doctor to claim, which would reinforce the idea of Lightfoot being innocent, the doctor being innocent, Lightfoot’s investigation result person being innocent, and give us a whole lot of meat to work with to build a case on a scumbag. > > Of course, if Red is townie, we could sure use that assassination power. We could even have him attack septimus again to prove that septimus is the power he says he is, while preventing Red Skeezix from hurting any townies. Septimus’ claim a) is that he will die next time, if he’s been attacked once; and b) leaves no traces in the writeup for proof, if you believe Red that he was attacked at all. > [@](#): > > Is there no way we can use these power roles to confirm each other’s stories, and have a really intelligent lynch? Like really intelligent, like a 50/50 shot at hitting a guilty person? I think we have that already, with at least one of Red or Shadow being scum unless there is a paranoid doc (which is the only strong incentive I can think of for scum to do something that migth result in a no-kill last night OTHER THAN – actually attacking Shadow; or – lending support to Shadow’s claim, depending. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052.md?page=66) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052.md?page=68)