# De'endee Mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [July 6, 2011, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052 "2011-07-06T16:30:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 72
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1421 "2011-08-03T03:15:22Z")
> [@Normal\_Phase](#): > > On the facts – Red Skeezix did not look into things closer at all. He still found SF scummy as of that post: his own statement was that he unvoted only because he was also voting Jan, found her scummier than SF, and didn’t think they were both scum together. This is not what you truly think about Red’s unvote, because it’s not remotely what he did. I’ve been burned too recently with TexCat’s “lying” to put huge stock in this by itself, but can you try again with the right facts, please? I did not say that looking into things closer meant that he found Shadow innocent. I still think he could have thought that the complaints he received from accusing Shadow based on one post were reasonable complaints and so decided to review Shadow’s overall posting history. Whether he finds Shadow scummy or not doesn’t really affect my view of the situation. He never claimed his review of Shadow’s posts was the reason for changing his vote. I feel a little silly defending Red here, since I am leaning toward him being scum now, but this is in the context of when I was first reviewing him. And I realize now after writing all this, that I was answering the wrong question to begin with. As far as his actual unvote, I don’t know why I should have a problem with that. If he felt Jan was scummier, I see no reason he shouldn’t change his vote. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1422 "2011-08-03T03:17:26Z")
> [@Weedy](#): > > I’m sorry, I was getting frustrated. This game is already quite complicated, what with all the interactions between, you, NP, SF, RS, SP, and Septimus, both actual and presumptive (i.e. who is scum trying to frame the others). Lynching Red Skeezix seems likely to give us some solid information, such as his alignment and role, and you seem to want to replace that with more questions. I guess it’s strategy, but you have lost me. > > Which one is the current plan, again? Lynch Red Skeezix, or not? Which plan, my plan? Right now I’d love to see Red Skeezix vig-kill either Suburban Plankton or septimus. He’s probably leaning septimus, I’m leaning Suburban Plankton. Meanwhile, I’d suggest blocking or scanning Normal Phase, just because I need to know if she’s trustworthy enough to lead this discussion after I die. And then either blocking or scanning choie or USCDiver, leaning Diver, and leaning block on him and scan on Normal Phase. I’d like to lynch ShadowFacts or Suburban Plankton today, failing that, septimus or Diver. I’d like to follow up with a lynch on Suburban Plankton, septimus, or Diver tomorrow. I’d like to lynch Red Skeezix the moment he doesn’t vig who we say, or if septimus and/or ShadowFacts turn up townie. But that’s my plan. My plan is not the popular plan. My plan is not likely to happen. > [@](#): > > Because what happened to the nightkill? Maybe I am just being hopeful, but I think it’s more likely that scum set up a frame job than that they coincidentally ran into the Doc the same night that Shadowfacts blocked Red Skeezix. Why? They’re going to want Lightfoot dead and there’s a 50/50 shot she’s being protected at night by the paranoid doc if there is one. But sure, they could have also tried to frame someone, I guess. > [@](#): > > A vig with a hunch can kill the claimed cop, and that’s a good thing? If the “cop” is guilty, then… yeah, that’s a really good thing. > [@](#): > > Aren’t we hoping to be better than random at lynching? Sure, that’s why I keep putting people up as my top suspects to be discussed by others, offering to vote for said people, giving reasons why they should die, and asking others to do the same thing. But I’ll take a random vig at this point if the vigilante has no idea what to do. I think the vigilante should have a fair idea what to do though. > [@](#): > > I thought the point of lynching was to see what people said and who they voted for, and that was the pay-off for the all the dead Townies. Vig kills don’t leave any records. This one seems particularly random, since a vig would presumably wait till they felt reasonably confident before they killed someone (depending on the person as to how confident), but your plan requires the lynchee to order a kill no matter how confident in their suspicions they feel. Oh. Well, they could defer judgment onto the vigilante if they don’t want to pick. Was kinda hoping for some support from my fellow townies on finger pointing, though, because I’d prefer a townie ordering a lynch than everyone suffocating under the weight of true and false pro-town claims and the slings and arrows of political vulnerability when trying to select folks to be lynched. ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1423 "2011-08-03T03:40:15Z")
Also Normal, I am not ignoring the case you made against me based on the septimus voting, but frankly, on some of that I was just plain wrong on my assumptions and I am having a hard time remembering what I was thinking at each step. When I came on at the end of the Day and did not change my vote from him, though, I was strongly suspecting he was scum because of the very end of Day save he did (especially without explanation) and that his claim could easily be a fairly safe scum cover. As I said earlier, if I had had time to think it over, I think I would have switched my vote to Shadow, but that is neither here nor there in regards to septimus. If I can sort out and remember what I was thinking earlier I will try to justify my earlier statements, even though they may be based on faulty premises or reasoning. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1424 "2011-08-03T03:43:54Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > A few thoughts regarding some of \*\*Askthepizzaguy’s \*\*recent posts: > > Oooh, a magic bag in a DnD-themed game. Who woulda thunk it? > > You got anything else in your bag of holding there, **Askthepizzaguy**? Come chat with me when there’s some substance behind what you’re saying. > [@](#): > > \ > > So all you need is evidence that \*\*Shadowfacts \*\*has a power, and that will be enough for you? Enough for what? How exactly does it tell us anything about \*\*Shadowfacts \*\*if he charges \*\*LightFoot’s \*\*vote? Looks like you didn’t read the context of that discussion at all. If you had, you’d be able to answer these questions. If you were \*really \*curious, then you’d just ask me. It wouldn’t be a lousy preamble for a vote disguised as a legitimate question. > [@](#): > > What you appear to be saying here is that you think it’s more likely for **ShadowFacts** ’ claim to be true than it is to be a falsification, but you think he’s Scum anyway. Are you just hedging your bets because you really have no idea, or are you trying to cover your ass in case **ShadowFacts** flips Town at some point? No, because if I were, I wouldn’t be trying to make him dead as soon as possible, and wouldn’t have been trying to make him dead as soon as possible for a while now. That would bring the results of my error, if it is an error, down upon my head even faster. What you consider ass-covering behavior doesn’t fit any definition I’m aware of. > [@](#): > > Except that he has already told us that he thinks \*\*Septimus \*\*is ‘Vig bait’, so he probably won’t be going there again assuming you believe **Red Skeezix** claim, which you purport to do) > Oh, so it’s OK if we go ahead and lynch \*\*Red \*\*Today. How does it feel up there on top of that fence? Nuance eludes you. \*If \*you were to lynch Red Skeezix, you’d do it now. Why? Because if he’s scum, he needs to die, and sooner is better than later. If he’s townie, then you may yet still have time to recover from the error. Though that time is quite short. However, I believe Red Skeezix’ tale is more likely the case than not the case. I believe that folks other than Red Skeezix need to die. I’ve voted for those people and said why. \*If \*you’re going to do an action I disagree with and think is bad, \*then \*here are my thoughts on it. Of course, \*\*nuance \*\*doesn’t get factored in when you’re just throwing poop at pizzaguy’s wall to try to make it stick. As such, I don’t feel you’ve given my words any credit, weren’t listening, not even trying to view me as anything but a target. As such, I can’t work with you, and my previous suspicion only increases, because it implies your motive is not pure. > [@](#): > > Unless \*\*Red \*\*is Scum, in which case we learn absolutely nothing, and \*\*Red \*\*gets a free pass. It really doesn’t matter anyway, because there’s no way we will get a consensus on \*\*Red’s \*\*target for the Night. Such a plan has never been workable in the past, and I see no reason to believe it would work now. Maybe things are different where you come from, but that would surprise me. In spite of your pessimism, I am optimistic, and I believe in Red Skeezix pulling off something nice and devastating to the Lords of Slaughter if given a chance. Because he’s going to die either way, unless he does. And, I’m inclined to give someone a chance, especially when the situation has been presented as so obvious that he has to die, at this stage of the game. Because I tell you what, I don’t like going with the flow and just letting only the most obvious suspects die. I am doing what I’ve done on several rounds now, disagreed with the candidate for the lynch. Even though I had some suspicion on TexCat, which I later downgraded a bit, I still felt other suspects were better. I felt other suspects were better every round of the game so far. Why? Because I like hearing myself talk? Or is it because I’m trying to find scum? You decide. But wait, you’ve already decided. You chose wrong. Time to die. > [@](#): > > This is a useless, empty statement. It’s arguable true, but so what? You can say this on almost any Day in any Game, and it’s just as true. “Now” is always the best time for Town, because Scum haven’t ahd a chacne to kill any more of us yet. You sound like you’re trying to be very helpful here, but you’re really not saying anything at all. > > You’ve spent a good part of the game talking a lot but saying very little. You seem to be trying to come across as ‘helpful’, albeit in a very bizarre, in-your-face aggressive way. But when you boil it down, I can’t see where you’ve really provided that much ‘help’ at all. > > Ah, the hell with it. My main argument against you being Scum has been no Scum would act \*that \*Scummy…but you are a Stranger in a Strange Land…maybe I just don’t grok you yet. Or, to put it differently, “Enough is too much!” > > **vote Askthepizzaguy** I keep expecting Jon Lovitz to poke his head into my screen and say “acting!” I want to hear some **tales of ribaldry** before I die. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1425 "2011-08-03T03:56:46Z")
> [@Normal\_Phase](#): > > You’re just such a guilty-looking townie, Pizza. I swear the first time you pull the reverse expectations gambit on me I’m going to stay off the internets for a week. Then I shall never be able to pull such a gambit, it would hurt me too much. I do wish you wouldn’t tie my hands… like that. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1426 "2011-08-03T04:01:20Z")
**MentalGuy** , who are your top 4 suspects at the moment, and why if you could please? ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1427 "2011-08-03T04:34:47Z")
[quote=“ShadowFacts, post:1410, topic:588052”] You know, it’s so obvious to me that **Red** is lying, it blows my mind that others are giving him credence. So I’ll lay it out. To believe that **Red Skeezix** is Town claiming truthfully, all of the following must be true: [ul] [li] **Red** was unable to kill _three nights in a row_. (Once because he “missed the deadline.”) Three in a row!![/ul][/li][/QUOTE] I’ve observed that Red Skeezix goes inactive between posts for a much longer period than the standard player. Nights are much shorter than days. If he had posted after the first lynch and before the end of the first night, then yeah, it would be odd. I could take a look at that. The second one makes sense because of the septimus situation and the fact that they’ve both verified the powers of the other… septimus says there is an assassin in the game, and Skeezix has not been counterclaimed. And, Skeezix admits he attacked septimus, so he has confirmed that septimus was either being protected (and therefore, a SCUMBAG) or he is bulletproof as he said. Skeezix has said he has reason to believe that’s not the case, and I believe he believes that. I would want him to clarify with the game host privately to be absolutely sure “he was protected” means he was protected by someone else, rather than “he self-protected”, because saying he self-protected is a bit too much info for the game host to probably be revealing. It’s not an investigation he’s doing, it’s a hit. The third one makes even more sense, and they’ve both verified that’s what they were doing last night. [QUOTE] AND [ul][li]Someone protected **septimus** on Night Two, after **Lightfoot** claimed Detective. [/ul][/li][/QUOTE] Either a misinterpretation of the result PM from the host, or septimus is scum. > [@](#): > > AND > [ul][li]Two kill attempts were thwarted last night (or scum decided to no-kill).[/li][/ul] Both are very real possibilities. > [@](#): > > I don’t think I’m being controversial in saying that all of those things \*must be true \*in order to believe **Red’s** claim. Now, ask yourself: is it more likely that all of that is true and I am lying, or is it more likely that I simply used the powers I claimed to block a scum kill? (Remember, **Red** says he was blocked). That simple question is what toDay’s lynch comes down to, despite all the smoke and mirrors. All of those things could be true, and you could be scum or townie in both cases. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1428 "2011-08-03T04:41:25Z")
> [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > Sorry for the delay, I’m posting this at work from my phone. On review, Red Skeezix’ longest absence from the game was between before the first night and the middle of the second day. He was gone for several days in a row. As such, there’s no conclusive evidence that he is lying about missing N1. Note: this is not evidence in favor of his innocence, but it is a lack of evidence that he’s lying about his missing N1 action. That means his tale, true or false, is at least consistent with the data. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1429 "2011-08-03T04:52:57Z")
This is exactly what needs to be done. Re-reading Red Skeezix’ posts from the whole game, which takes all of 10 minutes TOPS, I can see he’s breadcrumbing, hitting the guys who should have been lynched that day, and that he immediately votes septimus for faking his claim. So you know what? Let’s find out. **unvote: ShadowFacts vote: Septimus** Because you guys aren’t going to lynch ShadowFacts. And, there’s at least some data showing ShadowFacts was occupado last night. Scum or not, I want to hit the guy who was \*not \*occupado last night. Here’s what I’m thinking: Red Skeezix is not mafia with ShadowFacts or septimus. I’d have to look at Suburban Plankton as a possible partner though, as his flip-floppery could indicate that I’m being boneheaded by defending Skeezix, but I’m also the biggest lynch alternative, so there are times when I’m a useful idiot and times when I’m a useful lynch alternative. I could look further into who Red is mafia with, but I want to examine something else for the moment: **septimus** : Lord of Slaughter, busy killing peeps. **someone else** : Lord of Slaughter, protecting septimus, explaining why he was “protected” on a night when the cop should have been protected instead. A scum doctor. **someone else** : Lord of Slaughter, roleblocking the cop [alternatively, paranoid doc blocks the cop, and ShadowFacts is roleblocking the assassin] **If I look at the data for the day septimus nearly got lynched, and the day afterward where I provided them an opportunity to spare his ass, let’s see who flinches.** ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1430 "2011-08-03T05:10:07Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Since I know that I’m a Townie, my only course is very clear. > > **Unvote: AskthePizzaGuy** > **Vote: SilverJan** > **Vote: SilverJan** Let’s see, here was the \*\*literal \*\*last minute save by [del]septiscum[/del] septimus. Scroll back and see what… > [@](#): > > **Septimus (6): Askthepizzaguy, Askthepizzaguy, Normal Phase, special ed, Normal Phase, special ed** > Silver Jan (5): Choie, Suburban Plankton, Red Skeezix, Inner Stickler, Weedy > Askthepizzaguy (4): pedescribe, pedescribe, Septimus, USCDiver > special ed (3): Silver Jan, Silver Jan, Texcat > Normal Phase (3): Choie, gnarlycharlie, ShadowFacts > ShadowFacts (2): Hirka T’Bawa, Hirka T’Bawa > USCDiver (2): gnarlycharlie, Lightfoot > Hirka T’Bawa (replacing Koldanar) (2): Mental Guy, LightFoot > MentalGuy (1): Stanislaus > gnarlycharlie (1): Mental Guy > TexCat (1): Suburban Plankton > pedescribe (1): ShadowFacts > > With these votes, Septimus would be lynched. Day ends in roughly 10 minutes. Please check for any mistakes. _Septimus (6): Askthepizzaguy, Askthepizzaguy, Normal Phase, special ed, Normal Phase, special ed_ Let’s see. Who do I find on this list which really makes me grin? Why, it’s **SPECIAL ED**. The guy who got kill-ified. :eek: How coincidental he was voting for \*\*septimus \*\*and then he went and got died-ed. :mad: Normal Phase is obviously not scum with septimus, nor am I. And obviously special ed was not, either. _Silver Jan (5): Choie, Suburban Plankton, Red Skeezix, Inner Stickler, Weedy_ Why, it’s top suspect\*\* Suburban Plankton\*\*, other somewhat suspect **choie** , who is doing absolutely nothing constructive this round, then we have Red Skeezix who is definitely not mafia with septimus, and we have\*\* Inner Stickler \*\*and **Weedy**. Now, Inner Stickler and Weedy, I’ve refrained from commenting on very much, for strategic reasons. I’m betting at least one of them is townie, possibly both. Maybe SP is townie. Maybe choie is townie. But of those on the Jan wagon,\*\* methinks Red Skeezix is the one who is definitely not associated with septimus.\*\* _Askthepizzaguy (4): pedescribe, pedescribe, Septimus, USCDiver_ There’s septimus before his vote switch, and Diver who I’ve grown less and less convinced is townie for his opportunistic votes and lack of pro-town discussion material. pedescribe who is inactive as a doornail and silly to double-vote me, I am thinking is just a bad, bad, bad, bad, bad townie. But wouldn’t mind seeing him go at some point, when other suspects are dead. So let’s put these names on my mental chalkboard for a second, like a paranoid Glenn Beck (redundant) and see if I can’t see all the connections like a pro. [QUOTE=Pizza’s mental blackboard] \*\*septimus \*\*(Scum extraordinaire) **Suburban Plankton** (scumbuddy extraordinaire) \*\*Diver \*\*(scum associate extraordinaire) **choie** - mehbe **Stickler** - mehbe **Weedy** - mehbe **pedescribe** - nah, don’t think so [/QUOTE] Now, let’s look at the whole scenario from the day after. But, it only counts after I’ve made a big stink of looking for suspects BESIDES septimus. Who of these names jumped at the opportunity? Anyone? Bueller? **Continued…** ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1431 "2011-08-03T05:19:51Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > To believe that **Red Skeezix** is Town claiming truthfully, all of the following must be true: > [ul] > [li] **Red** was unable to kill _three nights in a row_. (Once because he “missed the deadline.”) Three in a row!![/ul][/li]AND > [ul][li]Someone protected **septimus** on Night Two, after **Lightfoot** claimed Detective. [/ul][/li]AND > [ul][li]Two kill attempts were thwarted last night (or scum decided to no-kill).[/li][/ul] All of this is wrong. For the Town Vig to miss on Night 1 doesn’t surprise me; there’s too little information to fire blindly. “missed the deadline” might be a euphemism for “dithered in fear of killing a Townie.” Who protected Septimus on Night Two? 😕 Septimus is immune to the first Bullet; have you been skimming? As for two kill attempts being thwarted last Night, it sounds like you’re unfamiliar with the “probability paradox” associated with the airplane bomb: > [@](#): > > I always take a bomb with me when I fly. The chance of a bomb on-board is 1 in 10,000, so the chances of two bombs are 1 in 100,000,000. You can’t use the unlikelihood of something you already know to be true to assess the unlikelihood of something else. I’ll admit that I’m changing my mind in this game. I’ve been defending Shadow, thinking at least one of Pizza or Normal is Scum. Yet I don’t see any obvious Scum insincerity from Pizza or Normal, and they’ve surprised me by pursuing lines that Scum wouldn’t. This could all be super-WIFOM, but a number of things, especially Shadow’s faulty analyses above, makes me wonder if I’ve been wrong all along. With **ShadowFacts** unwilling to submit to requested “proofs” and with no Town Vig counterclaiming Red, the possibility of Scum Shadow is growing strong in my own mind. One thing is clear: if Shadow really is Scum with the quadruple-voting power, his advantage will grow rapidly. If we misLynch toDay and suffer an NK toNight, we’ll have lost four votes altogether, and Shadow may truly be unLynchable. Pizza has proposed a plan where Shadow gets Lynched toDay, first specifying a Lynch target for toMorrow. If Shadow does flip Town, we Lynch Red toMorrow. If we do this we either get 1 Scum for 1 Lynch or, if Shadow is Town after all, I think the whole scum house-of-cards may begin to fall apart. Until the logic errors above, I was getting no clear “pings” from Shadow. But I’m also getting no strong pings from anyone else. The argument that Scum Shadow must be Lynched before he becomes unLynchable seems strong to me. (I’m almost suspicious of Shadow’s detractors because they aren’t double-voting Shadow yet. :dubious: ) ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 6:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1432 "2011-08-03T06:01:30Z")
> [@choie](#): > > Well, rats. I’m sorry to learn that **Silver Jan** was a goodie after all, and regret my part in having voted for her. I do think she played wildly and anti-Townesque, but apparently the canard “methinks she doth protest too much” someimes ain’t true. Sometimes you protest too damn much because you’re actually innocent. Who knew? 🙂 > SNIP Okay I lied, let’s look directly afterward and make sure we don’t miss anything. IMMEDIATELY choie comes up and says she doesn’t think septimus is scummy for what he died. Which pinged me as odd for a newbie to say against all veteran reasoning, but fine. _Then I launched into a big analysis about how wrong she was acting, and then her activity level dropped off the freaking planet._ Do you see why I find this a little… coincidental? > [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > I dunno. This post reeks of talking out of both sides of your mouth. We lynch pizza and he’s town, well, gee guys, I told you he was, too bad he just couldn’t help from making himself a target. We lynch pizza and he’s scum, well whaddaya know, he was trying to play us, tsk tsk, how sad. I don’t have any trouble believing this was a backhanded attempt to get people to vote pizzaguy. \*\*Stickler \*\*agrees that \*\*Suburban \*\*is double-talking Pizza. Something SP just accused me of regarding Red Skeezix. Projecting? I like Stickler for some of these sorts of posts. Not sure if scum. However, scum do like to play devils’ advocate and disagree with one another. I’d be more convinced if I saw more concrete evidence that Stickler really thought SP was scum. So, my eye is on septimus, Stickler, choie, and SP. > [@Weedy](#): > > I’m a bit disturbed by all the last minute voting, and Septimus’s timing being held against him. I’m pretty sure he said he was in Thailand. I’m not sure what the time zone is there, but I think Day’s End was early in the morning. It was at 9 a.m. for me and I am in Australia, a few hours ahead. I always wake up to a bunch of stuff having happened. What if he just woke up? **Weedy** , like choie, defends the timing. So, my eye is on septimus, Stickler, choie, Weedy, and SP. > [@gnarlycharlie](#): > > hi all. my dad just had a kidney transplant today. it was quite sudden. he had to have it hours after a match was found. i won’t be around much and not mentally focused for the next couple of days. unrelated, but gnarly seems completely indifferent to the in-game events, doesn’t even comment on them. I find this townie. Only the scums would really be flinching at septimus’ near-death. > [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > Why are you waiting? If you happen to wake up dead Tomorrow, then you won’t have a chance to explain anything. If you have some useful information, why not share it now, while you know you have a chance to do so? Is this distancing? > [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > Ah but this way, he can make a town vig question whether it’s better to vig him tonight or let him go another day. Mentions a vigilante. Interesting because there’s been no evidence to date of there being a vigilante, until later on in the game. **Who would know there’s a vigilante in the game? Scums with the ability to protect other scums. The only purpose for this is… to defend against…** Say it with me. An assassin. Next day begins, and Hirka, Normal, Stickler all vote septimus right away. Stickler presses him on the claim. > [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > We shouldn’t need to ask for a role claim. You should have provided one, probably once 2 people had locked in votes for you, definitely by 3. Role claim now, please. SP replies: > [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > \*\*Septimus \*\*does have a point regarding the end of the Day. > > SNIP And Stickler responds: > [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > I still had a free vote Yesterday and I was around. I’ll bet I wasn’t the only one. I don’t know why he thought if he posted at the EOD he’d only be talking to Ed, Pizza and Normal. I get mixed signals on Stickler then. I think he could be distancing or bussing, but I also get some signals he’s townie due to the above quote. > [@Stanislaus](#): > > I’ve got a certain amount of sympathy for septimus’s point that he wasn’t about to argue his way out of locked in votes. It’s true as far as it goes. But he’d spent the whole day in close contention for the lynch - he should have made his position a lot clearer before the very last minute. I know I said power roles should try to argue their way out of votes first, but I didn’t even see him do that very much. It looks like he was always planning to wriggle out at the last minute. > \*\* > vote septimus\*\* I like it. > [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > **Septimus** - > > Assume for the moment we know each other are innocent. But you also assume that you will be dead shortly. Now, I ask you to give me **4 names**. These are the names of people you believe are most likely to be the Lords of Slaughter. Name these names, and give reasons if possible. And the point of all this, ladies and gentlemen, is to not just lynch septimus. Because, you give him a chance to escape, who is going to agree with it? His buddies. > [@Weedy](#): > > I was waiting for a post from Septimus, but now that I’ve seen it, I’m not much the wiser. I have every sympathy for the End of Day issue, because time zone differences suck, but that’s the way it is. Besides, it seems like you were awake then, and deliberately chose to vote at the last minute. I would like to know what is going on with all your hinting at something. I hope you are just scum trying to confuse the issue, and not actually the Doc. Weedy doesn’t lay down a vote. _This is when I start attacking choie. There’s a lot of noise because of that, so I’ll try to filter that out._ > [@Weedy](#): > > Sorry, I did not mean that personally. Just that it would be less than great to have the Doc and the Cop both outed already. Instead I see you have claimed something else entirely, which I will have to think through, along with ATPG’s case on choie, which is kinda massive. > > ATPG, can you give me a Cliff notes version? You think she is not actually a newbie, or she is playing up her newbie status excessively to … I got lost, at this point. Attack you? Weedy doesn’t want to vote for choie either. > [@Weedy](#): > > All right, I will re-read choie (but not till tomorrow, because it is late here). Weedy doesn’t vote here either. Let’s see if and when he does. > [@choie](#): > > Well, anyway, this is my initial defense. Yep, it’s haphazard, emotional, apologetic, somewhat snarky, curious, and rambling. In other words, status quo. choie doesn’t lay down a vote either. But to be fair, she was defending and could have been distracted. Weedy doesn’t really have an excuse. He seems to be stalling. > [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > \*\*Askthepizzaguy’s \*\*case on \*\*choie \*\*is worth a closer look. I had similar feelings about her on Day 2, and had voted her at one time, but I later decided it wa no longer worthy of a vote. I need to go back and figure out why I thought that. > > Regarding **Septimus** ’ claim, I’d call his role ‘Scotsman’ rather than ‘Bulletproof’. I’ll admit I hadn’t considered that as a possibilty when he was hinting at his role. I find his late action less justifiable given his current claim than I did when I thought he was claiming a more ‘active’ Power. Suburban Plankton seems to be actively defending septimus, and bussing choie instead. Indications favor Suburban Plankton being scum with septimus, and choie being the viable townie alternative lynch. > [@Weedy](#): > > Septimus: Given his claim, his behaviour yesterday makes sense to me. It seems to me that his claim is testable by vig, but there’s a lot of ifs there. > > Choie: I agree with ATPG that choie is very uneven, and very defensive. Could be newbie nerves. I think her taunting of Silver Jan was a bit odd. She must have been much surer of her case than I usually am. Or it could be scum gloating. > > tentatively:\*\* vote choie\*\* > > At this point, I am also going to > **vote pedescribe**. > > Yesterday, he parked two votes early on, and then disappeared. I would like to see something a bit more constructive from him today. > > Still need to poke around a bit more, when I have time later. Indications favor Suburban Plankton and/or Weedy being scum with septimus, and choie and pedescribe being the viable townie alternative lynch. > [@Hirka\_T\_Bawa](#): > > I do agree with this, from the mafia Wiki’s I’ve read, most mods sent a message saying something like “a bullet hit your vest” or whatever. If he doesn’t know for sure, that makes me hesident that he was targeted… Now, that could mean: > > 1. The vig didn’t target him for some reason > 2. He is lying about his claim > 3. Opal used some sort of power on him (sorry, couldn’t resist) > 4. We might not have a vig to target him in the first place > 5. He might be some sort of other power role, and is using bullet proof as a cover > 6. He is scum, trying to get away with trying to save himself at the last second yesterday. > > He posted his vote at 6:59pm yesterday, the literal last second. That makes me highly suspicious. If he was telling the truth, and just saw the change in votes, and posted after watching a DVD, I wouldn’t expect the change of vote to be EXACTLY at 6:59… if it was at 6:55, or even 6:58, I might give him the benefit of the doubt… But, 6:59? That to me looks like he was watching the clock before hitting submit, and to me, that is scummy. My vote stands. Hirka is not scum with septimus. > [@choie](#): > > Possible? Crazy? > > What the heck. I voted for her on Day Two, and I’m gonna renew it. > > **vote Normal Phase** Choie probably not scum with septimus. \*Clearly \*not scum with Normal. > [@gnarlycharlie](#): > > hi all. thanks for all your kind words. my dad’s making a strong recovery and should be out of the hospital by the end of the week. i’m now in the process of catching up. > > offhand, i see **Pizza** has made what i would consider the Berlin Wall of WOWs. i’m not ready to call it the Great Wall of China of WOWs because i suspect he’s made longer ones. 😃 > > good think you didn’t accuse **Choie** of being a coached newbie scum. you can get lynched for that. :eek: Again no real comment from charlie on the septimus fiasco. I believe he’s completely out of the loop, not involved. Townie read. _This is when I did a massive thing where I pointed out who said whose name in number of posts._ > [@Normal\_Phase](#): > > Why? Click the arrow, read the context. I agree, why? > [@Stanislaus](#): > > [oog] Glad your Dad’s recovering well, gnarly![/oog] > > Normal, I was nodding along with the bulk of your last post to septimus, right until you got to your conclusion. I think he’s scum. > > septimus has: evaded the case against him; gone out of his to way to manipulate the vote to save himself; produced an unverifiable roleclaim. (Particularly the way he not only doesn’t know who attacked him - common with Scotsman roles - but doesn’t even know if _he’s used his power_). These are all strong scum traits, but I can see how you could tag them as PFK. For me the most damning thing is that scum evidently didn’t feel the need to attack him.\* If he were not scum, and had gone to such lengths to save himself, why would they not target him? Either they’re astonishingly paranoid or somehow didn’t think he was the most likely town power role out there. > > But on a more general note, after I got fooled by a PFK claim last game, I’ve pretty much given up on the idea of trying to separate out PFKs. On sheer numbers, you’re more likely to find scum than PFK and there’s a bigger downside than upside to letting your suspect live a few Days longer. (E.g in this instance, if septimus is a scum blocker we lose N Days of results from Lightfoot). “Kill 'em all and let the mod sort 'em out” is my new motto. > > \*Unless they did and someone else killed special ed? But down this path of empty speculation lies madness. Stan is not keen on letting septimus go. Townie read, as always since my true analysis of him. > [@gnarlycharlie](#): > > **Pizza** , your post on **Choie** was very detailed and very convincing. i’m rather confused as why you seem to be trying to convince yourself that she might be town. > > as for **Septimus** ’s claim, i’m rather wary. Bulletproof is a great hiding place. it will be difficult to counterclaim and would explain why he isn’t NKd. i seem to recall a game i read that discussed this but can’t remember which. ☹ i acknowledge that he might be a PFK and we need to find scum but his last minute vote and his claim is just too much to believe. > > **Vote Septimus** > > also, i went through **MentalGuy** ’s posts before voting for me. here’s what i found. > > discussing game mechanics and commenting on **pedescribe** ’s vote. > discussing game mechanics again and voting in agreement to case made by someone else. > more agreement and changes vote due to a case made by someone else. > discusses more mechanics and possible communication between scum. > comments on possible scum tactics. > agreeing with another case. > trying to unvote. > finally unvoting. > commenting on vote count. > > you’re welcome. 😛 > > do his posts scream scum to me? no. but accusing me doing something he is doing himself and voting me for it does. at first, i felt **Normal** was taking advantage of MentalGuy’s vote to join in. however, seeing her posts, i feel she is town and may have just taken **MentalGuy** ’s posts at face value. > > i’m also suspicious of **USCDiver** for his vote on Pizza after saying earlier he thought **Pizza** was town but for now: > > **Vote MentalGuy** > > as a post script i see people are more comfortable with using both their votes, including me. piles on septimus, doesn’t even try to let him go. Again, townie read. And he’s even going after his own friggin suspect, MentalGuy. Townie, townie, TOWN TOWN TOWN. (if septimus is scum) > [@MentalGuy](#): > > I want to apologize for disappearing for a while. Over the weekend it was just general busyness with the family, but I did get a couple of opportunities to read and get caught up. Starting today, though, I am at a conference and will really only be able to play in the evening (and just as I write that we have a fire alarm in the hotel). > > As the Day started, I was leaning towards the view that Pizza was scum that was doing a really good job playing us. This was based on his defense of Jan (I didn’t vote for Jan, but I had almost changed my mind about her and there is no way I could have went through all her posts like Pizza did and not found more scummy about her), and what I thought was a bussing of septimus (we have seen Pizza likes to play in an unorthodox manner and I have no reason to think he would not do that as scum). But based on what he has done toDay, I have to say, if he is scum, he is the hardest working scum I have ever seen. > > I find it very unlikely that septimus would not have been targeted by either scum or a vig. The fact that he does not know whether he was targeted makes me suspect he is not Town. > > **vote septimus** > Honestly, I have only done a quick read of the posts made today. I don’t really buy into Pizza’s original case on choie, but some of the things others pointed out did make me feel suspicious. I need to go back and look at that in more depth, though, before I ready to vote for her. > > I do agree with Pizza that some of the scum are likely to be in the low volume posters (and yes, I realize that I am in that set of players). Gnarlycharlie has a perfectly valid reason for not being around much yesterDay, but his Day 1 play that I voted for is still there and I feel that he misrepresented my play in his review of me. > > **vote Gnarlycharlie** MentalGuy reads as unperturbed by the septimus fiasco. And townie. > [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > What has he done Today that says “Town”? He’s certainly spent a great deal of time doing statistical research, but to what end? He has provided us with scads of data, but how is that “Townie”? It’s just _data_; there is no relative ‘good-or-badness’ to it. > There is no evidence at this point that we have a Vig. We’ve had three deaths in three Nights. As for the Scum not targeting him; given the reaction overNight to his last minute vote I can see the Scum figuring that Town would do their dirty work for them. > > The fact that he does not know if he was targeted is a bit troublesome, but if in fact he was _not_ targeted, that would explain his ignorance. Plankton is CLEARLY distressed by my behavior. > [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > I’m going to eat you for breakfast, ser Plankton. Nom nom nom nom. > > Better kill me before I nail all your mafia buddies. 😃 A meaningless taunt. > [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > See, the problem is that I can never tell when you’re joking, and when you’re not. I guess that means you’re doing it right 🙂 > > But my issue here was more with \*\*MentalGuy \*\*than with you. If he was leaning Scum on you at the beginning of the Day, I fail to see how the posts you have made Today should have changed that opinion. There’s nothing necessarily \*wrong \*with what you have posted, but I don’t see anything that’s objectively \*right \*about it either. > > All of the ‘data dump’ posts are neutral when it comes to Scum hunting. I’ve seen plenty of Town players collecting and sharing data for the benefit of the Town, but I’ve seen plenty of Scum players doing exactly the same thing. So when \*\*MentalGuy \*\*says that your hard work makes you seem less likely to be Scum, I can’t agree. He actually reacts to the taunt, and spends almost all his time today discussing alternatives to septimus. What. A. Scum. > [@septimus](#): > > I’ve wondered whether statistical analyses could help Scum hunt. (Perhaps it’s even as simple as some posters using adverbs more when Town, but switching to adjectives when Scum! :D) > So I was intrigued by ATPG’s suggestion of statistical analysis. > > SNIP > > My own scum-hunting? > > 1. I certainly agree with ATPG that Scum may be hiding among the quiet; I have one candidate in mind particularly there. > 2. I’ve been re-reading and re-reading the discussion between Normal Phase and ShadowFacts, going around and around, changing my mind. The only firm conclusion I will offer now is that I strongly doubt that both are Scum! > 3. Similarly, both ATPG and, again, Normal are high on my suspect list, in part because they seek to dominate the Town agenda. But again I strongly doubt that both are Scum. > > ETA: Yes I know these brief comments are not cases. Soon I’ll post my own (small!) Wall of Words! He takes my data and tries to direct the discussion towards the quiet folks. Mentions a lot of other names but doesn’t take a strong stance on them. Smells of a caught mafioso trying not to further inflame anyone, but desperate to talk about others as suspects. TO BE CONTINUED… ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1433 "2011-08-03T06:02:59Z")
> [@LightFoot](#): > > @ \*\*Askthepizzaguy \*\* I find your recent analysis reasonable and (to me) helpful. > > I’m unable to track your vehemence (not the right word) at \*\* Normal\*\* Why are you so adamant that \*\* Normal \*\*should not survive ? > > On the one hand I see where a player that ‘sounds’ uber Town helpful and sane and wearing a LoS costume under the Townsperson hat is a threat to us. > > On the other foot if \*\* Normal \*\* is a townsperson (I have not seen her undergarments) your request for death could be counter-productive. > > I “get” some of what you are saying but this last question I would like a bit more information about. Lightfoot not mafia with septimus. > [@USCDiver](#): > > Everyone, sorry about my relative lack of participation Today. I’m in the middle of a sting of night shifts which makes it difficulty for me to do much writing/analyzing. I’m doing my best to keep up but there is a lot of material to digest. I have one more night tonight and then hopefully I’ll have a chance to make some contributions. For now, I’m going to sleep. Keeping my eye on Diver, here’s a post of his which is noncommittal. Sounds like a scum who needs to keep his head under the water, because his mates are being eaten alive. > [@Normal\_Phase](#): > > Frowny face at Pizzaguy. If I do my job right that is unlikely to be an issue. But still. Since when do you advocate prophylactic lynching? 😃 Ah, Normal. You’re so Normal. It’s just a phase, though. > [@Normal\_Phase](#): > > Here is TexCat’s vote on Special Ed. > > SNIP > > **vote: Texcat** Okay, Normal picks up where I left off on TexCat. This doesn’t read scum or townie to me. I actually believe the scums would leap on a case, but not start one. Next, septimus votes Normal Phase. Hirka posts but doesn’t flinch or move his vote. > [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > I’ve been very busy at work today, so I haven’t been able to follow the thread as closely as I normally do, but I’m going to step in and > > **vote Texcat** > > SNIP > > \*\*Texcat \*\*seems to be laying low, trying to stir things up, but not willing to take any strong positions on anything. Well, well, well. Lookie here. Who comes in and dives onto the TexCat case? Suspect\* number two.\* > [@TexCat](#): > > Ugh. Not following, but still voting? > > SNIP > > \*\*Vote: Suburban Plankton \*\* And Tex’s response. Worth a read. > [@septimus](#): > > There are some other things in that post that ping me, but this one could be a slip of knowledge we don’t have (knowledge given only to the “Janitor”?). Ed has not “flipped” at all, town or otherwise. Even if we assume Vig missed and Scum hit last Night, might there not be a Redirecter or something? And even in the absence of any such mechanic, we can only assume Ed was Town or 3rd Party. > > I know that my chief suspect is presently voting TexCat but she moves her votes a lot and it will be interesting to see how this develops. A point in TexCat’s favor: it would be logical to _assume_ Ed is town or 3rd party, just based on the fact that there was only one Kill last Night, so it might be more of a skim-tell than a scum-tell. Nevertheless > > \*\*Vote: TexCat \*\* > > Speaking of Night-time killings, I have to wonder about players who worry that my actions showed no fear of a Scum NK. My reputation for Town suspicion against me has the “fringe benefit” that I need worry very little about Scum Killing me unless I’ve claimed an important Power role. This is especially true in this game, where I’ve been a strong Lynch candidate. _ **MWAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAAAA** _ > [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > **unvote: texcat** > > **vote: ShadowFacts** > > 2 things: TexCat is finally getting some pressure (great) but also seemed to be misinformed about special ed not having flipped yet. Something I think the Lords would remember so they avoid such a mistake. > > ShadowFacts is long due for more pressure as well. > Now, I’ll actually re-examine the four people I’m talking about and try to view each from both angles and see if what I come up with changes my mind. > > For the record, TexCat is still a fine idea, but I’m switching her to a Finger of Suspicion and bumping Shadow into the line of death. Here I get the feeling that scums are leaping on TexCat. I reduce the wagon. > [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > I’d prefer the vigilante, if any, pick off some of the folks I’ve voted for today. But that’s if I had my druthers. Mwhaahahahaha! > [@septimus](#): > > 😕 :smack: 😕 :smack: Pardon me if I express irritation. > > I already answered your question honestly. What does it matter if I assess one at 17.3% Scum and the other as 17.5% Scum when there’s an uncertainty of plus-or-minus 10% on these numbers? If and when one becomes a serious Lynch candidate I will try to study the case. BECAUSE IT MATTERS!!! Here, he doesn’t want to express a specific opinion of Suburban Plankton! These probing questions make him uneasy! > [@Weedy](#): > > My vote on pedescribe was not terribly effective. > > **unvote pedescribe** > It seems noteworthy to me that Texcat has not much concrete to say in this game, until she gets voted. Then she is all hands on deck, ready to defend. > > **vote Texcat** One little two little three little scumbags… who who who among you three are guilty? septimus, sure… but Plankton or Weedy? Plankton, or Weedy… or both? > [@ShadowFacts](#): > > Hey everyone, I am back in health, catching up at work and obviously have a lot to catch up here as well. Sorry I had to be absent for so long. I’m going to have to post as I go along here since there is so much for me to read, so don’t be surprised if I comment on something from a couple days ago… Nice. Let’s see where he stands. > [@ShadowFacts](#): > > OK, I’m up to **ATPG’s** case on \*\*choie \*\*(post #905): > > I admit that based on the sheer volume of words, I read quickly, but I don’t see enough there to vote for **choie**. Too much of the case is based on “tone,” which is impossible to rebut because tone is in the eye of the reader. (His original case on \*\*septimus \*\*was similarly “tone-based,” if significantly shorter :)). **choie’s** “I’m new” repetitions certainly have gotten old, but I’m not seeing the play-acting and insincerity that \*\*ATPG \*\*is. No vote right now on \*\*choie \*\*for me. No flinch. > [@ShadowFacts](#): > > Someone else said something similar to this earlier, but I can’t remember who and I don’t want to go back and track it down. Anyway, this sentiment makes no sense to me. \*\*septimus \*\*came within moments of being lynched yesterDay, and only avoided the noose with a last-minute vote switch that was sure to be controversial. It makes perfect sense to me that Scum would skip him and assume that there was a high probability of him being lynched today. Why bother killing him when he’s garnering tons of suspicion and likely to die the following Day? Talks to someone, no vote yet. > [@Red\_Skeezix](#): > > well, you guys have been busy, just chatting it up. meanwhile, i’ve been stupid busy, and haven’t had much of a chance to play. > > I need to review the day more closely, see if anything jumps out. > > But at this point: > > **vote septimus** > > Your claim seems tailored to your actions of late yesterday. It’s pretty convenient. Also, it seems trivial for a scum player to fake, if they don’t think there is a vig in the game (there’s no guarantee that there is). Also the power is a strange one. I feel like every so often someone claims to be either a Town aligned Bomb or a Bulletproof townie. It’s just that in ~ 40 games played, I’ve seen 1 bomb and 2 bulletproof town players. It’s just not that common. So to put it simply, I find the vote manipulation to be a very scummy action, and the claim hard to swallow. > > Second up, > > ShadowFacts: I didn’t think both you and Silver Jan could both be scum, and since Silver Jan turned out to be town. The points I raised against you yesterday rise up to the surface. > > **vote ShadowFacts** > > Third up, InnerStickler: > Thoughts: Inner Stickler is staying under the radar, he’s posting but not taking positions. His case against Silver Jan was undefensible. Even his statement about Pizza was wishy washy. He’s a strong candidate for scum. > I still want to review TexCat, but that will have to wait till tomorrow, cause now I’m tired. Oh me likey. > [@](#): > > Septimus (6): Hirka T’Bawa [885], Inner Stickler [888], Stanislaus [893], gnarlycharlie [959], Mental Guy [968], Red Skeezix [1065] > TexCat (5): Normal Phase [1007], Suburban Plankton [1014], Septimus [1023] > ShadowFacts (3): Hirka T’Bawa [885], Askthepizzaguy [1030], Red Skeezix [1065] > Suburban Plankton (2): TexCat [1018], Weedy [1044] > Choie (2): Weedy [923], Normal Phase [1047] > Normal Phase (2): Choie [930], Septimus [1009] > Mental Guy (1): gnarlycharlie [959] > gnarlycharlie (1): Mental Guy [968] > Stanislaus (1): Askthepizzaguy [988] > > With these votes, Septimus would be lynched. Day ends tomorrow, July 28th at 5 pm central time. As always, please check for errors. Well, this seems familiar to me. Then, I am about to go after ShadowFacts hardcore. Septimus (5): Inner Stickler [888], Stanislaus [893], gnarlycharlie [959], Mental Guy [968], Red Skeezix [1065] ShadowFacts (5): Hirka T’Bawa [885], Askthepizzaguy [1030], Red Skeezix [1065], Normal Phase [1080], Hirka T’Bawa [1091] TexCat (3): Normal Phase [1007], Suburban Plankton [1014], Septimus [1023] Suburban Plankton (2): TexCat [1018], Weedy Choie (1): Weedy [923] Normal Phase (2): Choie [930], Septimus [1009] Mental Guy (1): gnarlycharlie [959] gnarlycharlie (1): Mental Guy [968] Stanislaus (1): Askthepizzaguy [988] Locked in: Hirka T’Bawa Hirka locks in. But he didn’t flinch earlier. I think this may be coincidental. > [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > I have the vote count as follows: > Septimus (5): [del]Hirka T’Bawa (885-1091)[/del], [del]Normal Phase (887-947)[/del], Inner Stickler (888), Stanislaus (893), gnarlycharlie (959), MentalGuy (968), Red Skeezix (1065) > ShadowFacts (5): Hirka T’Bawa (885), Askthepizzaguy (1030), Red Skeezix (1065), Normal Phase (1080), Hirka T’Bawa (1091) > choie (1): [del]Askthepizzaguy (905-988)[/del], Weedy (923), [del]Normal Phase (1047-1080)[/del] > Pedescribe (0): [del]Weedy (923-1044)[/del] > MentalGuy (1): gnarlycharlie (959) > gnarlycharlie (1): MentalGuy (968) > Stanislaus (0): [del]Askthepizzaguy (988-1067)[/del] > Texcat (4): [del]Askthepizzaguy (988-1030)[/del], Normal Phase (1007), Suburban Plankton (1014), Septimus (1023), Weedy (1044) > Normal Phase (1): Septimus (1009), ShadowFacts (1090) > Suburban Plankton (2): Texcat (1018), Askthepizzaguy (1067) > > \*\*You have \*\*Weedy \*\*voting for **Suburban** ; that vote was actually on \*\*Texcat **(Post 1044), and you are missing Askthepizzaguy’s vote on Suburban (Post 1067)** SP and Weedy are both leaping all over Astral to make sure his vote tally is right. Nervous, much? > [@](#): > > **Septimus (5): Inner Stickler [888], Stanislaus [893], gnarlycharlie [959], Mental Guy [968], Red Skeezix [1065]** > **ShadowFacts (5): Hirka T’Bawa [885], Askthepizzaguy [1030], Red Skeezix [1065], Normal Phase [1080], Hirka T’Bawa [1091] > TexCat (4): Normal Phase [1007], Suburban Plankton [1014], Septimus [1023], Weedy [1044]** > Suburban Plankton (2): TexCat [1018], Askthepizzaguy [1067] > Normal Phase (2): Choie [930], Septimus [1009] > Choie (1): Weedy [923] > Mental Guy (1): gnarlycharlie [959] > gnarlycharlie (1): Mental Guy [968] > Stanislaus (1): Askthepizzaguy [988] > > Locked in: Hirka T’Bawa I see… > [@LightFoot](#): > > I suppose this is moot point this late in the Day but remember \*\*USCDiver \*\* > I liked my case yesterDay and it was not responded to by the player or anyone else > Did y’all ferget he was playin’? Interesting point. > [@USCDiver](#): > > I’m still playing, real life has interfered, I should have known better than to take that sub position, but I’ll do my best to participate as best I can. > > I’m concerned about \*\*septimus’s \*\*role claim. There is no mention of gaining experience points or what the rewards for leveling up might be. > > I’m also worried about \*\*TexCat’s \*\*seeming PIS about **special ed’s** alignment. None of the other cases made today are particular persuasive to me. > > **Lightfoot** , can you link to and/or summarize your case against me? > > For now I’m going to > > **vote septimus** > > My wife’s out of town today and I’m on full-time babysitting duty, so if I get some naptime later I’ll try to check back in. Oh snap. So, Diver is scum with ShadowFacts, if SF is scum. But, Diver is probably not scum with septimus. Interestink. > [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > Septimus (6): [del]Hirka T’Bawa (885-1091)[/del], [del]Normal Phase (887-947)[/del], Inner Stickler (888), Stanislaus (893), gnarlycharlie (959), MentalGuy (968), Red Skeezix (1065) Diver (1098) > ShadowFacts (5): Hirka T’Bawa (885), Askthepizzaguy (1030), Red Skeezix (1065), Normal Phase (1080), Hirka T’Bawa (1091) > Texcat (4): [del]Askthepizzaguy (988-1030)[/del], Normal Phase (1007), Suburban Plankton (1014), Septimus (1023), Weedy (1044) > Suburban Plankton (2): Texcat (1018), Askthepizzaguy (1067) > Normal Phase (2): Septimus (1009), ShadowFacts (1090) > MentalGuy (1): gnarlycharlie (959) > gnarlycharlie (1): MentalGuy (968) > choie (1): [del]Askthepizzaguy (905-988)[/del], Weedy (923), [del]Normal Phase (1047-1080)[/del] > Pedescribe (0): [del]Weedy (923-1044)[/del] > Stanislaus (0): [del]Askthepizzaguy (988-1067)[/del] > > As of right now, this tally \*should \*be correct. > > Note: ShadowFacts will likely incur an additional vote from me if septimus remains the lynch leader. ShadowFacts has two votes that are both not placed on septimus. Will likely double-vote to spare himself. No one is double-voting septimus therefore it will be difficult to prevent his lynch. septimus will likely double-vote ShadowFacts, and has no votes on ShadowFacts. > > I have strong doubts that septimus will survive the lynch today, or that anyone besides septimus or ShadowFacts will be lynched. > With a few hours left, it behooves the team to remember the tactical situation does not favor a lynch of a Lord of Slaughter based on this tally. it’s too easy for the Lords to disrupt it or keep the lynch leader in the line of fire. Boy did I ever call that. > [@LightFoot](#): > > I’m not sure I will be here for EOD > The case against Texcat holds water for me ( I have company so no time to go long on the quotes) > \*\* Vote Texcat \*\* > > I’ll hold my second Lightfoot tips the balance, but is not scum with septimus, don’t think. > [@ShadowFacts](#): > > **ATPG** , your response to my claim has been interesting, that’s for sure. First time all game I’ve seen you flailing around. Shadow seems completely unrelated to septimus. :dubious: With TexCat in the lead, many many people post, but the tally doesn’t change for a while. > [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > **vote texcat** > > I was hoping that we would get a few more people involved in the discussion here, but that ain’t happening. > > I think \*\*Septimus \*\*is Town, and I’m inclined to believe **Shadowfacts** at this point. But SP makes certain Tex dies. > [@septimus](#): > > I see your argument, but JFTR my working assumption is that there is exactly one Scum among Shadow, Normal, ATPG. In the (very?) unlikely case that two of them Scum, I was guessing Normal and ATPG. But is that clear? Could it be Shadow and one of her detractors who are both Scum? 😕 Or (what have I been smoking? 🆒) all three of them are Scum? :dubious: > > I don’t know. Everyone posting has far more Mafia experience than I. Do super-bussings Scum-vs-Scum, really happen, as some (or only Suburban?) may be conjecturing to be the case here? > > What I was actually suggesting was more mundane: That ATPG is the only Scum of the three, that he wants to keep me around, while he kills off Town Powers, by convincing Town to make unwise choices like Lynching Shadow. After all this, I’m still Lynch leader, despite that none of these other three suspects are even voting me. ATPG (or perhaps Normal, but I’m leaning the other way now) figures I’m dead-man-walking but hopes to manipulate me and offer me up as a simple Lynch on a future Day, when the other Lynch candidate is no longer Scum’s choice. > > On the question of Shadow demonstrating his Power with a vote-doubling: > > 1. Is there a good point? The charge is that the Power is likely real; the worry is about alignment. > 2. The vote-doubling is very valuable if he’s Town. Why make him spend it just as a demo? > 3. The Doc has the option of not protecting Shadow. In fact, those so confident Shadow is Scum should encourage him not to protect. If Shadow survives, then he may be very likely Scum. > > I’m going to lock in on the best alternative to any of the above potential Scum: > > \*\* Unvote: ATPG \*\* > \*\* Vote: TexCat \*\* > > Among other advantages: > > 1. I can go to bed. > 2. My Internet connection _is_ flakey. It would be very annoying to stay awake just to be unable to get on-line. Septimus makes darn sure it’s not him who dies. > [@ShadowFacts](#): > > Sorry, everyone. I can’t be at the computer all day at work. I was away from my desk for the last 90 minutes and can’t stay long right now, either. > > I have limited uses of each power, and I don’t see how using the Voting power right now is going to prove anything about myself, so I’m not going to use it and hope I survive. I will happily pinkie-promise not to do any last-minute vote switching and powering up to save myself. > > I will, however: > > **Unvote Normal Phase** > **Vote TexCat** > **Vote TexCat** > > Purely a defensive vote. I am leaving the office now, so I will not be able to post anything further before the Day ends. Shadow could still be scum. Not sure there’s a connection between him and septimus. > [@Weedy](#): > > OK, I know this is close to end of day, especially as Astral is ending it an hour early, but I just woke up. I need more time (and coffee!) to evaluate SF’s claim. To help prevent his lynch for today: > > **unvote choie** > > **vote texcat** Why am I seeing the same three faces over and over again? **Weedy, septimus, Suburban Plankton.** > [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > **Unvote septimus** > > **Vote texcat > Vote texcat** And **stickler** , I suppose. But it’s been decided. ```auto Look! Tildes! ``` TO BE CONCLUDED… ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 6:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1434 "2011-08-03T06:04:37Z")
In summary: TOO LONG, YOU DID NOT READ ANY OF IT, GO BACK AND READ IT [QUOTE=Pizza’s mental blackboard] ~ \*\*septimus \*\*(Scum extraordinaire) **Suburban Plankton** (scumbuddy extraordinaire) **Weedy** - mehbe **Stickler** - mehbe Diver (maybe not… meh) choie- (Not) pedescribe- (Not) [/QUOTE] I’m 50/50 on Stickler. But, I’d like to leave Stickler alone for now for strategic reasons. Septimus gotta die. If he’s scum: Then, Red Skeezix gotta assassinate Suburban Plankton. Then, Weedy gotta die. If the game still happens, Stickler must claim. I’m prepared to double-vote the following people: [ul] [li] **septimus** [/li][li] **Suburban Plankton** [/li][/ul] Make your choice. Mine is septimus. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1435 "2011-08-03T06:06:26Z")
Bueller? ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 7:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1436 "2011-08-03T07:40:00Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > All of this is wrong. For the Town Vig to miss on Night 1 doesn’t surprise me; there’s too little information to fire blindly. “missed the deadline” might be a euphemism for “dithered in fear of killing a Townie.” > > Who protected Septimus on Night Two? 😕 Septimus is immune to the first Bullet; have you been skimming? Is the skimming thing a “scum tell” on this particular message board? The “have you been skimming” feels tacked-on and disingenuous, and although I’m not as familiar with your customs here, I got a sense at the beginning of the game that “skimming” was a scum tell. It’s not, in my experience. In my experience it’s lazy townies, or just plain old busy people with real lives. You know who hovers over the game like a cloud of death? Scumbags. And pizzaguy. And really enthusiastic townies, but they’re rarer. > [@](#): > > As for two kill attempts being thwarted last Night, it sounds like you’re unfamiliar with the “probability paradox” associated with the airplane bomb: > > You can’t use the unlikelihood of something you already know to be true to assess the unlikelihood of something else. Yes, it is fallacious thinking. > [@](#): > > I’ll admit that I’m changing my mind in this game. I’ve been defending Shadow, thinking at least one of Pizza or Normal is Scum. And I was never quite sure why, on any of those three things. > [@](#): > > Yet I don’t see any obvious Scum insincerity from Pizza or Normal, and they’ve surprised me by pursuing lines that Scum wouldn’t. If you are guilty, you couldn’t have come up with worse timing for this line. 😃 😃 😃 I approve… but man, _shoot thyself in thy foot._ > [@](#): > > This could all be super-WIFOM, Oh be brave and take a stand. You know I ain’t gonna be protected at night. Come on, \*one \*little sword through my skull, and it will be all over. You know you want to. 🆒 > [@](#): > > but a number of things, especially Shadow’s faulty analyses above, makes me wonder if I’ve been wrong all along. With **ShadowFacts** unwilling to submit to requested “proofs” and with no Town Vig counterclaiming Red, the possibility of Scum Shadow is growing strong in my own mind. Too little, too late. Y’all had your chance to nibble on the Shadowy, Facty, kind of person. I hereby withdraw my support for the ShadowFacts lynch. > [@](#): > > One thing is clear: if Shadow really is Scum with the quadruple-voting power, his advantage will grow rapidly. If we misLynch toDay and suffer an NK toNight, we’ll have lost four votes altogether, and Shadow may truly be unLynchable. Steal my reasoning a day late, why don’t you. > [@](#): > > Pizza has proposed a plan where Shadow gets Lynched toDay, first specifying a Lynch target for toMorrow. If Shadow does flip Town, we Lynch Red toMorrow. If we do this we either get 1 Scum for 1 Lynch or, if Shadow is Town after all, I think the whole scum house-of-cards may begin to fall apart. _evil cackle_ Thanks for showing me they’re both probably innocent. I needed that. > [@](#): > > Until the logic errors above, I was getting no clear “pings” from Shadow. **But I’m also getting no strong pings from anyone else**. When the Lords of slaughter are led to the slaughterhouse, I want you to remember the following: Take risks. Safe play is scummy play. > [@](#): > > The argument that Scum Shadow must be Lynched before he becomes unLynchable seems strong to me. (I’m almost suspicious of Shadow’s detractors because they aren’t double-voting Shadow yet. :dubious: ) You’d like us to muck things up with early lock-ins. That way it will be easier for the last-day gang to last-hour swing the last few votes in your last favor. This will be the last thing you ever last do! 😃 Stop struggling and die! ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1437 "2011-08-03T08:03:40Z")
In fact, I’d like to see a couple early lock-ins. This time, in reverse. You folks who have been good enough to leave your votes unlocked until the last minute, why don’t you go ahead and take a stand at some point before it gets down to the wire. Your continued insistence on swinging the tally at the last few hours of the last day, tells me that you’re not interested in pressuring and voting scum, you’re interested in making sure nobody in your camp dies. At SP’s insistence yesterday, I locked in on ShadowFacts when he was behind in the tally. That’s because I was sure he needed the pressure. But I openly challenge everyone I just accused to prove that you also have the cojones to take a risk, and stop overturning the will of everyone else in the final hours. You really want to lock in on me, or Red Skeezix? Do it. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 8:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1438 "2011-08-03T08:57:13Z")
I completely agree with you that septimus is scum. (And that was quite the analysis, Pizza. My word.) It’s a pity you went off the boil for him yesterDay, though. But I also still think Red is scum. This is only reinforced by the fact that septimus has taken the time today to attack Shadow’s (to me, very clear) reasoning about Red being scum. And if septimus isn’t on the same team as Shadow, (and I agree with you that this seems pretty likely) then that makes Shadow’s claims about blocking Red on a no-kill Night - always the simplest explanation - so much more believable. I said before that I’d only double-vote if I didn’t mind which of two people swung. I sort of meant that in a “when hell freezes over” way, but it’s turned into more of a “when Birnam Wood shall come to Dunsinane” kind of way: I will happily see Red or septimus swing today. (And that’ll teach me to leave hostages to fortune.) **vote septimus** I won’t finish the Day voting for both of them of course, as that would be self-defeating. I’ll move my vote to which ever one is leading, probably as I leave work tomorrow which will be c. 7 hours before deadline. (So anyone who wants to muck around with the votes to save them will have to make it obvious by keeping their votes back until then.) I quite like the rest of your case, particularly on the voting activity around TexCat. I hadn’t really noticed Weedy very much, which is interesting in itself. However, first things first! If we can get a scum lynch toDay, we can firm up a lot of the premises in your case. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 8:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1439 "2011-08-03T08:58:45Z")
Stanislaus, don’t go anywhere. I need a person to talk to or else I’ll go insane. Only more so. Stay? Chat? Hugs? ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2011, 9:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1440 "2011-08-03T09:30:32Z")
OK, here’s a question - you seem to be placing a lot of credit on votes for septimus in your analysis of people (e.g., Hirka, gnarly, me). I wouldn’t be so quick to rule people out - the reason bussing works is that it looks very Townie. Is a vote for septimus really enough by itself to push people down/off your suspicion list? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052.md?page=71) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052.md?page=73)