# De'endee Mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [July 6, 2011, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052 "2011-07-06T16:30:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 75
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 12:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1481 "2011-08-04T12:35:15Z")
[http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14087140&postcount=1314](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14087140&postcount=1314) Cheers. I won’t be back until around lunchtime myself. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1482 "2011-08-04T13:10:16Z")
Well, I suppose Red voting septimus was pretty inevitable. But bussing isn’t going to let you off the hook now. I say that because I’m about to: **unvote Red** **vote septimus** (Confirm lock-in on septimus) but this doesn’t mean I’m any less suspicious of Red. But I can’t finish voting for both of them, and septimus is in the lead so I might as well keep him there. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1483 "2011-08-04T13:12:48Z")
Should have done a bit more text formatting there: **confirm lock-in on septimus** ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1484 "2011-08-04T14:00:22Z")
Ugh. I am flabbergasted by what is going on in this game. We basically have a Claim/Counterclaim situation today between me and **Red Skeezix**. The odds are _extremely high_ that one of us is scum, so why are we seriously considering someone else with less than 12 hours left in the Day? The high percentage play in this instance is to lynch one of the “claimees.” If we lynch wrong, lynch the other one the next Day. It’s a classic one for one trade, which is good for Town, and is basic mafia strategy. (I realize that **PizzaGuy** has been jumping up and down all day, waving his arms around, and posting 10,000 word essays on why anyone except \*\*Red Skeezix \*\*should be lynched, but I’m amazed anyone is listening to him.) Here’s what I think Town players should be doing: 1. Examine the claims of **Red Skeezix** and I. 2. Review the night results and explanations of both parties. 3. If you have time, take a review of our posting to date in the game. (At least take a look at toDay’s postings). 4. Decide who you think is more likely to be Scum and vote for one of us. My votes are already locked into **Red Skeezix**. \*\*I will be using my Vote power before the end of the day to power up anyone who locks in votes on Red. \*\* I’d rather do someone other than me, but if I have to power myself up, so be it. ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1485 "2011-08-04T14:21:52Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > Ugh. > > I am flabbergasted by what is going on in this game. We basically have a Claim/Counterclaim situation today between me and **Red Skeezix**. The odds are _extremely high_ that one of us is scum, so why are we seriously considering someone else with less than 12 hours left in the Day? The high percentage play in this instance is to lynch one of the “claimees.” If we lynch wrong, lynch the other one the next Day. It’s a classic one for one trade, which is good for Town, and is basic mafia strategy. (I realize that **PizzaGuy** has been jumping up and down all day, waving his arms around, and posting 10,000 word essays on why anyone except \*\*Red Skeezix \*\*should be lynched, but I’m amazed anyone is listening to him.) > > Here’s what I think Town players should be doing: > > 1. Examine the claims of **Red Skeezix** and I. > 2. Review the night results and explanations of both parties. > 3. If you have time, take a review of our posting to date in the game. (At least take a look at toDay’s postings). > 4. Decide who you think is more likely to be Scum and vote for one of us. > > My votes are already locked into **Red Skeezix**. \*\*I will be using my Vote power before the end of the day to power up anyone who locks in votes on Red. \*\* I’d rather do someone other than me, but if I have to power myself up, so be it. Because I find it more feasible that you and Red are both telling the truth than I do that both Red and septimus are. And when I look at the evidence, it seems septimus is the one more likely to be lying than Red. As I have stated before, the fact that there was no kill last Night does concern me, but there are possible explanations for it. ---
**Author:** ![Weedy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/weedy/32/301_2.png) [@Weedy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weedy)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1486 "2011-08-04T14:52:45Z")
I was wary of a Septimus lynch, because if he is bulletproof Townie, then Scum would just love for us to lynch him. I wanted to wait and see how things played out, but people seem to want to lynch him today. I went back and did a reread. I have a whole list of posts and comments, but I will just quote the one that jumped out at me on reread: > [@septimus](#): > > Here is my role PM: > > Maybe this is not a Power adequate to the way I played, but it does make me semi-confirmable Town. I’m not immune to Lynch;\*\* I wasn’t worried about Scum NK until the end-game because with all the talk about Lynching me it seemed very unlikely Scum would waste its NK on me.\*\* I really did miss the point about SJ; all the accusations consternated me to the point I play even worse than usual. > > Presenting my role PM actually gives me a sense of relief. Please go ahead and Lynch me if you don’t believe it. \*\* Assuming Vig did try to Kill me last Night, I’m just Vanilla now anyway.\*\* > > I will spend the rest of the Day studying past posts for possible scum-tells. I have been reading and re-reading, but with little success yet. A general comment is that many of the posts which made accusations seemed more scummy than the accusee. Naturally I focus on the people voting me, but I’ll admit I’ve not gotten any clear scum-tell from Normal Phase nor ATPG. Both of you now strike me as sincere Townies (though I’m sure you’re both clever enough to do that even if Scum). > > I will study and find (at least) two people to vote before End-of-day. Give me a while as my usually boring real-life is eventful right now. I apologize if I’ve misplayed, and will roll over meekly if Town chooses to Lynch me. bolding mine. Surely if Septimus is not worried about the NK it’s because he is bulletproof. But no, he thinks he is Vanilla now. Sounds a lot like he did get a notification after all. This puts Red Skeezix’s claim in a new light. **unvote Red Skeezix** **vote septimus** **vote septimus** I have also been looking through Normal’s posts (well, most of them), because I was concerned about her role in the Septimus near-lynch, and her extreme pushing of Shadowfacts yesterday. I was leaning town on her before that, and I didn’t see anything in particular to change my mind. Her case on Shadowfacts, which looked weak/ultra-subtle to me before, looks much stronger knowing that Shadowfacts was in fact concealing something. ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1487 "2011-08-04T15:05:22Z")
Septimus (12): **Red Skeezix [1295], Askthepizzaguy [1429], Stanislaus [1438], Askthepizzaguy [1444],** Normal Phase [1447], Mental Guy [1468], **Inner Stickler [1470], Inner Stickler [1470], Red Skeezix [1480], Stanislaus [1482], Weedy [1486], Weedy [1486]** Red Skeezix (5): **ShadowFacts [1258],** Hirka T’Bawa [1260], Septimus [1276], USCDiver [1280], **ShadowFacts [1416]** Askthepizzaguy (3): Septimus [1276], USCDiver [1280], Suburban Plankton [1393] ShadowFacts (2): Normal Phase [1291], gnarlycharlie [1404], Mental Guy (1): Normal Phase [1447] Lightfoot (1): choie [1406] Locked in: Hirka T’Bawa, Red Skeezix, Askthepizzaguy, Inner Stickler, ShadowFacts, Stanislaus, Weedy With these votes, Septimus would be lynched. Day ends in 8 hours at 6 pm central time. As always, please check for errors. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1488 "2011-08-04T15:38:27Z")
_sigh_ I give up. I know when I’ve been outplayed. Only thing left is to tip my hat. _tips hat_ ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1489 "2011-08-04T15:48:19Z")
Since I know I’m Town I must again try to stay alive. **Unvote: AskthePizzaGuy** **Vote: Red Skeezix** I do think you Townies are being led astray. As usual you lock in your votes rather than allowing me to defend. Know that I’ll be laughing at you from the grave if no one comes to my rescue. Miss Phase, will you please have a drink with me toNight, even if I’m Dead? Make mine hemlock and potassium cyanide. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1490 "2011-08-04T15:49:59Z")
[QUOTE=Askthepizzaguy] \ [/QUOTE] God help me, this makes sense. I can easily reconcile both \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*and **Red Skeezix** being Town. It’s considerably less clear how both \*\*Septimus \*\*and **Red Skeezix** can both be Town, and **Septimus** ’ case is definitely the weakest, particularly because he claims not to know his current status. **vote Septimus** And I’ll make Pizza’s day here by flip-flopping on him once again. I’ll admit right now that I can’t get a handle on this guy, and I think I’ll stop trying for a while. **unvote Askthepizzaguy** I’m holding on to my second vote for now. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1491 "2011-08-04T15:54:11Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > _sigh_ > > I give up. I know when I’ve been outplayed. Only thing left is to tip my hat. > > _tips hat_ Do you really not see the case for you and \*\*Red \*\*both being Town? What about that scenario strikes you as impossible? ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1492 "2011-08-04T16:02:18Z")
> [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > Someone plz explain the joke to me. \*\*peekercpa \*\*is one of our more colorful and verbose posters. I believe he actually held the unnoficial record for ‘most consecutive posts’ before this game 🙂 \*\*Meeko \*\*is another player who has a tendency to monopolize the conversation at times. Hopefully that helps you understand what we were getting at ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1493 "2011-08-04T16:28:01Z")
Ohboy. I was hoping to see Red’s response; I was hoping to weigh in myself, and now both of those things seem superfluous. I hope this is right; I have certainly had my doubts at times. With a seven vote difference I am going to keep my votes split, and I would like Shadow to use the message power. (I’d _really_ like him to use the vote power, but I doubt he will. But one or the other would be nice.) ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Skeezix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aca169/32.png) [@Red\_Skeezix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Skeezix)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1494 "2011-08-04T17:26:30Z")
> [@Normal\_Phase](#): > > [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14087140&postcount=1314](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14087140&postcount=1314) > > Cheers. > > I won’t be back until around lunchtime myself. > [@](#): > > But that part? By this point you know that your hit on Septimus failed. YOU know that whatever Septimus claimed was not entirely fake. And second-party protection of scum players by other scum players is so rare I can’t even think of the last time I’ve seen it. First instance that pops into my head is Space Hijack. Scum had a paranoid doctor. > [@](#): > > Your contention is he’s not bulletproof at all. How does this make the level 5 thing relevant or not? It’s relevant because it signals that there is an incongruency with my PM in his claim. How much then of his claim should I trust? None of it, I can only trust the data which I possess: 1. Septimus surived a vig attempt. 2. I was told Septimus was protected. Then what possibilities are there? 1. Septimus possesses some passive protection. 2. Septimus was protected from a non passive source (possibly himself). Of two unlikely cases, which is more likely? (I am discarding scotsman, because I don’t think he would have vote manipulated if he would have survived regardless.) I believe the second is more likely based on the wording in my PM, and proceed along that path. Septimus partially professing one or the other is meaningless, since I believe he is lying. > [@](#): > > That doesn’t make sense. The vig fails a second time, the vig claims, Septimus is proven a liar, Septimus gets lynched. What makes that trade worth it for the scum? I don’t see the “vig bait” argument at all Red; it’s the worst part of your defense IMO. Why would the vig claim in that scenario? Claiming essentially gives scum a 1 for 1 that depending on septimus’s role might balance out. If septimus has no powers, limited powers that have already been expended, or has somewhat useless powers, then the trade is to scum’s advantage. They would be removing a player who can reduce the unknown pool, take away hiding places, and possibly remove scum players directly. ---
**Author:** ![Askthepizzaguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askthepizzaguy/32/9405_2.png) [@Askthepizzaguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askthepizzaguy)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1495 "2011-08-04T17:55:36Z")
I find ShadowFacts’ frustration convincing, but I find the fact that no one has actually tried to overturn the argument even a little bit disturbing. If it’s such a horrible anti-town thing that’s about to happen, somebody use their big boy words to explain why septimus could be innocent given the data. And then, explain why Red could be innocent if septimus is. Obviously you’ve got one, haven’t ya? Now explain which is more likely… oh I give up. Am I just talking to a wall, ShadowFacts? REFUTE doesn’t mean IGNORE! ---
**Author:** ![Normal\_Phase](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Normal\_Phase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Normal_Phase)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1496 "2011-08-04T18:11:31Z")
Disturbing how? I find it disturbing in an Oh god I hope this is scums giving up and not scums gleefully piling on yet another not-scum sort of way. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1497 "2011-08-04T18:54:03Z")
If my vote tally is correct… Players with no votes: Pedescribe LightFoot Players with only one vote: Hirka T’Bawa (Red Skeezix) Mental Guy (Septimus) choie (LightFoot) gnarlycharlie (ShadowFacts) Suburban Plankton (Septimus) Players with two votes, but not locked in: Normal Phase (Septimus, Mental Guy) Right now Septimus has a 7-vote lead over Red Skeezix. If ShadowFacts uses his power (on himself or Septimus), and Hirka doubles his existing vote, that becomes a 4-vote difference. There are still 8 potential votes available among people who are not currently voting for either of the top two candidates, but there are also 3 people voting Septimus who have votes available to cast/move. There’s still a little bit of room for last-minute voting shenanigans, but not much. And any effort to change the vote at this point is going to have to be a concerted one. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1498 "2011-08-04T19:15:25Z")
> [@Askthepizzaguy](#): > > Now explain which is more likely… oh I give up. Am I just talking to a wall, ShadowFacts? REFUTE doesn’t mean IGNORE! I’m going to be completely honest: I can’t refute your case on **septimus** because I didn’t read your case on **septimus**. I simply cannot keep up with the walls of words and you’ve thrown out so many scenarios and possibilities and hypotheses that I cannot follow anymore. You’ve exhausted me, outplayed me, and demoralized me. I can see now how this is going to play out and I congratulate you. I can also see that using my vote power isn’t going to make a difference today. Anyone around not named **Pizza** or **Normal** want to get a Message from me? 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1499 "2011-08-04T19:23:39Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > I’m going to be completely honest: I can’t refute your case on **septimus** because I didn’t read your case on **septimus**. I simply cannot keep up with the walls of words and you’ve thrown out so many scenarios and possibilities and hypotheses that I cannot follow anymore. You’ve exhausted me, outplayed me, and demoralized me. I can see now how this is going to play out and I congratulate you. > > I can also see that using my vote power isn’t going to make a difference today. Anyone around not named **Pizza** or **Normal** want to get a Message from me? 🆒 Sure, I’ll take one. I’m completely in agreement with regards to \*\*Pizza’s \*\*case on **septimus** , tl&dr. Anyone care to summarize it for me? I don’t see why everyone is all of a sudden assuming that \*\*Red \*\*and \*\*Shadow \*\*are both telling the truth when it requires a leap of faith that the Scum missed a kill AND the Vig was blocked. ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052/1500 "2011-08-04T19:26:41Z")
I would rather you sent the message to LightFoot. I don’t really trust Diver. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052.md?page=74) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/deendee-mafia/588052.md?page=76)