# Defense Dept. taking Future's Market style bets on terror? This is a joke right? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [July 28, 2003, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524 "2003-07-28T21:50:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2003, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/1 "2003-07-28T21:50:48Z")
This is some kind of spoof… umm…uh… right? [Defense Dept. Program Taking Terror Bets](http://www.thewbalchannel.com/news/2363276/detail.html) > [@](#): > > Defense Dept. Program Taking Terror Bets > Program Models ‘Futures’ Markets > > A new Department of Defense program allows traders to bet on the likelihood of future terrorist attacks. The department’s “Defense Advanced Research Project Agency” designed what it calls the “The Policy Analysis Market.” > > The program works much like the financial markets where traders buy and sell “futures” based on the possibility of a specific event in the Middle East, 11 News reported. > > Some of the examples listed on the agency’s Web site include the assassination of Palestinian leader Yassar Arafat and a missile attack by North Korea. Bidders would profit if the events for which they hold futures occur. > > Defense officials said the market-based system is highly accurate when assessing such things as political and civil stability, economic health and military disposition of Middle East countries. > … > > Registration for the site begins Friday and will be limited to the first 1,000 traders. Actual trading will begin Sept. 1 and the Department of Defense plans to open the site to 10,000 traders by Jan. 1, 2004. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2003, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/2 "2003-07-28T22:36:41Z")
nothing on the DARPA site about it. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2003, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/3 "2003-07-28T22:54:16Z")
ABC ran a short story on it tonight. ---
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2003, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/4 "2003-07-28T23:01:04Z")
Here is another article and I really doubt it’s a joke: > **[MSNBC News - Breaking News and News Today | Latest News](https://www.msnbc.com/)** > > MSNBC breaking news and the latest news for today. Get daily news from local news reporters and world news updates with live audio & video from our team. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Slant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c57346/32.png) [@Mr.Slant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Slant)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2003, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/5 "2003-07-28T23:03:28Z")
Looks real enough to me. Here’s their home page: [http://www.policyanalysismarket.org/](http://www.policyanalysismarket.org/) Yeah. Hmmm. Heck, I’m game… ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Slant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c57346/32.png) [@Mr.Slant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Slant)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2003, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/6 "2003-07-28T23:13:42Z")
Oh. And it appears it is sponsored by DARPA, the Economist Intelligence Unit (that’s associated with The Economist magazine) and and some other organization I’ve never heard of. ---
**Author:** ![BaldTaco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/47e85d/32.png) [@BaldTaco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BaldTaco)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2003, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/7 "2003-07-29T01:49:21Z")
This stuff is really cool. The one you’re talking about is FutureMap, but every link on this page is worth reading. [http://www.darpa.mil/iao/programs.htm](http://www.darpa.mil/iao/programs.htm) ---
**Author:** ![Rex\_Fenestrarum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rex_fenestrarum/32/7265_2.png) [@Rex\_Fenestrarum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rex_Fenestrarum)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2003, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/8 "2003-07-29T02:08:02Z")
In the book _Blind Man’s Bluff_, it’s revealed that two sunken US subs were found when one of the genuises in the Navy (seriously, the guy was a genius - I wish I could remember his name presently) started a Vegas-style betting pool amongst researchers as to where the subs were. Very gamelike and they were proven correct, as the Navy was (until then) searching some 600 miles away from where the boats were. ---
**Author:** ![fiddlesticks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddlesticks/32/18129_2.png) [@fiddlesticks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fiddlesticks)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2003, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/9 "2003-07-29T05:52:08Z")
So, they’re counting on terrorists to give their plots away by betting on them? Absolute genius! ---
**Author:** ![Beryl\_Mooncalf\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9f8e36/32.png) [@Beryl\_Mooncalf\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beryl_Mooncalf_1)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2003, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/10 "2003-07-29T06:10:51Z")
REX… You’re referring to John P. Craven, and his use of Bayes’ theorem of subjective probability. It supposedly (per author quote) factors into an problem, subconscious information. He was two for two in his use of it in the book, 1 sub + 1 nuke bomb. I was impressed. Funny thing, Bayes was my first thought when I saw the OP too. I’ll bet You are right… ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2003, 7:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/11 "2003-07-29T07:38:21Z")
Well, bless Astro and the link providers. I smell some profits. ---
**Author:** ![Phnord\_Prephect](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/df705f/32.png) [@Phnord\_Prephect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phnord_Prephect)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2003, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/12 "2003-07-29T07:44:43Z")
I smell a rat. This whole thing smells fishy to me. Something about it just ain’t right. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2003, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/13 "2003-07-29T08:03:16Z")
What, it’s quite simple really, it’s a futures markets where those who believe they have advantageous market information can place bets on developments, or hedge against those developments. It’s such a beautiful idea, it brings a tear to my eye. I can hardly wait. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2003, 8:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/14 "2003-07-29T08:05:17Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Collounsbury \* > \*\*What, it’s quite simple really, it’s a futures markets where those who believe they have advantageous market information can place bets on developments, or hedge against those developments. > > It’s such a beautiful idea, it brings a tear to my eye. I can hardly wait. \*\* ACtually this is something GD could use. Let me open this up. ---
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2003, 8:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/15 "2003-07-29T08:23:03Z")
This all sounds a bit like that movie “Rat Race” where all the rich guys are tired of traditional gambling and they wager on just about anything and everything. The only difference is that this is even more absurd than the movie. But seriously, this is a bit scary. If something like this took off it could lead to all kinds of unintended consequences. Besides the obvious ones, I can imagine this leading to a scenario where just because a lot of people believe something is going to happen, it really does. There will be no way to tell if the “market” somehow influenced a particular event, or if it was going to happen anyway. There’s just something a little wrong with making a horrible prediction, anticipating it, then profitting on it when it actually happens…It’ll be sort of like trading cards, I’ll trade you my “Full out nuclear war between India and Afghanistan” for your “Sadam Hussein deploys hidden stockpiles of VX gas in revenge for his sons’ death”. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2003, 9:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/16 "2003-07-29T09:21:21Z")
May I be so bold as to suggest the General Question is now answered: Please see my thread in the Great Debates for debating the character of the program: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?threadid=200888](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?threadid=200888) ---
**Author:** ![omni-not](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8dc957/32.png) [@omni-not](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/omni-not)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2003, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/defense-dept-taking-futures-market-style-bets-on-terror-this-is-a-joke-right/191524/17 "2003-08-01T19:45:12Z")
[http://www.wired.com/news/politics/0,1283,59853,00.html](http://www.wired.com/news/politics/0,1283,59853,00.html) 🙂