# Democrat upsets in bye elections
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Tags:** trump
**Created:** [March 26, 2025, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144 "2025-03-26T16:45:29Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/1 "2025-03-26T16:45:29Z")
There was an election for state senator in Pennsylvania this week. The district went for Trump by 15 points. The Democrat pulled an upset.
> **[Democrat wins Pennsylvania state senate race in major upset](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/26/james-malone-democrat-pennsylvania-state-senate)**
>
> James Malone triumphed in a district that voted for Trump over Harris by more than 15 points in last November
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### Author:  [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/2 "2025-03-26T17:07:20Z")
There’s a potential upset in FL-06 which will take place next Tuesday. Josh Weil (D) has outraised Randy Fine (R) by over 10-1 in campaign contributions. It’s a heavily R district, so this would be a monumental upset if it happens.
> **[Poll shows CD 6 Special Election within margin of error](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/728263-poll-shows-cd-6-special-election-within-margin-of-error/)**
>
> Republican Randy Fine holds the edge ahead of a Special Election for Congress.
Politico article: [‘A lot closer than people expected’: GOP worries, Dem cash dominate tense Florida special election](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/26/fine-weil-florida-special-election-00249679)
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### Author:  [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qadgop_the_Mercotan)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/3 "2025-03-26T18:11:14Z")
Here in Wisconsin, we’re hoping our state Supreme Court race tilts to the liberal Susan Crawford over her opponent conservative Brad Schimel. This would preserve the court’s current liberal majority, which was only recently achieved in April 2023. At that time, the liberal candidate received 55.5% of the vote. So I’m hopeful.
Elon’s been in the state, saying he’ll give $100 to every Wisconsin voter who signs a petition denouncing ‘activist judges’. The election is April 1. [The race and Elon](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/wisconsin-court-race-tests-trumps-approval-musk-pours-millions-into-campaign-2025-03-26/).
Wisconsin is such purple state. In 2020 it went for Biden by 20k votes out of 3.3 million cast. In 2024 it went for Trump by 30k out of 3.4 million cast, yet also re-elected Democrat Tammy Baldwin to the Senate by 30K votes. So there were a surprising number of Trump voters who also voted for her, or at least didn’t vote for her opponent.
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### Author:  [@Si\_Amigo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Si_Amigo)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/4 "2025-03-26T19:23:11Z")
Well, you just know that the republicans are going to take notice of this and react! There reaction will be to hurry up and suppress voter registration and gerrymander even more so. If Musk can’t buy votes for $100 then he needs to offer more.
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### Author:  [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/5 "2025-03-26T19:26:21Z")
I do think there’s an argument to be made to let Trump make a massive mess before the mid terms. And if you look at the map, there are a good number of Republican Senate seats up which are in states that HAVE swung Democrat for president and Congress in the past.
Hell, if Kentucky can elect a Democratic Governor, it can elect a Democratic Senator.
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### Author:  [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/6 "2025-03-26T19:31:34Z")
> [@OldOlds](#):
>
> I do think there’s an argument to be made to let Trump make a massive mess before the mid terms.
He’s already made a massive mess. Democrats will have that to run on for any election from here on out.
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### Author:  [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/7 "2025-03-26T19:35:45Z")
Minor correction or amendment to the topic title; “bye election” isn’t, I think, a phrase used in the United States. Don’t Americans normally talk about special elections instead?
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### Author:  [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/8 "2025-03-26T19:39:42Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#):
>
> Don’t Americans normally talk about special elections instead?
Yeah, but even though I’m American, I like the term bye election better. They mean the same thing.
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### Author:  [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/9 "2025-03-26T19:40:28Z")
For the sake of clarity, though, when talking to Americans, I think using the customary term is better.
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### Author:  [@Ponch8](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ponch8)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/10 "2025-03-26T20:36:39Z")
I thought it was “by election” and not “bye election.” I first learned the term by reading _The Economist_.
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### Author:  [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/11 "2025-03-26T20:39:24Z")
Even with the massive campaign cash difference I don’t see an upset happening in FL-06. A Democrat winning that seat would be explosive.
The WI Supreme Court is going to be close but I do believe the Democrats have a much better chance holding there.
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### Author:  [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/12 "2025-03-26T20:49:55Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#):
>
> “bye election” isn’t, I think, a phrase used in the United States.
I was afraid the Canadians had invaded.
Then I wasn’t afraid.
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### Author:  [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/13 "2025-03-26T21:00:58Z")
> [@Si\_Amigo](#):
>
> There reaction will be to hurry up and suppress voter registration and gerrymander even more so.
Gerrymandering is indeed bad, but suppress away!
[Tuesday’s election saw 29% voter turnout.](https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/republican-josh-parsons-concedes-to-democrat-james-malone-in-36th-senate-race/article_be646be9-3095-4691-877a-fe5fbb753965.html) By contrast, Lancaster County turnout in the Trump-Harris election was [79%.](https://lancasteronline.com/news/politics/lancaster-county-gop-credits-high-republican-turnout-to-on-the-ground-campaigning/article_076d92be-9c7f-11ef-9ce7-5b9974316c15.html) That’s why, this time, there was a big swing and the Democrat won. Low turnout helps Democrats because Republicans are disproportionately lazy low propensity voters. Democrats need boring candidates who do not trigger as much GOP anger.
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### Author:  [@Mallard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mallard)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/14 "2025-03-26T21:53:37Z")
If Elon is involved it’s a “buy” election. 🤔
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### Author:  [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/15 "2025-03-26T22:20:23Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#):
>
> Democrats need boring candidates who do not trigger as much GOP anger.
The right wing has built an entire media industry dedicated to manufacturing GOP anger.
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### Author:  [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/16 "2025-03-26T22:47:21Z")
> [@Ponch8](#):
>
> “by election” and not “bye election
Apparently both are correct.
> Definitions of bye-election
>
> 1. noun
>
> a special election between regular elections
>
> **synonyms: [by-election]**([https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/by-election](https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/by-election))
>
> type of:
>
> [election](https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/election) a vote to select the winner of a position or political office
My bold.
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### Author:  [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/17 "2025-03-26T22:58:38Z")
I’m skeptical because I recall reading so many stories of this variety in 2017-2023. And we still saw MAGA win in 2024. I’m not sure this portends all that much.
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### Author:  [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/18 "2025-03-26T23:06:10Z")
Lancaster County is the home of the old-order Amish. They are very conservative, but maybe not of radical right-wingers. Could that have made a difference? I would avoid making too much of this. But the Florida byelection next week, if the Ds win that that would be an incredible shock.
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### Author:  [@natureboy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/natureboy)
#### Post date: [March 26, 2025, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/19 "2025-03-26T23:29:02Z")
If there’s a difference it’s that this MAGA administration is finally doing what is said it would do, and I think it has some people sufficiently alarmed.
Still, you raise a fair point. American democracy is stuck in a trap of voting against incumbency in nearly every election. That’s not the sign of a healthy democracy, especially when in the most recent national elections they voted for someone who’s ostensibly anti-democratic.
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### Author:  [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)
#### Post date: [March 27, 2025, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrat-upsets-in-bye-elections/1016144/20 "2025-03-27T00:40:41Z")
> [@dtilque](#):
>
> > [@OldOlds](#):
> >
> > I do think there’s an argument to be made to let Trump make a massive mess before the mid terms.
>
> He’s already made a massive mess.
I think he meant “a mess so massive that people whose only source of information is Faux News know about it.”
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