# Democratic Game Plan For 2020. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 19, 2017, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353 "2017-06-19T03:25:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 11:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/21 "2017-06-21T11:07:33Z")
Starting from about 1968 there’s been a trend that has mostly held up for presidential elections. The party in power usually gets about 8 years in the White House before the public gets weary and wants to move in a different direction. There are, of course, exceptions. Jimmy Carter only lasted 4 years and the Reagan revolution was extended 4 years by George H W Bush. But outside of that, as long as presidents are not somehow reinforcing the country’s negative self-image, then they get 8 years. Trump is already in trouble, but he has time to recover. But does he even have the DNA to do so? History still suggests, however, that he should have the wind at his back…provided he isn’t turning the ship around and sailing in the wrong direction. Which he might be. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/22 "2017-06-21T12:47:02Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Starting from about 1968 there’s been a trend that has mostly held up for presidential elections. The party in power usually gets about 8 years in the White House before the public gets weary and wants to move in a different direction. This is why it’s so frustrating when folks disparage the popular vote: it obscures flaws in arguments. The public certainly didn’t want to move in a different direction this time. Clinton won the public’s vote. What happened is that a small number of people in a small number of states bucked the national trend toward maintaining a Democrat in office. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/23 "2017-06-21T16:38:49Z")
NEVER allow your opponent to tell people who YOU are. YOU tell them who YOU are, as loudly and as often as required. And as for the “Perot effect”, when an incumbent President can’t get better than 38% of the vote, he’s got nobody to blame but himself. Think about this. trump is Perot with a major party behind him. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/24 "2017-06-21T16:58:29Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > Best thing the Republicans could hope for in 2020 is Hillary to be in the running. She’s political poison now, as is any Clinton. Yes, the Russian and Rove propaganda machine did really well, aided by the Bernie-Bros and Sandernistas. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/25 "2017-06-21T20:10:56Z")
Asahi wrote: “Starting from about 1968 there’s been a trend that has mostly held up for presidential elections.” Curious why you started with '68 rather than, say, '52. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/26 "2017-06-21T20:39:52Z")
[Reuters on what the results yesterday mean for Democrats](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-georgia-idUSKBN19C1KK). ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/27 "2017-06-21T20:58:47Z")
> [@Anny\_Middon](#): > > Ignorant question to which I should know the answer – How much of the WWC votes in most elections? Did Trump bring out a bigger percentage of that group than Romney or McCain did? If so, can he bring them out again in 2020? > > I know a couple of people who are rabid Trump fans who I’m pretty sure didn’t vote in 2008 or 2012. I don’t know if they are outliers or representative of a fairly large group. > > I think (or maybe it’s just I hope) the dynamics in 2020 will be different for the Pubs than they were for the Dems in 2012. I believe that a lot of Pubs thought that people who voted for the first time in 2008 did so to make history by electing the first African-American president, and that many of those people would not vote in 2012. I’d like to believe that those who voted in 2016 in order to “stick it to the man” will come to believe that getting their guy in the WH didn’t really change much, and will not bother to vote in 2020. The working class is generally defined as not having a bachelor’s degree. 538 wrote an article that even after. Controlling for income, whites with a bachelor’s degree were 20-30 points less likely to support Trump. Take two people who earn 30k a year, and the one with a bachelor’s degree was much less likely to support Trump. It’s the same If they both earn 100k. The % who are without a college diploma has been shrinking. In 2004 they were 58%, in 2012 they were 53%, in 2016 they were 50% of all voters. However the % among whites is even lower. Whites were about 70% of voters in 2016 but only 33% of voters were whites without a college degree. The other 37% of whites were college graduates. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/28 "2017-06-22T01:48:56Z")
> [@E-DUB](#): > > Asahi wrote: “Starting from about 1968 there’s been a trend that has mostly held up for presidential elections.” > > Curious why you started with '68 rather than, say, '52. You certainly could make a case for that and I thought about it. I guess I just didn’t know how to factor in the JFK/LBJ transition and the decline of LBJ. The 1960s were marked with extraordinary events so that I didn’t know what to make of them. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/29 "2017-06-22T01:54:34Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > This is why it’s so frustrating when folks disparage the popular vote: it obscures flaws in arguments. The public certainly didn’t want to move in a different direction this time. Clinton won the public’s vote. What happened is that a small number of people in a small number of states bucked the national trend toward maintaining a Democrat in office. I think there’s still a place for the electoral college vote. Most of the country’s population is highly concentrated in geographically smaller areas, but the population is spread out over the entire land mass. I think the EC is the right balance between voters of various interests. What I do wish they’d change is the ridiculous laws that still permit faithless electors. It’s inevitable that, over time, an election will come down to a handful of corrupt electors who will cause great mischief and disruption to the process. The concept of an electoral ‘point’ system if you will is consistent with representative democracy; the faithless elector potentially undermines public faith in the entire system altogether. And the philosophical argument for the faithless elector’s continued existence was completely destroyed when they made Trump’s presidency official. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/30 "2017-06-22T02:00:48Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > [Reuters on what the results yesterday mean for Democrats](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-georgia-idUSKBN19C1KK). See, I don’t actually think the Democrats should be dispirited. They lost a race they had no business competing in. And yet, I’ve read several news articles suggesting that Democrats are throwing their hands up, which goes back to a problem I’ve identified in the Democratic party going back for some time. They’re a party of wimps. They’re the party of panic. I can’t stand Republican politics but I’ll give them credit for one thing: generally speaking, more often than not, they have a better sense of what they want and what they don’t. They are better at defining their agenda. They are goal oriented. They are committed and they don’t waver in pursuit of their goals. They have more determination and more discipline than Democrats. Democrats also want the easiest, most obvious route to power. They make it a point to get out the vote every 4 years but aren’t that enthusiastic about smaller races. They demonstrate a fundamental ignorance for how the system works and then seem to complain when they lose. I wish I didn’t have to write that, but it’s the truth. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/31 "2017-06-22T02:37:31Z")
Asahi wrote: “I can’t stand Republican politics but I’ll give them credit for one thing: generally speaking, more often than not, they have a better sense of what they want and what they don’t.” Well, what they don’t want certainly. But as for what they do: We’re almost six months into this administration, they’ve got functional control over all three branches and have yet to get anything of any substance done. Given what they want to do, that doesn’t bother me at all, but they really can’t use it as a selling point. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/32 "2017-06-22T03:20:35Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > See, I don’t actually think the Democrats should be dispirited. They lost a race they had no business competing in. And yet, I’ve read several news articles suggesting that Democrats are throwing their hands up, which goes back to a problem I’ve identified in the Democratic party going back for some time. They’re a party of wimps. They’re the party of panic. I can’t stand Republican politics but I’ll give them credit for one thing: generally speaking, more often than not, they have a better sense of what they want and what they don’t. They are better at defining their agenda. They are goal oriented. They are committed and they don’t waver in pursuit of their goals. They have more determination and more discipline than Democrats. Democrats also want the easiest, most obvious route to power. They make it a point to get out the vote every 4 years but aren’t that enthusiastic about smaller races. They demonstrate a fundamental ignorance for how the system works and then seem to complain when they lose. I wish I didn’t have to write that, but it’s the truth. It sounds like sour grapes, but democrats are losing seats they normally lose by 15-35 points, and now only losing them by 3-7 points. That may sound like a hollow victory, but if democrats can keep up that momentum and energy, then a lot of GOP seats that the GOP won by \<20 points in 2014 and 2016 will be up for grabs in the house. If all the democrats do is flip all the seats that cook rates as D+ or even that are currently held by republicans, and the democrats win all the R+1 and R+2 seats, that alone gives the democrats the house back. There are 25 seats that fit that description. 8 that are D+, 4 that are even, 6 that are R+1, 7 that are R+2. Georgia’s 6th is R+8, South Carolinas 5th is R+9, Montana is R+11, Kansas’s 4th is R+15. > **[Cook Partisan Voting Index | By congressional district](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index#By_congressional_district)** > > The PVIs for congressional districts are calculated based on the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. With a PVI of R+1, Michigan's 8th congressional district was determined to be the median congressional district, meaning that exactly 217 districts are more Democratic and 217 are more Republican than this district. As of 2022\[update\], in the House, there are 222 districts more Republican than the national average, and 206 districts more Democratic than the national average. The number The democrats weren’t too competitive in Montana or Kansas where they lost by 7, but they only lost by 3-4 in Georgia or South Carolina. So if you assume the democrats have the advantage in every race that is R+4, that means about 45 seats look like realistic pickups. 2018 and 2020 look like good years for the dems, but I fully expect the public to hand the house back to the GOP in 2022. Sadly. But at least Trumps agenda can be blocked starting in 2019 if the dems win the house. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2017, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/33 "2017-07-03T04:44:36Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > (post shortened) > > Chelsea! Chelsea! Chelsea! > > Somebody has to be willing to lead the Democrat Party into 2020. It might as well be her. She already has the name recognition thing going for her. Chelsea Manning won’t be 35 in 2020, and has no experience in office. Chelsea Clinton also has no experience in office, and if the party continues to be a Clinton-owned operation, well, her mom probably won’t be dead yet. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2017, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/34 "2017-07-03T04:50:08Z")
Is this really something that can be planned out this far in advance? In 2013 the Republicans were still holding “autopsies” and declaring that the party must moderate on immigration and attract non-white voters to ever win anything ever again. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2017, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/35 "2017-07-03T19:03:35Z")
While they can’t plan everything this far in advance, the Democratic Party can do everything possible to eliminate the ridiculously undemocratic caucuses. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2017, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/36 "2017-07-03T20:05:51Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > While they can’t plan everything this far in advance, the Democratic Party can do everything possible to eliminate the ridiculously undemocratic caucuses. > Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Maybe they can hold an actual primary next time instead of a coronation? Sent from my R1 HD using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2017, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/37 "2017-07-04T04:37:53Z")
> [@pjacks](#): > > Maybe they can hold an actual primary next time instead of a coronation? They did. ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2017, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/38 "2017-07-04T04:55:56Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > They did. Yeah, the DNC’s chosen candidate vs. someone who wasn’t even a democrat. Really cute political theatre. Sent from my R1 HD using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2017, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/39 "2017-07-04T05:17:57Z")
> [@pjacks](#): > > Yeah, the DNC’s chosen candidate vs. someone who wasn’t even a democrat. Really cute political theatre. Anyone could have run. In fact quite a few did. Six, in all. Hillary got the most votes. ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2017, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353/40 "2017-07-04T14:36:13Z")
Pleeaase, half of them dropped out before a single vote was cast. One dropped out right after Iowa. And what a collection of the best & brightest the party had to offer! Truly top-tier Democrats. Or maybe the Clintons convinced the party that it was Hillary’s turn & everyone else of note knew to stay away. So yes, Hillary got the most votes against a 70-year old self-described socialist who looks & sounds 90. The fact that she managed to get only 55% of the vote even against one candidate who wasn’t even a democrat should illuminate why she was a horrible choice to lead the party. If the field was full of decent pols, HRC couldn’t win. Biden, Gillibrand, Franken, etc… If truly no one else deserved the nomination but HRC, like some democrats think, then maybe the party is too far-gone to be saved. Sent from my R1 HD using Tapatalk [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-game-plan-for-2020/789353.md?page=3)