# Democratic House Math **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2022, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806 "2022-11-12T18:24:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/21 "2022-11-12T23:16:55Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Then between the election and the start of the next Congress, _fourteen_ Members-elect died. Remember back then Congress started in March, not January as it currently does. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/22 "2022-11-12T23:19:30Z")
> [@MandaJo](#): > > FWIW, I don’t think they can do it. I think the most likely outcome is like Dem 215 Rep 220. But my god, that’s still amazing. I mean, even Boebert may be scared to be too obnoxious after this. They are not going to be able to ritually impeach Biden every week. Republicans: “We’re going to impeach Biden.” Everyone: “For what?” Republicans: “We’ll figure that out later.” ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/23 "2022-11-12T23:21:00Z")
What is up with districts that still have really low vote totals counted? What is taking so long? ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/24 "2022-11-12T23:26:17Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Republicans: “We’re going to impeach Biden.” > > Everyone: “For what?” > > Republicans: “We’ll figure that out later.” Sean Hannity has been screeching for Biden’s impeachment since before Biden entered office. Surely Republicans can conslut him for his secret list of high crimes and misdemeanors. I’m guessing he wore a tan suit at some point, and has probably forgotten to salute a Coastie Seaman Recruit, demonstrating his absolute contempt for the Constitution, the American Flag, and Tom Selleck’s mustache. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/25 "2022-11-12T23:30:19Z")
Without even 5 apostates? When at least 20 come from moderate districts they won by the skin of their teeth? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/26 "2022-11-12T23:40:12Z")
I meant before the election. Oh, I agree they likely can’t pull it off now. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/27 "2022-11-12T23:50:06Z")
California is always slow. One reason is that it accepts ballots received up to a week after the election, as long as they are postmarked by Election Day. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/28 "2022-11-13T00:38:09Z")
New votes dropped in WA-03. Teeny tiny gain for the R candidate in a batch of over 15k votes. CNN has 97% in and the Dem up by 4,600+ votes. This one might get called blue soon. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/29 "2022-11-13T00:41:06Z")
Seattle Times has called it. > This is a big win in a Trump +3 district. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/30 "2022-11-13T00:44:45Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > > [@flurb](#): > > > > Then between the election and the start of the next Congress, _fourteen_ Members-elect died. > > Remember back then Congress started in March, not January as it currently does Oh, well that explains it. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![gnarator](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gnarator/32/8266_2.png) [@gnarator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnarator)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/31 "2022-11-13T00:50:35Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > conslut I like it ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/32 "2022-11-13T00:59:27Z")
So that’s one of the toss-ups going the right way. Keep 'em coming! ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/33 "2022-11-13T14:47:43Z")
> [@Tabco](#): > > WA-03 looks about right to me. That’d be a big one since it’d flip the district from R to D. Are you sure you didn’t mean CO-03? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/34 "2022-11-13T19:03:49Z")
Updated (to the best of my ability to avoid typos) for approximately noon Mountain Time 11/13. 18 races left to be called, Dems need 12 of these for house control. I sorted the tables from easiest to hardest to get based on a two proportion z-test, and put a break int the table at the 12 mark. Nothing is remarkably different from yesterday with the borderline exception of CA-41 which took about a 500 vote step in the wrong direction. | District | Current Margin (%) | Current Margin (votes) | Est. vote in | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ME-02 | +5.3% | +15,013 | 88% | | CA-49 | +4.6% | +10,732 | 75% | | CA-09 | +12.6% | +9,918 | 36% | | CA-21 | +9.2% | +7,463 | 49% | | CA-47 | +2.6% | +5,337 | 72% | | CO-08 | +0.7% | +1,691 | 97% | | OR-06 | +1.9% | +4,400 | 80% | | AZ-01 | +0.8% | +2,541 | 90% | | CA-13 | -0.2% | -84 | 46% | | CA-41 | -1.4% | -2,108 | 53% | | AZ-06 | -0.4% | -1,382 | 91% | | CA-22 | -5.0% | -2,878 | 39% | | \*\*\* | \*\*\* | \*\*\* | \*\*\* | | CO-03 | -0.4% | -1,122 | 99% | | NY-22 | -1.5% | -3,925 | 94% | | CA-03 | -6.0% | -9,962 | 51% | | OR-05 | -2.3% | -7,199 | 93% | | CA-45 | -7.4% | -12,252 | 63% | | CA-27 | -10.8% | -14,861 | 53% | ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/35 "2022-11-13T19:21:44Z")
Seems to me that if the the math puts the republicans up at 219, the smart move might be for a handful of the more centrist republicans to throw behind pelosi. That would knock down the maga wing, and would get some up the middle legislation done. As it stands now without a lead that would back bench that wing, the next 2 years will just be crazy maga drama in the committees. There are more up the middle people and should they throw behind someone who will hear them they could do some real legislating. They could go back to a tight district and campaign on the fact that they worked for their people, got things done; rather than trying to deal with the fact that the maga wing went bonkers and lose the seat. I don’t really see it happening but it should. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/36 "2022-11-13T19:46:05Z")
> [@rocking\_chair](#): > > Seems to me that if the the math puts the republicans up at 219, the smart move might be for a handful of the more centrist republicans to throw behind pelosi. That would knock down the maga wing, and would get some up the middle legislation done. How would you expect these “centrist republicans” to survive their next primary after voting for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/37 "2022-11-13T19:48:23Z")
And who are they? Name names. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/38 "2022-11-13T19:59:49Z")
The 4 who won New York. I don’t expect them to hold onto those seats next cycle. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/39 "2022-11-13T22:43:51Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > How would you expect these “centrist republicans” to survive their next primary after voting for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker? Is it too much to hope they do it for the good of the country, the way Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger did? They could flip parties and hope to win as Democrats in 2024. Admittedly they’d probably lose either way, but maybe there’s two or three that just might consider it. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/40 "2022-11-13T22:59:07Z")
OR-05 gets a call. Not a surprise. > [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806.md?page=3)