# Democratic House Math **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2022, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806 "2022-11-12T18:24:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/41 "2022-11-13T23:07:34Z")
Last batch in AZ-06 goes the wrong direction. Dem House control, always a long shot, looking near impossible. Pretty much everything has to go right from here on out. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/42 "2022-11-13T23:30:31Z")
Thanks for this @Lance_Turbo ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2022, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/43 "2022-11-13T23:36:35Z")
> [@rocking\_chair](#): > > As it stands now without a lead that would back bench that wing, the next 2 years will just be crazy maga drama in the committees. There are Democratic strategists who believe the best thing for the 2024 elections would be GOP control–by a tiny margin–of the House. The tiny margin would make it harder for them to actually harass Dr. Fauci, Joe and Kamala, Antony Blinkin, etc. with hearings and/or impeachment (or “impeachment”). They might manage some of that, but they might spend so much time squabbling that they wouldn’t get to a lot of their planned persecutions. McCarthy would be living a nightmare–also a plus for anyone who cares about democracy. He’d have less time and energy available for committing anti-democracy mischief if all his waking hours are spent wrangling the Greenes and Gohmerts. And campaigns for 2024 races would have plenty of “the Republicans were in charge of the House and what did they get done for YOU?” material to work with. I could content myself with a loss of the House given that these possibilities seem fairly likely. > (Also: thanks to Lance\_Turbo for doing all that number-crunching.) ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/44 "2022-11-14T00:20:05Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > The tiny margin would make it harder for them to actually harass Dr. Fauci, Joe and Kamala, Antony Blinkin, etc. with hearings and/or impeachment (or “impeachment”). They might manage some of that, but they might spend so much time squabbling that they wouldn’t get to a lot of their planned persecutions. I agree with this, but the tiny margin will also make it difficult for the Republicans to pass a debt limit increase or the federal budget. There are some things we as a national will need the House to actually be able to do over the next couple years. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/45 "2022-11-14T00:59:55Z")
I was thing about this. > [@flurb](#): > > It’s important to keep in mind that with a margin this close anything can happen. Since it looks like the House will be quite close, I was curious how often the House had all 435 members on a given day. Here’s how that shook out for the 117th (current) Congress. | Members | Days | | --- | --- | | 428 | 21 | | 429 | 31 | | 430 | 163 | | 431 | 100 | | 432 | 206 | | 433 | 122 | | 434 | 87 | | 435 | 0 | They were missing members day one, today, and every day in between. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/46 "2022-11-14T01:04:01Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Is it too much to hope they do it for the good of the country, the way Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger did? Are you really asking? Yes. And now they have the example of Liz Cheney to see what exactly acting “for the good of the country” will get them. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/47 "2022-11-14T01:10:21Z")
AZ-6 though has most votes out in Pima, where Engal (D) has been running 8 points up. That one seems like a decent chance. Getting to 218 though? I can’t see much of a path either. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/48 "2022-11-14T01:31:19Z")
I wonder if there are any swing-district Republicans who would like to be ambassador to Fiji or something? If I were Biden, I’d sure be making some calls… ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/49 "2022-11-14T01:34:14Z")
Big Maricopa ballot drop. Everyone’s going to be talking about Lake/Hobbs but the thread relevant news is that it changed the lead in AZ-01. If that’s in the Red column, Blue House control is impossible. FWIW, Lake gained on Hobbs with this ballot drop. She would need three more ballot drops this favorable and this size to catch Hobbs. The estimated remaining vote is less than two drops this size which is good news for Hobbs. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/50 "2022-11-14T01:42:12Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > but the thread relevant news is that it changed the lead in AZ-01 The 01 AND maintained the R lead in the 06, though granted the margins are still tiny. This was the worry about these late-arriving ballots out of Maricopa. The only plus thus far is there has been fewer gains for Lake due to the crazy - at least a few Republicans (old McCain supporters no doubt, who Lake mocked) are splitting votes. ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/51 "2022-11-14T02:23:23Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > She would need three more ballot drops this favorable and this size to catch Hobbs. The estimated remaining vote is less than two drops this size which is good news for Hobbs. This was a huge drop - 98618 ballots. Maricopa estimates 85k-95k remaining ballots: 5k in-person ballots, 73015 late early ballots (dropped off Election Day, 8373 ballots needing cure, and 430 provisional. I think Hobbs is ok, I am more worried about the AG where Mayes’ lead over Hamedeh is down to 11k. Hoping 35k Pima votes helps. Unfortunately not looking good for AZ-1 (my district) unless from the cured ballots (there is outreach from Dem groups) or if the mix somehow shifts blue tomorrow. AZ-6 is still in reach but will need a dark blue drop from Pima. AZ-6 does not include any of Maricopa County. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/52 "2022-11-14T02:24:27Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Since it looks like the House will be quite close, I was curious how often the House had all 435 members on a given day I wonder how often House members die or resign (not necc. for political reasons, maybe for health or family issues). ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/53 "2022-11-14T02:31:02Z")
After several days in a row of good news, almost everything that has come in today is bad news. Big ballot drop in CA-41 almost doubles the Republican’s lead. Looking like 215 D - 220 R is now about the best Democrats can hope for. > [@John\_DiFool](#): > > I wonder how often House members die or resign (not necc. for political reasons, maybe for health or family issues). Eighteen times in the last two years. Seems about normal at a quick glance. > **[Vacancies & Successors | US House of Representatives: History, Art &...](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Vacancies-Successors/117/)** > > “When vacancies happen in the Representation from any State, the Executive Authority thereof shall issue Writs of Election to fill such Vacancies.”— U.S. Constitution, Article I, section 2, clause 4House vacancies can be caused by death, resignation,... ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/54 "2022-11-14T02:31:39Z")
Redacted - bad math. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/55 "2022-11-14T02:34:06Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > I wonder how often House members die According to [Wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Congress_members_who_died_in_office_(2000%E2%80%93)), from 2000-2009 there were 14 Congresspeople and 4 Senators who died while in office. From 2010-2019, there were 8 Reps and 4 Senators who died while in office. Since 2020, there have been 6 Reps who passed away. 0 Senators, but as old as some of them are, there may be some in the next few years. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/56 "2022-11-14T16:02:51Z")
You forgot AK-AL, which is going to the next round. It has a very good chance of staying Dem, though I don’t know how you’d calculate those odds. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/57 "2022-11-14T16:23:52Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > You forgot AK-AL, I did not forget it. It is going blue. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/58 "2022-11-14T16:26:16Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The idea behind gerrymandering is that you create a bunch of districts where your side has a small majority, and a few districts where the other side has a blowout majority. But the downside to that is that it means that if the political winds shift enough (which needn’t be very much), you can lose a bunch of your districts at once. Which explains why they want to not count Democratic votes. I mean – all that work and the ‘Demonrats’ keep winning anyway. One country One party One leader ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/59 "2022-11-14T16:56:45Z")
Dave Wasserman (Cook Political Report) makes an interesting point about New York redistricting. Specifically that there is probably more to the story of the flipped seats than just redistricting. > ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/60 "2022-11-14T17:08:10Z")
The above may have something to do with a theory that I don’t remember the origin of about the effect of Dobbs. It goes something like Dobbs might offset the traditional things that would would lead to a Red Wave in the first mid-term election of a sitting Blue Potus, but it would have much more of an effect in states where abortion rights were less secure. E.g. reaction to Dobbs could push Kelly and Hobbs over the line in Arizona where abortions rights are uncertain, but wouldn’t help much in New York where nobody is really worried about abortion rights being taken away. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806.md?page=4)