# Democratic House Math **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2022, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806 "2022-11-12T18:24:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/61 "2022-11-14T18:14:56Z")
There are 6-7 republicans that are in areas that will be difficult to defend next go around. They could sway thing if they are smart and form alliances with the dems. If they don’t they will be trying to defend the crazy that is Jim Jordan and his crew. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/62 "2022-11-14T18:28:38Z")
> [@rocking\_chair](#): > > There are 6-7 republicans that are in areas that will be difficult to defend next go around. They could sway thing if they are smart and form alliances with the dems. This is a fantasy. Not going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/63 "2022-11-14T19:54:41Z")
Have you considered CA-34? It hasn’t been called, but both candidates are Democrats. So that’s a sure win for the Ds. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/64 "2022-11-14T19:56:00Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > It hasn’t been called, but both candidates are Democrats. So that’s a sure win for the Ds. It’s also a sure loss for the Ds. 😢 (In the sense that a Democrat is guaranteed to lose the race. Not the loss of a seat, obviously.) ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/65 "2022-11-14T20:01:35Z")
I’ve been following the various commentators. Most think the Rs will have a narrow majority. A big exception is Christopher Bouzy, who still thinks the D will barely win. His analysis is that the Dems are certain to win: AK-1 CA-6 CA-9 CA-13 CA-21 CA-22 CA-34 CA-47 CA-49 ME-2 OR-6 and still quite likely to win: CA-41 AZ-6 CO-3 I don’t know if he’s right, but I’m hopeful. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/66 "2022-11-14T20:09:29Z")
Bummer. As per 538: “ABC News is reporting that Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer is projected to win Oregon’s 5th District, defeating Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner. This light-blue seat is a big gain for Republicans, who now have 212 seats in the House according to ABC News estimates. McLeod-Skinner shook this race up in May when she defeated centrist Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader in the primary, a result that caused many election observers [to give the GOP a better shot](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-may-18-2022/) of picking up this seat. That came to pass, narrowly, as Chavez-DeRemer is on course to win by about 2 points, 51 percent to 49 percent.” ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/67 "2022-11-14T23:27:44Z")
Carville is stating that McCarthy is calling democrats to try to give him their vote to be speaker. Wow! Looks like someone is trying to find a get around. When someone is this craving for a position, I know absolutely, they should never get it. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/68 "2022-11-14T23:32:47Z")
LOL. “Sorry Kevin, I can’t talk right now. I’m binge watching my new favorite show. I’ll send you a link.” > **[Kevin Can F\*\*k Himself (TV Series 2021–2022) - IMDb](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9257258/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0)** > > Kevin Can F\*\*k Himself: Created by Valerie Armstrong. With Annie Murphy, Mary Hollis Inboden, Eric Petersen, Alex Bonifer. A look at the secret life of a sitcom wife. ---
**Author:** ![Bootb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19b73/32.png) [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/69 "2022-11-15T00:32:27Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > I agree with this, but the tiny margin will also make it difficult for the Republicans to pass a debt limit increase or the federal budget. There are some things we as a national will need the House to actually be able to do over the next couple years. For the few things that actually NEED to get done, all that is necessary is for a few Republicans to vote with the majority of the Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/70 "2022-11-15T00:36:42Z")
> [@Bootb](#): > > For the few things that actually NEED to get done, all that is necessary is for a few Republicans to vote with the majority of the Democrats. And for the Speaker to bring it to the floor for a vote. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/71 "2022-11-15T00:38:02Z")
I read that Pelosi and Schumer are going to get the debt limit raised before the new Congress takes office. Probably be difficult to do, but better than depending on Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/72 "2022-11-15T00:59:11Z")
Pima County ballot drop very bad for Engel (D). Maybe a Republican call soon. Great for Hobbs though. 👍 ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/73 "2022-11-15T01:04:37Z")
Should have checked with Dave before that last post. > ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/74 "2022-11-15T01:08:28Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > > [@Bootb](#): > > > > For the few things that actually NEED to get done, all that is necessary is for a few Republicans to vote with the majority of the Democrats. > > And for the Speaker to bring it to the floor for a vote. There is the [_discharge petition_](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discharge_petition), which allows an absolute majority of House members to have a bill “discharged” from committee and brought to the floor for a vote. But there are ways for leadership to game this. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/75 "2022-11-15T01:20:32Z")
Yikes, bad batch in Orange County. CA-45 might be out of reach and Dem lead in CA-47 cut in half now under 3k votes. CA-47 is Katie Porter. Everybody panic. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/76 "2022-11-15T01:46:00Z")
Maricopa drop probably puts AZ-01 out of reach for the Dems. Expect a call. Lake gains on Hobbs, but not at the pace she needs to. I think AZ Gov call imminent. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/77 "2022-11-15T01:49:20Z")
I was ahead of this one. > ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/78 "2022-11-15T12:06:47Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > “Sorry Kevin, I can’t talk right now. I’m binge watching my new favorite show. I’ll send you a link.” Hilarious ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/79 "2022-11-15T12:40:18Z")
But not a House seat…. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806/80 "2022-11-15T13:29:46Z")
OR-6 does indeed go Dem. > [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-house-math/974806.md?page=5)