# Democratic Q4 fundraising predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 27, 2019, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463 "2019-12-27T19:03:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2019, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/1 "2019-12-27T19:03:47Z")
Poll coming. Who do you think will win in Q4 fundraising? I’ll include the top 4 and an other although I honestly can’t see any of the second or bottom tier shocking the world. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2019, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/2 "2019-12-27T19:13:49Z")
Warren sent an email saying that Q4 fundraising was only at 17 million as of now. That’s…not good and may explain her doubling down on the fundraising purity attacks on Pete. I have no idea how much is left in her Senate campaign war chest should she need to transfer more over. > **[Elizabeth Warren's campaign sounds the alarm as fundraising pace slows about...](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/27/elizabeth-warren-campaign-sounds-alarm-as-fundraising-slows-down.html)** > > Sen. Elizabeth Warren's campaign told supporters in an email on Friday that, so far, it has raised just over $17 million in the fourth quarter, a significant drop from her fundraising haul during the third quarter. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2019, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/3 "2019-12-30T19:09:45Z")
I’m guessing buttigieg. He seems to be coming out as the younger, more charismatic alternative to Biden which means a lot of rich people want him over Warren and sanders. I’m on Bernie email list. He keeps asking for money but mostly so he can claim he got 5 million individual donations before the year ends. He doesn’t really say he wants it for the money itself (they’re even asking for a few dollars at a time). So I’m guessing sanders is OK with money this quarter and probably raised 20-30 million but is more concerned with the number of small donations total. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2019, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/4 "2019-12-30T19:27:32Z")
Probably paywalled NYT Story with some fundraising info. > **[Biden Rebounds, Warren Slows, Sanders Rolls: The Latest on the 2020 Money...](https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/12/30/us/politics/biden-warren-fundraising-democrats.amp.html)** > > An early look at fourth-quarter fund-raising shows Joseph R. Biden Jr. bouncing back, Elizabeth Warren lagging her previous benchmark and Bernie Sanders continuing to haul in cash. Twitter link to the author. [https://twitter.com/shanegoldmacher/status/1211655757856247809?s=21](https://twitter.com/shanegoldmacher/status/1211655757856247809?s=21) It looks like Sanders will lead in fundraising, but who knows how much that heart attack hurt him in October? If I had to guess as of today the big 4 would be: Sanders Buttigieg Biden Warren I voted for Buttigieg before the NYT article came out today. While I despise Sanders, I can’t deny he’s a fundraising machine with a passionate base of supporters. I thought the heart attack in October would really hurt the $$$ as candidates really need to front load their Q4 fundraising as the holidays get nearer. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2020, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/5 "2020-01-01T15:00:24Z")
Buttigieg announces early at 24.7 million. I think only Bernie might beat that. [https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/01/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-fundraising.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/01/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-fundraising.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share) NYT article is probably paywalled ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2020, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/6 "2020-01-01T22:26:41Z")
Bernie sent out an email about receiving 5 million individual donations although not revealing the donation amount. There’s a whisper number of 28.5 million which would be an amazing haul considering the heart attack scare. I assume he’s waiting for tomorrow to release the actual numbers, I was kinda surprised to see Pete release this morning given the holiday and the slow news day focusing on New Years Resolutions, hangover solutions, and legal marijuana (in the Chicago news market) ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2020, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/7 "2020-01-02T00:32:10Z")
Sanders seemed far more concerned about the number of donations than their dollar value. In an email today his campaign implied that they hoped to get 50 million donations total if he wins the primary and goes on to run in the general, at an average of $27 each. That will raise over a billion dollars which is about what a presidential campaign costs. I could see some devoted Bernie fans donating $27/month every month for a year. But still, if only a million voters do that that is only a quarter of the fundraising goal. I’m not sure if Sanders can run a campaign on small donations alone. It would be groundbreaking if he did, but I’m not sure if its possible. Then again, ActBlue raised 1.5 billion in 2018, and. Mostly in small donations. Plus around another billion in 2019. > **[Exclusive: Fired-up liberals raise $1 billion on website for candidates,...](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/02/liberals-donations-through-actblue-top-1-billion-ahead-midterms/884400002/)** > > The record fundraising on ActBlue's online platform offers one sign that the liberal activism fueled by President Trump's election isn't slowing down.The group predicts donations will top $1.5 billion by year’s end, double the amount the fundraising... > **[Democrats donated more than $700 million in 2019 through ActBlue, officials say](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-donated-more-than-700-million-in-2019-through-actblue-officials-say/2019/10/16/c1f622e6-f021-11e9-8693-f487e46784aa_story.html)** > > ActBlue donations are on track to exceed $1 billion in 2019 alone, signaling a banner election cycle for small-dollar fundraising on the left. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2020, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/8 "2020-01-02T00:47:02Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Sanders seemed far more concerned about the number of donations than their dollar value. > > In an email today his campaign implied that they hoped to get 50 million donations total if he wins the primary and goes on to run in the general, at an average of $27 each. That will raise over a billion dollars which is about what a presidential campaign costs. > > I could see some devoted Bernie fans donating $27/month every month for a year. But still, if only a million voters do that that is only a quarter of the fundraising goal. > > I’m not sure if Sanders can run a campaign on small donations alone. It would be groundbreaking if he did, but I’m not sure if its possible. > > Then again, ActBlue raised 1.5 billion in 2018, and. Mostly in small donations. Plus around another billion in 2019. > > [Liberals' donations through ActBlue top $1 billion ahead of midterms](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/02/liberals-donations-through-actblue-top-1-billion-ahead-midterms/884400002/) > > [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-donated-more-than-700-million-in-2019-through-actblue-officials-say/2019/10/16/c1f622e6-f021-11e9-8693-f487e46784aa\_story.html](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-donated-more-than-700-million-in-2019-through-actblue-officials-say/2019/10/16/c1f622e6-f021-11e9-8693-f487e46784aa_story.html) Yeah, I’ve never seen the focus on the number of donations as being important. If I want to give $100 to a candidate, does it really matter if I make a $100 donation once, twenty $5 donations or 100 $1 donations. It’s kinda like how people tout how enthusiastic Bernie’s voters are. The vote counts the same, this isn’t Olympic synchronised diving with extra style points for enthusiasm. It will be interesting to see his fundraising. He could have released the dollar amount today rather just the the donation numbers. I assume he’s waiting for tomorrow and a normal work and news day. I think, had he truly blow out Buttigieg, say 30 million or more, he would have released that today. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2020, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/9 "2020-01-02T13:02:07Z")
Wow! Bernie’s Q4 came in at a mind blowing $34.5 million. That’s much higher than I thought. For a guy who started the quarter with a heart attack, I simply can’t believe it. That surely is going to be the Q4 winner. [https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/476472-sanders-campaign-says-345-million-raised-in-fourth-quarter](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/476472-sanders-campaign-says-345-million-raised-in-fourth-quarter) I can’t find a detailed breakdown yet , but I’m going to assume there were no transfers from his Senate war chest. Bernie, I despise you, but I tip my hat to you. ---
**Author:** ![Emily\_Litella](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/emily_litella/32/3370_2.png) [@Emily\_Litella](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Emily_Litella)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2020, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/10 "2020-01-02T14:52:47Z")
Bernie is doing great after his heart attack, his health is even better than before. [Sanders’s Doctors Say He’s Fit for Presidency After Heart Attack](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sanders-s-doctors-say-he-s-fit-for-presidency-after-heart-attack/ar-BBYtFvh?ocid=00000000) ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2020, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/11 "2020-01-02T15:06:17Z")
> [@Emily\_Litella](#): > > Bernie is doing great after his heart attack, his health is even better than before. [Sanders’s Doctors Say He’s Fit for Presidency After Heart Attack](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sanders-s-doctors-say-he-s-fit-for-presidency-after-heart-attack/ar-BBYtFvh?ocid=00000000) And I’ll believe that just as much as Trump’s doctors but that’s not the point of this thread. I tip my hat again to Bernie: he kicked ass and took names with his Q4 fundraising. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2020, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/12 "2020-01-02T15:44:14Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Wow! Bernie’s Q4 came in at a mind blowing $34.5 million. That’s much higher than I thought. For a guy who started the quarter with a heart attack, I simply can’t believe it. That surely is going to be the Q4 winner. [https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/476472-sanders-campaign-says-345-million-raised-in-fourth-quarter](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/476472-sanders-campaign-says-345-million-raised-in-fourth-quarter) > > I can’t find a detailed breakdown yet , but I’m going to assume there were no transfers from his Senate war chest. > > Bernie, I despise you, but I tip my hat to you. I’m a Sanders supporter, he has a lot of loyalty from his base who will probably not be affected by things like a heart attack in a 78 year old. Swing voters may, but his base wouldn’t. However Sander’s base is probably only about ~10 million people at most. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2020, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/13 "2020-01-02T16:41:10Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I’m a Sanders supporter, he has a lot of loyalty from his base who will probably not be affected by things like a heart attack in a 78 year old. Swing voters may, but his base wouldn’t. > > However Sander’s base is probably only about ~10 million people at most. Yeah, there’s no doubt he’s got the most fervent supporters and it’s obvious they stuck with him heart attack be dammed. I’m a Pete supporter and I would stop donating to him if he suffered a heart attack. I’d wait until I knew he was healthy and back out on the trail before resuming donations. And perhaps that’s what some Sanders people did. Once Bernie was back out there, they may have made catch up donations. ---
**Author:** ![Emily\_Litella](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/emily_litella/32/3370_2.png) [@Emily\_Litella](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Emily_Litella)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2020, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/14 "2020-01-02T18:42:03Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > And I’ll believe that just as much as Trump’s doctors but **that’s not the point of this thread**. > > I tip my hat again to Bernie: he kicked ass and took names with his Q4 fundraising. Sorry, I guess I got confused by you bringing it up in post # 4 and again in post #6, then in post #9 and now I see it again in post #13. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2020, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/15 "2020-01-02T19:25:50Z")
> [@Emily\_Litella](#): > > Sorry, I guess I got confused by you bringing it up in post # 4 and again in post #6, then in post #9 and now I see it again in post #13. The reason I brought it up was the effect on fundraising. For the purposes of this thread, I don’t care if Bernie is on his deathbed or running the Boston Marathon today, this thread is about Q4 Democratic fundraising and how it’ll affect their campaigns going forward. As I’ve said twice, Bernie kicked ass in Q4 fundraising and has plenty of money to keep his campaign going, hire staff and open field offices. Bernie’s staff can go to bed at night knowing the check will clear. Lack of money killed the Harris and Beto campaigns along with questionable decisions about how to spend the money they had. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2020, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/16 "2020-01-02T19:30:38Z")
Biden reports at $22.7 million. That’s not great and I can’t wait to see if that means his support is a mile wide but an inch deep. A former VP shouldn’t be behind the former mayor of South Bend and a Senator from Vermont. > **[Biden raises $23 million in 4th quarter, his top result to date](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/02/biden-raises-23-million-top-result-092759)** > > Biden’s cash haul for the final quarter of 2019 is a marked improvement from a disappointing third quarter report. Ok, Liz, we’re waiting on you. It’ll be interesting to see if she tries to bury it on a Friday afternoon news dump. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2020, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/17 "2020-01-02T19:39:15Z")
I thought Warren said she was near 17 million near the end of hte quarter. If you assume some end of the quarter last minute donations, I’m guessing she got around ~$20 million. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2020, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/18 "2020-01-02T19:52:02Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I thought Warren said she was near 17 million near the end of hte quarter. If you assume some end of the quarter last minute donations, I’m guessing she got around ~$20 million. I’ll guess 20-21 million as well and that’s really not good for her campaign. I think wasting December on fundraising purity on top of the M4A flip flop may have really hurt her ability to raise money in Q4 and may partially explain Bernie’s amazing numbers. Of course we’re only getting the early numbers now and I’ll be very eager to see the full FEC reports in the middle of the month. Cash on hand as well as if any money came from campaign transfers. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2020, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/19 "2020-01-02T20:48:51Z")
Yang reported a very impressive 16.5 million, far more than I would have thought and ten million more than Q3. That’s not the numbers of a minor gadfly so he will be around for a while. I’ve heard his organization is pretty lean so he probably won’t burn though the cash super quickly, but he’s also got to stay viable in IA and NH which means expensive TV ads. NYT link, may be paywalled. > **[Andrew Yang Raised $16.5 Million in the Last 3 Months, His Campaign Says...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/us/politics/andrew-yang-fundraising.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share)** > > Donations to Mr. Yang in the fourth quarter of 2019 were his highest in any such period and put him among the top fund-raisers in the Democratic presidential field. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2020, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/20 "2020-01-02T23:01:43Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Biden reports at $22.7 million. That’s not great and I can’t wait to see if that means his support is a mile wide but an inch deep. A former VP shouldn’t be behind the former mayor of South Bend and a Senator from Vermont. > > [https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/02/biden-raises-23-million-top-result-092759](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/02/biden-raises-23-million-top-result-092759) It is also the highest amount Biden has had yet. So it’s actually good news for him (especially when you consider his terrible 3Q). [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463.md?page=2)