# Democratic Q4 fundraising predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 27, 2019, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463 "2019-12-27T19:03:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2020, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/21 "2020-01-03T14:26:33Z")
And we now have Warren in at 21.2 million, last place among the big 4. [https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/476614-warren-raises-212-million-in-fourth-quarter-of-2019](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/476614-warren-raises-212-million-in-fourth-quarter-of-2019) It’s clear wasting December on fundraising purity wasn’t a good strategy. ---
**Author:** ![vislor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/vislor/32/5933_2.png) [@vislor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vislor)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2020, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/22 "2020-01-03T14:40:52Z")
These numbers were huge to me and so I looked it up. > **[2020 Presidential and Vice Presidential Debate Coverage](https://www.investopedia.com/presidential-debate-recaps-5077379)** > > Here’s the schedule and rules for this year’s presidential and vice presidential debates, as well as our recaps of the highlights of each. Just under $1B was spent on the reelection of President Obama in 2012. > [@](#): > > The 2016 Election > At the time, many estimates for the presidential election in 2016 said it would cost at least $3 billion; some even put the number as high as $10 billion. At $2.4 billion, it fell a bit short of that but was still a staggering amount. Among the two nominees, Hillary Clinton’s campaign spent a total of $768 million, vastly more than the $398 million Donald Trump’s campaign spent, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. That $1.16 billion total is actually lower than the 2012 election’s $1.97 billion total, the first decline in decades, though it doesn’t take into account the value of “earned media” (that is, free media) coverage that the candidates (especially Trump) benefited from. Federal Election Commission filings show that Trump personally contributed a total of $66 million toward his campaign, while Clinton contributed $1.4 million of her own money. So, even thirty million a quarter is not as much as needed??? :eek::eek: Wow. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2020, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/23 "2020-01-03T15:10:13Z")
Klobuchar also shocks with 11.4 million way up from 4.8 million in Q3. This looks like a 6 person race for the time being. The huge increases for both Klobuchar and Yang are really surprising and I wonder if it means that a lot of former Beto and Harris supporters are drifting towards them than the big 4. > **[Klobuchar brings in $11.4 million in fourth quarter](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/476609-klobuchar-brings-in-114-million-in-fourth-quarter/)** > > Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D-Minn.) presidential campaign said on Friday it brought in $11.4 million, marking a major spike from her third-quarter haul of $4.8 million. The latest f… ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2020, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/24 "2020-01-03T15:35:32Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > And we now have Warren in at 21.2 million, last place among the big 4. [https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/476614-warren-raises-212-million-in-fourth-quarter-of-2019](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/476614-warren-raises-212-million-in-fourth-quarter-of-2019) > > It’s clear wasting December on fundraising purity wasn’t a good strategy. Why would that be the case? If she’d raised $4M more (which would have put her ahead of Biden and Buttigieg wrt Q4 fundraising), how much difference would that have made to the viability of her campaign? A candidate has to raise enough to be competitive, to be able to get their message out. The Q4 differences between Biden, Buttigieg, and Warren just aren’t big enough to make a difference. Look at the fundraising numbers for the year - Biden’s in 4th place, man, his campaign must be going down the tubes, amirite? :rolleyes: Buttigieg’s outraised everyone but Sanders, not just for Q4 but for the year, and he’s still [at 7.5% per 538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/). The top four all have enough money to maintain topnotch campaign staffs and get their respective messages out. A few million either way isn’t going to make much difference. How people respond to their messages will. ETA: Got Q1-Q3 numbers from [here](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/2020-democratic-primary-presidential-candidates-reveal-third-quarter-fundraising-totals/). ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2020, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/25 "2020-01-03T16:59:42Z")
> [@vislor](#): > > These numbers were huge to me and so I looked it up. > > [2020 Presidential and Vice Presidential Debate Coverage](https://www.investopedia.com/insights/cost-of-becoming-president/) > > Just under $1B was spent on the reelection of President Obama in 2012. > > So, even thirty million a quarter is not as much as needed??? :eek::eek: > > Wow. 30 million a quarter isn’t close to enough sadly. In an email, Sanders mentioned how if he wins the primary he wants 50 million contributions of an average of $20-30 each. I’m not sure if that’s possible but if it is it would be a campaign funded entirely by small donors. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2020, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/26 "2020-01-03T20:46:48Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > And we now have Warren in at 21.2 million, last place among the big 4. [https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/476614-warren-raises-212-million-in-fourth-quarter-of-2019](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/476614-warren-raises-212-million-in-fourth-quarter-of-2019) > > It’s clear wasting December on fundraising purity wasn’t a good strategy. Doesn’t Sanders have the same ‘fundraising purity’? And he outraised everyone. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2020, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/27 "2020-01-03T20:52:57Z")
> [@ISiddiqui](#): > > Doesn’t Sanders have the same ‘fundraising purity’? And he outraised everyone. But that’s been Sanders schtick since 2016, probably earlier since he’s faced nominal opposition in a cheap state like Vermont. Warren pulled her nonsense after doing the exact same things she tried to blame Pete for in 2018, loading Ho her senate war chest in anticipation of a presidential run. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2020, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/28 "2020-01-03T21:04:58Z")
I feel like you are bringing your bias into a lot of these results, tbh. Warren started falling from the polls quite substantially since October. She’s gone from 23% in the national polls to 15%. Had nothing to do with fundraising purity. Had more to do with how she handled her M4A plans. Anyways in terms of % gains since 3Q, all the major players except Warren seemingly did pretty well - the biggest winners seem to be Klobuchar and Yang with Biden not far behind: > > > Tim Hogan @timjhogan ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2020, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463/29 "2020-01-04T02:49:16Z")
> [@ISiddiqui](#): > > I feel like you are bringing your bias into a lot of these results, tbh. Warren started falling from the polls quite substantially since October. She’s gone from 23% in the national polls to 15%. Had nothing to do with fundraising purity. Had more to do with how she handled her M4A plans. > > Anyways in terms of % gains since 3Q, all the major players except Warren seemingly did pretty well - the biggest winners seem to be Klobuchar and Yang with Biden not far behind: > > [https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1213075543299645441](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1213075543299645441) I agree completely that the M4A flip flop hurt her. Especially at a time when the heart attack should have meant her gathering $$$ and voters. The wine cave nonsense on the debate stage was an epic blunder and it showed with the endless and desperate end of year emails. Even tonight, I got a new one when she talks about being about being outraised by the rest of the big 4. I’ll be quite interested to see the burn rate and cash on hand for her campaign when the final FEC report is released. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democratic-q4-fundraising-predictions/845463.md?page=1)