# Democrats are headed for crushing victory in 2020 if they play their cards right **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 10, 2016, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327 "2016-11-10T05:17:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/1 "2016-11-10T05:17:38Z")
There is every indication that the Republicans will lose disastrously in 2020, for a number of reasons: 1. Trump is virtually guaranteed to be deeply unpopular by then, if he is even still POTUS. 2. The Republicans have many more Senate seats to defend in 2020 than the Democrats, due to Republican gains from the 2014 midterms. 3. Trump won’t be able to deliver on his promises to his core voters, who will be angry at him then. 4. In the same way that some folks who date abusive people for the “excitement” eventually begin to long for “boring but good” partners after a while, the American voting electorate, after 4 years of random, haphazard, here-and-there, unpredictable, bombastic Trump, will be desperately longing for a stable, plain, bland, establishment candidate again - and this is key - the Democrats will be committing a big blunder if they believe that the lesson of 2016 is that they need to nominate a celebrity or anti-establishment candidate to win. They needed to go anti-establishment this year (and failed,) but need to be _ **pro** _-establishment in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![DerekMichaels00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f14d63/32.png) [@DerekMichaels00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DerekMichaels00)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/2 "2016-11-10T05:23:50Z")
2016 taught me something very profound: NEVER UNDERESTIMATE DONALD J. TRUMP. He can be a likable guy when he wants, and expect him to use that as POTUS to pump his approvals. Getting him out will be very difficult. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/3 "2016-11-10T05:54:11Z")
It’s not about winning elections. It’s about living in a decent country. I don’t want the Democrats to win because the Republicans wrecked the country. I’m hoping that Trump surprises me and turns out to be a great President. ---
**Author:** ![ganthet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de0a6/32.png) [@ganthet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ganthet)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/4 "2016-11-10T06:02:41Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I don’t want the Democrats to win because the Republicans wrecked the country. > > I’m hoping that Trump surprises me and turns out to be a great President. The arc of history is long, but the tenor of Trump’s policy ideas do not bend towards being what most people in the U.S. would consider great. Nor do the very limited policy proposals offered in the past few years by Congressional Republicans when they weren’t solely focused on simply repealing Obamacare and obstructing. It is possible to hope that Trump manages to eek out some positive change in America while also realizing that it is not likely and that preparing to replace him with someone who is more coherent, sober, compassionate, selfless, curious, and careful would be a good idea. Long story short - hope is not a plan. And in matters of national and international importance, it’s best to have a plan for all reasonable contingencies. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/5 "2016-11-10T06:06:27Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > It’s not about winning elections. It’s about living in a decent country. > > I don’t want the Democrats to win because the Republicans wrecked the country. +1 > [@ganthet](#): > > The arc of history is long, but the tenor of Trump’s policy ideas do not bend towards being what most people in the U.S. would consider great. Nor do the very limited policy proposals offered in the past few years by Congressional Republicans when they weren’t solely focused on simply repealing Obamacare and obstructing. > > It is possible to hope that Trump manages to eek out some positive change in America while also realizing that it is not likely and that preparing to replace him with someone who is more coherent, sober, compassionate, selfless, curious, and careful would be a good idea. Long story short - hope is not a plan. And in matters of national and international importance, it’s best to have a plan for all reasonable contingencies. Another +1. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/6 "2016-11-10T06:27:56Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > There is every indication that the Republicans will lose disastrously in 2020, for a number of reasons: > > 1. Trump is virtually guaranteed to be deeply unpopular by then, if he is even still POTUS. > > 2. The Republicans have many more Senate seats to defend in 2020 than the Democrats, due to Republican gains from the 2014 midterms. > > 3. Trump won’t be able to deliver on his promises to his core voters, who will be angry at him then. > > 4. In the same way that some folks who date abusive people for the “excitement” eventually begin to long for “boring but good” partners after a while, the American voting electorate, after 4 years of random, haphazard, here-and-there, unpredictable, bombastic Trump, will be desperately longing for a stable, plain, bland, establishment candidate again - and this is key - the Democrats will be committing a big blunder if they believe that the lesson of 2016 is that they need to nominate a celebrity or anti-establishment candidate to win. They needed to go anti-establishment this year (and failed,) but need to be _ **pro** _-establishment in 2020. You realize this election means that politics is not going to be easily predictable for the next decade or so. There might be a party realignment going on that may lead to a third party or one of the two big parties being a centrist party. It’s unpredictable right now. A lot of it has to do with how Trump governs and that’s going to take time to see. ---
**Author:** ![Rigamarole](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/77aa72/32.png) [@Rigamarole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rigamarole)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 7:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/7 "2016-11-10T07:25:33Z")
Lol. Have you really not learned anything? ---
**Author:** ![aldiboronti](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9fc348/32.png) [@aldiboronti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aldiboronti)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 7:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/8 "2016-11-10T07:27:47Z")
One bubble bursts, another one instantly forms. ---
**Author:** ![Rigamarole](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/77aa72/32.png) [@Rigamarole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rigamarole)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 7:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/9 "2016-11-10T07:29:13Z")
I just want to point out how [incredibly wrong you were](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19760283&postcount=5006) recently, and now instead of taking a step back and doing some self-reflection over your gross failure to comprehend the zeitgeist in this country, you’re now confidently issuing more bogus predictions? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 9:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/10 "2016-11-10T09:59:33Z")
Democrats will likely have an opportunity in 2020, but what happens depends more on Republican performance than anything Democrats do. The opportunity of the incumbent party is that if they please most people, then they will remain the incumbent party. Of course, assuming Republicans follow their usual pattern, Democrats will get the ball again in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/11 "2016-11-10T16:16:14Z")
> [@Rigamarole](#): > > I just want to point out how [incredibly wrong you were](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19760283&postcount=5006) recently, and now instead of taking a step back and doing some self-reflection over your gross failure to comprehend the zeitgeist in this country, you’re now confidently issuing more bogus predictions? Yes, I was wrong. 🙂 Yes, I am predicting crushing Democratic victory in 2020. 🙂 > [@Rigamarole](#): > > Lol. > > Have you really not learned anything? Nope. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/12 "2016-11-10T16:29:52Z")
Forgot to add: The Democrats were done in by low turnout this year. They’ll have massive turnout in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/13 "2016-11-10T16:35:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Democrats will likely have an opportunity in 2020, but what happens depends more on Republican performance than anything Democrats do. The opportunity of the incumbent party is that if they please most people, then they will remain the incumbent party. > > Of course, assuming Republicans follow their usual pattern, Democrats will get the ball again in 2020. I’m with **Little Nemo**. I don’t want a great opportunity in 2020 if the price is that Trump and the GOP do great damage to the nation first. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/14 "2016-11-10T16:40:30Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Forgot to add: The Democrats were done in by low turnout this year. They’ll have massive turnout in 2020. And I have to add: Also the Democrats won the popular vote. Close, but still shows how divided we are and we’ll need to ask Trump to maintain his promise to unite the nation. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/15 "2016-11-10T16:45:09Z")
And if you’re wrong in 2020, you’ll simply start issuing equally confident predictions about 2024. Right? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/16 "2016-11-10T16:45:20Z")
Does anyone have data on how high Republican turnout was this year? Because if Republican turnout was high, and Democratic turnout was low, then that indicates that the GOP already hit its ceiling whereas the Democratic ceiling is higher, indicating that if \*both \*parties have high turnout, the Democrats would win. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/17 "2016-11-10T16:46:39Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > And if you’re wrong in 2020, you’ll simply start issuing equally confident predictions about 2024. > > Right? Yes. 🙂 But - for clarification - my thread says the Democrats will win in a landslide \*if \*they play their cards correctly. So there is an if; it’s not a blanket “Blue will win big in 2020” prediction. ---
**Author:** ![desertmonk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@desertmonk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/desertmonk)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/18 "2016-11-10T16:49:25Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > 1. Trump won’t be able to deliver on his promises to his core voters, who will be angry at him then. Snipped. EVERYTHING about Trump says he will scapegoat Muslims, foreigners, liberals, etc., and his core is already right there with him. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/19 "2016-11-10T16:52:17Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > … > 2) The Republicans have many more Senate seats to defend in 2020 than the Democrats, due to Republican gains from the 2014 midterms. > … Assuming no changes in the current composition of Class 2 of the Senate there will be 22 Republican and 11 Democratic seats in contention in 2020. Some of the incumbents will be getting up there in years by then and so there may be some retirements. Of those who will be over age 75 by the time of the 2020 election there are 7 (ID, KS, KY, MS, OK, TN, & WY) Republicans and only 1 (IL) Democrat in Class 2 of the Senate. But don’t just blow right past 2018. Assuming no changes in the current composition of Class 1 of the Senate there will be 8 Republican, 23 Democratic, and 2 Democratic-leaning Independent seats in contention in 2018. That is a lot to defend in a non-presidential year election. Of course there will be some old codgers up in 2018 too who might choose to retire. Of those who will be over age 75 by the time of the 2018 election there are only 1 (UT) Republicans, 3 (CA, FL, MD) Democrats and 1 (VT) Independent in Class 1 of the Senate. Meanwhile the Democrats really need to put some effort into 2020 state legislative races. It’s a census year and the winners will get to gerrymander for the coming 10 years. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327/20 "2016-11-10T17:22:52Z")
This is how Democrats fall victim to one of the classic blunders, setting sights on 2020 and not 2018. Every four years (the off-Presidential years) Democrats go, “ah shit, we forgot about midterms!” But that’s how you set up for 2020. There will be GOP seats ripe for pickin’ if the Democrats can get organized in time. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-are-headed-for-crushing-victory-in-2020-if-they-play-their-cards-right/771327.md?page=2)