# Democrats have a realistic path to capture 400 electoral votes in the 2028 election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 5, 2026, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-have-a-realistic-path-to-capture-400-electoral-votes-in-the-2028-election/1034491 "2026-11-05T15:04:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-have-a-realistic-path-to-capture-400-electoral-votes-in-the-2028-election/1034491/1 "2026-11-05T15:04:26Z")
Extrapolating outcomes from a midterm onto a presidential election is messy, but for the first time since 1988, it’s plausible that one political party is going to capture 400 electoral votes in a presidential election. The path is there. If the 2028 Democratic candidate carries all of the red/swing states that just flipped blue in this past election or have gone blue at some point recently - Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Georgia - they’re over 380 already. Getting Florida would propel them to over 410. That’s not even taking into account Nebraska’s weird single prone-to-defect electoral vote. What’s going to help Democrats is that Trump isn’t going to make himself any less obnoxious between now and Nov-2028. He just can’t help it or change his ways. He will not do anything that will improve Republicans’ chances in any way. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-have-a-realistic-path-to-capture-400-electoral-votes-in-the-2028-election/1034491/2 "2026-11-05T15:12:38Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > What’s going to help Democrats is that Trump isn’t going to make himself any less obnoxious between now and Nov-2028. I don’t think we know that for sure. He may decline in health. He may be told to just focus on things he likes - ballrooms, arches, etc. He may die. Either way, there is absolutely a chance now that the GOP jettisons him pretty explicitly, at least with respect to 2028. Whether he will allow that is an open question. I tend to agree that his ego (and senility) won’t let him. I’m also not sure why you have Missouri on your list… maybe you meant Kansas? ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-have-a-realistic-path-to-capture-400-electoral-votes-in-the-2028-election/1034491/3 "2026-11-05T15:14:46Z")
Electoral optimism has always been the party’s worst enemy. Democratic voters have to have the shit scared out of them before enough of them go to the polls to create a landslide. Chances are, the GOP will dig up another celebrity candidate with name recognition that no serious Democratic candidate can match. A good portion of voters in Presidential elections are, frankly, idiots who just want to be entertained. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-have-a-realistic-path-to-capture-400-electoral-votes-in-the-2028-election/1034491/4 "2026-11-05T15:29:42Z")
See here: > [@Frontrunners for Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, {DO NOT rehash past candidates}](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/frontrunners-for-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028-do-not-rehash-past-candidates/1013036/2867): > > I agree as to your thoughts that it’ll be at least partly a referendum on trump (assuming he stays in office that long). But … as I said a few posts ago, do not misread the room. The Overton window is right where it was last week. It will also be a referendum on how the Ds do in the next 2 years. Pissing away political capital and momentum on quixotic moral causes will hurt. Delivering serious financial relief to the middle class and down will help. Especially if delivered through regulated w… The OP’s optimism is wildly unrealistic. Could it happen? It’s possible. But the Ds will need a lot more luck and organizational skill and determination and singular focus than they’ve shown in 30 years. That shit doesn’t grow like weeds; it takes years to carefully nurture to maturity. We don’t have years. We have a few months. ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-have-a-realistic-path-to-capture-400-electoral-votes-in-the-2028-election/1034491/5 "2026-11-05T16:03:09Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > The OP’s optimism is wildly unrealistic. Yep, while it’s fun to dream about, this seems to be a pattern of these “pie in the sky” predictions made by the OP. In 2016, [Hillary was gonna get 358 EV’s](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/14) and then in 2020, [Biden was gonna come up just barely short of 400 EV’s](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/5). ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-have-a-realistic-path-to-capture-400-electoral-votes-in-the-2028-election/1034491/6 "2026-11-05T16:28:35Z")
I put Missouri on the list because it was also a state where the Rs took a heavy beating and also lost a Senate seat to the D’s. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-have-a-realistic-path-to-capture-400-electoral-votes-in-the-2028-election/1034491/7 "2026-11-05T16:43:48Z")
The Democrats won a House district (mine, MO-2) but not a Senate seat. They did pick up a few state house seats and defeated a few ballot initiatives. But Missouri is far from a swing state, IMO. Mississippi might be closer. South Carolina definitely is. ---
**Author:** ![GreysonCarlisle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@GreysonCarlisle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreysonCarlisle)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-have-a-realistic-path-to-capture-400-electoral-votes-in-the-2028-election/1034491/8 "2026-11-05T16:55:00Z")
Yeah, Missouri is pretty red outside the biggest cities, and even there, there’s still a lot of racism and sexism. I don’t think we can extrapolate much from the big blue wave except that people are fed up with high prices and war. While Trump’s brand may be tarnished, probably irreparably, conservatives haven’t really switched parties or come around to liberal ideas. They’re just tired of paying so much and getting “but my new ballroom!” as a response from the government. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-have-a-realistic-path-to-capture-400-electoral-votes-in-the-2028-election/1034491/9 "2026-11-05T18:53:39Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Either way, there is absolutely a chance now that the GOP jettisons him pretty explicitly, at least with respect to 2028. Whether he will allow that is an open question. I tend to agree that his ego (and senility) won’t let him. That seems to me the biggest issue Republicans will have in 2028. Do they run against the Trump record and risk angering the MAGA base, or do they stick with Trump and ride him all the way to rock bottom? Having to make that choice means Democrats start as the favorites, but 400 does seem unrealistic to me. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-have-a-realistic-path-to-capture-400-electoral-votes-in-the-2028-election/1034491/10 "2026-11-05T19:24:46Z")
It is within the realm of possibility that the Electoral College total will be a moot exercise if the [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is enacted by many of the newly Blue states. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/democrats-have-a-realistic-path-to-capture-400-electoral-votes-in-the-2028-election/1034491/11 "2026-11-05T19:35:29Z")
See also this thread started yesterday: > [@Will the democrats enact the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-the-democrats-enact-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact/1034443): > > In both 2000 and 2016, the democrats won the national popular vote but lost the electoral college. In response democrats on the state level have passed the national popular vote interstate compact. it states that their states electoral votes will go to the popular vote winner of the election, not the winner of the statewide election. Currently 18 states + DC have signed onto the compact, making up 222 EVs total. It doesn’t go into effect until enough state governments have signed onto it totali…