# Dems generic ballot lead almost gone **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 9, 2018, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874 "2018-05-09T19:26:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/1 "2018-05-09T19:26:09Z")
Down to 3 points from 16 points a few months back. [https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/politics/cnn-poll-generic-ballot-narrows/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/politics/cnn-poll-generic-ballot-narrows/index.html) If this keeps up the blue wave may be much smaller than predicted. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/2 "2018-05-09T19:37:17Z")
It’s not shrinking: > **[Latest Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/)** > > The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. That’s the only thing to look at. Individual polls don’t matter. Looking at all of them together might tell us something. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/3 "2018-05-09T19:38:04Z")
You mean [like this](http://www.contractormag.com/sites/contractormag.com/files/uploads/0512Mansfield.gif)? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/4 "2018-05-09T20:51:08Z")
We are going to attempt a miracle. Not because we believe in miracles, but because we have no choice. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/5 "2018-05-09T21:13:55Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > It’s not shrinking: I tell myself that every morning when I take a shower. You’ll understand when you get older. 😉 I never put much weight on these generic ballot polls. People don’t vote on generic ballots. Sure, it’s better to be up than down in such a poll, but being up is no guarantee of success. ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/6 "2018-05-09T21:19:00Z")
It’s not all that surprising - the economy’s been more or less humming along and there haven’t been any major disasters, and the scandals have all been scandals that we’ve known about. Trump was a boorish asshole before he got elected, so it’s not like continuing to act as a boorish asshole is going to cost him. And Congress hasn’t actually been attempting to do anything since they passed the tax bill, which helps their approval if they’re not going to be doing things that are generally popular. That said, this business with all the payola to Cohen may metastasize. Or maybe Mueller will issue his report and reveal a bunch of stuff. Or Trump could fire Mueller and cause some sort of firestorm. Or the North Korean summit could collapse, or we could end up with a shooting war in Iran, or both. Or Trump could shut down the government in September or blow up the farm bill, or terminate NAFTA and enter a trade war with the EU. Or things could even _continue to go mostly okay except the stupid tweeting_. Also, I’ll really start worrying if the Democratic margin in special elections starts slipping, but if anything it seems to be up from even 2017. Mostly it’s still to early to be panicked or confident regardless of your political beliefs. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/7 "2018-05-09T21:19:35Z")
@John Mace: I think the generic ballot is actually considered a decent predictor by the number guys. [Here’s The Best Tool We Have For Understanding How The Midterms Are Shaping Up](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-the-best-tool-we-have-for-understanding-how-the-midterms-are-shaping-up/) ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/8 "2018-05-09T21:31:09Z")
> [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](#): > > …and there haven’t been any major disasters, … As long as you’re a straight, white, rich male with no friends that fall outside those categories. For everybody else, it’s been nothing but disasters. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/9 "2018-05-09T21:37:26Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I tell myself that every morning when I take a shower. You’ll understand when you get older… Lord Whappingham, Earl of Hamster, stepped corpulently out of the shower into the robe his valet held open. “M’lord, you really should diet.” “Dye it? Good God, man, what color is it _now_!” ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/10 "2018-05-09T21:43:35Z")
> [@TimeWinder](#): > > As long as you’re a straight, white, rich male with no friends that fall outside those categories. For everybody else, it’s been nothing but disasters. What disasters have befallen you? ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/11 "2018-05-09T22:14:23Z")
straight white male here who is middle class. No disasters so far. But I strongly dislike Trump. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2018, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/12 "2018-05-09T23:07:53Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > @John Mace: > I think the generic ballot is actually considered a decent predictor by the number guys. > [Here’s The Best Tool We Have For Understanding How The Midterms Are Shaping Up](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-the-best-tool-we-have-for-understanding-how-the-midterms-are-shaping-up/) Yeah, well that’s just data. You’ll need more than that to get me to change my mind! ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/13 "2018-05-10T14:18:42Z")
Even with the spread slipping, there’s still a pretty big enthusiasm gap. This translates into increased voter turnout but it also helps with candidate recruitment (and retention!) and fundraising. The one thing that helps the Republicans is that Trump has been so Trumpy to this point that the voters may have gotten slightly inured to him. If people see the major things moving along OK despite his personal Trumpiness, they will gradually tend to discount it. But the Democrats are still favorites, at this point. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/14 "2018-05-10T14:26:02Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > Even with the spread slipping, there’s still a pretty big enthusiasm gap. This translates into increased voter turnout but it also helps with candidate recruitment (and retention!) and fundraising. > > The one thing that helps the Republicans is that Trump has been so Trumpy to this point that the voters may have gotten slightly inured to him. If people see the major things moving along OK despite his personal Trumpiness, they will gradually tend to discount it. > > But the Democrats are still favorites, at this point. The spread isn’t slipping, though. Once again: [Generic ballot Polls | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo) ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/15 "2018-05-10T14:45:26Z")
That’s a good point. Though a lot depends on what you’re comparing to. That makes reporting on polls very misleading, sometimes. Because suppose some media entity runs a poll and measuring against their most recent prior poll 2 months ago show some move, they make their headline and story about this supposed move. Meanwhile numerous other pollsters have been polling in the interim, and have already captured movements which are reflected in the conventional wisdom. People reading the new story can be misled into thinking that it’s move as compared to what’s out there, while in reality it’s only a move as compared to what this particular media entity last measured, quite some time ago. This is besides for any particular poll being subject to more volatility. In this case, there’s some buzz because of the latest [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/politics/cnn-poll-generic-ballot-narrows/index.html) poll showing a 3% gap, which is a pretty big gap down from their prior polling. But you’re right that if you look at the aggregate of recent polling there’s not nearly that big of a move. I think it’s correct to say that the polls are narrowing, even looking at 538, but not nearly as dramatically as would be suggested by the CNN story. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/16 "2018-05-10T14:51:52Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I think it’s correct to say that the polls are narrowing, even looking at 538, but not nearly as dramatically as would be suggested by the CNN story. I don’t think this is correct – there’s been volatility, but by my reading of the graph the gap has been ~ 5-7% the majority of the time over the last year, with quite short periods outside that range. If a year ago the gap was about 5%, and now the gap is about 6%, and it’s been lower and higher than that at various times throughout the year, it doesn’t make sense to me to say that the gap has narrowed. Rather, it’s been mostly steady, with just a little bit of volatility. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/17 "2018-05-10T15:16:15Z")
OK. But it depends what time span you’re comparing against. If you look at last December, it was about 12%-13% at that time, as recently as March it seemed to be about 8%-9%. You can move your cursor across that graph and you’ll see the actual numbers behind the lines. ISTM that over the last year or so, the current gap is close to the low end of the range. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/18 "2018-05-10T15:58:36Z")
Looking at [RCP’s generic ballot average](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html) and just picking the first day of every month this year: 1/1/2018 = D+12.5% 2/1/2018 = D+ 7.0% 3/1/2018 = D+ 9.3% 4/1/2018 = D+ 7.2% 5/1/2018 = D+ 6.5% I think it’s pretty clear that Republicans have improved their standing significantly from the end of last year, but the slump at the end of last year was definitely a low point for Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Delicious](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/dbc845/32.png) [@Delicious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Delicious)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/19 "2018-05-10T16:06:25Z")
Does anyone have a graph plotting this against the frequency of progressive sneering? It may be informative ---
**Author:** ![LAZombie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/b38774/32.png) [@LAZombie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LAZombie)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/20 "2018-05-10T16:25:59Z")
> [@Delicious](#): > > Does anyone have a graph plotting this against the frequency of progressive sneering? It may be informative Progressive sneering is a constant factor not a variable. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874.md?page=2)