# Dems generic ballot lead almost gone **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 9, 2018, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874 "2018-05-09T19:26:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/21 "2018-05-10T16:59:29Z")
> [@LAZombie](#): > > Progressive sneering is a constant factor not a variable. Heh…pot, meet kettle. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/22 "2018-05-10T17:14:14Z")
> [@Delicious](#): > > Does anyone have a graph plotting this against the frequency of progressive sneering? It may be informative I don’t understand this argument. The GOP has declared open war on non-whites, immigrants, feminists, liberals, urban dwellers, etc. but they claim that liberals showing contempt will shift the electorate to the right. I am confused. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/23 "2018-05-10T17:27:27Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > … The GOP has declared open war on non-whites, immigrants, feminists, liberals, urban dwellers, etc. … Cite? Somehow I missed that paragraph in the party platform. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/24 "2018-05-10T17:54:48Z")
Maybe it was right there next to the plank about supporting Ukraine against Russia. Did anyone look in Manafort’s pocket? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/25 "2018-05-10T17:58:00Z")
I personally think that [HuffPost Pollster](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2018-national-house-race) is overly smoothing things, but according to them the gap is pretty steady and may even be widening a bit. That’s not really the point of this post. The point is that Huffpost makes it easy to download the aggregated polling data as a tab separated values file that one can then easily open in Excel or what have you and analyze to one’s heart’s content. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/api/v2/questions/18-US-House/poll-responses-clean.tsv](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/api/v2/questions/18-US-House/poll-responses-clean.tsv) As an added bonus here’s a Python script that ingests the data into a pandas dataframe and the plots the rolling average of the dem advantage over time… ```auto import pandas as pd import datetime url = 'http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/api/v2/questions/18-US-House/poll-responses-clean.tsv' df_raw = pd.read_csv(filepath_or_buffer = url, sep = ' ', parse_dates = ['start_date', 'end_date']) # Filter out undesirable subpopulations. In this case they contain dashes '-' df = df_raw[df_raw['sample_subpopulation'].apply(lambda x: '-' not in x)] # Drop columns we don't need df = df.loc[:,['Democrat', 'Republican', 'start_date', 'end_date']] # Add net job approval column df['Net'] = df['Democrat'] - df['Republican'] # Add average date column df['avg_date'] = df['start_date'] + (df['end_date'] - df['start_date']) / 2 # Restrict to only columns of interest df = df.loc[:,['avg_date', 'Net']] # Helper function. Compute average of 'Net' column for rows within delta days (+-) of thedate def rollingavg(thedate, thedf): days = 7 delta = datetime.timedelta(days=days) temp = thedf[(thedf['avg_date'] >= thedate - delta) & (thedf['avg_date'] <= thedate + delta)] return temp['Net'].mean() # Create final dataframe min_date = df_raw['start_date'].min() max_date = df_raw['end_date'].max() df_final = pd.DataFrame(pd.date_range(min_date, max_date), columns = ['Date']) df_final['Advantage'] = df_final['Date'].apply(lambda x: rollingavg(x, df)) df_final = df_final.set_index('Date') # Show plot. df_final['Advantage'].plot() print(df_final['Advantage'].describe()) ``` Enjoy! ETA: You may need use the old board skin for this post to be legible. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/26 "2018-05-10T18:14:26Z")
Sigh, we need to make a law that says it is illegal to present a trend graph that doesn’t include error bars, punisable by having your arms chained to the opposite walls of a cell of about 6 feet in length (+/- 5 feet). The headline reads that the generic ballot graph dropped from 6 points to 3 point. Oh my god! However, hidden at the bottom of the article is the note that the results have a sampling error of 3.8%. Given that the earlier poll also probably had this level of sampling error, the difference is probably about what one would expect purely by chance. But then this wouldn’t make a great headline. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/27 "2018-05-10T18:20:58Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Cite? Somehow I missed that paragraph in the party platform. Listen to fox news or talk radio for a few days. I’m not sure how to get a cite that the modern right is hostile to these groups. Do you want studies showing republicans and trump voters are motivated by hostility towards those groups? > **[Polls show many — even most — Trump supporters really are deeply hostile to...](https://www.vox.com/2016/9/12/12882796/trump-supporters-racist-deplorables)** > > Hillary Clinton said, “You could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the ‘basket of deplorables.’” Is she right? > **[The past year of research has made it very clear: Trump won because of racial...](https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/12/15/16781222/trump-racism-economic-anxiety-study)** > > Another study produces the same findings we’ve seen over and over again. [https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/13/trump-white-voters-immigration-muslims-239446](https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/13/trump-white-voters-immigration-muslims-239446) > **[The Dark Connection Between Hostile Sexism and Politics](https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/experimentations/201801/the-dark-connection-between-hostile-sexism-and-politics)** > > Research shows that hostile sexism won the day in the 2016 election. Will we continue to permit our society to be governed by bias, leading to avoidable suffering and inequality? [https://jspp.psychopen.eu/article/view/750/html](https://jspp.psychopen.eu/article/view/750/html) ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/28 "2018-05-10T18:32:04Z")
I still believe dems are going to take congress. If they don’t… oooof. I wouldn’t want to be at the DNC that day. I think calling it a “blue wave” might be a little bit of hubris. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/29 "2018-05-10T18:34:33Z")
Conservatives have always been at the forefront of social change. Pushing back,sure, but they _were_ there! When conservatives go from “No, never, not ever!” to “Well, OK, but _slowly_\*, don’t rush things” is usually the first sign that they are about to claim credit for it. - I remember Dick Gregory from the early 60’s. I was not nearly so advanced in my thinking, but his line…“Get your foot off my grandmother’s neck! Now, Goddammit, not one toe at a time!”…hit me like a bolt of lightning. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/30 "2018-05-10T19:08:08Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > I still believe dems are going to take congress. The House, probably. The Senate? Not unless Dems hold \*every single one \*of the blue seats they’re defending (including blue seats in Missouri, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana and Indiana) \*and \*also take two red seats. Blues defending 25 seats, Reds defending only 10. In fact, the Republicans may be more likely to gain seats in the Senate this year than the Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/31 "2018-05-10T19:08:24Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Listen to fox news or talk radio for a few days. I’m not sure how to get a cite that the modern right is hostile to these groups. > > Do you want studies showing republicans and trump voters are motivated by hostility towards those groups? > > [Polls show many — even most — Trump supporters really are deeply hostile to Muslims and nonwhites | Vox](https://www.vox.com/2016/9/12/12882796/trump-supporters-racist-deplorables) > > [The past year of research has made it very clear: Trump won because of racial resentment | Vox](https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/12/15/16781222/trump-racism-economic-anxiety-study) > > [https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/13/trump-white-voters-immigration-muslims-239446](https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/13/trump-white-voters-immigration-muslims-239446) > > [The Dark Connection Between Hostile Sexism and Politics | Psychology Today](https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/experimentations/201801/the-dark-connection-between-hostile-sexism-and-politics) > > [https://jspp.psychopen.eu/article/view/750/html](https://jspp.psychopen.eu/article/view/750/html) I’m confident that a fair number of Dopers would take severe issue with a claim like “The Dems have declared open war on whites, natural-born citizens, men, conservatives, rural dwellers, etc.”. I’m certain that if I offered as a cite “just read the SDMB for a few days” it wouldn’t be considered valid, and even if I could show specific examples of Democrat hostility towards some of those various groups, most would not be persuaded that that was synonymous with “declared open war”, so I’m guessing you can imagine how skeptically people on the right view your “declared open war” claim. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2018, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/32 "2018-05-10T19:16:04Z")
I posted numerous articles and studies showing resentment and hostility to non-whites, non-christians and feminists is a major motivator of Trumpism. What is the issue? If you want more studies or articles based on studies, let me know. There are lots out there. If you can find studies that liberals vote based on open hostility towards rural whites, feel free to post them. ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2018, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/33 "2018-05-11T01:18:53Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I’m confident that a fair number of Dopers would take severe issue with a claim like “The Dems have declared open war on whites, natural-born citizens, men, conservatives, rural dwellers, etc.”. I’m certain that if I offered as a cite “just read the SDMB for a few days” it wouldn’t be considered valid, and even if I could show specific examples of Democrat hostility towards some of those various groups, most would not be persuaded that that was synonymous with “declared open war”, so I’m guessing you can imagine how skeptically people on the right view your “declared open war” claim. Right now, Pence is praising Arpaio, practically fawning over him. If you need any further indication that it’s open war on the brown people, well…oh, you could look for the open war on the brown people. Like the President of the United States _mobilizing the military_ to “protect” the southern border. JUST the southern border. From people who aren’t, actually, attacking us in any way. And for these non-violent offenders who are trying to provide better lives for their family, there will be no more citing them and releasing. Instead, we’ll take them to the concentration camps, sorry, “private prisons” for indefinite durations until we happen to get around to prosecuting them. But only the brown ones. Folks who come in from the north are ignored, from Norway–encouraged. But it’s OK – remember, if they just immigrated legally, it wouldn’t be a problem. So the GOP has spent decades insuring there are no legal immigration paths for nearly any Mexican. Which doesn’t stop them from using the “they should just come here legally” line at every opportunity. Seriously, it’s Trump Administration. It’s not necessary to pretend not to be racist any more. It’s literally spewed from the top office in the land. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Smashy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/2bfe46/32.png) [@Mr\_Smashy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Smashy)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2018, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/34 "2018-05-11T13:33:34Z")
> [@TimeWinder](#): > > Like the President of the United States _mobilizing the military_ to “protect” the southern border. JUST the southern border. From people who aren’t, actually, attacking us in any way. > > … > > But it’s OK – remember, if they just immigrated legally, it wouldn’t be a problem. So the GOP has spent decades insuring there are no legal immigration paths for nearly any Mexican. Which doesn’t stop them from using the “they should just come here legally” line at every opportunity. First of all, the Nat’l Guard was in response to the ‘caravan’ of people coming up from (mostly) Central America, to flee civil war et al. One notes they could have stopped in Mexico if they were truly refugees for that purpose. No similar caravans from Canada, to my knowledge. Secondly, in 2016 (last year I could find numbers for) there were 150k legal Mexican migrations into US, so saying the GOP has ‘spent decades ensuring there are _no_ legal immigration paths’ seems a little disingenuous. > **[Frequently Requested Statistics on Immigrants and Immigration in the United...](https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested-statistics-immigrants-and-immigration-united-states)** > > Immigration touches on many facets of life in the United States. Get the facts with this useful resource, which compiles in one place answers to some of the most often-asked questions about immigration and immigrants in the United States now and... ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2018, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/35 "2018-05-11T13:59:26Z")
The generic ballot can’t predict specific results but it’s probably a good indicator of the electorate’s mood. The thing to remember about mid-term elections is that they tend to reflect activism. Whichever side feels more motivated to vote has the advantage. I think for that reason, the Democrats will continue to have the edge, but they need to be careful. If they start ramping up talk of impeachment, they could motivate the right and even moderate right supporters to head to the polls when they otherwise might not. Irrespective of the generic ballot, the Republicans still have a mass exodus problem and we’re still in a very anti-incumbent environment. That bodes well for Democrats, particularly in the House. The Senate is a different story because it’s the Democrats who are mostly the incumbents. So given the circumstances, if i had to bet today, I’d say that the Dems regain the House but lose the Senate. If they happen to have a particularly good night they could possibly destroy Republicans in the House and possibly score a tie or even pick up a one-seat majority in the Senate (unlikely, but possible). If they have a particularly bad night, they just barely take the House and even lose more seats in the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2018, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/36 "2018-05-11T16:58:31Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > I personally think that [HuffPost Pollster](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2018-national-house-race) is overly smoothing things, but according to them the gap is pretty steady and may even be widening a bit. > > That’s not really the point of this post. The point is that Huffpost makes it easy to download the aggregated polling data … For those of us so technically inept as to not manage your patch HuffPo does also allow for a “less smoothing” option. And the point remains that the overall spread of that specific metric has been pretty stable, with short-lived peaks and valleys, whether one uses HuffPo’s or 538’s aggregations. Range on 538’s aggregator was _briefly_ as high as D+13 (end of December) but has mostly been traveling in the 6 to 8 range in both aggregators. Today 538 is D+6.2 and HuffPo standard moderate smoothing D+7. The meaningful shift will be when the pollsters switch to likely voter screens, which I have been told by the informed here should be fairly soon. The bigger question is whether the generic ballot (call it D+7ish) or the special election results (D+17ish swing on average) are more predictive. Or should we just average them to D+12? ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2018, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/37 "2018-05-11T17:03:12Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The bigger question is whether the generic ballot (call it D+7ish) or the special election results (D+17ish swing on average) are more predictive. What’s the special election results D+17 swing comparing to? Votes for that same seat? Votes for Trump? Something else? Because if it’s that same seat in the most recent election, then it’s possible that some of the swing as being due to the loss of incumbency. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2018, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/38 "2018-05-11T17:36:35Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > What’s the special election results D+17 swing comparing to? Votes for that same seat? Votes for Trump? Something else? It’s compared to Trump margin in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2018, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/39 "2018-05-11T17:39:31Z")
538 actually uses both the 2016 and 2012 years to set the partisan lean. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2018, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/40 "2018-05-11T17:50:38Z")
Its less the Dems or the Pubbies but the Apathy Party, that vast number of people who, for whatever reason, just don’t engage. And don’t vote. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874.md?page=3)