# Dems generic ballot lead almost gone **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 9, 2018, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874 "2018-05-09T19:26:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2018, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/41 "2018-05-11T18:31:03Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > … So given the circumstances, if i had to bet today, I’d say that the Dems regain the House but lose the Senate. If they happen to have a particularly good night they could possibly destroy Republicans in the House and possibly score a tie or even pick up a one-seat majority in the Senate (unlikely, but possible). If they have a particularly bad night, they just barely take the House and even lose more seats in the Senate. You think it’s “unlikely, but possible” for the Dems to take the Senate. Are you open to the possibility (even if you judge it unlikely) that they fail to take the House? Or do you think that’s in the realm of the impossible? I only ask because your last sentence makes it sound like you believe even if the Dems have a particularly bad night, they’ll still take over the House. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2018, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/42 "2018-05-11T20:44:04Z")
There’s a particularly bad night, and then there’s a really horrible night. It is more likely than not that the Democrats will take the House, but nothing is guaranteed. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2018, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/43 "2018-05-11T22:18:21Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Cite? Somehow I missed that paragraph in the party platform. This is a very good joke. Bravo. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2018, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/44 "2018-05-12T04:16:26Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > You think it’s “unlikely, but possible” for the Dems to take the Senate. Are you open to the possibility (even if you judge it unlikely) that they fail to take the House? Or do you think that’s in the realm of the impossible? I only ask because your last sentence makes it sound like you believe even if the Dems have a particularly bad night, they’ll still take over the House. No, I can’t discount the possibility of the Republicans keeping the House. For one thing, they control that chamber by a wide margin, so the reality is that the Dems need a strong performance. I guess maybe a better way of putting it is that if the Dems perform well but not as well as expected, then they’ll just barely take the House. There’s still a chance Republicans reverse the tide. In fact Tuesday was a good night for the GOP - one of their best in a while. Even though those were only primaries, they put forward some strong general election candidates who will be difficult to defeat. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2018, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/45 "2018-05-20T14:06:34Z")
What’s happening in the generic tracker [currently](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo) is where I start to get more concerned. The level of GOP support is not moving up but as the races are more the _specific_ D candidate, D support is dropping. We will be starting to see the impact of switching to LV screens soon too. The tracker is now under 5 and while going down to 6 (and then returning to the mean) is something it had done many times, under 5 is not. November is an uncomfortably long time away. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Tildrum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e95f7d/32.png) [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2018, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/46 "2018-05-23T19:02:11Z")
Reuters’ [latest](http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/388832-reuters-poll-shows-republicans-leading-generic-ballot-for-first-time) has the Republicans in the lead. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2018, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/47 "2018-05-23T23:19:30Z")
I guess that means that 38.1% of registered voters are exactly as stupid and credulous as I thought they were. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2018, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/48 "2018-05-23T23:30:12Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > I guess that means that 38.1% of registered voters are exactly as stupid and credulous as I thought they were. Probably higher since I know for a fact there’s a decent pile of stupid and credulous people who vote Dem. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2018, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/49 "2018-05-24T00:48:20Z")
Could the Republicans benefit from something similar to the Bradley effect? > **[Bradley effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect)** > > The Bradley effect (less commonly the Wilder effect) is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. The theory proposes that some white voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. It was named after Los Angeles The Bradley ... ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2018, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/50 "2018-05-24T01:12:27Z")
> [@E-DUB](#): > > Could the Republicans benefit from something similar to the Bradley effect? > > [Bradley effect - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect) First off, no one benefits from the supposed Bradley effect. It describes a possible reason polls are off. Second, it doesn’t explain the current narrowing of poll numbers. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2018, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/51 "2018-05-24T01:35:09Z")
People are sick of hearing about it so they blame us for telling them. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2018, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/52 "2018-05-24T06:00:32Z")
[David Rothschild’s Predictwise shows the present probability of a Democratic House as 59%](https://predictwise.com/politics/2018-congress-house) compared with the 70% high-water mark on April 11. The November 2016 tragedy can be blamed on people thinking Trump was a joke with no chance. If the GOP retains control after this November I think we can finally admit that the average American voter is getting the government he deserves. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2018, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/53 "2018-05-24T15:43:19Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Probably higher since I know for a fact there’s a decent pile of stupid and credulous people who vote Dem. Sure, but nowhere near the numbers found in the Party of Stupid. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2018, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/54 "2018-05-24T16:43:16Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Sure, but nowhere near the numbers found in the Party of Stupid. Yeah, what’s it feel like to lose to the Party of Stupid? Congress? Governors? President? Supreme Court? Dominated by the Party of Stupid. What does that make the dimwitocrats? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2018, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/55 "2018-05-24T16:47:00Z")
The thinking of many D’s is, “Our side is right, the other side is wrong, and if voters vote for the other side, then they must be blind to our side’s virtues and/or the other side’s flaws.” ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2018, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/56 "2018-05-24T17:07:16Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The thinking of many D’s is, “Our side is right, the other side is wrong, and if voters vote for the other side, then they must be blind to our side’s virtues and/or the other side’s flaws.” This statement could apply to “many” adherents of literally any philosophy, religion, and political party that humans have ever held. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2018, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/57 "2018-05-24T20:33:23Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Yeah, what’s it feel like to lose to the Party of Stupid? Congress? Governors? President? Supreme Court? Dominated by the Party of Stupid. What does that make the dimwitocrats? BTW, **octopus** , have you presented your views on “Trump University”? It’s hard to know how to engage you without a sense of your understanding of right and wrong. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2018, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/58 "2018-05-24T20:41:37Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > BTW, **octopus** , have you presented your views on “Trump University”? It’s hard to know how to engage you without a sense of your understanding of right and wrong. From my understanding Trump U seems to have been a scam. Our regulatory agencies and courts need more teeth because fraudulent activity seems to be insufficient yet deterred. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2018, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/59 "2018-05-24T23:07:44Z")
And was that scam endorsed by the present head of state? ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2018, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/60 "2018-05-25T00:06:21Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > And was that scam endorsed by the present head of state? I think most people know Trump is shady. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874.md?page=4)