# Dems generic ballot lead almost gone **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 9, 2018, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874 "2018-05-09T19:26:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2018, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/121 "2018-06-08T12:13:11Z")
I’m in agreement with Nate Silver in the belief that there’s just too much uncertainty right now. But, if you go with history, it seems highly likely that the Democrats are going to pick up seats in the House. “How many” is the question, but we can probably assume that the Democrats have the wind at their backs. If I were a GOP pollster, I’d be concerned about the lack of ‘Oomph’ over tax reform, and I’ve sometimes wondered whether the GOP insiders truly believed it would be a winner in the court of public opinion. I’ve suspected that tax reform was done more to please their political campaign underwriters. We’re also getting past the honeymoon phase of the Trump administration, and past the point at which he can take credit for things that were quietly accomplished before he arrived in Washington. His decisions, and his indecision, are going to have more and more consequences. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2018, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/122 "2018-06-08T15:32:36Z")
This won’t help the Republicans: [Trump Administration to join 20 states in a lawsuit to get rid of the current ACA-required pre-existing condition coverage mandate, and the mandate limiting insurance costs for seniors.](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/trumps-new-war-on-pre-existing-condition-protections) Health care and the fight for ACA and its most popular provisions is now _back_ as a campaign issue! ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2018, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/123 "2018-06-08T17:16:28Z")
In the cold blue light of _realpolitik_, wherein humanity exists only as units of political power, this is gleeful and chucklesome. Il Douche has managed to shoot himself in the foot while simultaneously stepping on his own dick. But people will suffer, they already are, if only from the worry and anxiety over what may happen, and likely will. Then they will suffer more, and some will die. Needlessly. In service to an outdated form of conservatism and its ideological obsession with “socialized medicine”. Father, forgive them if you can, but they know _Goddamn!_ well what they do. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2018, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/124 "2018-06-09T00:55:41Z")
Dopers seem pleased with very recent polls. However … > [@septimus](#): > > [David Rothschild’s Predictwise shows the present probability of a Democratic House as 59%](https://predictwise.com/politics/2018-congress-house) compared with the 70% high-water mark on April 11. > [@septimus](#): > > Predictwise shows 22% as the chance for D+I to get 51 Senate seats. This seems wildly optimistic to me. These Predictwise numbers have dwindled from 59% / 22% to 57% / 17%. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2018, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/125 "2018-06-09T02:17:19Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > This won’t help the Republicans: > > [Trump Administration to join 20 states in a lawsuit to get rid of the current ACA-required pre-existing condition coverage mandate, and the mandate limiting insurance costs for seniors.](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/trumps-new-war-on-pre-existing-condition-protections) > > Health care and the fight for ACA and its most popular provisions is now _back_ as a campaign issue! The stupidity of this move is incredible. They are making the private sector part of the law fail and keeping the single payer aspect. Are they trying to make single payer a reality for Democrats? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2018, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/126 "2018-06-09T03:12:48Z")
It is even more stupid when one considers that one big talking point from the right, that the ACA was going to prevent economic growth, is non operative. But there is one issue that Trump and the Republicans forget, that several small business and start-ups that are part of the current growth are there thanks to the ACA. > **[Small-business owners and self-employed more likely to buy Obamacare plans](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/12/small-business-owners-self-employed-bought-many-obamacare-plans.html)** > > A total of 1.4 million Obamacare customers were small-biz owners, self-employed, or both, according to a new report. What will happen then is not only the loss of many small businesses and start-ups, but the return of more job lock. There is really less freedom when your health care does depend on the job you have and that gets worse when there are pre-existing conditions. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2018, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/127 "2018-06-09T13:55:53Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Dopers seem pleased with very recent polls. However … > These Predictwise numbers have dwindled from 59% / 22% to 57% / 17%. ☹ The Senate is now, and has been, a long shot; the Dems would do well not to actually lose ground in the Senate. The real focus should be on winning the House. For one thing, the House has the power of the purse. But it would thwart the partisan nuttery of David Nunes and people like the soon-to-retire Trey Gowdy. Winning the House and not winning the Senate would also hopefully make the Democrats see the futility in waging a holy war for Trump’s impeachment, which could backfire in 2020. A narrow House victory is all that the country really needs for right now. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2018, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/128 "2018-06-09T14:01:17Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > This won’t help the Republicans: > > [Trump Administration to join 20 states in a lawsuit to get rid of the current ACA-required pre-existing condition coverage mandate, and the mandate limiting insurance costs for seniors.](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/trumps-new-war-on-pre-existing-condition-protections) > > Health care and the fight for ACA and its most popular provisions is now _back_ as a campaign issue! Yeah–I was gobsmacked when I saw this, although I shouldn’t’ve been. The single best way to make ACA popular will be to repeal it–and if that law is martyred in the service of partisanship, what a powerful fucking martyr it’s gonna be. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2018, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/129 "2018-06-09T16:58:22Z")
Trying to find the other perspective here … and here’s a quote from [a Politico article](https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/08/trumps-obamacare-court-case-health-care-republicans-611072)about this. > [@](#): > > “It’s a campaign promise. You’ve got to deliver on it in whatever way you can,” said Jason Pye, vice president of legislative affairs for FreedomWorks. “They’re going to have an Obamacare debate whether they like it or not, because the new premiums are going to come out in September and October.” > > He added that while tax cuts and the economy are winning issues for Republicans, they’re not nearly enough to fire up conservative voters disillusioned by the party’s unwillingness to follow through on their pledge to eliminate Obamacare “root and branch.” Remember that many voters are low information voters. September/October new premiums are released with (to no small degree because of the uncertainty this move introduces) sky high increases. The fact that the increases being so sky high is due to GOP undermining will be lost on many. In districts that the base needs to be revved the sales pitch will be that these rates are the result of Obamacare and they are still fighting to get rid of it. Nah. I’m not buying it myself. But the impact at midterm time is going to mostly be those rate increases. The actual removal of the pre-existing conditions and already unenforcible individual mandate clauses will be kicked down the road with appeals until well after November. At that point less severely conservative GOP critters can afford to piss off one or the other side (depending on their district) and vote to fix it with changes to law or to support the destruction of law’s functionality … which longer term may be the path to single payor. As to Predictwise … hard for me to understand the betting market mentality. Not a major move but again as the tracker moves one way the betting market moves the other. It seems to me that the gambling crowdsource pretty much discounts the polls at this point and is responding to something else that is either there or not there in the news cycles that does not drive the polls the same way ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2018, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/130 "2018-06-09T17:11:10Z")
Re: the Politico article, I just wonder about the identity of the real constituency that Republicans are trying to impress by bringing Obamacare back into the discussion. The Republicans tried to kill Obamacare, and it seems to me that they’ve certainly wounded it by effectively repealing enforcement of the insurance mandate. I get that there are low information voters, but they’ve gotten much of what they’ve wanted over the past 18 months politically. It seems that the wiser strategy for Republicans would be to take their gradually improving image, hope that Trump doesn’t fire Mueller, Rosenstein, and Sessions at the same, and see where things lead in November. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2018, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/131 "2018-06-09T23:17:04Z")
The status quo, with preexisting conditions covered but no mandate, is popular among the people but a death sentence for insurance companies. The Republicans are just looking out for the interests of their real constituents, here. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2018, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/132 "2018-06-10T01:19:48Z")
[FWIW.](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/08/health/obamacare-pre-existing-conditions-mandate.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fpolitics&action=click&contentCollection=politics®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=8&pgtype=sectionfront) > [@](#): > > The main trade association for health insurers came out strongly against the administration’s position. > > “Removing those provisions will result in renewed uncertainty in the individual market, create a patchwork of requirements in the states, cause rates to go even higher for older Americans and sicker patients, and make it challenging to introduce products and rates for 2019,” said Matt Eyles, the president and chief executive of America’s Health Insurance Plans, a trade group for insurers. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2018, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/133 "2018-06-24T05:03:05Z")
Maybe it’s slightly off-topic here, but it seems interesting that, for this point in his term [Donald Trump’s popularity among Republicans (almost 90%!) is higher than that of any President since Hoover](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/23/us/politics/republican-voters-trump.html), except for GWB who was immersed in war euphoria in the summer of his 2nd year. > [@](#): > > Gina Anders … gets why people are upset [with Trump]. But Ms. Anders, 46, a Republican from suburban Loudoun County, Va., with a law degree, a business career, and not a stitch of “Make America Great Again” gear in her wardrobe, is moved to defend him anyway. > “All nuance and all complexity — and these are complex issues — are completely lost,” she said, describing “overblown” reactions from the president’s critics, some of whom equated the Trump administration’s policy of separating migrant children and parents to history’s greatest atrocities. > “It makes me angry at them, which causes me to want to defend him to them more,” Ms. Anders said. > > … > “He’s not a perfect guy; he does some stupid stuff,” said Tony Schrantz, 50, of Lino Lakes, Minn., the owner of a water systems leak detection business. “But when they’re hounding him all the time it just gets old. Give the guy a little.” > … Many of these voters say their lives and the country are improving under his presidency, and the endless stream of tough cable news coverage and bad headlines about Mr. Trump only galvanizes them further — even though some displayed discomfort on their faces when asked about the child separation policy, and expressed misgivings about the president’s character. > …“It bothers me that he doesn’t tell the truth, but I guess I kind of expect that, and I expect that from the media, too — not to always tell the truth or to slant it one way,” said Julie Knight, 63, a retired personal injury case manager from Algona, Wash. > > The increasingly tribalized politics on the left and right have helped insulate Mr. Trump from the paroxysms that have jolted his party and eroded longstanding expectations of restraint, humility and honesty in American presidents. > “It’s just incredible what the nation is trying to do to disrupt this president and his agenda,” said Jeff Butts, 58, an unemployed sales manager from Leesburg. “We don’t get to hear about that. We only get to hear about the crying babies on the border.” > > Sometimes they seized on made-up or erroneous story lines that were mostly absent from the mainstream media. > “Those cages and those families — that was actually filmed during the Obama administration, not the Trump administration,” said Clayton Smith, 57, a commercial lending underwriter from Cary, Ill., a Chicago suburb. [One such photo _was_ from Obama’s term, and soon un-posted.] ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2018, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/134 "2018-06-24T12:33:05Z")
> [@](#): > > “It’s just incredible what the nation is trying to do to disrupt this president and his agenda,” said Jeff Butts, 58, an unemployed sales manager from Leesburg. “We don’t get to hear about that. We only get to hear about the crying babies on the border.” The crying babies on the border _are_ Trump’s agenda. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2018, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/135 "2018-06-24T16:53:25Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Maybe it’s slightly off-topic here, but it seems interesting that, for this point in his term [Donald Trump’s popularity among Republicans (almost 90%!) is higher than that of any President since Hoover](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/23/us/politics/republican-voters-trump.html), except for GWB who was immersed in war euphoria in the summer of his 2nd year. I’ve been wondering if that factors in the issue that the percentage of people who identify as Republican has fallen. Therefore, you are polling the people remaining in the party, and losing the people who were disgusted enough with Trump to change affiliation. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2018, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/136 "2018-06-24T17:51:13Z")
[PDF from Dem strategist regarding polling on ACA topics.](https://t.co/S5l7gwgJdl?amp=1) > [@](#): > > By 66% to 34%, voters disapprove of the Trump Justice Department’s actions in supporting this lawsuit. Nearly half (47%) of all voters strongly disapprove, while only 11% strongly approve. > > Overwhelming majorities of both Democrats (87%) and independents (72%) disapprove of the Trump administration’s actions, while Republicans are much more divided in their views (57% approve, 43% disapprove). > > The high degree of disapproval among non-college-educated white women voters (66% disapprove, 47% strongly disapprove) is notable because it underlines the degree to which the lawsuit and the issue of preexisting conditions puts this part of the Trump base into play for 2018. > > These reactions to the lawsuit come against a backdrop of Republicans already being quite vulnerable on the question of protecting people with preexisting medical conditions. When asked earlier in the survey which party is more likely to “make sure people with preexisting medical conditions can get affordable insurance coverage,” voters choose Democrats over Republicans by a wide 63% to 37%. This 26-point margin is especially noteworthy given that Democrats have only a three-point advantage in party identification overall in the survey sample. > > Nearly three-quarters (72%) of all voters say they would have major doubts about a Republican candidate who “voted to weaken protections for people with preexisting medical conditions, which would allow insurance companies to charge people with preexisting conditions much more to get coverage,” including 50% who have very major doubts. Even among those who are otherwise inclined to vote for a Republican for Congress, three in 10 would have very major doubts about a GOP candidate who supports weakening protections for people with preexisting conditions. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2018, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874/137 "2018-06-24T20:00:48Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > I’ve been wondering if that factors in the issue that the percentage of people who identify as Republican has fallen. Therefore, you are polling the people remaining in the party, and losing the people who were disgusted enough with Trump to change affiliation. That’s a very good point. [Pew does long term tracking.](http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/party-identification-trends-1992-2017/) Between 2016 and 2017 GOP party ID dropped 3 points, down to 26%, tied for as low as it has been. Independent ID went up 3 points, to 37%, as high as it’s ever been. Democratic ID stayed the same at 33%, just off its 2015 low of 32%. It’s consistent with a long term trend of more calling themselves “independent” but put another way _a bit more than 10% of those who had identified as GOP moved into the independent column_ over the year. Including leaners it does not look quite as bad for GOP ID- the drop for the GOP+lean was only 2 points, from 44 to 42%, with those 2 points moving the D+lean side from 48 to 50%. The highest they’ve ever seen the D+lean side has been 51%. Looking at the breakouts it seems that the biggest switch has been among college grads, going from the 15 point D/leaner advantage to a 22 point one. And there was some increase in R/leaner identification by White nonHispanic evangelical Protestants, from a R+56 to R+59. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/dems-generic-ballot-lead-almost-gone/813874.md?page=6)