…yeah, but that only matters if the people in power cared about what “pisses them off”, and we have seen time and time again that the Black and other minority votes are simply taken for granted.
“Can’t” is a pretty definitive word. And I don’t think that you are correct. MAGA can move forward. It could transform into something else, in fact, I think it already has. We’ve got “MAGA” here in NZ. It isn’t “Make America Great Again.” Its just a nasty, toxic, conspiracy laden movement that was fueled by dis-information campaigns that originated primarily from the States. I can’t tell you how disconcerting it is to have people here now arguing for their “first ammendment rights” and their “right to bear arms.”
MAGA, or whatever they are calling themselves now, isn’t going away. It will be a potent force in the event the Republicans win, and as Jan 6th showed the world they will be a potent force if the Republicans lose.
The very last thing anyone should be doing right now is underestimating them. The anger isn’t “maxxed out.” DeSantis could win the GOP nomination and he could go on to win the Presidency.
“I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.” – Ronald Reagan, 1984
On the other hand, Fox might not want to risk offending the diehard everTrumpers by outright endorsing some other candidate as the legitimate GOP nominee. We’ve seen that dynamic play out before when they panicked at losing eyeballs to OAN/Newsmax after honestly calling Arizona for Biden and started to backtrack toward teh crazee.
Ironically, the Dominion/Smartmatic lawsuits might end up saving Fox if the result is bearable damage to Fox but cripping damage to their smaller and more extreme competitors.
Forget about the base. It would all come down to what Trump himself does. Run as a third party candidate? A lukewarm endorsement of DeSantis? Or a strong endorsement including Trump rallies for DeSantis and such. I think a lukewarm endorsement would be the most likely outcome, and that might not be enough to put DeSantis over the finish line.
IMO the OP is on drugs. DeSantis will be the R nominee and the President in 2024.
R president first:
What gets the R vote out in 2024 is not passion over e.g. Trump vs. meh over DeSantis or whoever. What gets out the wacky Rs, the far right Rs, the regular Rs, and the slightly conservative centrists, is the constant propaganda drumbeat that the USA is DOOMED if the D’s are allowed to prevail. They are totally running on the platform that this election is the very last chance to SAVE AMERICA from the predations of anti-American traitorous wokeness & socialism. That shit sells across the whole spectrum of even vaguely-righties, much less the wackos. Those people will vote, and in vast numbers, for whoever has the magic (R) after their name.
Said another way, it’s a mistake to attribute the R’s 2020 turnout to Trump. It was due to Trump AND the enormously profitable R propaganda machine. Yes, Trump is weaker in 2024. But the machine is now stronger.
And, as noted by other posters just above, the widespread voter suppression still being wheeled into place in states that used to be purple and might still have that attitude in the public at large but will never again be permitted to have a corresponding vote count.
That’s why the Rs win.
Why DeSantis:
He is selling what the rank and file Rs want. And what they’re being told to want.
Low taxes, small government, low regulation for the few Establishment types left. Social control evangelical policies for the Xian fundamentalists and the simpler Bible-is-THE-way types. And he’s selling outright racism / sexism / anti-LGBTQ-ism to the racists / sexists / homophobes. All wrapped in the Flag, Apple Pie, and the wholesome appearance of smalltown boy does good and is still married to first wife with demographically ideal kids.
He might not be the most articulate or charismatic spokesman. But most of his audience don’t care about that. They’re either sophisticates who recognize the parts of the platform that matter and can look at how he’s implemented that in FL already. Or they’re rubes who’ll buy the hate.
About the only way DeSantis doesn’t get the nomination is if he unexpectedly implodes or one of the big RW propaganda celebrities like Hannity decides to run himself. Paid for by Murdoch of course.
…he’s also being pushed very hard by the mainstream press.
They are treating him as “just another typical conservative” instead of the extremist that he actually is. And its that normalization which makes him potentially a more dangerous candidate than Trump, and a viable option in the swing states.
This doesn’t mean he will win. It simply means…don’t count your chickens.
Per Atamasama, you (and others above) who assert these things need to explain why it hasn’t been working for three election cycles and why it will be different just two years from now.
I agree. But that has failed to win over America as a whole for three election cycles.
There are no sophisticates, and the rubes want Trump. That’s the problem for DeSantis.
He or someone else will win through attrition, but no one will come out of the convention with real enthusiasm to work with.
I don’t get the assumption that you think they won’t win the next cycle because of some arbitrary order. The Dems aren’t fated to win. Anything could happen between now and the election. Maybe Biden doesn’t run again. Maybe some major world event. Maybe the GOP get their a into g.
Because that’s just the way things work. If I could accurately predict every election I’d be a millionaire by now.
I agree. There was one thing the GOP had the last three election cycles that turned a lot of people off, and I think they may have caught-on after these last mid-terms what that one thing was. If they could just put their finger on it…
That wont stop GOP voters from making the same mistake another time, but it might, with other popular (in the party) people like DeSantis being groomed for the role.
Because of the insufficient sample size of Presidential elections, there isn’t much to be certain about. But twentieth and twenty-first century history says height matters. Three inches would be a lot to overcome. Certainly there is more evidence in favor of three inches meaning something than charisma. If DeSantis was really that short, Biden might be a favorite. Only thing is — web search is showing me a wide variety of alleged DeSantis heights. And he doesn’t look that short. Elevator shoes? Maybe, but don’t they all use them? High heels Haley is bragging about it.
I have no idea who the GOP will nominate. As for the general election, the economy will probably decide it. Political science evidence says moderates do a bit better, but candidate identity is overestimated as a factor.
Last year was not a presidential election. The R congressional candidates who were reality-challenged batshit crazy lost. That’s not DeSantis. The R candidates who won were far right, but not batshit crazy. That’s DeSantis.
Agree he’s getting the “sensible R” treatment by the MSM media. Which will be attractive to the Rs who listen to MSM, and will not be a negative to the Rs who listen to Fox because they’ll never know or care what MSM says unless Fox wants them to know that. It will also sell to at least some centrist / swing voters. And if the D’s go full-bore stupid and run somebody hardcore wacky-woke the MSM treatment of DeSantis will attract even the right wing of the D party.
A lot of lefty Dopers seem to have a problem recognizing just how far the Overton window has moved right. And is still moving right for much of the country as fear of war and economic depression and inflation and tax increases are being fanned. Viewed looking out that Overton window DeSantis looks like a centrist. Which will sell to the fearful middle.
No, it was a midterm which traditionally means big losses for the party of the POTUS. It was an exceptionally bad result for Republicans. It means their machine is broken, despite what you insist.
But the people who go for those candidates are the hordes that Trump has counted on for both of his elections. If they’re not available, what does Ron have to carry him to victory? The enthusiasm isn’t there.
I’m afraid there is something to this, even though I word it differently.
Trump is so extreme – maybe not in policies – but in his disrespect for democratic norms and common decency – that any other Republican will seem moderate by comparison. And DeSantis – because he doesn’t seem to have a voice that generates excitment – will be hard for the Democrats to successfully paint as an extremist.
Probably what should worry the Democrats the most is Charlie Crist – a former Republican governor! – losing to DeSantis by 19.4 percent. If a former Republican can’t successfully paint DeSantis as too extreme, what hopes does Joe Biden have? Some of this can be chalked up to Florida having become a solid GOP state, but DeSantis ran three points ahead of Marco Rubio.
It really shouldn’t be hard. From everything to “don’t say gay” to movig to ban “CRT” from schools to flying migrants to Martha’s vineyard, DeSantis is about as extreme as you can get. Its like George Santos: it was all out there, wide open, a cursory background check would have bought down the entire house of cards if they had played it. But they didn’t.
In fact its even worse with DeSantis. You don’t even need to do a cursory background check. Its all right there, out in the open. “LOOK!!! DeSantis is trying to eliminate all state funding toward programs that include diversity, equity and inclusion, which he deems “ideological”!!!"
They could be yelling this from the rooftops if they wanted too. They just won’t. Because some of them would think that “we don’t want to be negative.” Others will think it doesn’t really matter. And others quietly approve.
The above is for congressional general elections because the sample size is high enough for statistical significance. One can always claim that presidentials – where you can’t get a big enough sample – are different, and I won’t be able to disprove that. But I didn’t cherry-pick my last link. This is the way most of the American political science findings point.