Can you imagine how fun it must have been to work as a guano harvester on a wooden sailing ship?
Little_Nemo
Charter Member
Aug 10
I once figured out who the Presidents would have been if it had been a lifetime office. I assumed that lifespans remained unchanged and that whoever was the President at the time in real history would have been the one elected when the previous President died.
George Washington 1789-1799
John Adams 1799-1826
John Quincy Adams 1826-1848
James Polk 1848-1849
Zachary Taylor 1849-1850
Millard Fillmore 1850-1874
Ulysses Grant 1874-1885
Grover Cleveland 1885-1908
Theodore Roosevelt 1908-1919
Woodrow Wilson 1919-1924
Calvin Coolidge 1924-1933
Herbert Hoover 1933-1964
Lyndon Johnson 1964-1973
Richard Nixon 1973-1994
Bill Clinton 1994-Present
Interesting choices. The Whig and Republican parties existed as a reaction against the Andrew Jackson presidency, so I could see some problems with this lineage. And Herbert Hoover as our leader during WWII? Lyndon Johnson without a Kennedy presidency preceding it, or Grant with no Lincoln beforehand? This might need a little more thought.
While an interesting list, the second assumption is problematic.
I feel there’s an argument to be made for it. Yes, we might look back on somebody like Fillmore and see him as almost a non-entity. But the historical reality is that people in 1850 did apparently see something in him and elected him President.
The deeper argument is that history would have been significantly changed by these presidents (and by the absence of presidents we actually had). With Fillmore as President from 1850 to 1874, for example, we would not have had the same civil war as we did in real history. And without that war in that period, it’s hard to see Grant rising to the presidency.
But I wasn’t looking to go that deep and figure out what the consequences of these individuals being president would have been and then trying to predict which political figures would have risen to prominence during their administrations. (And that’s assuming figures from our history would have even existed in this alternate reality.)
That’s really the big issue to me. While the President doesn’t control everything, they do control a lot about policy.
I mean, just look at the last person on that list. With Clinton, we wouldn’t have had the debacle of the 2000 election, and there’s no Neocon takeover of the Executive Branch. We might have had Gulf War I, but would Clinton and his administration have elected to invade Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein because of 9/11? That was a neoconservative dream to rebuild the Middle East in our image, using preemptive war as a justification. Highly doubtful.
What about Afghanistan? Having tinkered with warlords in Mogadishu, Clinton would likely land been a bit reticent to march in to Afghanistan for a protracted war.
And then there’s the loss of Obama, followed by the lack of Trump and his damage. And that’s just recent history. Now consider those type of effects earlier, and it just becomes unrealistic after the first couple. What would America be like?
Like I said, an interesting list to see where ages made a difference, but not much use beyond that.
Vice-President. He was never elected President.
hoover for ww2…ummm yeah …
Agree w @Irishman that any counterfactual about anything quickly crashes against the rocks of the butterfly effect and chaos theory.
But …
Having asked the question, @Little_Nemo’s solution is about the only alternative to simply throwing up our hands. And it does provide something concrete to discuss.
So IMO it has merit as the least-bad answer to a intractable question.
Thank you. I figure if nothing else, my list gives us an idea of what the results of such a system might have looked like, even if the specific individuals would have been different.
In my personal opinion, it wouldn’t have come to that.
It would have been worse.
Hoover was a terrible president. (Which is somewhat surprising because he had a deservedly good reputation before becoming president.) He totally screwed up on handling the great depression. The problem was Hoover had a fixed set of notions on how the economy should work - and he refused to accept the evidence that his ideas weren’t working.
Historically, this problem was resolved when Hoover was voted out of office and replaced by Roosevelt. But that wouldn’t have happened if the presidency had been a lifetime office. Hoover would have stayed in office, he would have kept refusing to try any new ideas, and the depression would have kept getting worse and worse year after year.
That was not a stable situation. Even during Hoover’s four year in office, cracks had begun to show. There was a growing number of demagogues calling for radical changes and a growing number of people who were listening. If Hoover had stayed in power, I feel there would have been some kind of revolution - either from the far right or the far left.
The questions abound.
For example, would Nixon have gotten into Gulf War I? Or would Vietnam made him gunshy about foreign adventure? Then the butterfly flaps, and without Gulf War I would bin Laden have been incensed at an American that did not put troops into Saudi Arabia? No 9/11, no Iraq or Afghanistan invasion, etc.
Was Hoover isolationist? No lend/lease or help for Britain, perhaps no confrontational attitude to Japan? No Pearl Harbour from a threatened Japan?
What are the implications for a USA that never resolved the slavery question? An eventual parting of the ways between North and South? Would that lead to a failure to take California and Arizona?
Would John Adams have done the Louisiana Purchase?
To many “what if” questions. It’s butterflies all the way down (or up).
Could one assume that an American hereditary monarchy would, like the UK and at least some other European monarchies, have evolved towards a constitutional monarchy with the monarch as a symbolic figurehead rather than with the substantive powers and responsibilities of your actual Presidency?
It might even have started as one. Around the time America gained independence and wrote its constitution, some European monarchies were, as a result of Enlightenment, either already constitutional (UK) or transitioning to that phase, some more violently than others (France, Poland). Considering the role of popular representation in the War of Independence, I doubt anyone in America would have accepted a hereditary monarchy with an actually powerful monarch.
Since the new government was being created by the men who would become Congress, it seems obvious to me that they would put Congress above the monarchy.
Agreed, but recall that the first coherent account of how economies work as a whole was written in 1935. Before that, people used analogies from how individual markets operate. Roosevelt’s approach, i.e. “Well things obviously aren’t working so we should try everything all at once,” was atypical. Outside of fiction, has any other leader adopted such an aggressively experimental approach?
The 1935 work was systematized shortly afterwards and popularized by Paul Samuelson. So after WWII, we were able to hit the ground running. Meanwhile FDR’s policies pushed us in conflicting directions, but hey that what experimentation will do for you.
In other countries, economic expansion tended to begin shortly after each went off the gold standard (something that occurred simultaneously with another set of expansionary policies).
I agree with your take that Hoover would have been dangerous as a lifetime President, despite his rather impressive pre-Presidential record.