# Did anyone ever solve the mystery of that missle launch in November? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [June 30, 2011, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350 "2011-06-30T03:18:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![CC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f1d935/32.png) [@CC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CC)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/1 "2011-06-30T03:18:37Z")
So - did anyone ever figure out what was launched in California and why? ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/2 "2011-06-30T03:25:36Z")
Yes, it wasn’t a missile. It was a vapor trail from a plane. ---
**Author:** ![CC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f1d935/32.png) [@CC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CC)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/3 "2011-06-30T14:00:21Z")
Most peculiar. So many experts said that wasn’t it, and so many experts said it was clearly some sort of missle. Any good citations or source material on the final determination? ---
**Author:** ![Ferret\_Herder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e47774/32.png) [@Ferret\_Herder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ferret_Herder)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/4 "2011-06-30T14:05:13Z")
[Link](http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2010/11/video-kcbs-chopper-tapes-mystery-missile-launch-off-california-coast/1) - it’s a jet. ---
**Author:** ![Profound\_Gibberish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/65b543/32.png) [@Profound\_Gibberish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Profound_Gibberish)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/5 "2011-06-30T14:05:56Z")
It was very obviously an airplane from the images I saw, it was just at an odd angle with the sun and clouds, etc. At first glance it sure looked like a missle, but after watching it for a few seconds it is moving waaaayyyy to slow to be a missle. When the video was enlarged it clearly was an airplane. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/6 "2011-06-30T14:09:56Z")
And [here’s a pretty thorough analysis of the situation](http://blog.bahneman.com/content/it-was-us-airways-flight-808) that had me convinced, too, that it was a plane. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/7 "2011-06-30T15:06:42Z")
> [@CC](#): > > Most peculiar. So many experts said that wasn’t it, and so many experts said it was clearly some sort of missle. Any good citations or source material on the final determination? Can you point to an ‘expert’ who said it was a missile? ---
**Author:** ![CC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f1d935/32.png) [@CC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CC)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/8 "2011-06-30T15:17:20Z")
I guess I’d start with Robert Elsworth, a former deputy Secretary of Defense. He said, “It is a big missle.” > **[Mysterious missile lights up the sky over the Pacific](https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/mysterious-missile-lights-up-the-sky-over-the-pacific/509-34da28c8-1ed4-49cb-807c-bc2f332aa8b3)** > > A mysterious missile launch off the southern California coast was caught on video Monday evening by a KCBS news helicopter. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/9 "2011-06-30T15:23:49Z")
> [@CC](#): > > I guess I’d start with Robert Elsworth, a former deputy Secretary of Defense. He said, “It is a big missle.” > [Mysterious missile lights up the sky over the Pacific | cbs8.com](http://www.cbs8.com/story/13468118/mysterious-missile-lights-up-the-sky-over-the-pacific?redirected=true) Not in that story he didn’t. > [@](#): > > He said it didn’t appear to be a Tomahawk missile and said it would be safest to wait for definitive answers to come from the military. > > Based on pure speculation, however, Ambassador Ellsworth said, with President Obama in Asia, perhaps this could have been a show of our military muscle. > > “It could be a test firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile from an underwater submarine, to demonstrate mainly to Asia, that we can do that,” he said, stressing that it was just a theory. ---
**Author:** ![CC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f1d935/32.png) [@CC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CC)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/10 "2011-06-30T15:24:55Z")
listen to the vid, **Map**. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/11 "2011-06-30T15:33:18Z")
> [@](#): > > “It could be a test firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile from an underwater submarine, to demonstrate mainly to Asia, that we can do that,” he said, stressing that it was just a theory. Very lame explanation. The US test fires submarine launched ballistic missiles quite frequently, it isn’t like a show of force is necessary. It is even more implausible that we would fire a missile from the Pacific and aim it at Arizona. > **[Trident II D5 Missile Scores Record 134 Test Flights In A Row](https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Trident_II_D5_Missile_Scores_Record_134_Test_Flights_In_A_Row_999.html)** > > Sunnyvale CA (SPX) Jun 23, 2010 - > The U.S. Navy conducted successful test flights June 8 and 9 of four Trident II D5 Fleet Ballistic Missiles (FBMs) built by Lockheed Martin. The Navy launched the unarmed missiles from the submerged It was clearly and airplane, and Mr. Ellsworth clearly didn’t know what he was talking about. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/12 "2011-06-30T16:48:10Z")
> [@CC](#): > > I guess I’d start with Robert Elsworth, a former deputy Secretary of Defense. He said, “It is a big missle.” > [Mysterious missile lights up the sky over the Pacific | cbs8.com](http://www.cbs8.com/story/13468118/mysterious-missile-lights-up-the-sky-over-the-pacific?redirected=true) A quick look at the Wiki on Elsworth doesn’t show any expertise in identifying missiles and aircraft vapor trails. He doesn’t offer any technical description of the event. > [@](#): > > On November 9, 2010, Ellsworth provided commentary to KFMB regarding an unexplained missile launch off the coast of Los Angeles.\*\* He cautioned the news crew to wait for definitive answers from the military\*\*, then went on to speculate, “It could be a test firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile from a submarine, an underwater submarine, to demonstrate, mainly to Asia, that we could do that.” (bolding mine) We have the definitive answers from the military and other sources now. It wasn’t a missile, it was a plane. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/13 "2011-06-30T17:11:56Z")
The aircraft I’ve flown don’t go high enough to make contrails, and my missile experience is in processing radar cross-section data; so take this for what it’s worth. I’ve seen a buttload of contrails in my life, and several missile trails from Vandenberg AFB launches. Missile trails look more like these than the one in the OP: [![](http://lemonodor.com/archives/images/missile-trail-1.jpg) ](http://lemonodor.com/archives/images/missile-trail-1.jpg) [http://www.alaska-in-pictures.com/data/media/13/rocket-trail\_1113.jpg](http://www.alaska-in-pictures.com/data/media/13/rocket-trail_1113.jpg) [![](https://www.air-and-space.com/vafb/8804a%20l.jpg) ](https://www.air-and-space.com/vafb/8804a%20l.jpg) [http://prophecycorner.theforeverfamily.com/miniteman3missile-very%20best9-19-02.jpg](http://prophecycorner.theforeverfamily.com/miniteman3missile-very%20best9-19-02.jpg) . ---
**Author:** ![Inigo\_Montoya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inigo_montoya/32/124_2.png) [@Inigo\_Montoya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inigo_Montoya)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/14 "2011-06-30T18:57:06Z")
Why are they all wiggly? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/15 "2011-06-30T19:19:31Z")
> [@Inigo\_Montoya](#): > > Why are they all wiggly? Winds are at different directions and speeds at different altitudes. Check out this chart: ```auto 000 FDUW02 KWBC 301359 DATA BASED ON 301200Z VALID 301800Z FOR USE 1700-2100Z. TEMPS NEG ABV 24000 FT 3000 6000 9000 12000 18000 24000 30000 34000 39000 BIH 9900 3506+11 3312+07 3126-05 3032-17 313434 303944 293754 BLH 3506 2811+19 2421+16 2323+10 3015-04 3119-18 321334 361743 331952 FAT 9900 3508+14 3412+13 3315+09 3022-05 3027-17 303034 293744 293654 FOT 3615 3412+10 3011+08 3022+05 2946-08 2855-20 275936 276546 277854 ONT 9900 0912+19 9900+15 9900+11 2812-04 3213-18 341733 342043 322753 RBL 3406 9900+12 2808+09 3019+06 2937-07 2846-19 275135 275445 286554 SAC 3611 9900+14 3009+10 3215+08 3026-06 2928-18 283935 284144 284654 SAN 9900 9900+21 2310+17 2307+11 2908-04 3608-18 361333 021942 321352 SBA 9900 0608+18 0409+15 3611+10 2908-04 3414-18 341534 321843 312754 SFO 0406 3206+14 3114+11 3215+09 3120-06 2924-18 283534 283844 284254 SIY 9900+08 2712+05 2821+03 2845-09 2863-21 276837 277446 278554 WJF 0813+17 9900+14 3408+10 2815-04 3215-18 331834 322343 323054 AST 2511 2514+01 2515-02 2624-03 2737-14 2851-27 286043 277450 278052 IMB 2418-01 2521-01 2735-13 2749-25 278338 279447 279154 LKV 2516+03 2723+02 2844-09 2863-21 277036 277546 288254 OTH 2705 9900+02 2816+04 2825+01 2843-12 2866-23 278738 278947 279654 PDX 2309 2613+02 2718-03 2625-02 2835-14 2847-26 286143 278049 278652 RDM 2514+05 2515+01 2623+00 2838-13 2853-24 278638 279447 279454 GEG 2421+03 2523+00 2523-04 2537-16 2644-28 255444 266051 266250 SEA 2210 2520+01 2619-05 2627-05 2742-15 2752-28 286445 277051 276751 YKM 2808 2810+03 2618+00 2525-03 2735-15 2748-27 275844 276850 277351 ``` The top row of data is the altitude (MSL up to 12,000 ft, pressure altitude above that). The first column is the reporting station; for example, WJF is William J. Fox Airfield in Lancaster, CA. The 3,000 ft column is blank for WJF because the field elevation is 2,347 ft and winds are not given within 1,500 feet of field elevation. (Temperatures are not given for the first 2,500 feet AGL.) The first pair of numbers is the wind direction. For example, the winds at BLH at 6,000 feet are blowing from 280º. The second pair of numbers is the speed. The winds at 6,000 feet at BLH are blowing at 11 knots. The sign and the next two numbers are the temperature in ºC. (Note: All temps are negative above 24,000 feet.) So reading across the row for BLH we see that the winds are from 350º, 280º, 240º, 230º, 300º, 310º, 320º, 360º, and 330º; and that their speeds vary from 6 knots to 23 knots. (Oh – 9900 means winds are ‘light and variable’.) When an airplane makes a contrail, they are generally at a constant altitude. Winds will vary over time and make the contrail ‘wiggle’ a bit, but the contrails are pretty much straight. A missile goes from ground level to outside of the atmosphere, so it passes through many regions of differing wind directions and speeds. Thus the trail is perturbed more than contrail are. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/16 "2011-06-30T19:45:39Z")
> [@Inigo\_Montoya](#): > > Why are they all wiggly? Planes tend to fly at a more or less constant altitude where the wind speed and direction doesn’t vary much, so the whole contrail moves with the wind as it disperses. Ballistic missiles, sounding rockets, and space launch vehicles tend to fly up, gaining altitude much faster than any aircraft, and experience strong wind shear due to high gradients of wind motion at altitude, which often leaves a jagged looking plumetrail. In addition, solid rocket motors and storable liquid engines have a variety of heavier combustion products that separate out from the water vapor and disperse at different rates, so you get more diffusion and differentiation than the water vapor trails contrails left by aircraft. Some solid rockets also perform energy wasting “French Horn” maneuvers like [this](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/81/Tems11.jpg), giving a radical spiral. This is done to get rid of excess energy that is not needed to achieve the pierce point or intercept and prevent overshoot. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![mlees](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@mlees](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mlees)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/17 "2011-06-30T20:09:19Z")
[QUOTE=Stranger On A Train] Some solid rockets also perform energy wasting “French Horn” maneuvers like [this](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/81/Tems11.jpg), giving a radical spiral. This is done to get rid of excess energy that is not needed to achieve the pierce point or intercept and prevent overshoot. Stranger [/QUOTE] Pardon my ingnorance, but can’t they just put less fuel on the rocket in the first place? Rocket fuel must be expensive after all… ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/18 "2011-06-30T20:20:15Z")
> [@mlees](#): > > Pardon my ingnorance, but can’t they just put less fuel on the rocket in the first place? > > Rocket fuel must be expensive after all… Solid rockets can’t really be throttled. (Spaceship One’s, and maybe a few others’ excepted) Once you light them, they stay lit. I don’t know if you can even vary their burn rate once lit. And you can’t launch them with only, say, half of the propellant. IIRC, most of them are sealed units when they come from the factory. Modifying a solid rocket propellant column—by fluting it, or sawing off half of it—I think would be a good way for Very Bad Things to happen to your rocket. So, if the rocket finds itself going too fast to make it’s intercept, it needs to shed energy somehow. Hence the twists linked to by Stranger. (That a [Patriot](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot) launch, BTW? It looks like the tell-tale debris from the container at the launch point.) ---
**Author:** ![mlees](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@mlees](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mlees)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/19 "2011-06-30T20:39:54Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > Solid rockets can’t really be throttled. (Spaceship One’s, and maybe a few others’ excepted) Once you light them, they stay lit. I don’t know if you can even vary their burn rate once lit. And you can’t launch them with only, say, half of the propellant. IIRC, most of them are sealed units when they come from the factory. Modifying a solid rocket propellant column—by fluting it, or sawing off half of it—I think would be a good way for Very Bad Things to happen to your rocket. > > So, if the rocket finds itself going too fast to make it’s intercept, it needs to shed energy somehow. Hence the twists linked to by Stranger. (That a [Patriot](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot) launch, BTW? It looks like the tell-tale debris from the container at the launch point.) I kinda figured solid fueled rockets can’t be throttled, but I assumed each rocket is built to order. (I was also thinking about surface to orbit rockets for satellite launches, and completely forgot about the ton of various weaponised rockets.) I figured you could tell the manufacturer to provide one with less fuel in it. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2011, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350/20 "2011-06-30T21:28:50Z")
> [@CC](#): > > listen to the vid, **Map**. You’ve learned an important lesson, young Jedi. Never rely on videos for your news. 🙂 [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-anyone-ever-solve-the-mystery-of-that-missle-launch-in-november/587350.md?page=2)