# Did Roberts flip his vote at the 11th hour? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 28, 2012, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624 "2012-06-28T19:52:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2012, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/41 "2012-07-01T14:55:25Z")
Aside: [This TV appearance by Sotomayor](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FizspmIJbAw) is just wonderful. My suspicion is not that Roberts went over on his own, after some long dark tea-time of the soul, but that it was the result of horse-trading of the kind the Court never discusses. The fact that the four non-activist Justices (well, except Ginsburg) signed onto a cobbled-up bit of inconsistent illogic instead of proceeding with the obvious “Of fucking \*course \*it’s constitutional; just look at every related ruling we ever made in the 20th century”, suggests they offered to accept Roberts’ version as the price of getting his vote. Note that this decision is pretty activist, too - it effectively reverses _Wickard_ and undermines _Lochner_, along with other law that had heretofore been settled. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2012, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/42 "2012-07-01T15:25:27Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Apparently now some conservative pundits are saying Roberts flipped his vote because he is on epilepsy medication (you just can’t make this shit up): Okay conservatives. If the man is medically incompetent and unable to perform his job, then we need to impeach him immediately. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2012, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/43 "2012-07-01T16:19:21Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > I tend to go with the opinion that this is just another in a long line of Roberts pro-corporate decisions. The ACA IS a huge gift to big insurance companies, the very briar patch they would most dearly love to be thrown in. No more complex rule needs to be invoked. It was Roberts being Roberts. I just don’t buy that. My business provides health insurance to our employees, and it’s from one of the major insurance companies. I’ve gotten no less than 8-10 letters from my insurance company, complete with full color graphs and inserts explaining how the PPACA is the scourge of mankind and will bankrupt all small and medium sized businesses. If the insurance companies somehow secretly supported Obamacare, I would expect them to put their money there. Instead, at least from what I have seen, they have put a lot of money out there trying to scarmonger people into opposing Obamacare. (Note I’m not really an Obamacare supporter, but the “facts” my carrier was sending me about how disastrous Obamacare would be for my business were easily demonstrated as being false by me spending about 20 minutes on the internet and running some numbers through an Excel spreadsheet.) ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2012, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/44 "2012-07-01T16:36:26Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > Okay conservatives. If the man is medically incompetent and unable to perform his job, then we need to impeach him immediately. Don’t give them ideas! ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2012, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/45 "2012-07-01T16:51:10Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > I just don’t buy that. My business provides health insurance to our employees, and it’s from one of the major insurance companies. I’ve gotten no less than 8-10 letters from my insurance company, complete with full color graphs and inserts explaining how the PPACA is the scourge of mankind and will bankrupt all small and medium sized businesses. If the insurance companies somehow secretly supported Obamacare, I would expect them to put their money there. Instead, at least from what I have seen, they have put a lot of money out there trying to scarmonger people into opposing Obamacare. (Note I’m not really an Obamacare supporter, but the “facts” my carrier was sending me about how disastrous Obamacare would be for my business were easily demonstrated as being false by me spending about 20 minutes on the internet and running some numbers through an Excel spreadsheet.) AFAIK the reality is that health groups like Kaiser are supporters of the reform, others ambivalent and a good chunk in opposition, One big clue on who was more likely to be in opposition are outfits that indeed were not doing a good job of controlling their own costs. > **[Checks In The Mail: Millions Expected To Receive Insurance Rebates Totaling...](https://kffhealthnews.org/news/insurance-rebates-mlr/)** > > Study projects refunds under the health care law will vary widely by state. > [@](#): > > The percentage of consumers and businesses in line for rebates varies widely by state. In Texas, for example, 92 percent of consumers who purchased individual policies are expected to get rebates because insurers spent too little of their premium dollars on medical care. But in Vermont, Rhode Island, Iowa and Hawaii, insurers are likely to owe less than 1 percent of consumers who bought policies on the individual market. > > Under the federal law, insurers must spend at least 80 percent of premium revenues on medical costs or quality improvements; the remainder can go toward administrative costs, sales commissions and profits. If companies set premiums too high, rebates in the form of checks or discounts off future premiums are due consumers and businesses by Aug. 1. > > The requirement, aimed at holding insurers more accountable and slowing premium increases, went into effect last year and applies to all health plans, except those offered by self-insured employers. Insurers had criticized the rule as being too strict, while sales agents feared insurers would reduce their commissions. IIRC groups like Kaiser uses just about 10% in administrative costs, from there it follows that groups located in Texas, for example, would be most likely to fight against reform, it almost goes without saying, but I do think those outfits are very unethical. Overall though I still think that people in power like Judge Roberts do read the writing in the wall, even for the health groups that are affected he has thrown to all insurers a life saver. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2012, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/46 "2012-07-01T17:06:11Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > Don’t give them ideas! What? It’s a good idea. They’d probably get a lot of Dems in congress to support them! ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2012, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/47 "2012-07-01T22:01:16Z")
[Here is a pretty fascinating article that confirms Roberts switched his vote.](http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-3460_162-57464549/roberts-switched-views-to-uphold-health-care-law/?tag=contentMain;contentBody) \*Chief Justice John Roberts initially sided with the Supreme Court’s four conservative justices to strike down the heart of President Obama’s health care reform law, the Affordable Care Act, but later changed his position and formed an alliance with liberals to uphold the bulk of the law, according to two sources with specific knowledge of the deliberations. Roberts then withstood a month-long, desperate campaign to bring him back to his original position, the sources said. Ironically, Justice Anthony Kennedy - believed by many conservatives to be the justice most likely to defect and vote for the law - led the effort to try to bring Roberts back to the fold. \* Who knows how true any of this is, though. It’s my understanding that the behind-closed-doors operations of the USSC aren’t actually revealed to the public until years after the fact when a former clerk lets slip some information about a specific case or something. A leak like this - so soon after the decision came down - seems unlikely to be true. Still, it’s an interesting development if true. ---
**Author:** ![PrettyVacant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/49beb7/32.png) [@PrettyVacant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PrettyVacant)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2012, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/48 "2012-07-01T23:35:16Z")
> [@erislover](#): > > I’m reading through the case and I have to admit I have yet to find anything earth-shattering. What about this case will radically alter the future of jurisprudence? Question open to all. I know it feels all big n’ stuff because of the current political atmosphere but that makes _the bill signed into law_ a huge deal, not _this court case_. Sorry, I wasn’t referring to the legal aspect but rather the fact of his - and it appears to have been _his_ swing decision - that history may remember. Arguably, this decision may form the foundation for something greater and, ultimately, hugely valued. But I concede it might not look that way for a few decades yet. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2012, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/49 "2012-07-02T02:13:28Z")
I’ve gotten the impression that the right wing wanted to strike down the whole thing, and Roberts saw that as overreach. He probably really thinks that something which is effectively a tax penalty is permissible as such, and the other righties are just wrong. And their insistence on blowing up the whole thing probably helped push him in that direction. ---
**Author:** ![nogravity](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9d8465/32.png) [@nogravity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nogravity)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2012, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/50 "2012-07-02T02:55:38Z")
The plot seems to be thickening on this one regarding a possible leak in the Supreme Court, the right wing media and Robert’s vote. _“To be clear, at this point only two facts are confirmed: 1) According to Crawford, Roberts flipped his vote midstream; and 2) someone within the Court must have leaked her this information. It is perfectly appropriate for Justice Kennedy, or any other justice, for that matter, to internally lobby Roberts to try to obtain his vote in an important case. If a member of the Court has turned to conservative columnists like Will or reporters like Crawford in order to pressure and then embarrass Roberts, however, that would be a significant and unusual escalation from the justices’ regular tactics.”_ [http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2012/07/01/509359/supreme-court-springs-a-leak-leaks-to-conservative-pundits-may-have-started-more-than-a-month-ago/](http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2012/07/01/509359/supreme-court-springs-a-leak-leaks-to-conservative-pundits-may-have-started-more-than-a-month-ago/) ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2012, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/51 "2012-07-02T02:59:48Z")
Bringing the awesome power of George Will to bear? Brutal. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2012, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/52 "2012-07-02T03:07:19Z")
[CBS reports](http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-3460_162-57464549/roberts-switched-views-to-uphold-health-care-law/) that Roberts switched and tried to coax others from the conservative side to switch as well. The report cites unnamed sources. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2012, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/53 "2012-07-02T03:09:06Z")
Who gives a fuck? Unless he was paid off or something. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2012, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/54 "2012-07-02T05:13:56Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Bringing the awesome power of George Will to bear? Brutal. I’ve never known George Will to embarrass anyone but himself, but he does do that a lot. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2012, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/55 "2012-07-02T05:30:32Z")
That \*\*Iggy \*\*is the same link that **2ManyTacos** used and the TMP article also does refer to it. I actually do think this is important in the sense that what is happening is that Judge Roberts is finding first hand what does it mean to be at the other end of the current “we will bury you” rude style of the Tea Partiers that have almost driven out all moderate voices among conservatives. Time will tell, but this could be historical in the sense that what the extreme conservatives are doing now to Roberts in the right wing media and inside the justice chambers (I do not think leaks like that are done unless some people are really pissed) could lead him to be more in tune to the court members that lean left in future discussions of cases. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2012, 9:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/56 "2012-07-02T09:09:38Z")
> [@Iggy](#): > > [CBS reports](http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-3460_162-57464549/roberts-switched-views-to-uphold-health-care-law/) that Roberts switched and tried to coax others from the conservative side to switch as well. The report cites unnamed sources. Interesting as the Supreme Court hasn’t tended to leak information to reporters (as opposed to authors of books) in the past. Business reporter [Felix Salmon]([http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/07/02/when-the-supreme-court-](http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/07/02/when-the-supreme-court-) leaks/) notes: As Crawford says, “the justices are notoriously close-lipped, and their law clerks must agree to keep matters completely confidential”. And yet, we’re now seeing these coordinated and perfectly-timed leaks from within the Court, detailing information known only to the justices themselves. …Lawyers… tend to be good at keeping secrets. On the other hand, partisan politicians are not. And it seems very much as though the more partisan Republicans within the Supreme Court have in this case behaved more like politicians than like jurists. [Crawford](http://www.cbsnews.com/2102-3460_162-57464549.html?tag=contentMain;contentBody): The fact that the joint dissent doesn’t mention Roberts’ majority was not a sign of sloppiness, the sources said, but instead was a signal the conservatives no longer wished to engage in debate with him. If that is the case -and the sourcing appears to be impeccable- the conservative wing is certainly not displaying judicial temperament. It is said that Thomas avoids reading the New York Times because he believes it to be too liberal. [Epistemic closure](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epistemic_closure)? ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/57 "2012-07-03T19:09:05Z")
Some new info: > [@](#): > > **Roberts wrote both Obamacare opinions** > > A Court source tells Salon the chief justice wrote the majority opinion and much of the dissent in the ACA case > > This weekend CBS News’ Jan Crawford reported that Chief Justice John Roberts switched his vote in regard to upholding the bulk of the Affordable Care Act. Crawford reports that Roberts voted with the rest of the court’s conservatives to strike down the individual mandate, but in the course of drafting his opinion changed his mind, and ended up siding with the court’s four liberals to uphold almost all of the law. > > SOURCE: [www.salon.com/2012/07/03/roberts\_wrote\_both\_obamacare\_opinions/](http://www.salon.com/2012/07/03/roberts_wrote_both_obamacare_opinions/) ---
**Author:** ![nogravity](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9d8465/32.png) [@nogravity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nogravity)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/58 "2012-07-03T19:26:36Z")
I just read that too. And, oddly enough, it was Clarence Thomas who let the media know 2 months ago how it was going down. [ThinkProgess/](http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2012/07/03/510247/thomas-crawford-leaks/) ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/59 "2012-07-03T19:39:00Z")
I agree that the tone of the opinions seems to imply a late switch. When I heard that the law was upheld 5-4, I was looking forward to reading my Scalia dissenting rant later than evening. Where was it? Perhaps not enough time to write it due to the late switch? And Thomas. He wrote his two paragraph thoughts about how the Commerce Clause should be returned to pre-Gibbons days, but no similar pot shots at how now the Feds can tax breathing. And shouldn’t the four-conservative opinion have been entitled “concurring in part, dissenting in part, and dissenting in the judgment” instead of simply “dissenting”? They did side with Roberts on the Commerce Clause argument but did not mention his opinion at all. Further, the whole dissent had an authoritative tone like it was setting the law instead of arguing against a majority opinion. Perhaps because it WAS originally the majority opinion. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2012, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624/60 "2012-07-03T19:41:53Z")
They didn’t concur in part, though. They reached the same result on the Commerce Clause issue but specifically chose not to join in that section of the majority opinion, so presumably they believe their holding on the CC issue is not the same as the majority’s. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-roberts-flip-his-vote-at-the-11th-hour/626624.md?page=4)