Assad had no good reason to gas these people. He’s effectively won the civil war and this doesn’t make his victory any greater.
This is specifically aimed at testing Trump & Co. and how they will react to provocation by a Russian proxy.
This was only a test.
If he’s won the war, why does he need to test us?
I wasn’t clear. I meant that this is Putin doing the testing, by proxy.
I thought Trump was Putin’s puppet.
Only one way to be sure if that’s still the case.
Trump just met with King Abdullah of Jordan. Given Trump’s tendency to be easily influenced by the last person he speaks with, I’m sure he’s convinced that what’s needed here is a good stern bombing of Assad. Hence the tough talk today. Let’s see if he feels the same way in a day or two. Or even tomorrow morning.
Why would Abdullah want the US to bomb Assad? Assad = stability. Assad must go = instability. No one wants instability on his own borders.
Has anyone here asserted, except hyperbolically, that Trump is a Manchurian candidate or Putin’s puppet?
What has been asserted, with evidence, is that Trump and his associates have strong business ties to Russia, that Russia helped elect Trump, that Trump and Putin have professed strong affinities for each other, and that Trump has already shown disdain for NATO’s guarantees of protection against Russia. There is an understandable fear that Trump will move U.S. policy closer to a Russian orbit. Given this, it is also understandable that Putin would want to explore Trump’s affinity.
You’re smart enough to understand this, John. Why the need for the snappy, obfuscating non sequiturs?
An unstable neighbor is still better than a stable, powerful, hostile neighbor.
King Abdullah made it very clear today that he views the Israel/Palestine issue as the root cause of the disfunction in the region and that needs to be the priority.
You could almost read between the lines that he was looking for some help from someone other than Jared.
In addition to support from Russia, Syria is allied with Iran. It’s not in Jordan’s interest to have that kind of stable hostile force on its border. There are no good options in the region. I think a stable and strong Assad (backed by Russia and Iran) is the worst alternative with respect to its neighbours.
Here’s the thing though. I don’t think Putin cares all that much about stability in Syria. All he wants to ensure is that their naval port is protected by a friendly (to Russia) regime. I think Putin would be willing to agree to giving Assad a symbolic slap on the wrist if the US/West would agree to relax some of the current sanctions against Russia.
So this is the test. What will Trump & Co. do next… talk tough but relax sanctions or do something less predictable? In other words, how useful of an idiot is Trump going to be?
[QUOTE=QuickSilver]
In addition to support from Russia, Syria is allied with Iran. It’s not in Jordan’s interest to have that kind of stable hostile force on its border. There are no good options in the region. I think a stable and strong Assad (backed by Russia and Iran) is the worst alternative with respect to its neighbours.
[/QUOTE]
Where do you get this from? Jordan’s only participation in Syria has been to bomb ISIS/ISIL camps, and that was sparked by ISIS actions in Jordan. They actually negotiated with Syria TOO drop the bombs. Also, it’s in Jordan’s best interest to have stability in Syria due to the refugee situation. AFAIK, Jordan’s king would be the last to ask the US to directly intervene in Syria against Assad. Though perhaps my perception is off, thus the first question in this post.
We all know ISIL is not the main focal point of Assad’s (or Putin’s) bombing in this civil war.
Like I said, there are not good options. I think Assad’s continued instability is the lesser of the two evils for Jordan. I think Israel feels the same way. Last thing they want is a stable and emboldened Iranian ally on their northern border.
Again, my long view of things is that this isn’t about what Jordan or Israel wants from the US. It’s about what Putin wants from the US.
I have no clue where some of you are getting your understanding of Jordan’s position on Assad. Abdullah was the first Arab leader to call on him to step down; he has attempted to negotiate cease-fires to allow a political process to take over only to had Assad violate them at every turn; he knows damn well that something like 2 million Syrian refugees in Jordan aren’t about to return to Syria under that strongman because they’d likely face execution or torture; and so on.
Not to mention that probably every Arab leader in the world hates Assad.
I’m not sure where we find disagreement about that.
I’m not disagreeing with your comments, I’m referring to posts like these –
Yeah, not sure how Assad can be seen as a stabilizing force to date or in the future.
Stay or go, Syria’s stability is not something that’s going to happen any time soon.
First of all, there’s a difference between Assad “stepping down” and the US bombing him out of office. Secondly, they can all hate him as much as they like, but they’re not doing squat to get rid of him and they know damn well what will happen if there is a power vacuum like there was in Iraq.
The claim was made that Abdullah whispered in Trump’s ear to bomb Assad. I doubt it. But if someone has some proof, I’m open to considering it.
Assad is the same sort of ‘stabilizing force’ that, oh, say Kim Jong-un is. Like China, Jordan basically just wants the status-quo wrt refugees. In addition, Jordan is not exactly a huge fan of US interventions in their region…in fact, outside of Iran I’d bet that Jordan is the LEAST likely to want the US to more directly involve itself in Syria. So, I’m doubtful that Jordan’s king would want the US to directly intervene (which was the original assertion I was responding too, btw). But, as I said, I could be wrong, so was asking you where you were getting your train of thoughts on this from.
Since I also was confused by Ravenman’s post, I’ll see if I can answer that as well.
[QUOTE=Ravenman]
I have no clue where some of you are getting your understanding of Jordan’s position on Assad. Abdullah was the first Arab leader to call on him to step down; he has attempted to negotiate cease-fires to allow a political process to take over only to had Assad violate them at every turn; he knows damn well that something like 2 million Syrian refugees in Jordan aren’t about to return to Syria under that strongman because they’d likely face execution or torture; and so on.
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Yes, Abdullah certainly wants Assad gone. But I don’t believe that he wants the US to intervene to make him gone. However bad the current refugee situation is, it would be a lot worse (from Jordan’s perspective) if the US took a more direct and forceful hand against Assad et al, instead of against ISIS as we’ve been doing. Even leaving aside a possible clash with Russia, it wouldn’t be pretty, especially at this point (plus, you have the whole ‘who trusts Trump to do anything in the ME in any fashion that isn’t a total cluster fuck?’).
As to the last there, I’d say there is a better chance that refugees would return to Syria if Assad comes out on top than if the whole country explodes because the US directly intervened.
I cop to making the assertion that Abdullah whispered in Trump’s ear to intervene militarily in Syria to cripple Assad’s ability to use chemical weapons.
I think it would be a foolish thing to do, given Russia presence and the potential problems it would cause. I was just puzzled by Trump’s sudden “change of attitude”, what with the King of Jordan in the White House at the time.
I think Trump was compelled to say something but not anything too inflammatory towards Russia.