# Did the GOP underperform this election cycle? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 10, 2022, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669 "2022-11-10T00:55:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/1 "2022-11-10T00:55:52Z")
In comparison to expectations and actual advantages? If so, to what extent? (Encompassing all races, not just for federal government, thus why I started a new thread.) Related question: how did the polls perform? ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/2 "2022-11-10T02:06:33Z")
According to this article in the _New Yorker_ last week, Republicans were talking big: > [@](#): > > On Wednesday afternoon, I spoke with a leading Republican political consultant about the Senate campaign in Georgia. That race is strategically significant for both parties, but it has a special symbolic importance for Democrats. The incumbent, Raphael Warnock, who for many years has occupied Martin Luther King, Jr.,’s pulpit at Ebenezer Baptist Church, in Atlanta, is seen as a potential national leader of the Democratic Party—and he may still lose to a scandal-ridden ex-football star, the Republican Herschel Walker. The Republican consultant told me that Warnock’s prospects were even bleaker than many recent public polls suggest. “There isn’t a single private poll in America that has Herschel Walker anything but ahead,” the Republican consultant told me. “Not one.” > > The consensus among a number of G.O.P. pollsters and operatives I spoke to this week is that in the Senate races that are thought to be competitive, Republican candidates are heading for a clean sweep: Mehmet Oz will beat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, and not just by a point or two; Adam Laxalt looks pretty certain to defeat the incumbent Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada; even less regarded candidates such as Blake Masters in Arizona will be carried into office by a predicted wave. “He won’t deserve it, but I think at this point he falls into a Senate seat,” one Republican strategist told me. To these Republican insiders, certain high-profile races in which G.O.P. candidates were already favored now look like potential blowouts— Kari Lake’s campaign for governor in Arizona, J. D. Vance’s for Senate in Ohio. And some races that seemed out of reach, such as the Senate campaign, in New Hampshire, of the election denier Don Bolduc, now look like possible wins. **The word that kept coming up in these conversations was “bloodbath.”** If that is an accurate summary of the Republicans’ “inside baseball” expectation, then yes, they did underperform. > **[Why Republican Insiders Think the G.O.P. Is Poised for a Blowout](https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/why-republican-insiders-think-the-gop-is-poised-for-a-blowout)** > > The consensus among pollsters and consultants is this Tuesday’s election will be a “bloodbath” for the Democratic Party. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/3 "2022-11-10T02:08:47Z")
[Electoral-vote.com](http://Electoral-vote.com), which is an independent poll aggregator, had a final prediction for the Senate on November 7 as ending up 50-50. Of the three Senate seats that are currently undecided, they predicted that Arizona and Georgia would be “barely Democratic”, and Nevada would be “likely GOP”. Isn’t that pretty close to what the situation is right now, although votes are still being counted? Since that site relies on independent polls, unconnected to any political campaign, those predictions suggest that the polls had it right. > **[Electoral-vote.com](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2022/Senate/Maps/Nov07.html)** > > Track the 2022 Senate election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/4 "2022-11-10T02:15:03Z")
Don’t have any info on state races, sorry. ---
**Author:** ![cochrane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cochrane/32/10441_2.png) [@cochrane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cochrane)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/5 "2022-11-10T03:07:16Z")
In Pennsylvania, Oz has already conceded to Fetterman. And in Arizona, Mark Kelly and Katie Hobbs hold slim leads, although the vote count isn’t yet complete. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/6 "2022-11-10T03:13:42Z")
The Republicans put on the wrong show-they thought people were looking for Trump clones, and either even Republicans are tired of Trump 24/7/365, or people just recognize desperate shmoozing when they see it. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/7 "2022-11-10T03:19:09Z")
Well. The Dems lost fewer seats in the House of Representatives than any Democratic president’s first midterm election in at least 40 years. More recently… Obama lost 63 seats Clinton lost 52 seats Reagan lost 26 seats Carter lost 15 seats Biden…less than 15, for sure. And they had the best midterms for Governors since 1986. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/8 "2022-11-10T03:21:52Z")
Reagan?? ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/9 "2022-11-10T03:25:06Z")
Not listing Dems, listing recent Prezzes…. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/10 "2022-11-10T03:28:12Z")
But by that standard you left out the two recent Presidents who don’t support your point – W. actually gained 4 seats in his first midterm, and his dad only lost 8. Still, the overall trend since WWII is that the President’s party loses on average 26 seats during midterm elections. Clearly Republicans did not meet expectations. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/11 "2022-11-10T03:28:52Z")
Republicans thought there was blood in the water, with inflation being such an issue. It turned out to be Kool-Aid. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/12 "2022-11-10T03:35:17Z")
Yeah, the Democrats did well for being the party in power during this inflation crisis and general economic/societal pessimism. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/13 "2022-11-10T03:35:18Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > But by that standard you left out the two recent Presidents who don’t support your point – W. actually gained 4 seats in his first midterm, and his dad only lost 8. > > Still, the overall trend since WWII is that the President’s party loses on average 26 seats during midterm elections. Clearly Republicans did not meet expectations. Fair. I was cherry-picking! Still, as you note, this was a good cycle for Dems. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/14 "2022-11-10T03:46:43Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > he Republicans put on the wrong show-they thought people were looking for Trump clones, and either even Republicans are tired of Trump 24/7/365 For what it’s worth, the guys at the bar I go to were all blaming the lack of a red wave solely on Trump and expressed a unanimous opinion that it’s time for him to ‘go away’. These were all fervent Trump supporters a year or so ago. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/15 "2022-11-10T03:50:15Z")
> **[Distracted Boyfriend](https://imgflip.com/i/707gyy)** > > A Distracted Boyfriend meme. Caption your own images or memes with our Meme Generator. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/16 "2022-11-10T03:58:36Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > For what it’s worth, the guys at the bar I go to were all blaming the lack of a red wave solely on Trump and expressed a unanimous opinion that it’s time for him to ‘go away’. These were all fervent Trump supporters a year or so ago. They’re not alone: > [@](#): > > “A couple of weeks ago, everybody’s feeling really good. Everybody was focused on the economy and inflation and crime,” said one GOP strategist. “And then, it was kind of funny, we all talked amongst ourselves, ‘Trump’s been kinda quiet.’ And he did a little bit of a victory tour the week before because he wanted to get credit … and I think he just reengaged and everybody was like, ‘What?’” > > “Most of what I am hearing from members, staff and others is a combination of abortion and overlay of Trump. If he had kept his mouth shut the last 10 days about the 2024 presidential race, several races could have been different today,” added GOP lobbyist and fundraiser T.J. Petrizzo. > **[Republicans' underwhelming midterm sparks blame game, calls for 'soul searching'](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/republicans-underwhelming-midterm-sparks-blame-game-calls-soul/story?id=92999253)** > > Republicans are sifting through the reality of a disappointing midterm election night and the knives are out for who in the party may be to blame ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 8:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/17 "2022-11-10T08:05:59Z")
On the one hand, yes, it’s true, the GOP has transitioned from merely talking a big game to actively drinking their own koolaid. They used to manufacture an artificial truth for their rube base; they now believe in it themselves. This election, absolutely, has been a rude awakening that their fantasy does not actually align with hard reality. On the other hand: rude awakenings _suck._ And rather than adjust their tactics to accommodate the real world, we should expect the GOP to double down on their destruction of democracy, such that future elections can be guaranteed to conform to their self-serving illusions. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 8:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/18 "2022-11-10T08:29:46Z")
> [@DeadTreasSecretaries](#): > > Yeah, the Democrats did well for being the party in power during this inflation crisis and general economic/societal pessimism. Some of us recognized that the current administration is not to blame for this “inflation crisis” which is _global_ and in most places worse than the US. Every damn ad I saw from a Republican candidate this time around was “OMG! BE AFRAID! THE WORLD IS SHIT BECAUSE OF _THEM_, VOTE FOR US OR IT WILL GET WORSE! BE AFRAID!” Not one word on how the current pile of mess would be fixed, or at least addressed. Democrats were “we’ll back this legislation, we are for this, we disagree with that and will try to pass legislation to protect your rights” with a side order of fear/vote for us. Guess which way I voted. I don’t want to hear complaints or someone telling me the world sucks when they’re a candidate for office - if I want that I turn on the broadcast news. I want a political candidate telling me what they’re going to try to _do_. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 9:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/19 "2022-11-10T09:05:12Z")
I think the elephant in the room for the GOP (pun intended) was the SCOTUS decision on Roe. I think it motivated a lot more people to vote who may have otherwise stayed home. If that decision had not happened, say the court kicked it back to the state or simply didn’t hear it this time around, I believe the red wave would have been massive compared to what it was(n’t). Always be careful of what you wish for. ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669/20 "2022-11-10T15:52:33Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > I think the elephant in the room for the GOP (pun intended) was the SCOTUS decision on Roe. This was part of it, but another big part of it was trump’s meddling and the promotion of inferior R candidates who were pro-trump election deniers. Since, after the 2020 election, otherwise good Repubs had the sheer audacity to not illegally invalidate the vote count in states where Biden won, such as SOS Raffensperger in Georgia, trump pushed for pro-trump election denialists in as many states as possible. The litmus test was not how well-qualified they were for the office, but how much they paid lip service to and bowed down to trump. As with everything trump is involved in, it was not about party, it was only about trump. Back in the 2018 midterms in which the House went D, the 2022 GA runoff that resulted in the Senate going D, and of course the Presidency going D, a very strong argument can be made that that all happened due to trump’s meddling, incompetence, and utter disregard for anything other than his own good fortunes. It still did not seem to lessen his grip on the party. Maybe the 2022 midterms will be the final straw that gets the Republican party to shed the albatross around their necks that is trump and trumpism. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-the-gop-underperform-this-election-cycle/974669.md?page=2)