Hmm. Sounds like there’s a Great Debate a-brewin’. Chronos told me his knee is acting up, so I think there might be one on the way.
Let’s try to restrict the question: What historical evidence suggests whether the developers of the atomic bomb seriously contemplated using the thing in Europe had the war dragged out that long? The European theater had closed by the time the bomb was ready, but not when it was authorized. What was the thinking of American leaders at the time?
All the other stuff belongs in GD. I’m sure they’ll be happy to accomodate you there.
I don’t believe there were ever any plans, however tenuous, to use nuclear bombs in Europe during WW2. Sure the bomb was in (early) development from September ’42 but nothing was firmed up until they knew it would work. It’s worth remembering the sheer scale of the Manhatten Project, how fraught it was with setbacks and how it was difficult to gauge how and when all the aspects would actually come together.
The key stage in the process of establishing where to use the bomb would have been the opinion of the ‘Target Committee’ – the body designated with the responsibility of determining a shortlist of possible targets. However, this Committee wasn’t formed until 27th April 1945 and the war in Europe was all but over (Germany finally capitulated on the 8th of May).
Also, while they scaled up the testing over time, the first ever atomic explosion took place on 16th July 1945 – 9 weeks after VE Day.
We could speculate that they speculated but no one really knew for sure the thing would work until Germany was already certain to be defeated with acceptable conventional losses.
Had the timing been different, I’d speculate (without any cite) that Truman would not have persuaded Churchill of the merits of using the thing in Europe.
With little bearing on the issue but perhaps worth mentioning, Churchill (much later) memorably said:
“If you go on with this nuclear arms race, all you are going to do is make the rubble bounce.”