# Direct Hit by Solar Storm Predicted for July 19th **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [July 18, 2022, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120 "2022-07-18T02:16:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2022, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120/1 "2022-07-18T02:16:03Z")
> **[Solar storm alert! Massive solar flare heading towards Earth, threatens...](https://tech.hindustantimes.com/tech/news/solar-storm-alert-massive-solar-flare-heading-towards-earth-threatens-blackouts-71658040124782.html)** > > A massive solar flare escaped from the Sun towards the Earth! NOAA has warned about possible radio blackouts as a consequence of resultant solar storm in the coming days. > **[Leading space science expert predicts a 'direct hit' on Earth from a solar storm](https://interestingengineering.com/science/solar-storm-direct-hit-earth)** > > Dr. Tamitha Skov, known as the "Space Weather Woman," predicted a "direct hit" from a solar storm on Tuesday. She shared the news along with a NASA prediction model video. > **[EarthSky | Geomagnetic storms: Will you lose power where you live?](https://earthsky.org/earth/geomagnetic-storms-lose-power-maps/)** \*\*At last.A story about something _other than_ Donald Trump. \*\* ☠ ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2022, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120/2 "2022-07-18T02:27:27Z")
So, what does this mean for commercial air travel? ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2022, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120/3 "2022-07-18T02:46:30Z")
Maybe we’ll see the Aurora Borealis here in the middle latitudes. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2022, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120/4 "2022-07-18T03:01:26Z")
Is there a credible source for this really being anything unusual? These news stores seem both sensational and vague. The first story talks about NOAA, but provides no link to any NOAA alert. The dramatic quote from NASA is… their definition of what a solar flare is. Here is the NOAA site, which says nothing remotely like this. [https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/) [Alerts, Watches and Warnings | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings) It all seems to trace back to someone called Tamitha Skov: > She talks about NASA, but again fails to provide any link to anyone from NASA actually saying anything like this, and I can’t find anything from NASA. If you google “NASA blogs solar flare”, there are entries for solar flare observations every few weeks, but nothing new in the last few days. I’m leaning toward this being bullshit, but I just bought a new roll of tin foil so I’m all set just in case. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2022, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120/5 "2022-07-18T03:28:34Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > Is there a credible source for this really being anything unusual? The last one that I recall being talked about on the news was back in March of 2012. It screwed up a live webcast we were doing so badly for my organization that we’re pre-recorded every single one since. ---
**Author:** ![Bootb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19b73/32.png) [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2022, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120/6 "2022-07-18T03:57:56Z")
It’s hard to tell what’s actually going on, but this Dr. Tamitha Skov doesn’t seem to be near the expert that she’s making herself out to be. Even if she’s correct that the CME could produce a G-3 storm, that’s nowhere near the worst. > **[SANSA Space Weather - Geomagnetic Storm Scale](https://spaceweather.sansa.org.za/space-weather-information/definitions/noaa-scales/297-geomagnetic-storm-scale)** > > South African National Space Agency And apparently the flare was only an M2.9 – which is fairly strong, but nowhere near as strong as X-class; and every solar cycle produces X-class flares once it really gets active. This cycle has already produced an X2.2. [https://www.solarham.net/top10.htm](https://www.solarham.net/top10.htm) The main page of the SolarHam website says, “NOAA/SWPC predict that the very slow moving CME could reach Earth by July 20-21. A noteworthy impact to our geomagnetic field is not expected.” ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2022, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120/7 "2022-07-18T18:11:33Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > So, what does this mean for commercial air travel? This particular “alert” is nothing but click-grabbing by a lying internet blowhard. Per NOAA, nothing significant is actually going to happen. So no impact on air travel. But the aviation industry does monitor solar activity in real time. And watches the forecasts carefully. Under poor solar conditions flights in the polar regions may be operated at lower altitudes and / or lesser latitudes to reduce the effect of increased radiation. At the cost of increased fuel burn and increased trip time. In some cases the larger concern is interference with long range radio communications rather than potential harm to the people on the airplanes. That can also result in route closures. In all, the ordinary sorts of “bad solar weather” events are like any other sort of bad weather or vulcanism. They represent an impediment to be managed around, not a disaster to be cleaned up after. Having said that, something like the > **[Carrington Event](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event)** > > The Carrington Event was the most intense geomagnetic storm in recorded history, peaking from 1 to 2 September 1859 during solar cycle 10. It created strong auroral displays that were reported globally and caused sparking and even fires in multiple telegraph stations. The geomagnetic storm was most likely the result of a coronal mass ejection (CME) from the Sun colliding with Earth's magnetosphere. > The geomagnetic storm was associated with a very bright solar flare on 1 September 1859. It was... happening today may well do some lasting damage to lots of our tech & our economies. Of which the impact on air travel would be but one factor. Even a Carrington event is very unlikely to cause airplanes to start falling from the sky though. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2022, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120/8 "2022-07-18T18:31:28Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > This particular “alert” is nothing but click-grabbing by a lying internet blowhard. I get the impression that this is self-promoting cickbait in her self-appointed role as “Space Weather Woman”. Presumably her plan is to predict a disaster every month, then at some point in the next 100 years say “I told you so”. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2022, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120/9 "2022-07-18T19:24:31Z")
Sounds a lot like the recent click-mongering of the Super Blood Stupid Werewolf Moon ilk. One can apparently make a lot of money a penny at a time by lying to the gullible. ---
**Author:** ![JohnGalt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johngalt/32/184_2.png) [@JohnGalt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnGalt)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2022, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120/10 "2022-07-19T02:35:57Z")
My NOAA Northern Lights app shows small chances for tonight (although it’s still 7/18 locally, the forecast is UTC so 7/19) at 4 and 7/20 at a level of 2, but 7/21 is up to 5(G1). [Aurora Forecast](https://www.gi.alaska.edu/monitors/aurora-forecast) says on 7/21 aurora will be visible as far south as Des Moines. The moon is in the third-quarter, so get out and look! ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2022, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120/11 "2022-07-20T14:26:14Z")
I forgot to check, are we still here? Did we all get vaporized by the solar storm? Did all our electronics stop working? I hope we’re not all dead right now. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2022, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120/12 "2022-07-20T14:36:39Z")
She turned me into a newt! ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2022, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120/13 "2022-07-20T14:39:28Z")
Just be grateful that it wasn’t a skink, given recent developments. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2022, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120/14 "2022-07-20T14:40:52Z")
Hmm, I am missing a tail. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2022, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/direct-hit-by-solar-storm-predicted-for-july-19th/968120/15 "2022-07-20T19:25:58Z")
It’ll grow back. This has been a nothingburger, which is awesome because a CME-induced power outage would cost lives in areas that need air conditioning to cope with life-threatening temperatures.