# Discuss This Interactive Electoral Map and Implications for '04 Presidential Race **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 5, 2003, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620 "2003-11-05T21:30:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2003, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/1 "2003-11-05T21:30:49Z")
John Edwards has put up an interesting [Interactive Electoral Map](http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/) on his website. It shows the states carried by Bush and Gore respectively in 2002. By clicking the states, you can change the vote there to see what the outcome would have been had that state voted differently. (I’m sure the point Edwards hopes to make is that by flipping North Carolina the Democrats could win.) The map is thought-provoking. For example, it’s been a truism in some circles (and I’m probably guilty of repeating it myself) that Democrats need to win at least one Southern state to take the White House. But all you have to do is click Indiana or Ohio over into the Democratic camp to see that’s not so. For debate: what states do you think are most likely to flip to the Democrats in '04? Are any Democratic states apt to flip to the Republicans? Does fiddling with this map suggest a strategy for either side? Thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![Dogface](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9d8465/32.png) [@Dogface](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dogface)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2003, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/2 "2003-11-05T22:29:56Z")
By the by, Democrats have made surprising gains in this year’s off-year elections in Indiana. Oddly enough, Bush has been giving Indiana unheard-of levels of personal attention in the last year or so. It used to be that no Republican President or Presidential candidate even bothered with the state–no need. ---
**Author:** ![bughunter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/aeb1de/32.png) [@bughunter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bughunter)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2003, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/3 "2003-11-05T23:33:01Z")
New Hampshire. I don’t think the voters in NH will vote Bush again. And with their 4 electoral votes, it will only require one of the midwestern/mountain states to also flip in order to put the Big Blue guy back ni the White House. And I ain’t talkin’ The Tick. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/4 "2003-11-06T00:08:30Z")
OK, so Indiana may be in play. New Hampshire is in play. Florida will be in play. What about Ohio? Is it solidly Republican these days, or will it be up for grabs? I’m looking for states that might flip from Democrat to Republican, but I’m not seeing any on that map. Am I wrong? Are Oregon and Washington candidates to go Republican? Any other states up for grabs? ---
**Author:** ![Priam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/77aa72/32.png) [@Priam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Priam)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/5 "2003-11-06T00:18:45Z")
Kentucky is probably not easily up for grabs, given recent trends. All the state-level elections yesterday were won by Republicans, ousting a Democratic stranglehold by very solid margins. ---
**Author:** ![Yossarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/9de0a6/32.png) [@Yossarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yossarian)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/6 "2003-11-06T15:41:10Z")
Not quite _all_… [http://www.kentucky.com/mld/heraldleader/7185652.htm](http://www.kentucky.com/mld/heraldleader/7185652.htm) ---
**Author:** ![Sterra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8c91f0/32.png) [@Sterra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sterra)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/7 "2003-11-06T15:49:56Z")
I’d say Ohio is up for grabs. If I recall correctly it only narrowly went to Bush after Gore wrote it off in the last few weeks. Btw, click on Alabama on that map and see what happens. ---
**Author:** ![IzzyR](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/2acd7d/32.png) [@IzzyR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IzzyR)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/8 "2003-11-06T15:55:54Z")
It is a huge mistake to look at these maps and do state-by-state analysis. A rising tide lifts all boats, and an ebbing one drops them all. If Bush does well with the country as a whole, it will be reflected in the individual polls of numerous states - states that were solidly Democratic will become competitive, states that were competitive will become wins etc. Conversely if the Democrats do well on a national level. This is how the election gets won and lost, not by focusing on winning this or that state. Of course, there can be complicating factors in individual states. But these are dwarfed by the bigger picture. I believe Michael Dukakis put out a study showing that had he won all the states that he won, plus a few other states that were close, he would have won the election. Silly silly. ---
**Author:** ![laigle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ce7236/32.png) [@laigle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/laigle)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/9 "2003-11-06T16:05:45Z")
It would be helpful if the map also reflected which states are all or nothing, and which are proportional to the vote. I for one rarely remember which are which, and that does make a big difference in the outcome in a close election. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/10 "2003-11-06T17:02:36Z")
So **Izzy** , from your “Harumph” may I take you can’t spot any blue states that will flip to Bush? 😉 I disagree with your post. State-by-State analysis is critical to a national election. You have to decide where to focus your resources, and you focus those resources in the swing states. To ignore the Electoral College would be folly. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/11 "2003-11-06T17:17:24Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by laigle \* > \*\*It would be helpful if the map also reflected which states are all or nothing, and which are proportional to the vote. I for one rarely remember which are which, and that does make a big difference in the outcome in a close election. \*\* It’s only [Nebraska and Maine.](http://www.s-t.com/daily/10-00/10-25-00/a05wn005.htm) ---
**Author:** ![IzzyR](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/2acd7d/32.png) [@IzzyR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IzzyR)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/12 "2003-11-06T17:19:18Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by spoke- \* > So **Izzy** , from your “Harumph” may I take you can’t spot any blue states that will flip to Bush? 😉 Something like that. You can take it that I’m not going to even bother looking. (As you may recall, I’ve already made my prediction that Bush will win re-election, and I haven’t seen anything to change my mind since that point.) > [@](#): > > I disagree with your post. State-by-State analysis is critical to a national election. You have to decide where to focus your resources, and you focus those resources in the swing states. To ignore the Electoral College would be folly. I believe you’ve misunderstood my post. Of course state-by-state analysis matters to a campaign strategist, for the reasons you mention. It does not generally matter to someone handicapping the election. ---
**Author:** ![laigle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ce7236/32.png) [@laigle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/laigle)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/13 "2003-11-06T17:23:53Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by John Mace \* > \*\*It’s only [Nebraska and Maine.](http://www.s-t.com/daily/10-00/10-25-00/a05wn005.htm) \*\* Sigh. I knew the electoral college sucked, but jeebus. No wonder we can only get political problems in California, Florida, and Texas addressed. ---
**Author:** ![plnnr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@plnnr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/plnnr)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/14 "2003-11-06T18:12:06Z")
That blue Tennessee must have stuck in Gore’s craw like a piece of broken glass. That’s got to hurt - not carrying your home state in an election that close. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/15 "2003-11-06T18:33:11Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by plnnr \* > \*\*That blue Tennessee must have stuck in Gore’s craw like a piece of broken glass. That’s got to hurt - not carrying your home state in an election that close. \*\* I like your broken glass analogy, but by “craw”, do you mean “ass”?🙂 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/16 "2003-11-06T18:53:20Z")
Naw, during the campaign, the GOP tried to make it clear that Gore grew up in, and was a creature of, Washington, not Tennesee. He did, in fact, carry DC handily. The rest of the discussion is illusory - voting margins are just too variable, and too dependent on transitory or local phenomena, to say that one election’s results can predict another’s four years later. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/17 "2003-11-06T18:59:24Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by IzzyR \* > \*\*It is a huge mistake to look at these maps and do state-by-state analysis. A rising tide lifts all boats, and an ebbing one drops them all. If Bush does well with the country as a whole, it will be reflected in the individual polls of numerous states - states that were solidly Democratic will become competitive, states that were competitive will become wins etc. Conversely if the Democrats do well on a national level. This is how the election gets won and lost, not by focusing on winning this or that state. Oh, **Izzy** , you’re such a kidder. Is your memory really that short?? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/18 "2003-11-06T19:10:37Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by ElvisL1ves \* > Naw, during the campaign, the GOP tried to make it clear that Gore grew up in, and was a creature of, Washington, not Tennesee. He did, in fact, carry DC handily. You’re kidding, right? Gore was just fine and dandy with losing his home state since he carried DC (that traditional GOP stronghold) with it’s whopping 3 electoral votes? Is there any Democratic loss that isn’t attributable to eeeevil Republicans spreading misinformation? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/19 "2003-11-06T19:42:11Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by ElvisL1ves \* > The rest of the discussion is illusory - voting margins are just too variable, and too dependent on transitory or local phenomena, to say that one election’s results can predict another’s four years later. I’d disagree. While I think that in an election that is won by several percentage points in the popular vote, **Izzy** ’s right, I also think that the 2000 map is a good reflection of where we’ve arrived at in an election that comes down to the wire: an almost solidly Republican South, an almost solidly Democratic Northeast and West Coast, the Plains and Rockies leaning strongly GOP, the Midwest leaning Dem. Every state that Gore won in 2000 had been in the Clinton/Gore column in '92 and '96 as well. I’ll bet on this proposition, if anyone’s interested: if the two major candidates are within 2% of each other in the 2004 popular vote, at least 40 of the 50 states will vote the way they did in 2000. But if we Dems are going to choose a candidate based on electoral maps, there’s just one obvious choice, and it isn’t John Edwards. It’s Dick Gephardt. First of all, Gephardt represents Missouri, a swing state. (The big MO went Bush in 2000, but voted Clinton in '92 and ‘96.) Second, Gephardt plays well in the Rust Belt, which has most of each side’s shakiest states. If the Dems want to regain Ohio and WV, which Clinton won twice, have a shot in Indiana, and hold states like Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, then Gephardt’s the man. If Gephardt were to run roughly even with Bush, the 2004 electoral map would break rather strongly the Democrats’ way, giving them the edge in states totalling ~300 electoral votes, _without any assumption of their winning a single Southern, Plains, or Rocky Mountain state_. The ‘if’ is the key question, of course. But it sure would be comforting to know that the possession arrow would be pointing our way in a jump-ball situation, so to speak. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2003, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620/20 "2003-11-06T19:43:23Z")
I’m more amused by the fact that on the 2000 electoral map Florida is not colored and has a big ‘?’ on it. Now that’s comedy. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/discuss-this-interactive-electoral-map-and-implications-for-04-presidential-race/211620.md?page=2)