Discussion thread for the Hamas Attacks Israel thread, October 2023

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
3255

I said no such thing.

Take it up with him, because that’s what he told The Guardian happened.

Nevertheless, you are not on the ground there. That means you’re getting a filtered view.

Haaretz is the only Israeli one I read.

I’m sure Yael Ayalon doesn’t agree…

Again, that’s just social media posts, not activism. I see nothing about him being a member of any activist orgs.

I prefer looking at actions rather than words. And the actions here were to first fire him, then (later) lock him up, and only then release him (with a treason charge still hanging over him, it seems).

3256

Then your posts are not the ones that gave me the feeling I was talking about there, are they?

With that being the case, perhaps I shouldn’t have brought it up to begin with. Mea culpa.

3257

Then your replying directly to me was a non sequitur, was it? You want to make a point about people posting about genocide, take it up with them, don’t use replies to me to do it.

3258

That is a fair and valid criticism.

3259

I’m not gonna argue with you that the right wing (and especially the religious zealots) hasn’t gotten its claws far too deeply into Israeli society, and that’s true to a greater or lesser extent at every level, in every part of the country, at every institution.

The point I have been making is that thanks to the very difficult work done by the Israeli left (and in recent times when the right has been especially brazen, by the Israeli center as well), work that continues to be done every day, the far right has not gotten to the point where the Ben Gvirs and the Smotriches can have their way with Gaza.

That doesn’t mean the far right can’t cause serious damage on a daily basis. It can, and it does. And even the rhetoric is damaging - when these people had no parliamentary power whatsoever*, this sort of rhetoric got a prime minister killed.

In the post that started all this, you said:

I took that as basically saying “The far right controls the military which means that they are capable of leading it in genociding the Gazans in preparation for annexation”, and that’s what I have been arguing against.

If the point you were making was closer to “far from being a marginal force, the far right in Israel does wield influence, which it uses to do serious damage” - then I agree.

The far right causes enormouse damage. It has now come out that on Oct 7, 100 soldiers from the Gaza border were moved to the West Bank to deal with a flashpoint. What was the issue? A piece of shit settler built a sukkah in Huwara, a Palestinian town in the West Bank. That is just one of dozens of ways in which bad right wing policy is directly responsible for the disaster of Oct 7. If cancerous settler ideology had not infested the army, a handful of soldiers would have been sufficient to arrest the settlers and take them to a sukkah in Israeli prison.

3260

Well, then we can leave it at that. “Run by them” was hyperbole on my part, so we both are at fault here, I think.

3261

I appreciate that.

Look, we settled our differences through thoughtful discussion! At this rate we should have the whole conflict worked our by next weekend.

3262

So today I see that Netanyahu is outright rejecting a Palestinian state.

"Whoever is talking about the ‘day after Netanyahu’,” he said, “is essentially talking about the establishment of a Palestinian state with the Palestinian Authority

Most Israeli citizens are opposed to the establishment of a Palestinian state, he said, and he would always resist it.

All territory we evacuate, we get terror, terrible terror against us,” he said, citing Gaza, southern Lebanon and parts of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank). Therefore, “in any future arrangement, or in the absence of an arrangement,” he said, Israel must maintain “security control” of all territory west of the Jordan River — meaning, Israel, the West Bank and Gaza. “That is a vital condition"

So a Palestinian state is off the table. A single state, unless literally an Apartheid one is off the table (my words, but I’m pretty sure that’s fair). Do other options even exist?

3263

Yes - Bibi coming off the table.

Netanyahu doesn’t want to talk about “the day after Netanyahu” or even acknowledge that such a glorious day might ever come about? Good golly, I am shocked!

I’m not going to treat Netanyahu opposing a two state solution any more seriously than I treat Netanyahu supporting a two state solution. He does both, depending on what is convinient in the situation he is currently in and who he is talking to.

Here’s a tip. Whether Netanyahu tells you exactly what you want to hear, or whether he tells you exactly what you are afraid of - he is full of shit. He is not for a two state solution; he is not against a two state solution; he holds no real policy positions whatsoever (which is why he can flip flop between building coalitions with far right religious groups or centrists depending on how the wind blows).

3264

Another tip: when someone tells you they are a fascist, believe them. Believe them the first time.

3265

So, what’s the plan for getting rid of Netayahu? And in the mean time, how can you prevent him from making sure the war keeps going and stays “hot” (as distinct from a cold war.)?

3266

I get the need to dismiss Bibi. I feel exactly the same about Trump.

But like Trump, Bibi is there and so far doesn’t seem to be going anywhere.

3267

I don’t know of a time when Netanyahu told people “hey everyone, I am a fascist”.

He did show his fascism, specifically when he tried to destroy Israel’s court system to keep himself in power and out of prison. And when he propped up obvious fascists like Ben Gvir or Smotrich once it was clear he was going to lose the center. Which is why Israel erupted into massive protests against these actions (and why they ultimately failed).

Without elections, Benny Gantz could remove Bibi at literally any time.

Today’s Likud members are, to a man, spineless toadies, handpicked by Netanyahu based on two criteria and two criteria only:

  1. How well do they kiss Netanyahu’s ass?
  2. How likely are they to be a threat to Netanyahu’s ambitions in the future?

So those toadies are a lock for Netanyahu. And everyone knows that Ben Gvir and Smotrich’s far right nationalist parties are also created for the sole purpose of propping up Bibi. But literally everyone else - even Shas - should be easy enough for Gantz to turn when the moment is right.

So option 1, Benny Gantz leaves the Unity government and forms a new Unity government.

Option 2 is elections. Likud is projected to get absolutely slaughtered. So are the far right nationalist parties. Again, this most likely puts Gantz in power.

Getting rid of Bibi isn’t the problem. The problem, ironically enough, is the plan for the day after Bibi.

Israel’s political center has rallied around Benny Gantz, a man who had stood up tall and proclaimed, lously and proudly, “I am not Bibi Netanyahu”. And that’s great! I’m really glad you aren’t Bibi Netanyahu. We all need more people who aren’t Bibi in our lives. But where does Gantz actually stand on the important issues facing our country? Not with Bibi, that’s about all we know.

So the Center doesn’t really have a cohesive message beyond “we are not Bibi”, and maybe that’s even on purpose - they don’t want to turn off anti-Bibi voters who disagree on other issues, maybe. Whatever.

The Israeli Left has a similar issue. Basically, a bunch of infighting and lack of leadership or a unified message has really weakened parties like Labor. My sense is, they are starting to turn this around (at a certain point, your party gets so few ministers into office that it becomes difficult to keep infighting, eh? :rofl:) but I think they really need to rally and capitalize on Netanyahu’s “only I can prevent terrorism” lies being exposed.

3268

Well, that’s precisely Gantz’s job right now, isn’t it?

He is getting the same info from the IDF that Bibi is, and is there when Bibi delivers whatever instructions he delivers to the IDF (and he has input on what those instructions are, too).

Remember, Netanyahu is not “Commander in Chief” of the Armed Forces. That’s not how the IDF or the Israeli prime ministership work.

If he ever gets the sense that Bibi is having the IDF do things that are not about destroying Hamas or protecting Israel, but are about prolonging the war and securing Bibi’s position - it is his job - scratch that, his duty as an elected official and his responsibility as an Israeli - to leave the Unity Government, denounce Bibi from the rooftops, and either take over the government or, if he is unable to rally the support he needs to do this, to topple the government and call for an election.

Anything short of this would be a monumental failure on Gantz’s part.

3269

In that case, let us help you. Since Bibi has told Biden to stuff it, I am all in favor of the US telling Israel that there is no more aid, and no more carrier off the coast until there is a change in policy and/or a change in government.

You and others here keep on saying that Bibi and a small group of hardliners are the problem. Let’s fix that problem right now.

3270

Needs a catchier slogan. “From the Med to the Dead…” No, no, that’s not it, I’m sure something will come to me…

3271

It’s funny, because when I read that I thought “boy, that sounds a lot like…”

Just because we must all repeat this affirmation every 12th post:
I completely support Israel’s right to defend itself and go after Hamas,

That said, I really think this ends badly for Israel. I’ve watched a number of my friends turn much more… sour on the subject of non-Jews, Gaza, and the West Bank.

I understand the seething anger. I saw it here in 2001. But my luxury of distance means I also see what’s happening with clear eyes.

3272

That’s up to you.

Look, the $2-3 billion the US provides Israel in aid is not existential. Israel’s defence budget is like $25 billion. So if your goal here is to say “we are cutting off aid! You cannot exist without us and will have no choice but to do what we say!” - then you are vastly overestimating how important that US aid is.

Keep in mind that the aid also comes in the form of what are essentially vouchers for use purchasing from American military manufacturers. So really, you’d be cutting a $2 billion subsidy to the Military-Industrial complex. Maybe that’s something you think the US already spends too much on, in which case, great! But just recognize that this is the main impact of cutting aid.

Now, would it be effective? We have already established that it isn’t an existential matter, but it is still a significant chunk of change. Would cutting it put pressure on Israel to do whatever you said? Or, would it smash up one of the levers you do have for influencing Israeli action, and lead Israel to disregard American suggestions even more?

As far as removing the American carrier - now hold on, are you counting the Red Sea operations too? Because I’m pretty sure America is acting to protect Red Sea shipping mostly for American interests, not Israeli ones. Is America just gonna accept 20% higher shipping costs as everyone routes around Africa in order to spite Israel?

But fine, the Mediterranean ships. So you withdraw them and one of two things happens:

  1. nothing
  2. Hezbollah is emboldened by this and opens a second front from Lebanon, leading to a bunch of initial damage and casualties on the Israeli side followed by lots and lots and lots of damage and casualties in Lebanon.

How exactly does either scenario serve American interests?

3273

Anyone who opposes a two state solution is an enemy of peace.

3274

That’s not required. Netanyahu and the military industrial complex have similar goals and will work in unision to keep each other in power.