# Do covid precautions work? (NYT article re Omicron) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 9, 2022, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752 "2022-03-09T15:10:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2022, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/21 "2022-03-09T18:29:35Z")
> [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](#): > > The following link is to an article in today’s NYT, but I’ve linked to another source which does not appear to be paywalled. > > [Do Covid Precautions Work? – The New York Times - Teazilla](https://teazilla.com/do-covid-precautions-work-the-new-york-times/) > > The basic gist is that it appears that social distancing type precautions (masks, social distancing, crowd limits etc.) have a very limited effect if any at all. > > The theory suggested is that although the precautions lessen the likelihood of covid transmittal in _any given single encounter_ , the pervasiveness and contageousness of covid is such that ultimately everyone has a very high chance of getting it anyway, so _in large picture_ the measures didn’t work. As many have already stated, is also an opinion piece based on comparing cases in red vs blue counties during the most recent covid wave. It provided some vague information like, restaurant patronage is still low in blue counties. That’s it. It is not the results of a scientific study. It does not answer the questions, “do covid precautions work?” ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2022, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/22 "2022-03-09T18:46:51Z")
I’ve updated the title of the thread. I think it’s relevant that it’s about the omicron surge only, and I gave the source. I got the same thing emailed to me from the NYT today. Honestly, the NYT has been sloppy about distinguishing between news and opinion, and while this article reaches a conclusion (and so is technically an opinion) I think the NYT is presenting it as “research”, and it’s fine to refer to it as an article. It’s not a letter to the editor, and I don’t think it’s an editorial or an op-ed piece. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2022, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/23 "2022-03-09T19:26:17Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > One study is not a final word, as others noted more research is needed, but previous ones point at masks to be better than the 10% effectiveness claimed in the OP study. I’ve seen that study referenced before and it is important to point out that it has some severe limitiations, not least of which (from the article itself) > this study did not account for other preventive behaviors that could influence risk for acquiring infection, including adherence to physical distancing recommendations That alone means that the figures quoted should be taken with a huge pinch of salt. ---
**Author:** ![SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e19adc/32.png) [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpacemanSpiff_II)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2022, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/24 "2022-03-09T19:45:30Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > I’ve seen that study referenced before and it is important to point out that it has some severe limitiations, not least of which (from the article itself) > > > this study did not account for other preventive behaviors that could influence risk for acquiring infection, including adherence to physical distancing recommendations > > That alone means that the figures quoted should be taken with a huge pinch of salt. That’s significant in the context of a study of masks, but not in the context of the NYT article and this thread, since those were about the combined impact of masks plus “other preventive behaviors that could influence risk for acquiring infection, including adherence to physical distancing recommendations”. The most significant limitation of that study in our context is probably that it predated Omicron. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2022, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/25 "2022-03-09T22:30:42Z")
> [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](#): > > That’s significant in the context of a study of masks, but not in the context of the NYT article and this thread In a thread about covid precautions I think it is relevant to discuss covid precautions and what we know and can show about their effectiveness. The thread may start with the article but it does not end there. If the OP wanted to limit discussion purely to the article then they were free to do so. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2022, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/26 "2022-03-09T23:27:53Z")
…here is a take-down of just **one** part of that article. [https://twitter.com/lmlauramarsh/status/1501583739188559875](https://twitter.com/lmlauramarsh/status/1501583739188559875) That article is sloppy, it’s badly cited, it relies on cherry-picked evidence. David Leonhardt is part of the “urgency of normal” cult, and everything he writes needs to be viewed through that lens. ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2022, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/27 "2022-03-09T23:42:51Z")
> [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](#): > > The basic gist is that it appears that social distancing type precautions (masks, social distancing, crowd limits etc.) have a very limited effect if any at all. > > The theory suggested is that although the precautions lessen the likelihood of covid transmittal in _any given single encounter_ , the pervasiveness and contageousness of covid is such that ultimately everyone has a very high chance of getting it anyway, so _in large picture_ the measures didn’t work. Maybe it’s just me, but this sounds like it could be summarised as ‘statistics don’t work at large scales’. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2022, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/28 "2022-03-09T23:51:52Z")
No, I don’t think that’s the right interpretation. The analogy in the article is decent, although simplified to emphasize the point – every time you enter a space with other people you are effectively rolling a die. And if that die has a million sides, it matters if you reduce it from 3 sides that say “catch covid” to 2 sides. But if the die has only 20 sides, it doesn’t matter much if you reduce it from 3 sides to 2, unless you almost never roll that die. Omicron greatly reduced the number of sides on the die. Even if you buy the analogy, precautions probably matter for people who have little external contact and are very careful. But it’s plausible that if you go out a lot and wear a mediocre mask, even if the mask makes a difference in your risk for each encounter, it won’t make a significant difference in your overall risk. ---
**Author:** ![Esprise\_Me](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/esprise_me/32/2947_2.png) [@Esprise\_Me](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Esprise_Me)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2022, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/29 "2022-03-10T04:54:28Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > Non-pharmaceutical precautions work, but they largely work to delay infection. That can be worth it if you’re delaying until vaccines or better treatments are readily available, or if you’re delaying to flatten a spike that will overwhelm hospitals or other services. But long-term they likely have little value for most people compared to the cost. Agreed, though there are other situations where a delay might be important, and it’s worth knowing how much precautions would help in that situation. I’m a healthy, vaccinated woman in my late 30s. I feel very good about my chances of avoiding death or severe disease, but less confident about my chances of avoiding infection altogether. I’m planning an international dive trip next month that I’ve been looking forward to for a long time. If masks etc. can improve the odds of me not testing positive until after I return, that’s a good reason for me to use them. If I were instead visiting elderly or immunocompromised relatives, that would also be a reason to try to avoid getting sick right before the trip. If I had a big trial coming up that I didn’t want to get a continuance on because the delay would hurt my client, that might be a reason to go the extra mile. Many times in my life I’ve skipped the placebo week on my birth control pills to avoid getting my period at an inconvenient time. It hardly seems crazy to temporarily do some annoying things like wear a mask to postpone getting sick, even if you know you’re only prolonging the inevitable. ---
**Author:** ![SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e19adc/32.png) [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpacemanSpiff_II)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2022, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/30 "2022-03-10T14:47:33Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > …here is a take-down of just **one** part of that article. > > [https://twitter.com/lmlauramarsh/status/1501583739188559875](https://twitter.com/lmlauramarsh/status/1501583739188559875) That’s a bogus “takedown”. This Laura Marsh suggests that the basis for the supposed surge in traffic fatalities is not “_a study or any kind of data set_” but rather the opinion of some professor of psychology. This is untrue. The assertion was based on “_Per capita vehicle deaths rose 17.5 percent from the summer of 2019 to last summer, according to a Times analysis of federal data. It is the largest two-year increase since just after World War II._” Non-paywalled link to the NYT article she refers to: [Vehicle Crashes, Surging - One2Seek](https://one2seek.com/vehicle-crashes-surging-28518.html) It’s true that there’s nothing to suggest that the increase is related to aggressive driving other than it being a plausible explanation, but it’s a plausible explanation for something that clearly exists and requires some sort of explanation. > [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > David Leonhardt is part of the “urgency of normal” cult, and everything he writes needs to be viewed through that lens. I get daily articles from the NYT emailed to me, most of them written by David Leonhardt. The only way he can be called “_part of the “urgency of normal” cult_” is from a perspective which refuses to acknowledge that there is any cost at all to pandemic social distancing measures. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2022, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/31 "2022-03-10T15:36:09Z")
> [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](#): > > That’s a bogus “takedown”. …it’s a pretty good takedown, actually. Because: > [@](#): > > The assertion was based on “ _Per capita vehicle deaths rose 17.5 percent from the summer of 2019 to last summer, according to a Times analysis of federal data. It is the largest two-year increase since just after World War II._ ” > > Non-paywalled link to the NYT article she refers to: [Vehicle Crashes, Surging - One2Seek](https://one2seek.com/vehicle-crashes-surging-28518.html) > > It’s true that there’s nothing to suggest that the increase is related to aggressive driving other than it being a plausible explanation, but it’s a plausible explanation for something that clearly exists and requires some sort of explanation. What you **ignore** is that the cite was provided as an example of the **disruption caused by social distancing.** > [@NYT](#): > > . Social distancing leads to the isolation and disruption that have fed so many problems over the past two years — mental health troubles, elevated blood pressure, [drug overdoses](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/17/health/drug-overdoses-fentanyl-deaths.html), [violent crime](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/18/briefing/crime-surge-homicides-us.html), [vehicle crashes](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/15/briefing/vehicle-crashes-deaths-pandemic.html) and more. That was a very specific claim. The very fact that you concede that it requires more examination should tell you that the original article didn’t actually demonstrate that social distancing caused an increase in vehicle crashes. > [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](#): > > I get daily articles from the NYT emailed to me, most of them written by David Leonhardt. The only way he can be called “ _part of the “urgency of normal” cult_ ” is from a perspective which refuses to acknowledge that there is any cost at all to pandemic social distancing measures. Perhaps instead of reading daily articles the NYT emailed to you, most of them written by David Leonhardt, you should be reading more stuff like this instead. > **[There Is Nothing Normal about One Million People Dead from COVID](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/there-is-nothing-normal-about-one-million-people-dead-from-covid1/)** > > Mass media and policy makers are pushing for a return to pre-COVID times while trying to normalize a staggering death toll Or this. > **[How Did This Many Deaths Become Normal?](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/03/covid-us-death-rate/626972/)** > > The U.S. is nearing 1 million recorded COVID-19 deaths without the social reckoning that such a tragedy should provoke. Why? There is a **cost** to pretending that everything is normal. And that cost is far greater than social distancing or masking will ever be. ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2022, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/32 "2022-03-10T15:46:38Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > There is a **cost** to pretending that everything is normal. And that cost is far greater than social distancing or masking will ever be. I’m starting to look at these deaths similar to deaths from lifestyle choices like smoking, poor diet, inactivity, etc. If someone chooses to not be vaccinated, go to crowded locations, go around unmaskless, etc., then they are voluntarily taking on a higher risk of catching COVID. I’m less likely to support community restrictions to protect people who aren’t making the effort to protect themselves. At this point there are many options for someone to protect themselves, such as vaccines, plentiful N95 masks, curbside/delivery options, and work-at-home jobs are becoming more common. People have a lot of control over how much risk they expose themselves too. Certainly not everyone who catches COVID was being lax with precautions, but a great majority of the people now catching COVID are catching it from their lifestyle choices rather than things outside their control. Like, it’s sad if a smoker dies of cancer, but in the end that person made the tradeoff of enjoying smoking vs a longer life. I’m seeing COVID deaths the same way. The person made the choice to enjoy going on with their life vs. staying safer. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2022, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/33 "2022-03-10T16:43:42Z")
So, you aren’t in favor of mask mandates, but you think everyone ought to be choosing to wear an n95 mask? Am I understanding your post correctly? ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2022, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/34 "2022-03-10T16:55:03Z")
At this point, yes. Although I would phrase it as “Everyone who wants to be safe should wear a N95”. Mainly because mandates have been hugely controversial, and in some cases people have reacted violently. Compared to the actual benefit mandates bring, I don’t think mandates are worth the complications. Mask usage in the general public is so poor that whatever lab-based results masks have are not carried over in the general public. It’s not worth trying to enforce mandates where the general public goes around wearing droopy, fabric masks that hang below their mouth. If anyone is expecting that the community wearing bandannas and droopy procedure masks are keeping them safe, it’s a false sense of security. If a person wants to be safe, they should wear a N95 mask and wear it properly. It’s clear by now that the general community will not make the effort to keep others safe, so I don’t see the value in trying to have mandates that won’t produce results that outweigh their complications. ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2022, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/35 "2022-03-10T17:44:07Z")
> [@filmore](#): > > If a person wants to be safe, they should wear a N95 mask and wear it properly. But if you’re saying this, you’re saying that if a person wants to be safe, they should never go to a restaurant, bar, private party, or any other place where they’d be eating or drinking around other people (since they’d have to take their mask off to do so). That’s a sacrifice that plenty of people are understandably unwilling to make. ---
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2022, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/36 "2022-03-10T17:59:31Z")
What it did do it delay the spread and also ‘flatten the curve’. While it might be said that COVID is so contagious it’s not a question of if but when, that when is very important for 2 reasons which these precautions appeared to prove out. 1: Preserve the health care system from overloading and breaking. While there were a few cases of this happening and it was stressed at many placed, our healthcare system basically remained intact. If heath care breaks nothing can be expected to be treated covid or otherwise. 2: Slow the spread to allow more effective treatments to come about. Something as simple as having a patient not lie on their back came out months after COVID hit US soil. We need time to figure out treatments and develop medication and someone is in much better shape developing COVID today than in the beginning. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2022, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/37 "2022-03-10T23:39:29Z")
> [@Thudlow\_Boink](#): > > you’re saying that if a person wants to be safe, they should never go to a restaurant, bar, private party, or any other place where they’d be eating or drinking around other people I’m pretty much in that spot, honestly. I have gone to a couple of private parties, and might continue going to private events where i am comfortable with the other people. But i haven’t been to a bar or restaurant or other public place where there’s food or drink involved in two years, and I’m not feeling ready to go back, either. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2022, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/38 "2022-03-10T23:41:50Z")
> [@kanicbird](#): > > Something as simple as having a patient not lie on their back came out months after COVID hit US soil. That was published by March, two years ago, because i had a respiratory bug then, and i was careful about proning myself during the worst of it. That’s technically after covid “hit US soil”, but before it took off, here, and before we were trying to flatten the curve. ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/39 "2022-03-11T16:40:03Z")
> [@SpacemanSpiff\_II](#): > > the pervasiveness and contageousness of covid is such that ultimately everyone has a very high chance of getting it anyway As the son of someone who had to wait far too long to even be seen for a heart attack, let alone treated, at a hospital overwhelmed with respiratory infections, I appreciate the difference between “ultimately” and some shorter time frame. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752/40 "2022-03-11T17:47:58Z")
Everyone, the article is an Op-Ed with some random data thrown in to try to make a point. He looked at the following: 1. Compared indoor dining, using Opentable of “liberal” cities to cities that are not liberal (like Austin, Nashville, and Charlotte, LOL) in Feb. You know, when the surge was dying down. That’s always the best time to look. Even worse, he doesn’t bother to show us the data. 2. Uses Economic Insights to say that “liberal states” spent more time at home than conservative. I’m looking at the data right now and I challenge that assertion. 3. Democratic schools sent their students home more often. Okay. 4. Liberals wear masks more. Okay. Then he’s _surprised_ that he doesn’t see a big trend in cases but he does admit that “liberal” places tended to have less cases per capita. He also admits that liberals may be more likely to get tested and the the positivity rates are usually higher in conservative regions. Then he looks at the huge differences in death rates and jumps to the conclusion that it’s due to vaccines. Well, guess what? If conservatives are less likely to test at all, then we don’t see anything until they go to the ICU or die. At least he admits that covid precautions do work on an individual basis. However, he jumps to conclusions when he says they don’t work on a global scale because he really didn’t do the analysis or show us exactly what he did. He would have to prove to us that covid precautions, that have been studied and shown to work, suddenly didn’t work for Omicron. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-covid-precautions-work-nyt-article-re-omicron/960752.md?page=3)