# Do doctors really provide estimated death times to those who are terminally ill? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 13, 2016, 10:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799 "2016-07-13T10:37:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![joyfool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/df788c/32.png) [@joyfool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joyfool)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/41 "2016-07-14T02:51:33Z")
I’m the person that brought up palliative care and I just want to clarify again that I thought she was wonderful. Truly, the most accurate accounting of my husband’s life expectancy that we were given. As to the other item mentioned by **QtM** about general guidelines, I agree. For example, I have a dear friend whose spouse is in their final stage, and they’ve both done the same thing. Understandably, they happily went on about beating the only one year deadline. However, it was more like what was described than any hard and fast “you’ll be dead before Christmas” prognosis. And I don’t think it’s fair when people paint the doctors out to be villains or idiots when they do that. In our case, I was frustrated because no one explained how dire and immediate it was. Conflicting opinions didn’t help any either. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![drewder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/57b2e6/32.png) [@drewder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewder)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/42 "2016-07-14T03:54:06Z")
The question is can you sue if you live significantly longer than the doctor predicts. I’d hate to sell my house and max out all my credit cards only to find I’ve got another 20 years to live… ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/43 "2016-07-14T04:55:31Z")
It would not surprise me if a number of HIV sufferers were in hospice and very near the end when some of the more effective drugs came out and put their infections into remission, resulting in some unusual situations. Among them, [viatical settlements](http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/viatical+settlement) where people used their life insurance policies to get immediate money for medical care. If the person who did that has a sudden recovery and lives another 20 years it can have very serious financial repercussions for the party that is now the beneficiary. I doubt viatical settlements for people with HIV infections are as easy to obtain as they once were. I don’t think you can sue a doctor for living past the date he or she estimates you will die, though. ---
**Author:** ![usedtobe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ec9cab/32.png) [@usedtobe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/usedtobe)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/44 "2016-07-14T05:13:27Z")
The CA media made a huge story of a 29 yr old who went to OR to die under OR’s “Death with Dignity” law (fatal dosage of barbiturate). Now CA has a law enabling MD’s to prescribe such dosages, but only if the patient "has less than 6 months to live, as certified by (2? 3?) doctors unrelated to each other. Can’t be from same clinic is how I read it. My PCP is not thrilled and is reluctant to participate. I’m not certain which side of that prescription pad I’d rather be, myself. The law does raise the issue: Who is going to be the one certifying “6 months or less”? And: patient is in extreme pain and is absolutely miserable. But: her disease progression is absolute text-book typical. She has 8.5 months to go. Who is going to tell her she has to suffer another 2.5 months before she can die legally? Again, on which side of that pad would you prefer to be? ---
**Author:** ![Beelzebubba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Beelzebubba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beelzebubba)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/45 "2016-07-14T05:49:48Z")
I found my grandmother lying on the floor, almost unconscious after vomiting blood, on Thanksgiving Day 2011. She was admitted to the hospital immediately and the following day we knew she had a tumor in her stomach. On the next day, an oncologist met with us to tell us that is was stomach cancer. She was very kind and compassionate and discussed the potential options (chemotherapy and radiation). Because my grandmother was 86 and had severe COPD and crippling rheumatoid arthritis, surgery wasn’t an option. She was also very honest about the odds of chemo or radiation working, which were very low. She also discussed the diminished quality of life for my grandmother’s remaining days if she chose one of the treatment options (she was basically saying that my grandmother might live a little bit longer but it would only prolong her suffering and rob her of any good days she might have left). My grandmother asked her very directly, “If you were in my situation, what would you do?” To which the oncologist said, “I would go home and enjoy the time I had left with my family”. When prodded for an estimate of how long she would live, the doctor said that most people in her condition and with her diagnosis lived about 8-12 weeks. My sister and I moved in with her when he brought her home from the hospital. We had 11-weeks and 4-days with her and all but the last week was very good. She didn’t suffer nearly as much as we had been told to expect (by a hospice nurse) and we enjoyed our time together very much. I’m very thankful that the oncologist was honest with us about how much time she had left. If I had a terminal illness, I’d certainly want to know how long I could expect (or hope) to live. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2016, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/46 "2016-07-14T14:15:13Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > The way they usually do it (at least these days) is to say “someone with your condition typically lives X months” or whatever time unit. At which point the patient or family may or may not continue to listen and hear any qualifications that may or may not be added (except you have additional condition Y so you might have less time or you’re unusually young and fit so you _might_ have a little more time, something like that). It’s not really saying that YOU have exactly that much life left, just that statistically speaking that’s the norm. Not that the average person really understands statistics. > > (post shortened) > > As I said in another thread, it’s a best guess. It’s an educated guess, but not more than that. > [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](#): > > (post shortened) Each oncologist told her the basics, the straight facts, and the predicted survival rates for her situation. None of them gave her “6 months to live”, etc. but they let her know what her chances were. Openly, straightforwardly, and in basic language. > > After each appointment, she reported to her friends and others that the docs had said she’d “be dead in 6 months”. Despite them taking pains to say it was possible for her to live over a year or more. At 6 months, she held a party, loudly declaiming that her doctors knew nothing because they all said she’d be dead, yet she was still alive. Her friends ate that up, and repeated her tales to all and sundry. And we even have people in this thread who claim that the doctor “told” them how long they were going to live. Fighting ignorance is so frustrating. > [@eclectic wench](#): > > Well, yeah. Of course most of the stories in this thread are going to be second-hand. It’s kind of the nature of the beast: people who have been given a terminal diagnosis are a lot less likely to be alive to tell the story. I was on of the primary decision makers in three cases where we had to discuss the patients’ conditions and they could not participate. First was my grandmother who had had a massive stroke. The second was my father who had leukemia and the third was my infant son. When my father had cancer, he and my mother were making the decisions, but as things got worse there was an episode when he was delusional and could not participate. While my mother could have made the decision on her own she asked for my participation. The oncologist was quite frank and carefully explain what the prognosis was. He gave rough estimates of survival odds and expected lengths of time for each of the options. As **Broomstick** said, it was pretty much “this is what we could expect.” I agree that most people don’t understand statistics. Also, most people aren’t really good at listening when they are the ones facing death. The last case was with my son, and as a newborn, he wasn’t going to be making any decisions. Again, the doctors were open and carefully answered all of our questions. However, because the condition was diagnosed during the pregnancy and we had to make decisions before the actual birth, the discussion occurred before the doctors were able to actually directly examine our baby. During our conference with our primary physician and two specialists, my wife focused on their exact words while I was more concerned with their body language. We came away with different impressions. My wife though there may be more time while I thought that the doctors were more pessimistic. It did turn out that he only had a few hours to be with us. So yes, there can be direct accounts. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/47 "2016-07-15T00:56:30Z")
One of my girlfriends passed away several years ago from breast cancer. When she was diagnosed, she was stage 4, so they knew she was likely to die of it - and within a few years. Chemo kept her going for two years, and one year in July it was getting bad, had spread to her brain, and her doctor said “investing in green bananas, probably fine - investing in a calendar that starts in January of next year - probably too optimistic.” She scheduled her own “pre-memorial” and we all came to say goodbye and celebrate her life while she was still present. She died about six weeks after that oncologist appointment, about three weeks after her premorial. ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/48 "2016-07-15T01:27:11Z")
Oncologist told a friend of mine that “every patient we’ve had with this was over 90 at diagnosis” … and also “every patient we’ve had with was dead within three years”. He’s still going 15 years later, but at age 60 that’s not totally unexpected. ---
**Author:** ![Cazzle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cazzle/32/75_2.png) [@Cazzle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cazzle)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/49 "2016-07-15T01:45:15Z")
From the blog of an acquaintance diagnosed with terminal oesophageal cancer: “…was given mere months to live if he didn’t start Chemotherapy (Chemo being the only option offered given the late stage of the disease) treatment immediately and only 15 months tops with treatment.” Very similar to accounts I’ve heard from other people, that they were given two timelines: with and without treatment. Whether that’s what the doctor said or just what they heard is a matter for debate. ---
**Author:** ![Shamozzle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shamozzle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shamozzle)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/50 "2016-07-15T02:24:10Z")
My Mom had pain in her arm so we went and got some X-rays. “Hmmm, that’s odd. Let me run this by Dr. ABC.” Dr. ABC showed up, looked at the X-rays, examined my Mom, talked to her, checked over her medical history. Took him about 10 minutes. He wasn’t smiling. I pulled him aside, “Give it to me straight, I can take it.” He looked at me evenly. No emotion, just the level certainty of someone who had been around the block 25 times. He projected the complete, humble, perfectly-matter-of-fact confidence of an old pro and I knew this was a man who knew what he was talking about. “Six months.” She was dead in four. ---
**Author:** ![Arcite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/67e7ee/32.png) [@Arcite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Arcite)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/51 "2016-07-15T04:21:07Z")
Obligatory joke: Doctor: I’m afraid I have some bad news. Your condition is terminal and there’s no cure. Patient: Oh my God! How long do I have to live, doc? Doctor: Ten. Patient: Ten what? Years? Months? Weeks? Doctor: Nine… ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/52 "2016-07-15T04:41:31Z")
> [@ivylass](#): > > Is it more accurate the closer to the end? It’s more accurate for things for which there is more data, but that is true of any correctly-calculated statistic. But it is a statistical accuracy: two statistical distributions can have the same average with widely different spreads. Most people don’t understand statistics at all; they tend to think that “the average” is “the only possible value”. All those people who think they “beat the stat”? They don’t understand it at all. An example that people usually get: the average age of Americans does not equal the age of every person in the US. The data I’ve normally been given includes median (average life expectancy) and some values for “% of patients who survive after x time”. The people who “beat the stat” are part of that survival %, they’re as much part of the stat as those who die the next day (and who may even die of unrelated causes: being sick doesn’t make you immune to car crashes, nor cancer immune to heart attacks). One of the problems with rare illnesses is the lack of information, not just treatment: neither patients nor families know what to expect. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/53 "2016-07-15T15:15:10Z")
Yesterday hospice nurse said my MIL has 1-2 weeks. I’ll keep you posted. ---
**Author:** ![ivylass](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/9de053/32.png) [@ivylass](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivylass)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/54 "2016-07-15T15:41:04Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Yesterday hospice nurse said my MIL has 1-2 weeks. I’ll keep you posted. How’s the SIL handling it? ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/55 "2016-07-15T16:19:25Z")
It’s my understanding that doctors tend to give conservative estimates of how long a patient they’re treating has. Reason being that if they’re optimistic and the patient doesn’t last that long, then the relatives could blame them for failing to treat the patient properly. While if they’re conservative about it, then it’s easier to be a success if you beat the suggested likely outcome. Anyway, looking at the lighter side of this morbid topic, from the Onion: [Doctors Give Area Man Six Months To Pay](http://www.theonion.com/article/doctors-give-area-man-six-months-to-pay-1596) > [@](#): > > CARBONDALE, IL—Doctors at Southern Illinois Hospital confirmed Monday that Dale Monfort, a 39-year-old lymphatic-cancer sufferer who underwent emergency surgery last week, has just six months to pay. > > “Breaking that kind of news to a patient is never easy,” said Dr. Albert Sutin, who performed the six-hour, $30,840 procedure to remove a malignant mass in one of Monfort’s lymph nodes. “To look a man in the face and tell him he’s got, at the very most, half a year to get his affairs in order, well, it’s one of the toughest things a doctor has to do.” ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/56 "2016-07-15T16:22:40Z")
> [@Arcite](#): > > Obligatory joke: > > Doctor: I’m afraid I have some bad news. Your condition is terminal and there’s no cure. > Patient: Oh my God! How long do I have to live, doc? > Doctor: Ten. > Patient: Ten what? Years? Months? Weeks? > Doctor: Nine… I once saw a list of actuary jokes, if you could imagine such exist, and one went like this: Doctor: I’m afraid I have some bad news. You have only six months to live. Patient: What? Is there anything I can do? Doctor: only one thing. Marry an actuary. Patient: will that really make me live longer? Doctor: No. But it will _seem_ longer … ---
**Author:** ![Paxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/50afbb/32.png) [@Paxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paxx)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/57 "2016-07-15T16:40:08Z")
An excellent article by Stephen Jay Gould: [The Median Isn’t the Message](http://cancerguide.org/median_not_msg.html): > [@](#): > > In July 1982, I learned that I was suffering from abdominal mesothelioma, a rare and serious cancer usually associated with exposure to asbestos. When I revived after surgery, I asked my first question of my doctor and chemotherapist: “What is the best technical literature about mesothelioma?” She replied, with a touch of diplomacy (the only departure she has ever made from direct frankness), that the medical literature contained nothing really worth reading. > … > The literature couldn’t have been more brutally clear: mesothelioma is incurable, with a median mortality of only eight months after discovery. I sat stunned for about fifteen minutes, then smiled and said to myself: so that’s why they didn’t give me anything to read. Then my mind started to work again, thank goodness. > … > The problem may be briefly stated: What does “median mortality of eight months” signify in our vernacular? I suspect that most people, without training in statistics, would read such a statement as “I will probably be dead in eight months” - the very conclusion that must be avoided, since it isn’t so, and since attitude matters so much. ---
**Author:** ![Anny\_Middon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/bc79bd/32.png) [@Anny\_Middon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anny_Middon)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/58 "2016-07-15T16:42:22Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I once saw a list of actuary jokes, if you could imagine such exist, and one went like this: > > Doctor: I’m afraid I have some bad news. You have only six months to live. > Patient: What? Is there anything I can do? > Doctor: only one thing. Marry an actuary. > Patient: will that really make me live longer? > Doctor: No. But it will _seem_ longer … While we’re telling jokes: The doctor tells a woman she will be dead by morning. Woman tells her husband she wants to spend her last night on earth making love with him. Husband: I think I’ll pass. Wife: What do you mean? It seems like this is little enough to ask of you! Husband: That’s easy for you to say. You don’t have to get up in the morning. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/59 "2016-07-15T16:54:02Z")
Yes, they do. My cousin was recently given 3-6 months by his doctor. It’s been six months and he’s still doing fairly well, so it’s an educated guess, at best. ---
**Author:** ![RivkahChaya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rivkahchaya/32/8919_2.png) [@RivkahChaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RivkahChaya)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2016, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799/60 "2016-07-15T17:04:09Z")
When my father was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, he was told in terms of “people at this stage, with this type of cancer typically live…” and that’s exactly how long he lived. But at no point did that doctor say, “Your expiration date is xx/xx/xxxx.” I have known other people who were told “If you respond to this drug, your life expectancy may be 10 years, but if you don’t, we’ll try another drug, or you can choose non-treatment. Without treatment, people generally live about 18 months from your stage of diagnosis.” I too, hate those woo people who talk about someone being “given 6 months to live,” before he switched to the cabbage juice diet. Six months was an average, no doubt, that included plenty of outliers, and the person probably had conventional treatment prior to the woo. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-doctors-really-provide-estimated-death-times-to-those-who-are-terminally-ill/759799.md?page=4)