# Do mainstream economists in the US think a depression is looming? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 14, 2008, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-mainstream-economists-in-the-us-think-a-depression-is-looming/456513 "2008-07-14T23:00:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 4\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![elmwood](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmwood/32/3060_2.png) [@elmwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elmwood)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2008, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-mainstream-economists-in-the-us-think-a-depression-is-looming/456513/1 "2008-07-14T23:00:14Z")
I’d post this in GQ, but I don’t know if there’s a factual answer; the question is related to current events. I want to know if the majority view of regarded mainstream economists – not the fringe, not survivalists, not the talking heads in the media that delight in bad news, and not armchair economists on the SDMB or other online venues – is that an economic depression in the United States is looming. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2008, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-mainstream-economists-in-the-us-think-a-depression-is-looming/456513/2 "2008-07-14T23:02:29Z")
From wikipedia: > [@](#): > > Possibility of a 2008 recession in some countries > > ``` > Further information: Economic crisis of 2008 > > ``` > > Since 2007, there had been speculation of a possible recession starting in late 2007 or early 2008 in some countries. > > [edit] United States > > The United States housing market correction (a consequence of United States housing bubble) and subprime mortgage crisis had significantly contributed to anticipation of a possible recession. > > While some economists were confident about a recession[39], others were not as easily convinced.[40] While some believed that the current slowdown would at best be a mild and brief recession,[41] there was always an anticipation that the economy may start recovering in the later part of 2008.[42] > > The 2008 performance of the U.S. economy is difficult to predict due to the declining house prices and the subprime crisis, the full impact of which is still unclear. > > U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008, the most in five years, supporting the view that the U.S. may fall into a recession. The economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month predicted the GDP growth will slow to 0.1 percent in January to March. > > Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on April 6, 2008 that “There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession.” However Anatole Kaletsky has argued that recession unlikely if US economy gets through next two crucial months[43]. > > On April 29, 2008, several US states are declared by Moody’s to be in a recession, they are as follows: Rhode Island, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Tennessee, California, Nevada and Arizona. [44] > > The US Economy grew in the first quarter by 1%, [45] [46] meaning that the US does not meet the widely accepted definition of a recession. However some economists believe in a different definition of recession that suggests that the US is already in one.[47][48] Clear? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2008, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-mainstream-economists-in-the-us-think-a-depression-is-looming/456513/3 "2008-07-14T23:28:06Z")
Recession, maybe, but I haven’t read of any reasonably respectable economist predicting a depression. Given the tools the Fed and Congress have, that seems highly unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a587f6/32.png) [@Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freddy_the_Pig)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2008, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-mainstream-economists-in-the-us-think-a-depression-is-looming/456513/4 "2008-07-14T23:55:36Z")
Since economists have never defined a dividing line between recessions and depressions, I’d be surprised if any “mainstream economist” would make that call either way. To speak of a “depression” calls up images of the Great Depression, with 25% employment, a 25% decline in production over four years, a 90% decline in the stock market, and 30% price deflation. No mainstream economist is predicting a recession anywhere near that severe.