I’m in Delaware. We have Frozen ponds here already and it’s not even at peak coldness for the year. That’s close to NJ. There should be some somewhere over there.
Note that icebreakers operate on the St. Lawrence, so its navigable condition is not solely due to weather.
I have a friend in southeastern Tennesssee whose pond freezes over at least some of the time during most winters. And I seriously doubt that’s the southernmost limit of US pond ice.
It seems borderline bizarre that anyone would find the idea “ponds in the northern US don’t freeze” remotely plausible.
My brother who lives in NJ told me some ponds in NJ no longer freeze. I guess maybe he was simply wrong or got bad info from somebody. So that is why I asked a simple question. I did not mean to ask about places like Minnesota, Maine, etc. so I should have been more specific that I was asking about NJ and places near there .
We were in NJ on Valentines Day a few years ago, they had all these horrible warnings about a massive snowstorm - turned out to be a dud. Maybe 6 inches of snow; by non the next day, any of the ploughed roads and parking lots were wet because the temperature was above freezing.
In that kind of weather below and above freezing on and off, maybe ponds would get an ice coating but I would avoid walking on any pond more than a foot deep. OTOH, I remember trying to watch the Macy’s parade in NYC (2000, I think?) when it was 15ºF and a wicked north wind. Weather happens.
It can also depend on the pond; and on what’s meant by “freeze”. A pond with active water movement in it – one fed by an active stream or spring – will take a whole lot longer to freeze solid than one that’s just a low spot in the ground filled by excess ground water runoff whenever the weather’s wet enough, but with very little water movement in dry weather or when the ground’s frozen. So some ponds in an area might freeze, while others don’t, under the same weather conditions.
And if what’s meant by “freeze” isn’t just “has some ice around the edges and a thin cover over the middle on cold days” but is “freezes hard enough to safely skate on”: then ponds with active water movement may well not freeze hard enough for safe skating in most winters, even if ponds with still water do; and/or a given pond may appear frozen to somebody who just glances at it, but may not be frozen by the standards of somebody who’s thinking of skating or walking on it – especially since a warm day or two may be enough to produce open water.
I’m from Minnesota - I know you’re only wondering about your area but any area is going vary from year to year. Sometimes ponds and lakes will be frozen solid by Xmas and still have ice on them in April. It depends a lot on when we get a lot of snow (which also varies from year to year). This year we had two storms that dumped a total of 2 ft of snow right before Thanksgiving. So now the ice has been insulated and hasn’t frozen as solid or thick as it usually does by this time of year. The weather is always a variable.
A quick reality check: The global warming ‘signal’ over the past 100 years is about .01 degrees per year. In the next 100 years it may be about .02 to .04 per year. Annual temperature variation is about 10x the size of that ‘signal’ on a globally averaged basis, and in your local area annual average temperature swings are maybe 1-3 degrees in any given year, or around 100X the global warming ‘signal’.
If you remember changes since 30 years ago, it’s most likely confirmation bias, because 30 years ago the average global temperature was only .2-.3 degrees lower. In your local area it may gave gone up or down in that time, regardless of global warming.
For example, here is 25 years of annual temperature data for Edmonton: Edmonton historical temps. If there’s a global warming signal in there, it would take a statistical analysis to find it. You certainly wouldn’t notice it personally.
Feel free to enter your own city and see what you get.
The average temperature in any given year or even decade is dominated by the state of shorter term events. Among them: El Niño/La Niña, The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, among many others.
Lest you think this is an argument against global warming, the last time I trotted it out was during the recent ‘hiatus’ that people were using to claim global warming was false. I pointed out that even under strong warming, any given year or even decade can be cooler than the last, and if there was no global warming at all you could still have a increasing average temperatures over a decade or more. So short-term weather is not an indicator of any long-term global phenomenon.
Locally, whatever weather you are experiencing will be dominated by local weather which is unpredictable and chaotic. Over a year or a decade, it will be dominated by the states of various shorter term weather oscillations.
Due to dredging, the construction of the Seaway, and the construction of artificial islands for Expo 67, the St. Lawrence river current is stronger near the harbor and thus rarely freezes. Right now - the Lake of Two Mountains (where the Ottawa river meets the St. Lawrence) is frozen over - but I wouldn’t take a chance on walking on it. But during normal winters, there is an ice road across it (Hudson to Oka) - duplicating the summer ferry route. (in early 2019, it was open for five weeks - and that was a short season)
Although this is true, there is still plenty of areas across the globe where climate change has been observable over a few decades. For instance many places skiing conditions have become too unreliable and/or the season too short to maintain long existing ski resorts. Because warming isn’t evenly distributed across geography and across the seasons, and because some weather is more sensitive to temperature change than others.
I’m not mentioning this to refute your point. That some personal observations can be “backed up” with statistics doesn’t mean personal observations in general are a good way to think about climate change. But neither is annual average temperature, even if that is a necessary statistical tool. Averages have changed more in some regions and more for the coldest and warmest months.
The old joke about statistics is that the average person has one breast and one testicle.
Along with the stories about ski hills, you can point to glacier trends all over the world to indicate that the weather is warming - whether it’s the peak of Kilimanjaro, glaciers in New Zealand, or North America, or the shrinking polar sea ice cap and the shrinking ice cover of Greenland - something is going on.