Where the hell are these rehabilitation figures coming from Sage Rat because they don’t even slightly resemble the figures that I encounter?
First, what do you mean by rehabilitation? That might sound obvious but it really is not.
Next, over what period of time is the measurement taken?
UK figures on reoffending and incarceration over 7 years are north of 70% and for those under 21 [what we descried as young offenders] that figure is in the 90% range.
Our figures can be massaged downward dramatically by looking at the 2 year or 12 month figures, and the reason that these figures are lower - especially the 12 month reoffending rates is that most offenders are on licence and frequently in hostels for the first 6 months to a year - which means any breaches such as failing to attend appointments will mean a recall back to prison without a further offence being committed - politicians tend to quote 12 month reoffending rates - it makes them look good.
These 12 monthly reoffending rates also count offenders who were unlikely to reoffend -such as fine defaulters, benefit fraudsters, serious traffic violations - these are generally individuals with prison terms less than 12 months and less, many never even having been awarded a prison term in the first place - its so obvious that this figure that you quote of 45% is so egregiously misleading as to be complete fantasy
I have just been part contributor to a paper which will be considered at certain levels on the way our future prisons should look as part of our ‘transforming rehabilitation’ program and this is something that took a deal of research
It is extremely difficult to square the cited reoffending rates with what is actually happening
If you look at organisations such as the Howard League and also the Prison Reform Trust, you’ll see the proof that the reoffending rates that are quoted are merely 12 months - which you will note is the prime time for offenders to be extremely careful about reoffending since they are readily returned to prison on breach of their licence conditions
Warning - .pdf with huge numbers of figures
http://www.prisonreformtrust.org.uk/Portals/0/Documents/Bromley%20Briefings/Summer%202017%20factfile.pdf
In fact if you look especially at young offenders(who will eventually become adult offenders if intervention is not successful) you will find that locking them away is markedly less successful at reducing reoffending than community sentences
A few years ago, we in the UK used to calculate our reoffending rates based on a 2 year release from prison - and now we do it over a 12 month period - you do not have to be a genius to work out why.
How do I know that those 12 month reoffending rates are a load of hogwash? well all I can do is quote from documents that I have not been able to obtain online - such as ‘Criminal recidivism: explanation, prediction and prevention’ by George Zara/David P Farringdon p10 table 1.1 pub Routledge
where you will find the 9 year reconviction rate in the UK is around 74%
Unfortunately it is not easy to obtain the more realistic figures that are taken at 2 yearly intervals, at 3,5,7, and 9 years of first conviction - these are far more meaningful measures than the politician friendly 12 month reconviction rates - however even when you use your own logic then its obvious that the statistics frequently bandied about are specious at best.
Think about a decreasing exponential curve, with time on the x-axis and percentage on the y axis, in the first 12 months you have 46%, its not hard to work out that over the following 12 months the figure will be 46% of that, and so on - plot it out and see what you get, strangely enough, over a period of 9 years that will get you much closer to the figures I have quoted than the misleading 12 months reoffending rates.
Personally, I think that a correctional system that only looks at 12 months is utter bollocks, I would hope that most citizens would prefer to consider what reoffending rates look like over a longer period - since these truly expose the failure of our prison system.