# Do psychics actually believe the predictions they are making? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [May 14, 2011, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933 "2011-05-14T21:45:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Craneop2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Craneop2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Craneop2)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2011, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933/42 "2011-06-15T18:59:24Z")
Back when I was in the billboard business, We had one location that was literally in the front yard of one of those palm reader/fortune teller type places. We got there a little early one morning. I was setting up my crane to pick the faces off the sign when the old lady that ran the place came out screaming that we had awakened her. Absolutely berating me for not calling before we came out. I told her “Hell you’re the fortune teller…You shoulda known we were coming”. she turned and went back inside muttering all the way. True story.🙂 Sounds like a joke, BUT I can assure you it’s true. ---
**Author:** ![chrisk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@chrisk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chrisk)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2011, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933/43 "2011-06-15T19:06:17Z")
It’s the attack of the zombie psychics! Or is it? Do you need to be inactive more than 30 days to qualify as a zombie? ---
**Author:** ![Pyper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Pyper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pyper)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2011, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933/44 "2011-06-15T19:11:53Z")
> [@lilij](#): > > Hi, > > It is controversial. I think that there are many people who believe in psychic readings and also many people who don’t. I didn’t really believe in psychics until I visited Kooma. There they have really skilled psychic readers. If you are not satisfied with your psychic reading, they give you a bonus one. > If you are looking for genuine psychic readings in UK, check: link broken by moderator. If you are not satisfied with this ineffective service, we will give you another ineffective service! ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2011, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933/45 "2011-06-15T19:54:23Z")
> [@Noel\_Prosequi](#): > > Time goes by, and when the “gift” doesn’t come as reliably as they believe, they have to make little compromises of showmanship to keep things going, which they justify to themselves as white lies behind which a genuine truth is just waiting to burst out. > > Later still, as the “gift” still doesn’t work like they originally believed and they are doing more and more compromising to keep the balls in the air, there must come a point where they realise its bollocks, but by that time they are so invested in their own mythology that they are unwilling to back out. So they rationalise along the lines of the John Edward pseudo-quote above and become frank frauds, or they get out of it and sell insurance or whatever. Or, they rationalize the opposite way by tallying the hits and forgetting the misses and come to the opposite conclusion – that they truly are psychic, just not all the time. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2011, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933/46 "2011-06-15T20:49:00Z")
> [@Princhester](#): > > Also, the very fact that younger and less experienced psychics will sometimes participate in Randi or Derren Brown’s tests or experiments (only to fail, of course) while the big names avoid any testing like the plague, suggests they know very well what they cannot do. Randi himself has said that, in his opinion, most of the psychics who come to take his test are NOT charlatans. Most seem to be very nice, very sincere people who genuinely believe they have psychic powers. And when they fail the test, Randi says, almost none of them are fazed. They’ll chalk it up to bad luck, saying “The spirits weren’t communicating today” or “The gift just wasn’t in synch today.” ---
**Author:** ![Kevbo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e47774/32.png) [@Kevbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kevbo)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2011, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933/47 "2011-06-15T22:07:40Z")
I can’t seem to find a cite, but I recall a TV show (Nova?) where Randi was speaking to a group of school kids. At one point (I think in college) he started doing Tarot readings on a lark, and he and his “customers” (I don’t recall if he was charging $) were amazed at how uncannily accurate his readings were. While he KNEW it was B-S, he still started wondering if there were something to this. So he started “reading” exactly the opposite of what the cards were “telling” him, and his customers were STILL astounded at the accuracy! At that point he knew it really didn’t matter what he told them. If the readings have some ambiguity in them, many if not most people who believe, or want to believe in the woo will be able to fit their circumstances into the yarn the psychic is spinning. With enough such reinforcement I have no doubt that many psychics become convinced of their powers. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2011, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933/48 "2011-06-15T22:31:45Z")
Psychics probably have about the same level of belief in their predictive powers as economic policy advisers…and roughly the same degree of successful predictions. The difference is, economic theory is taught out of expensive textbooks and its practitioners are consulted by world leaders, while tarot reading and astrology are self-taught out of cheap books and its practitioners are consulted by world leaders. So it is really a difference in the quality of publication materials. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Damfino](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Damfino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damfino)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2011, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933/49 "2011-06-16T20:59:54Z")
> [@Noel\_Prosequi](#): > > \ and they are doing more and more compromising to keep the balls in the air, there must come a point where they realise its bollocks,..\ Sorry, I couldn’t resist quoting this. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2011, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933/50 "2011-06-17T02:11:06Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > Randi himself has said that, in his opinion, most of the psychics who come to take his test are NOT charlatans. Most seem to be very nice, very sincere people who genuinely believe they have psychic powers. And when they fail the test, Randi says, almost none of them are fazed. They’ll chalk it up to bad luck, saying “The spirits weren’t communicating today” or “The gift just wasn’t in synch today.” I’ve heard him say that about dowsers. I have never heard him say that about psychics. Not saying you are wrong, but I am surprised I haven’t read that before now. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2011, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933/51 "2011-06-17T03:00:00Z")
I don’t think Randi was saying that about psychics in general, just about the ones who apply for his test. The ones who know they are frauds don’t try to take the test. The ones who do show up tend to be naive and self-deluded, not the cynical con-artists who comprise most of the industry. The cynical con artists know better than to go anywhere near JREF. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Miskatonic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.miskatonic/32/310_2.png) [@Mr.Miskatonic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Miskatonic)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2011, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933/52 "2011-06-17T13:28:11Z")
> [@Kevbo](#): > > I can’t seem to find a cite, but I recall a TV show (Nova?) where Randi was speaking to a group of school kids. > > At one point (I think in college) he started doing Tarot readings on a lark, and he and his “customers” (I don’t recall if he was charging $) were amazed at how uncannily accurate his readings were. While he KNEW it was B-S, he still started wondering if there were something to this. So he started “reading” exactly the opposite of what the cards were “telling” him, and his customers were STILL astounded at the accuracy! At that point he knew it really didn’t matter what he told them. > > If the readings have some ambiguity in them, many if not most people who believe, or want to believe in the woo will be able to fit their circumstances into the yarn the psychic is spinning. With enough such reinforcement I have no doubt that many psychics become convinced of their powers. The story as in one of Randi’s books is that he wrote an astrology column for a local 'zine and did it by just picking random phrases out of a hat (literally) and pasting them together. When he overheard some folks talking about how accurate the column was he dropped it. I think it was Paul Kurtz who did tarot card readings as a youth and was convinced of his abilities because of the customer’s reaction. When a friend challenged him to read the opposite of what the cards were telling him he found the customer’s reaction was the same. That started him on the skeptical path. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2011, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933/53 "2011-06-17T13:47:54Z")
> [@Mr.Miskatonic](#): > > I think it was Paul Kurtz who did tarot card readings as a youth and was convinced of his abilities because of the customer’s reaction. When a friend challenged him to read the opposite of what the cards were telling him he found the customer’s reaction was the same. That started him on the skeptical path. Can’t confirm that about Paul Kurtz, but Ray Hyman (U of Oregon) often told this story about his college days. ---
**Author:** ![Kevbo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e47774/32.png) [@Kevbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kevbo)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2011, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933/54 "2011-06-17T14:16:24Z")
You guys (gals?) are probably right. I do think James Randi was on that Nova episode, but I am probably confusing the stories of others on the same show. The bit about it being when in college defiantly fits with my faded memory. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Miskatonic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.miskatonic/32/310_2.png) [@Mr.Miskatonic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Miskatonic)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2011, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933/55 "2011-06-17T14:17:35Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Can’t confirm that about Paul Kurtz, but Ray Hyman (U of Oregon) often told this story about his college days. You’re probably right. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-psychics-actually-believe-the-predictions-they-are-making/581933.md?page=2)