# Do they really know where Osama is? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 8, 2004, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193 "2004-02-08T23:43:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![elmwood](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmwood/32/3060_2.png) [@elmwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elmwood)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2004, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/1 "2004-02-08T23:43:22Z")
With my mind briefly in tinfoil hat conspiracy theorist mode, I wondered … could the administration know where Osama bin Ladin really is? Is it possible that the administration and the military know his exact whereabouts, and have know about them for the past several months, but they could capture him at any time? Like, for instance … a week or so before the election? After all, when Saddam Hussein was captured, it wasn’t the military that did it; it was George Bush, in the eyes of the media. “Bush Captures Saddam!” No doubt the same thing would happen when Osama bin Ladin is captured. The masses think that Dubya himself went to Pakistan or Afghanistan or wherever, and flushed him out single-handedly. “Hey, I’m changing my vote! What the hell did Kerry ever do in Vietnam, anyhow? He didn’t capture Ho Chi Minh!” So, could the administration know where Osama is, but they’re just keeping it under wraps until the right time? ---
**Author:** ![pantom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/34f0e0/32.png) [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2004, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/2 "2004-02-08T23:46:56Z")
My theory is that sometime in Sept or early Oct Bush will call in everyone related to intelligence and national security and tell them to find Osama or find another job, because of the tightness of the coming election. The result will be that OBL will be found around Halloween. Whether that will be enough to re-elect him, I don’t know, but I don’t see how it would hurt his chances, that’s for sure. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/3 "2004-02-09T00:10:25Z")
I think that Osama is smart enough to know that he’ll have to hide real good this summer; perhaps a vacation in Kashmir, maybe even China. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Carter\_of\_Mars](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/2bfe46/32.png) [@John\_Carter\_of\_Mars](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Carter_of_Mars)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/4 "2004-02-09T00:11:27Z")
They’ve already got him. He’s being held in a cave deep under Area 51. They’ll fly him back to Afganistan in October, Bush will fly over there, put on fatigues, and be photo-op’ed marching OBL down a dusty mountainside, Colt-45 pistol firmly in the presidental hand. That’s my theory and I’m stickin’ to it! ---
**Author:** ![Beagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/85f322/32.png) [@Beagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beagle)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/5 "2004-02-09T00:12:57Z")
My theory is that the last place Geraldo could confirm Usama is Tora Bora. I learned that it’s really easy to slip around in that area and to get into “Pakistan”. Actually, tribal areas with no real government. Until proven otherwise, my trail begins and ends there. The fact that the government has “announced” a Spring offensive in that area only confirms my suspicions that nobody really knows where he is. I would say that some places are out of the question. So “the Earth” would be too broad. OTOH, yes, I did say “announced”. WTF? That probably deserves its own pit thread. [Latest news: al Qaeda wants to use WMDs.](http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=6&u=/ap/20040208/ap_on_re_as/terror_dirty_bomb) Also, raccoons really good at opening latches and octopus has no skeleton. ---
**Author:** ![laigle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ce7236/32.png) [@laigle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/laigle)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/6 "2004-02-09T01:24:37Z")
Alternative conspiracy theory (note, the following in no way represents the views held by the poster or his sponsors): Osama got blowed up at Tora Bora, and we’ve been sitting on the corpse ever since. Just before the election, the DNA tests will “come back.” I dunno. I think if he was really in as small a region as they keep saying, we’d have him already. I think the “He’ll be caught any minute now” schtick is the politics. Note that we’re going to catch him in the next year. So Bush can keep saying it’s around the corner through the election. ---
**Author:** ![Beagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/85f322/32.png) [@Beagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beagle)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/7 "2004-02-09T01:49:09Z")
DNA _tests_?! Ha. That’s only the half of it. They are using his DNA to conduct secret experiments into building the perfect human superweapon to _rule the world_. Bedouin Boys of Basra ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/8 "2004-02-09T01:53:44Z")
Well, “they” know Osama is somewhere on planet Earth, so in that sense, yes, they know where he is. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Sofa\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/58956e/32.png) [@Sofa\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sofa_King)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/9 "2004-02-09T04:26:58Z")
“They” know he’s [within a forty-square-mile wide strip of Pakistan](http://abcnews.go.com/sections/wnt/World/sept11_waziristan030908.html), but unfortunately we’re not allowed to foray there. Yet. My guess is we’ll have to forgive the top Pakistani nuclear scientist his indiscretion of _[shopping around nuclear technology to every bastard enemy the free world has](http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Articles.asp?Article=73721&Sn=WORL)_ in order to gain access to that territory. If we’re lucky, when Karl Rove conceives of such an idea as cooperation with a non-Christian nation, we’ll have Osama in the bag by early October, which would coincidentally be very expedient for the reelection campaign. As is everything these people shall do before now and then. ---
**Author:** ![Rashak\_Mani](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ea666f/32.png) [@Rashak\_Mani](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rashak_Mani)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/10 "2004-02-09T13:09:09Z")
Well if the US does capture Osama Bin Laden… opppssss or if Bush captures Osama and presents him way before election time I will be surprised… quite surprised. Especially after seeing how fast Saddam’s capture boosted his ratings and how fast those same ratings dropped. ---
**Author:** ![puddleglum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puddleglum/32/137_2.png) [@puddleglum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puddleglum)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/11 "2004-02-09T17:06:30Z")
My theory is that the Democrats have him. They know how much a political coup it would be for Bush if OBL was caught so they got Barbra Streisand to bribe the Pakistani secret service to hand him over to the DNC. He is living in the basement of Kerry’s mansion in Boston and Kerry will present his head on a platter during his acceptance speech at the convention, ensuring the election. ---
**Author:** ![Beagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/85f322/32.png) [@Beagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beagle)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/12 "2004-02-09T18:49:05Z")
OK, so the Islamic Bomb state – with the friendly smiley-faced dictator – under assault from goodness knows how many terrorist groups (at least al Qaeda, and posssibly his own ISI) – a nation one might describe as a baked potato that you missed a digit and forgot to poke holes in sitting in the microwave. Madrassas. Taliban. Nuclear exporter. Kashmir. Islamic fundamenatlist hotbed. Um, I’m all ears. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/13 "2004-02-09T19:36:57Z")
> [@Rashak Mani](#): > > Well if the US does capture Osama Bin Laden… opppssss or if Bush captures Osama and presents him way before election time I will be surprised… quite surprised. Especially after seeing how fast Saddam’s capture boosted his ratings and how fast those same ratings dropped. I hate to give Karl Rove any more ideas, but maybe the plan is to wait for the weekend before the election, and then announce that US troops in Afghanistan believe they have found Osama’s body. One quick ratings boost and re-election later, they can just recant it as a false positive… ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/14 "2004-02-09T19:44:47Z")
It’s possible that Bush knows exactly where Osama is, but has super-secret intelligence type information that discourages him from tangling with the dude. Something like this would do nicely: > [@](#): > > Al-Qaida has possessed tactical nuclear weapons for about six years, the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper reported Sunday. > … > However, the sources said Al-Qaida doesn’t intend to use the weapons against American forces in Muslim countries, “due to the serious damage” it could cause. But that decision is subject to change, the sources said, if Al-Qaida “is dealt a serious blow that won’t leave it any room to maneuver.” > The possibility of detonating the nuclear devices on American soil was also raised in the report, although no details were given. [Report: Al-Qaida has obtained tactical nuclear explosives](http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/spages/392006.html) It wouldn’t look good on the president’s resume if bin Laden was captured in August, and Boston was vaporized in September. ---
**Author:** ![Lambo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecc23a/32.png) [@Lambo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lambo)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/15 "2004-02-09T19:55:18Z")
> [@Beagle](#): > > DNA _tests_?! Ha. That’s only the half of it. They are using his DNA to conduct secret experiments into building the perfect human superweapon to _rule the world_. Bedouin Boys of Basra Well, that would explain why we haven’t seen Steve Guttenberg in a while. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/16 "2004-02-09T21:54:43Z")
I’m not one for conspiracy theories, but I couldn’t help noticing that Bush seemed to be suppressing a grin when Tim Russert asked him if he had a good idea where Osama was hiding. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/17 "2004-02-09T23:40:25Z")
Is this the same “They” who are always saing things: “They say that…” As for the OP, **anything** is possible. The question is, is it probable. And the answer is “no”. What is possible, and probable, is that Bush will be pushing harder and harder for ObL’s capture as we get closer to the election. ---
**Author:** ![sibyl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b9e5f3/32.png) [@sibyl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sibyl)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2004, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/18 "2004-02-09T23:53:13Z")
Rumor has it that they have all but given up on searching for OBL because the Pakistani regime believes it would cause instabliity in the region. I can’t imagine OBL couldn’t get outta there if he was so inclined. I’ve been to this region, there is no way they could stop it. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2004, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-they-really-know-where-osama-is/228193/19 "2004-02-10T00:00:51Z")
> [@puddleglum](#): > > My theory is that the Democrats have him. They know how much a political coup it would be for Bush if OBL was caught so they got Barbra Streisand to bribe the Pakistani secret service to hand him over to the DNC. He is living in the basement of Kerry’s mansion in Boston and Kerry will present his head on a platter during his acceptance speech at the convention, ensuring the election. There’s just one problem with your theory. It’s Jane Fonda, not Streisand.