# Do Trump and Republicans in general get more out of replacing a justice now or later? Which will occur? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 19, 2020, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966 "2020-09-19T00:29:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/61 "2020-09-21T02:35:09Z")
Of course Trump will nominate someone. The words “delayed gratification” are not in his vocabulary. > [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Four Republicans have said they won’t vote before the inauguration. Not that we can believe anything they say. Before the inauguration, or before the election? I think the first quote I saw from Susan Collins, was that the vote on a nominee should not be taken until after the election. That leaves the possibility that Trump could lose, but she’d still vote to confirm. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/62 "2020-09-21T02:53:07Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Another factor is that you know Biden is going to be facing pressure from the D’s to pack the court if he is elected. > > Problem is, saying this in public “I will pack the court if I win” could potentially backfire on Biden with centrist/moderate voters. Also if this taboo is broken then every time either party controls both houses of Congress and the Presidency the Supreme Court is going to get enlarged. ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/63 "2020-09-21T04:13:15Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > On the contrary, the losing Republicans would now have no reason _ **not** _ to give the D’s a middle finger by voting for Trump’s nominee. The D’s would do them no favors, they’d hardly be in a conciliatory mood after having lost an election, and they’d burn bridges by voting against a Trump nominee, so why not? Shocking how we can barely find three Republican Senators with integrity. Telling, that. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/64 "2020-09-21T04:24:42Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > The empty seat gets a lot of R voters to the polls and/or gets them to hold their nose and vote for Trump. Where do you get the idea that those who voted for him “held their nose” or that those who will vote him shal do so? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/65 "2020-09-21T04:44:55Z")
The way things are going (especially with re-alignment coming up and many states not allowing a repeat of the hyper-partisan gerrymandering of a decade ago), and if the Dems win the trifecta in November, the Republicans holding all three may not happen again for a while. I’d have no problem with Dems taking advantage of the moment and bumping it up to 13. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/66 "2020-09-21T05:02:47Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Here is the likely order of events: > > 1. Nomination > 2. Hearings > 3. Election > 4. Confirmation > > The result of 3 will have no effect on 4. > > Republicans gain nothing and put a lot of senators running in tight races in tough spots if they put 4 before 3. The empty seat gets a lot of R voters to the polls and/or gets them to hold their nose and vote for Trump. > > There is little to no reason for them to do things any other way. Why do you expect #2 to happen? Nomination, floor vote. Boom. Done. McConnell has already shown he and fellow Republicans are liars. Who cares if there’s a tradition of hearings. Traditions isn’t law. To be clear, I predict, nomination \> vote. No hearings. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 7:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/67 "2020-09-21T07:04:24Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Why do you expect #2 to happen? Because that allows Mitch to push the floor vote past the election. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/68 "2020-09-21T08:03:22Z")
> [@rocking\_chair](#): > > Putting up a nomination before the elections will have a huge backlash against McConnell’s senate. After the election… all bets are off. Remember…the current senate stays in power for two months after the election. That’s when McConnell will have at it. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/69 "2020-09-21T14:09:36Z")
If I’m thinking strictly long term political here, I think it would be better for republicans to keep a guaranteed long term majority in the court, even if it meant an increased chance losing the presidency and the senate. And i think it’s a better for them to do it now than as a parting shot after losing. ---
**Author:** ![Bookkeeper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bookkeeper/32/281_2.png) [@Bookkeeper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bookkeeper)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/70 "2020-09-21T17:58:56Z")
Trump will do whatever Hannity and Carlson tell him to do. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Winston\_OBoogie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.winston_oboogie/32/2945_2.png) [@Dr.Winston\_OBoogie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Winston_OBoogie)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/71 "2020-09-21T18:31:17Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > see both sides of this argument on RBG threads. One side thinks that they’ll do it ASAP, and the other thinks they’ll wait until after the election to use it as a carrot for their voters. What carrot? If Trump loses, there’s still 3 months for him to nominate a candidate and have McConnell ram him through a Republican majority in the Senate. There’ve been 2 Reps saying they’ll oppose any immediate nomination; do you really think they’ll vote against a conservative during a lame-duck session? > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > they tried to do that with Merrick Garland IN WHAT UNIVERSE WAS NOMINATING A JUSTICE 8 MONTHS BEFORE THE ELECTION THE SAME AS 1 MONTH? Scalia died in February; Ginsburg in September. Had it been reversed, I would have said McConnell had a point. NEVER before had a justice been nominated and the Senate refused a vote for that long. Never. Yeah, elections have consequences, and the US screwed it up big time 4 years ago. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > If Trump were to lose in November, I think more than 4 Republicans would bolt. This is especially true if Democrats win some seats, as the losing Republicans would have no reason to maintain party discipline. And the judge would look illegitimate if appointed by a lame duck and voted on by Republicans on their way to losing the Senate. I disagree. Trump loses, I don’t think there’s enough self-respect in the senate to defeat a conservative nomination. Let’s face it - win/lose/draw, you’re going to want a Supreme Court justice that matches your political bent. Trump loses, they KNOW Biden’s nominee will be more liberal than Trump’s. > [@asahi](#): > > Another thought: Democrats could use nomination hearings to their advantage if they can find a way to turn her into a corporate fangirl. What’s wrong with that? That’s a positive to the Senate republicans (and probably a few Democratic senators), and has no meaning to the Trump fan base. Wouldn’t cost them a vote at the polls in November. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/72 "2020-09-21T18:35:56Z")
I don’t think Trump and his supporters in the Senate have any choice but to try to ram an appointment through right away. Republicans can read polls and the professionals in the party know that the White House and control of even one house of Congress is slipping away from them, maybe for as many as 4-8 years (2024 is the next favorable year for GOP senate elections). They’ll need a solid majority in the SC to give Donald a fighting chance if the election is close enough to be disputed and, if that’s not enough, a conservative court that will impede progressive legislation for the coming decades. They need this appointment because it might be all they have for a while. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/73 "2020-09-21T18:53:25Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > To be clear, I predict, nomination \> vote. No hearings. That’s the way the majority of the Senate handled the impeachment ‘trial.’ ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2020, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/74 "2020-09-22T03:41:50Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > > [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > > > Why do you expect #2 to happen? > > Because that allows Mitch to push the floor vote past the election. And WHY would he want to push the floor voter after the election? Graham is on record today saying the nominee will be voted out of committee quickly so the full Senate can vote on them before the election. Plus, Trump has stated he expects the vote to take place before November 3. The only reason I see it _not_ happening before the election is if they don’t have the votes. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2020, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/75 "2020-09-22T03:46:15Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > And WHY would he want to push the floor voter after the election? Because doing so benefits the Republican Party. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2020, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/76 "2020-09-22T04:38:09Z")
Well, it looks like McConnell and Graham disagree with you. The vote will happen before the election. Unless they don’t have the votes. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2020, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/77 "2020-09-22T04:49:26Z")
Psychologically, a successful confirmation vote prior to Election Day could give a big boost to the morale of Republicans, making them all the more satisfied with Trump - but then might also make them happy and complacent, feeling less need to head out to vote on the polls. On the other hand, once Election Day is over, every Republican senator has nothing to lose. Either they won their election, in which case they have nothing to fear, or they lost their election, in which case who cares about anything anymore? - and could vote for the Trump nominee. So holding the vote before Election Day would boost the vote from 63 million Trumpers, but after Election Day would boost the vote from 53 Republican senators. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2020, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/78 "2020-09-22T12:48:12Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > The vote will happen before the election. We’ll see, but I don’t think so. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2020, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/79 "2020-09-22T13:09:01Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > We’ll see, but I don’t think so. I was with you, but I think I’m going to reverse myself on this. I thought McConnell would delay a vote so as not to force his vulnerable members to pick a side. But they all already have – Collins is a no, and Gardner, McSally, Tillis and Ernst have all said they support Trump filling the seat. And it looks like McConnel is confident he has the votes. Even if Collins and Murkowski vote no, as well as Romney (who has no reason to oppose this), at this point the fourth “no” is almost impossible to find. Grassley and Graham have reversed themselves and are on board. Maaaaybe Richard Burr? He’s said he’s not running again in 2022 and has shown some willingness to buck Trump on intelligence matters. But he’s been pretty lock step with the Administration on everything else. Given that, the only thing that could derail the nominee is some sort of bombshell revelation. And it would have to be massive bombshell – e.g. the Kavanaugh accusations supported by video tape and a written confession. So the best move for Mitch is to get this thing done as quickly as possible to minimize the amount of time for oppo researchers to dig into the nominees background and leave some wiggle room should the nomination go down for Trump to submit a second nominee. There’s still the argument whether a vote before the election would be more energizing to the right or the left, but I think it’s a wash. I think the contours of this race are set in stone, and partisans on both sides are already as energized as they can get. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2020, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966/80 "2020-09-22T14:29:41Z")
And Romney’s come out in support of filling the seat. Game over. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-trump-and-republicans-in-general-get-more-out-of-replacing-a-justice-now-or-later-which-will-occur/920966.md?page=5)