No, I don’t believe him at all. Read this thread for a discussion about it from three years ago. I’m linking to page two because you should pay attention to Boo Boo Foo’s posts. I haven’t reread the whole thing but I think his two most significant points were these:
I would not be surprised and only mildly disappointed if he did but given the intense scrutiny he’s been under from French authorities, I have no reason to believe that he has.
Agreed. They’ve managed to catch lots and lots of others from the same time frame which leads me to believe that either A) he didn’t dope, or B) he was better at avoiding than everyone else even though he had more scrutiny than anyone else.
I’d like to believe he was clean, but if he ends up having been proven to have doped I won’t be surprised.
Speculation is fun, but ultimately worthless. He was the most closely-monitored athlete in the world, and there is still no evidence that he ever doped.
No evidence, no crime.
I believe that he doped and have believed this for years.
The way I see it: He’s so far ahead of all his competitors that, no matter what he did or did not take, he must naturally be an extreme outlier to a previously-unprecedented degree.
So that leaves us with two competing hypotheses:
1: He’s an extreme outlier to a previously-unprecedented degree, and that’s what enabled his performance.
2: He’s an extreme outlier to a previously-unprecedented degree and also doped, and that’s what enabled his performance.
The first hypothesis is the simpler one. We already know he’s a freak of nature; it’s just a question of what kind of freak of nature he is. If it’s possible for a body to react in some way in the presence of some drug, then it’s possible for a body to react the same way without the drug.
What about 3: He’s an extreme outlier and cheated to an extreme degree, magnifying whatever natural advantage he had?
This is about what I would’ve said. I hope he’s clean as a whistle, though, and always has been - the world needs a few paragons.
It can’t be ruled out, of course, but my point is that him not cheating is the simplest explanation.
That’s certainly a possibility, but I would think that if he was cheating to an extreme degree that something would have been caught on all the testing that he’s undergone. I fully acknowledge that some level of cheating could get by undetected but I’m not sure I buy that an extreme amount of cheating would go undetected by the extreme testing regimen that he was subjected to. If my assumptions are unfounded I’m more than willing to change my mind.
I’ve heard some interesting theories about Armstrong’s dominance: he has huge lung capacity, his heart is one third larger than average, his resting pulse is 30 etc… Googling around is getting me nothing but speculation and rumor. Anyone know the straight dope about the claims regarding his physiology?
I don’t think so. The users are just so far ahead of the testers that passing tests doesn’t really prove anything.
If I had to guess one person in any sport that is guilty of steriod use, but hasn’t failed a test, it would be Lance.
He won 7 times against a field of dopers and cheaters, without cheating. I don’t think so. He was just a better cheater.
I don’t believe he used illegal PEDs. If it came out that he was simply ahead of the curve and used PEDs that were new at the time he used them, and no one knew 1) to check for them, and 2) how to check for them, I wouldn’t be shocked. (Doping, for what it’s worth, in its strict sense, is the blood transfusion stuff, and it seems like many people just use “doping” to mean EPO, steroids, HGH, etc, but I digress.)
I admit I see this through yellow-tinted glasses, but there are lots of reasons for me to believe him. One, he simply hasn’t tested positive, even though he’s Public Enemy #1 for WADA, the gotcha media, competitors, et al. Two, and this is more emotional, I just can’t believe he would do that after the cancer he had (it started as testicular, and spread to both his brain and lungs). The man is truly lucky to be alive, and I can’t believe he’d jeopardize that. Once the Livestrong foundation got going, I think it’d be too much to risk losing it through cheating, so he put himself in a position where he’d lose everything that matters if he took a misstep. Three, his training, from my understanding, was unique compared to his competitors. He was training in the dead of winter while his competitors were apparently relaxing. This astonishes me, because as an American sports fan, it’s been in my head for 15 years that there is no off-season. If the regular season is over, and preseason hasn’t started, you’re training. But my understanding this is that this wasn’t the case in cycling. Four, his story created more financial backing from Nike, Trek, and others to get the best training, bikes, equipment, and team available.
So, if you take those 4 things and add it to someone who’s already a physical freak, it’s not a shock to see the success.
You do have a cite for this, yes?
This can still be true even if he is doping.
40? Athletes have been taking PEDs for far longer than that. The stigma attached is relatively recent.
Yeah. Well, I wouldn’t call it a cesspit myself. But elite athletes always look for every edge. And always have. This one turned out to be awfully effective, triggering self-righteous outrage.
None of this is incompatible with PED use.
Something I’ve been wondering. If these chemicals didn’t enhance performance, but only allowed you to heal quicker, would they be OK? What if the health effects were eliminated? Or mostly eliminated (aspirin can have negative health effects).
One that would hold up in GQ? Not really. This is vague, but I’m at work and don’t have the sources available at the moment. I think it’s his 2nd book, a cyclist/friend/competitor (David Miller?) is said to have called Lance at a time when relaxation would be expected. Lance says, “No, I’m not doing [that].” Miller asks if Lance has been riding his 6, 7, 8-hour or whatever ride instead. Lance says “Yes,” and Miller kiddingly calls him an SOB. There was a DVD called “Road to Paris” put out in 2001 about the USPS team’s training for the tour, and it was implied there that the training Lance was doing in the Alps so early in the season was unique, and (I think) Johan Bruyneel’s book that came out a cople years ago (“We Might as Well Win”) made this implication, too.
Again, I’ve got yellow-tinted glasses, and these cites that wouldn’t hold up in GQ, but that’s what I’ve got.
My, what a cynical bunch.
No, I don’t think he doped. Call me Pollyanna, but I believe athletes can actually dominate their field without cheating.
Michael Phelps’ wing span and lung capacity clearly gave him an edge over other swimmers. Bjorn Borg had a standing heart rate (in the 30s) in an era when athletes didn’t spend 2 hours on the treadmill. Armstrong is gifted with a unique combination of unusually high lung capacity and low standing heart rate (30s). Take that physical edge and add in intense training, an excellent diet, and a renowned kick-ass competitive attitude, and it’s not at all suspect that one person is able to dominate his field of expertise.
You can’t also minimize the fact a mystique develops around some players once they start to dominate, which is incredibly intimidating to his competitors. I’ve seen Roger Federer win matches where the only thing he brings to the court is his record. Imagine the swimmer who sees Phelps coming on in his periphery. Or the dude cycling up the mountain who sees Armstrong’s jersey ahead of him. You can’t tell me that his behavior (e.g. blood pressure, focus) isn’t affected by competing in the same arena as the dude who has (6 gold medals/5 Tour de France/7 Grand Slam) wins under his belt.
The problem is that a lot of what steriods do is allow you have those ridiculous training regimes, because you recover faster. Steriods doesn’t mean you don’t work hard and it is often the people who are obsessive about training who want to be able to do even more. For example, Arod, Bonds, and Clemens all had outstanding work ethic by all accounts.
I’ll buy that, mkecane. All of his competition that were relaxing could have something to do with* needing* to rest after a grueling season of racing, while the financially independent Armstrong would merely train away for 11 months.