Following up my earlier statement about sane economists.
Let’s look at what the facts and figures are.
CBO, Feb. 1, 2021
Percentage Change from Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) 2024-2031: 2.4%
Core PCE Price Index 2024-2031: 2.1%
Consumer Price Index 2024-2031: 2.4%
Core Consumer Price Index 2024-2031: 2.1%
GDP Price Index 2024-2031: 2.1%
PCE Inflation Post 2023: 2.0%
One-Year-Ahead and 10-Year-Ahead Inflation Forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters [Excel document] 2021 2nd quarter forecast:
CPI 10-Year: 2.30%
Additional 10-Year-Ahead Inflation Forecasts from Other Sources [Excel document]
Livingston Survey, 2020 4th quarter: 2.23%
You see the analogy between this and the phony COVID cure predictions. I could throw in the climate change deniers as well. These are the forecasts from the real, sane, economists, the nuts and bolts consensus figures from the technicians whose job it is to make the forecasts that the country runs on.
I’m not claiming that these forecasts are always accurate; I’m not claiming that this year’s forecasts not yet available might not be higher. I am saying that contrarians will disproportionately make the news, because the media feels compelled to report both sides as if they are equal, no matter that the scientific community is all standing on one side and the handful of contrarians don’t issue technical reports.
Sam and his ilk predict inflationary ruin every single year. The Society of Professional Forecasters data runs back to 1991, when for the only time they predicted a 10-year rate of 4.0%. They dropped the forecast steadily since, predicting under 3.0% every quarter since the 1997 4th.
You can determine for yourselves which group has been truer to reality.