# Do you believe that Bernie will beat Trump? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 24, 2020, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441 "2020-02-24T15:50:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2020, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/61 "2020-02-24T22:51:56Z")
Clinton and Obama did not propose all kinds of major new taxes and spending when they were running. At least not that I recall. I recall Mondale saying he was going to raise taxes which led to 13 electoral votes. Reagan would have won anyway but Mondale should have done better than 13 EC votes. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2020, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/62 "2020-02-24T23:05:16Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > I would give him around a 1/3 chance of beating Trump. Sounds as good as any guess to me. I can’t see Sanders doing as well in the popular vote as Hillary did. But Bernie’s base of support varies enough from Hillary’s that the electoral college could be shuffled differently. A recent study estimated that [the Democratic ticket has a 35 percent chance of winning in a photo finish.](https://slate.com/business/2019/09/electoral-college-republican-advantage-texas-economics-paper.html) Not a bad fit with your estimated chances! I am going to, at slight risk of having to eat my words, rule out Bernie Sanders getting a majority, or having positive coattails for the House and Senate. Sanders and Trump are both weak candidates due to motivating their opponent’s supporters to get off their duff and vote. P.S. As I’ve posted before, I’m skeptical that Mike Pence would name Bernie the winner at the joint electoral vote counting session on January 6. But I take the OP question to concern who would legitimately win. ---
**Author:** ![eenerms](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/cdc98d/32.png) [@eenerms](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eenerms)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/63 "2020-02-25T00:26:28Z")
The Dems are going to screw Bernie again ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/64 "2020-02-25T00:53:44Z")
> [@Lamoral](#): > > I hear this repeatedly on this board and I have to wonder what reality the people are living in who put forth the idea that Trump would not debate his opponent. Trump LIVES for that stage. He would sooner cut off his own dick with a pair of pruning shears than miss an opportunity for the whole country to see him shit-talk the Democratic nominee. He’s GOING to be on that goddamn stage and whoever debates him is going to have to prepare very, very hard for it. What reality are you posting from? Because in my reality, Trump skipped a debate in the 2016 primaries. ---
**Author:** ![Dallas\_Jones](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dallas_jones/32/3277_2.png) [@Dallas\_Jones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dallas_Jones)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/65 "2020-02-25T01:01:01Z")
Bernie is a lot like Edith Keeler. The message is right, but the timing is wrong. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/66 "2020-02-25T01:09:27Z")
I don’t. but if Bernie is the Democratic nominee then I’m damn sure going to vote for him. But what I think doesn’t always reflect what is thought by others out there. For example, I didn’t think there were enough fucking moronic voters to put Trump in the oval office, but here we are. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/67 "2020-02-25T01:17:38Z")
I voted no, but that’s not because I don’t like Sanders or think he has less of a chance than the other Dems. I don’t think any Democrat is going to beat Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/68 "2020-02-25T01:27:11Z")
Wow…ok: - [Sanders polls better at beating Trump than any other candidate.](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html) In 2016 [Trump’s own pollster opined that Sanders would have beaten Trump](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/358599-sanders-wouldve-beat-trump-in-2016-just-ask-trump-pollsters) were he the nominee. Sanders is currently the front runner. Complain all you want that he does not have 50% but everyone else has fewer. Sanders is clearly energizing the party in ways that other candidates simply are not. Look at Sanders’ rallies compared to anyone else. They wish they could do nearly as well. Dems do better when voter turnout is high. So far Sanders seems best at doing that among the current crop. You may say that Sanders can not beat Trump but you have no reason to think any other Dem candidate would do better beyond wishful thinking. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/69 "2020-02-25T01:48:51Z")
> [@eenerms](#): > > The Dems are going to screw Bernie again And what obligation does the Democratic party have to someone who has never joined? Bernie will lose because Bernie is lying to the American people. Even if the Democrats take the Senate and hold the House, Sanders doesn’t have the backing of “his” party. He knows that, so whenever he says _my administration will blah blah blah_, he is lying. Empty promises from an empty suit. ---
**Author:** ![Projammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/projammer/32/559_2.png) [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/70 "2020-02-25T01:54:51Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > The problem isn’t the Republicans calling Bernie a socialist it’s Bernie calling Bernie a socialist. No one cares about the base. No one cares about anyone on either side that already knows who they are voting for. It’s how will it play with the 20% that everyone cares about. It’s about those thin slices of voters in the swing states. This. No one waving a socialist flag is going to win any time soon. You might have socialist values, but you’re going to have to rebrand it and call it something else. Bernie has been a self proclaimed socialist for far too long to be able to sail on that boat. This time around Trump will walk off with the majority vote as well for one of two reasons. a) BS gets the nomination and hangs from his socialist flagpole. b) The DNC ‘steals’ the nomination from him and the BernBros stay home in disgust. But look at the bright side. You won’t have to try to come up with a plan to defeat him in 2024. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/71 "2020-02-25T01:55:03Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#): > > And what obligation does the Democratic party have to someone who has never joined? > > Bernie will lose because Bernie is lying to the American people. Even if the Democrats take the Senate and hold the House, Sanders doesn’t have the backing of “his” party. He knows that, so whenever he says _my administration will blah blah blah_, he is lying. Empty promises from an empty suit. If that happens, Dems take control of both houses and Sanders gets the presidency and then the Dems thwart Sanders the Dems are only ruining their own party. Come next election it will be easy to point to them and say they couldn’t get shit done and it’ll swing back to the republicans. Republicans are great at getting everyone in their caucus to march in lock-step. Even when members hate each other they side with each other (almost always). Dems have never been good at that and what you describe is only worse. If the Dems want to commit political suicide because they are butthurt that Sanders won then I’m not sure the party deserves a future. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/72 "2020-02-25T01:56:42Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Wow…ok: > > - [Sanders polls better at beating Trump than any other candidate.](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html) > > In 2016 [Trump’s own pollster opined that Sanders would have beaten Trump](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/358599-sanders-wouldve-beat-trump-in-2016-just-ask-trump-pollsters) were he the nominee. > > Sanders is currently the front runner. Complain all you want that he does not have 50% but everyone else has fewer. > > Sanders is clearly energizing the party in ways that other candidates simply are not. Look at Sanders’ rallies compared to anyone else. They wish they could do nearly as well. Dems do better when voter turnout is high. So far Sanders seems best at doing that among the current crop. > > You may say that Sanders can not beat Trump but you have no reason to think any other Dem candidate would do better beyond wishful thinking. Hillary Clinton got three million votes more than Donald Trump got in 2016 and lost in the EC vote. I predict that Sanders will get at least three million votes less than Donald Trump and will get fewer EC votes than Clinton got. I’m not happy about this. I really don’t want to see four more years of Trump as President. But if there’s a silver lining to this dark cloud, it’s that Bernie Bros will finally have to stop saying that Sanders would have been the better choice in 2016. And if I’m wrong and Sanders wins, I’ll be so happy Trump lost I won’t care. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/73 "2020-02-25T01:57:14Z")
> [@Projammer](#): > > This. No one waving a socialist flag is going to win any time soon. You might have socialist values, but you’re going to have to rebrand it and call it something else. Bernie has been a self proclaimed socialist for far too long to be able to sail on that boat. Except he has, his whole career (35 years or more) and did very well in 2016 primaries and is winning now. They numpties who all scream “socialist!” and freak out are not the people who would vote for any democrat anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/74 "2020-02-25T01:58:23Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Hillary Clinton got three million votes more than Donald Trump got in 2016 and lost in the EC vote. I predict that Sanders will get at least three million votes less than Donald Trump and will get fewer EC votes than Clinton got. Assuming it is Trump vs. Sanders in the general election you wanna bet? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/75 "2020-02-25T02:01:42Z")
This message board has a new very specific rule that says “no betting”. Fyi. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/76 "2020-02-25T02:26:46Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Look at Sanders’ rallies compared to anyone else. [Funny you said that today.](https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/more-than-100-000-welcome-trump-to-world-s-largest-cricket-stadium-1.4183294) I realize that the great majority of the people packing that cricket stadium for Trump aren’t U.S. voters, but I did think someone should you give the obvious response. Actually, crowds are, like polls many months before election day, a poor predictor of election results. > [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Dems do better when voter turnout is high. [Could Higher Turnout Actually Help Trump?](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/19/knight-survey-nonvoters-battleground-states-trump-democrats-112135) > [@](#): > > The Knight Foundation asked nonvoters if they would be more likely to vote to re-elect President Donald Trump, vote for the Democratic Party’s nominee for president or vote for someone else. Nationally, more said they’d vote for the Democrat. But in more battleground states, more nonvoters preferred Trump. Maybe it doesn’t much matter who replaces Trump, because they won’t get much through Congress, won’t get Supreme Court nominees confirmed, and _will_ see their executive orders overturned by GOP courts. As for foreign policy, Sanders’ need to prove he’s not pacifist or communist, [already evident](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bernie-sanders-democratic-presidential-candidate-military-intervention-60-minutes-2020-02-23/), could make him, if not reckless like Trump, then a fairly typical Democrat in the unlikely event he moves into the White House next January. This is the conservative case for Bernie Sanders – he’ll have zero coattails and won’t be able to do much. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/77 "2020-02-25T02:27:41Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > This message board has a new very specific rule that says “no betting”. Fyi. You’re right. I didn’t know about it, but I guess I should have read the rules. Sorry. Forget about that. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/78 "2020-02-25T02:28:10Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > This message board has a new very specific rule that says “no betting”. Fyi. Even to benefit a charity? ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/79 "2020-02-25T02:30:01Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > What reality are you posting from? Because in my reality, Trump skipped a debate in the 2016 primaries. Yes, OK, he skipped one debate. In the primary. Not because he was afraid of debating anyone, but because he was engaged in a feud with Fox News. There’s a very big difference between that, and not debating the Democratic challenger in the general election. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/80 "2020-02-25T02:33:18Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > [Funny you said that today.](https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/more-than-100-000-welcome-trump-to-world-s-largest-cricket-stadium-1.4183294) You realize that is not a political rally for Trump where the people there came to see Trump right? > [@](#): > > [Could Higher Turnout Actually Help Trump?](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/19/knight-survey-nonvoters-battleground-states-trump-democrats-112135) I’ll believe that when red states start implementing measures to get more of their citizens (all of them) to the polls rather than doing the opposite as they are now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441.md?page=5)