# Do you believe that Bernie will beat Trump? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 24, 2020, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441 "2020-02-24T15:50:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/121 "2020-02-25T15:53:26Z")
Two issues that Warren wasn’t shy about, which might still tick off moderates if Bernie takes them up, are the issue of student-debt-forgiveness and racial reparations. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/122 "2020-02-25T15:58:16Z")
> [@orcenio](#): > > I have no idea. After Trump’s election I naturally assume that Americans are crazy who love crazy. It’s just a different world over there. I didn’t lose confidence in the American voter after Trump was elected. I understand why somebody might have fallen for Trump’s con. I’ve continually lost confidence in the American voter as Trump’s approval rating hasn’t really dropped below 40%. It should be near zero. Sadly, I think there’s a fair number of Trump supporters that want fascism (there’s at least one on this board). They see Trump as the saviour from the evil of liberalism that will destroy the country. Then you have the Republican tribalists, that simply cannot separate Trump from Republican, and recognize that you can support Republican policies while recognizing that not everything Trump says and does is a good thing. You can oppose Trump, and support Republican policies, and in fact, the best way to do that is to vote against Trump in the upcoming election (while presumably Republican down-ticket, unless a down-ticket candidate is a Trumpist. Republicans voters are the ones with the power to save American democracy.). But look at this board, some of the Republican posters are arguing that the DoJ and FBI should no longer have their traditional independent role, but rather should be the personal extension of the power of the president. Any why? Certainly, they’re smart enough to recognize the danger of that (and would be very opposed if the president was a Democrat), but because Trump said so, and Trump is Republican, therefore they have to support it. So, basically, there’s an alliance between tradtional conservatives, the religious right, and fascists, all voting in lockstep for political power. But don’t worry, I’m pretty sure that’s never happened in history before and turned out badly. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/123 "2020-02-25T16:21:15Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I also don’t favor “how do we pay for it?” as an assumed “good question”, because I think it assumes right wing conventional wisdom as true (i.e. that all spending must necessarily be paid for by taxes). Deficit spending can be fine, and obviously the last few decades have proven that the public doesn’t care much about deficit spending. So you don’t want Bernie to be up front about how much he will increase the deficit, because people don’t care about the deficit, and might not vote for him if they find out he is going to increase it. And “eventually we have to pay for it” is something we shouldn’t assume. Bernie should just keep quiet about specifics and promise freebies, and leave it to later to figure out how to pick up the pieces. “First, elect a socialist, and we will worry about the consequences later.” Oooookay then. I believe a good deal of Bernie’s support comes from people under 30. One wonders how they will react when they grow up, get jobs, and realize that they \*\*\*are \*\*\*going to have to pay for it. With interest. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/124 "2020-02-25T16:25:08Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > So you don’t want Bernie to be up front about how much he will increase the deficit, because people don’t care about the deficit, and might not vote for him if they find out he is going to increase it. > > And “eventually we have to pay for it” is something we shouldn’t assume. Bernie should just keep quiet about specifics and promise freebies, and leave it to later to figure out how to pick up the pieces. > > “First, elect a socialist, and we will worry about the consequences later.” > > Oooookay then. I believe a good deal of Bernie’s support comes from people under 30. One wonders how they will react when they grow up, get jobs, and realize that they \*\*\*are \*\*\*going to have to pay for it. With interest. > > Regards, > Shodan I want Bernie to win, and thus I’m advocating political messaging strategies that I think will help him win (and I could well be wrong – all of this is just guessing, just like the assumptions and preferred strategies of the other sides). This has nothing to do with actual policy positions. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/125 "2020-02-25T16:27:03Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > This is it in a nutshell. The election will not be fair. It will be rigged, skewed, dishonest, fucked up. The results will not reflect the desires of voters. Just like the last one didn’t. Only it will be even worse this time. I am not so sure of this. I think that any attempt to rig the election that actually succeeds will be by definition so obvious and egregious that Trump and Co. could never get away with it. IOW, its ability to succeed would be its downfall. I hope. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/126 "2020-02-25T16:38:30Z")
While I would not put all my stock in a single poll or theory, this [article](https://www.salon.com/2020/02/25/can-bernie-win-absolutely--and-i-dont-even-support-him/) from Salon illustrates how Bernie could win, according to a theory by Rachel Bitecofer (she predicted a 42 seat Dem pickup in 2018, actual number 41): > [@](#): > > …Bitecofer says the candidate isn’t nearly as important as voter turnout and the strength of “negative partisanship.” Simply put, national elections aren’t decided by issues, legislative records or many of the old school measures of electoral success… **Turnout and the will to inflict pain on the enemy at the ballot box is how elections are decided now.** This will be how any Democratic nominee can win. And there is no group more angry and vocal about the need to throw Trump out than Sanders supporters. ---
**Author:** ![Sterling\_Archer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Sterling\_Archer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sterling_Archer)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/127 "2020-02-25T16:39:50Z")
Bernie/Harris or Bernie/Abrams seems like a very strong ticket, no? Hopefully if he is the nominee he will be smart about his choice of running mate. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/128 "2020-02-25T16:40:45Z")
If I had to guess a running mate, I’d guess Stacey Abrams. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/129 "2020-02-25T16:51:23Z")
Here’s the problem with Sanders- I read an article that basically summed up what I’ve been trying to say in this and other threads very succinctly. Nominating Sanders will make the election basically a referendum on socialist/far left wing politics, instead of making it a referendum on what a corrupt, crooked asshole Trump is. That’s the LAST thing the Democratic party wants to do at this point- they need to stay on message about beating Trump and getting him out of office. Nominating Sanders brings all the focus off of Trump and on to Sanders’ policies, and IMO, those aren’t the kind of thing that’s going to win an election in this day and age. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/130 "2020-02-25T16:53:09Z")
What was 2016 a referendum on? ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/131 "2020-02-25T16:54:50Z")
> [@bump](#): > > Here’s the problem with Sanders- I read an article that basically summed up what I’ve been trying to say in this and other threads very succinctly. > > Nominating Sanders will make the election basically a referendum on socialist/far left wing politics, instead of making it a referendum on what a corrupt, crooked asshole Trump is. That’s the LAST thing the Democratic party wants to do at this point- they need to stay on message about beating Trump and getting him out of office. Nominating Sanders brings all the focus off of Trump and on to Sanders’ policies, and IMO, those aren’t the kind of thing that’s going to win an election in this day and age. So you just want to redo Hillary 2016 again. Just talk about how awful Trump is 24/7 without offering anything to inspire people to actually vote _for_ our candidate? Worked so well last time… ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/132 "2020-02-25T16:56:28Z")
> [@Fiddle\_Peghead](#): > > While I would not put all my stock in a single poll or theory, this [article](https://www.salon.com/2020/02/25/can-bernie-win-absolutely--and-i-dont-even-support-him/) from Salon illustrates how Bernie could win, according to a theory by Rachel Bitecofer (she predicted a 42 seat Dem pickup in 2018, actual number 41): > > This will be how any Democratic nominee can win. And there is no group more angry and vocal about the need to throw Trump out than Sanders supporters. And here is what Bitecofer herself said last June: > [@](#): > > “The big takeaway from this data is that Biden is clearly more electable than Sanders,” Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, said in an interview last week, adding that it bolstered “the perception that this election is the Democrats’ to lose unless they nominate Sanders.” > **[Sanders’ Electability Pitch Has a Problem](https://pro.morningconsult.com/articles/sanders-electability-pitch-has-a-problem)** > > Sen. Bernie Sanders has maintained a firm grip on his runner-up status during the very early stages of the Democratic presidential primary, but there are signs that his potential victory could inhibit the Democratic Party’s efforts to limit President... ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/133 "2020-02-25T17:07:25Z")
> [@bump](#): > > Here’s the problem with Sanders- I read an article that basically summed up what I’ve been trying to say in this and other threads very succinctly. > > Nominating Sanders will make the election basically a referendum on socialist/far left wing politics, instead of making it a referendum on what a corrupt, crooked asshole Trump is. That’s the LAST thing the Democratic party wants to do at this point- they need to stay on message about beating Trump and getting him out of office. Nominating Sanders brings all the focus off of Trump and on to Sanders’ policies, and IMO, those aren’t the kind of thing that’s going to win an election in this day and age. I think that’s the 2016 strategy. Maybe the 2004 strategy too. I don’t think it’s a good strategy. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/134 "2020-02-25T17:13:35Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > If not now when? > … > Really…when? > … > When is it you think enough is enough? I am all for universal health care in the U.S. And I understand the frustration of you and others (and even myself) that is hasn’t happened, and we don’t seem much closer since the ACA was passed. And like you imply, enough is indeed enough. However, the goal is to get the health care as soon as possible. You ask “who is the most likely to affect some change”? I disagree with your answer. It is not, and cannot be, Bernie at this stage when so many people in this country like their private care and _are able to afford it, or get it through their jobs_. And even assuming the best case scenario, that Bernie wins and the Dems take the Senate while keeping the House, Bernie will not have political cover to essentially stuff public health care down everyone’s throats. Without making this about Buttigieg, it is going to take some combination of private and public care such as he proposes. If this theoretical candidate can get elected, and institute major, but partial, public care\* such that it works and is widely seen to be cheaper overall, people WILL come over to it. I wish it were possible to just get it done pretty much immediately with a Bernie win, but I don’t see how it its. At least that’s how I see it. \*Even if this means just extending the ACA to more people over time… ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/135 "2020-02-25T17:14:50Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I think that’s the 2016 strategy. Maybe the 2004 strategy too. I don’t think it’s a good strategy. 2016, the strategy was aimed too much at how horrible Trump was as a person. For 2020, you can actually campaign on horrible stuff he’s actually done as president. That seems Bloomberg’s thinking and I hope it’s adopted by whoever wins. Quite trying to convince people Trump is a son of a bitch and start convincing them he’s not “our son of a bitch”. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/136 "2020-02-25T17:16:17Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Lots of folks have pushed back on this notion when I’ve called their predictions “guesses”. I’m still surprised smart people have any confidence in their own predictive abilities after 2016. I certainly don’t. I have hopes, and feelings, but no confidence at all that I have an idea of what will happen in the general election. What’s annoying us is that we’re basing our predictions on evidence and yours seem to be based on your gut feelings - and you seem to think the two methods are equivalently good. I used to have a co-worker who was a regular smoker. Somebody once asked her if she worried about the health problems caused by smoking. She said _“Some people believe that smoking causes cancer and other people don’t. I’m one of the ones who don’t believe it.”_ She apparently didn’t grasp that people who “believed” that smoking causes cancer were not just making their belief up; they had arrived at that belief by looking at the connection between people who smoked and people who got cancer. True, not everyone who gets cancer is a smoker and not everyone who smokes ends up getting cancer. But the connection between smoking and cancer is not just a guess. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/137 "2020-02-25T17:21:30Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > …when they grow up, get jobs, and realize that they \*\*\*are \*\*\*going to have to pay for it. With interest… Bath, haircut, job. Ah, the classics never change! ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/138 "2020-02-25T17:22:25Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > What’s annoying us is that we’re basing our predictions on evidence and yours seem to be based on your gut feelings - and you seem to think the two methods are equivalently good. I don’t believe your predictions are based on evidence – rather, it’s gut feeling disguised as evidence. There is no useful evidence for which candidate would be best in the general election this early, per Nate Silver. Maybe you disagree with Silver, and that’s fine, but so far you’ve utterly failed to convince me that you’re right and Silver’s wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/139 "2020-02-25T17:30:47Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > And here is what Bitecofer herself said last June: > > [Sanders’ Electability Pitch Has a Problem](https://morningconsult.com/2019/06/27/sanders-electability-pitch-has-a-problem/) Thanks, and keeping in mind it was\* last June\*, here are a few quotes from from [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944) earlier this month: > [@](#): > > Bitecofer has already released her 2020 model, and is alone among election forecasters in giving the Democrats—who, of course, do not yet have a nominee—the 270 electoral votes required to claim the presidency without a single toss-up state flipping their way. She sees anyone in the top tier, or even the second tier of candidates, as strong enough to win back most of the Trump states in the industrial Midwest, stealing a march in the South in places like North Carolina and Florida, and even competing in traditional red states like Georgia, Texas and Arizona. The Democrats are likely to pick up seats again in the House, she says, pegging the total at nine pickups in Texas alone, and have a decent chance of taking back the Senate. So again, and making it clear that I would never put all of my eggs in Bitecofer’s basket, what she suggests about the way people vote makes sense to me, and is one I’ve long thought might be true. That is, people don’t sit around their kitchen tables with a list of candidates, with Pro and Con columns and a scale of 1 to 10 ranking, and use it to figure out who they will vote for. Bitecofer again: > [@](#): > > “The idea that there is this informed, engaged American population that is watching these political events and watching their elected leaders and assessing their behavior and making a judgment.” > > “And it is just not true.” ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441/140 "2020-02-25T17:31:37Z")
Personally I expect the election to be filled with skulduggery and shenanigans from the Republicans and their overseas friends to the point that the public lose confidence in the democratic process, Trump declares victory and the country continues its slide to the dark side. But you never know. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-bernie-will-beat-trump/848441.md?page=8)