# Do you believe that the US will default on its debt? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 27, 2011, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-the-us-will-default-on-its-debt/590538 "2011-07-27T20:34:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 10\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Nars\_Glinley](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nars_glinley/32/8177_2.png) [@Nars\_Glinley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nars_Glinley)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2011, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-the-us-will-default-on-its-debt/590538/1 "2011-07-27T20:34:13Z")
I’m not looking for a debate. I just want to know what percentage of Dopers believe that the US will default on its debt. ---
**Author:** ![polar\_bear](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ec9cab/32.png) [@polar\_bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/polar_bear)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2011, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-the-us-will-default-on-its-debt/590538/2 "2011-07-27T22:24:44Z")
Does your OP mean we can’t discuss? I’ll put in my 2 cents anyway :D, I think the US will cut every other government service (except maybe defense) before they default on their debt. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2011, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-the-us-will-default-on-its-debt/590538/3 "2011-07-27T22:30:38Z")
I wouldn’t be surprised. The Republicans want as big a government and economic disaster as they can arrange, as an excuse for cutting social services and to blame on Obama. ---
**Author:** ![thelabdude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/dc4da7/32.png) [@thelabdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thelabdude)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2011, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-the-us-will-default-on-its-debt/590538/4 "2011-07-28T01:14:58Z")
Obama’s only chance for reelection it to make as big of a mess as possible and then blame it on the Republicans. He can count on the full support of the news media. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2011, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-the-us-will-default-on-its-debt/590538/5 "2011-07-28T02:02:45Z")
> [@thelabdude](#): > > Obama’s only chance for reelection it to make as big of a mess as possible and then blame it on the Republicans. He can count on the full support of the news media. The media slants strongly Republican. And Obama isn’t the cause of the present problem, except that he’s refused to stand up to the Republicans like the rest of the Democrats and let them do as much damage as they have. And yes, I realize that you are trying to pull the standard right wing routine of trying to pretend that both sides are the same. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2011, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-the-us-will-default-on-its-debt/590538/6 "2011-07-28T02:06:47Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > The media slants strongly Republican. And Obama isn’t the cause of the present problem, except that he’s refused to stand up to the Republicans like the rest of the Democrats and let them do as much damage as they have. > > And yes, I realize that you are trying to pull the standard right wing routine of trying to pretend that both sides are the same. That’s why the major newspapers all endorsed John McCain in 2008. :rolleyes: While mainstream media isn’t hard left (otherwise they wouldn’t have much of an audience) it is socially liberal and economically neo-liberal, ---
**Author:** ![Leaffan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leaffan/32/299_2.png) [@Leaffan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaffan)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2011, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-the-us-will-default-on-its-debt/590538/7 "2011-07-28T02:10:04Z")
No. It won’t. It can’t. There will be an 11th hour compromise. There has to be. Neither party is dumb enough to go over the cliff on this one. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2011, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-the-us-will-default-on-its-debt/590538/8 "2011-07-28T02:15:59Z")
> [@Leaffan](#): > > Neither party is dumb enough to go over the cliff on this one. The Democrats aren’t. The Republicans just might be. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2011, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-the-us-will-default-on-its-debt/590538/9 "2011-07-28T02:33:13Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > That’s why the major newspapers all endorsed John McCain in 2008. :rolleyes: While mainstream media isn’t hard left (otherwise they wouldn’t have much of an audience) it is socially liberal and economically neo-liberal, The media reflects the views of the public. It just doesn’t reflect the self-identification of the public. I voted no, but I’m assuming we’re talking short-term. I assume that we will one day many years hence; every country does, sooner or later. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2011, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-believe-that-the-us-will-default-on-its-debt/590538/10 "2011-07-28T03:05:33Z")
The US won’t default on its debt, assuming ‘debt’ refers to its actual bonds. Its A/P might get delayed a bit…pissing contests being the way they are. Let’s not forget, it can print money to pay down debts if it wants. In fact, it just finished doing just that. The presses are still well-lubricated. No one knows what will happen over the next month or two, but we should remember that the US Treasury bond market is the most efficient in the world. While short-term yields are relatively high (with 0% as the comp), longer-term rates seem to be completely unaffected. Where’s the fear that we should be seeing? I side with the wisdom of crowds. The value of the US is kind of like the speed of light. It is the economic constant, and everything else’s value is relative to it. The largest amount of money and the smartest money is wagered on its value every single day. I believe that the markets have it priced just right, and that there is virtually no chance of a prolonged default. But I do think there’s a good chance of short term dislocation because of short term panic. Of course, the ridiculously stupid (but apparently inevitable) reduction in government spending won’t help the stock markets as demand for good and services falls. But I suppose that’s the unfortunate by-product of “compromise”.