[QUOTE=Dangerosa]
Little simplistic. The rule of thumb is that you want between a 8 and 10% return on your money - but you want to be able to LIVE off 4% of it. The reason is that $50,000 when you retire in 2030 (or whenever) is not $50,000 when you die in 2045 (or whenever) and you not only need to cover the income, but the inflation. So you want to dump money back into your account every year so you don’t draw down the principal due to inflation before you die.
In ideal circumstances (for most of us, I suppose) you want to draw out the principal so that you run out of money and die on the same day. That’s a little hard to do unless you take the “step in front of the bus” plan. Another plan is to try and run out of money when you run out of health - nursing homes will eat through most people’s nestegg quickly - but timing THAT isn’t much easier (though that is what a good deal of estate planning is about nowadays - how to gift your money so the nursing home doesn’t get it - then worry about the estate taxes). I think the ideal situation is to have enough that you die able to leave money to a worthy cause (your kids, charity, college, a home for homeless cats), but that takes a LOT of money or an early death.
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The cumulative inflation rate is currently 3.42% Historically, though, I believe it’s closer to 3 (we always used 3/3.3/3.2 depending on granularity in class problems). It’s currently high right now because of the increased price to commodities and oil.
So, with 5% return, the nominal increase is around 8% return (I’m being overly simplistic in these calculations), but the real increase in buying power is more like 2%. However, you’re right in that the rule of thumb advice is to live with a 4% drawn down because rampant inflation might take effect (like in the present day). However, the more money one has laying around, the less likely one is going to feel the shock of losing principle. Anyway, by the time one retires the car and house should be paid off and there should be no kids to support, so spending around 4% should be relatively easy.
As for me, I like my job, so I’d like to work here as long as possible. Plus, I have this strange feeling that if I stick around long enough, I might make GC (or hopefully at least a DC for one of the major divisions). I don’t see retirement as an issue, and I save 10% (which is probably too much as I’m accustomed to living below my means anyway.) I have a 401(k) and a pension. I’m not counting on Social Security, and I wouldn’t draw on it until I was 72 anyway. I’m also half-heartedly counting on my pension (I don’t contribute to this), just because my company’s stock isn’t doing so well, and I can see mismanagement coming in out of nowhere.
If one can live on 70% of their current income, then I don’t see how retirement can be a problem to anyone, if they start saving now (like at age 25 now).