tl;dr version: If the NFL goes to an 18-game regular season, the magnitude of the downside (injuries) is quite uncertain, whereas the upsides (more football games to watch, more league revenue, less chance of a lockout) are palpable.
I’m absolutely in favor of playing an 18-game regular season and axing two preseason games. (Well, not *absolutely *in favor – more like 90%.)
- Preseason games are just death. They’re boring to watch, they’re less than vital to overall preparedness, and they’re a freaking scam: the players have to play (and risk injury) for free, while the season-ticket holders are forced to pay full price for two make-believe games every year.
By going to an 18-game schedule, we replace the boring, colossal ripoff that is preseason football with actual NFL games, which are awesome. This is the best reason to support the move, but there’s more.
2) 18 games is a larger sample size than 16 games. While talk of “parity” is usually overstated, there is nonetheless a rather larger amount of it now than in decades past, and having teams bunched more tightly together in terms of quality makes it harder to determine which teams are actually the best ones. With two extra games, the mediocre team with the weak schedule that’s catching a lot of lucky breaks is less likely to wind up in the playoffs – there’s just more time for their luck to run out. (In fact, the variance in schedule difficulty would itself be reduced, which is good.) Likewise, the sneakily-excellent team that underperforms in the Win column because of bad luck (or maybe a clump of missed games due to injury) will have more time to turn it around and claim their rightful place in the postseason.
With an 18-game schedule, the playoffs will be better and more competitive than they are now.
3) Injury concerns are real, but IMO overstated. First, as someone mentioned upthread, teams will adapt: they’ll use more rotation to keep players fresh, be a little less aggressive in pushing starters to play hurt, etc. Second, there are already plenty of injuries that occur in the two preseason games to be replaced. Granted, there are proportionately fewer injuries to *starters *in those games, but to the extent that one’s objection is based on player safety (as opposed to quality of the product), the point is largely moot: players get hurt all the damn time in preseason. Actually, the thing that’s really hurting the chances for an 18-game season isn’t injuries: it’s timing. Two or three years ago, in this type of situation (need more revenue to settle labor dispute), going to 18 games would have been a slam dunk. Likewise, a few years from now, when the anxiety over concussions has (presumably) died down somewhat, this will be an easier sell.
But, yes, bottom line is that injuries would be a *somewhat *larger factor with 18 regular season games. No matter how many games are scheduled, there’s an inherent tradeoff: do you want more football (greater revenue, more games to enjoy), or fewer injuries? I simply don’t see 16 games (plus 4 in the preseason) as some sort of ideal number or sweet-spot, which is pretty much a requirement if if you don’t want to add games and you don’t want to go back to 14 or less. We don’t know for sure what an 18-game regular season would be like, and I think it’s presumptuous to dismiss it as reckless (or otherwise unenjoyable). Just try it for a year! If you’re not completely satisfied, simply return the unused portion and revert to 16 games in 2012 (or the next time the CBA has to be negotiated). It’s not impossible to go back if it doesn’t work out. For instance, the league could make more money by adding a second bye week, but after trying it in 1993 and getting negative feedback, they ditched the idea. If 18 games proves to be as bad as some people fear, there’s no reason the league couldn’t backtrack.
4) 18 games is probably necessary to avoid a lockout. Granted, this is sort of a meta-concern, but still: it’s the only option available to increase gross revenue, and having more money floating around is probably the only way the two sides can get close enough to compromise.