# Do you take one box or two boxes? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [March 11, 2026, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360 "2026-03-11T05:59:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/241 "2026-03-13T19:27:52Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Only if the AI was wrong. If the AI was right, and you take just the one closed box, then the closed box has a million inside. Argh!! I’m about to put a hammer to your billion dollar genius computer. I just made up that third choice. 😡 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/242 "2026-03-13T19:29:54Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > I predicted how my wife would answer the question and I don’t have an artificial copy of her running on my gray matter. I flipped a coined and was right that it would be heads. What are the odds ?!? My wife and I are doing a kitchen redo so are ordering in and eating out lots. Tonight we will go out. I have zero confidence in my prediction of where she wants to go. And I know her better than anyone else in the universe. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/243 "2026-03-13T19:36:24Z")
On the Wikipedia page there is an addendum to some variants whereby the computer _also_ knows if you will be flipping a coin and places just the thousand dollars, not the million. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/244 "2026-03-13T20:17:48Z")
Compared to predicting the behavior of an individual human, though, predicting the outcome of a coin flip is trivial, because it just involves basic physics rather than neuropsychology. So using a random strategy doesn’t really seem feasible. ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/245 "2026-03-13T20:18:48Z")
Here’s a question for the two boxers. What if I told you that the computer is only wrong one time in a thousand? So if you choose the second box you have a 99.9% chance of it containing $1m. Then would you take only the mystery box? ---
**Author:** ![colinfred](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colinfred/32/21338_2.png) [@colinfred](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/colinfred)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/246 "2026-03-13T20:24:09Z")
> [@TruCelt](#): > > What if I told you that the computer is only wrong one time in a thousand? So if you choose the second box you have a 99.9% chance of it containing $1m. Then would you take only the mystery box? No. I get that some people disagree but please try to understand the argument. The 2 boxer view is that what has happened has happened. It is axiomatically true that the state of the box when opened is the same as the state of the box pre-choice. You cannot now change it. 2 boxers are not trying to fool the machine or get a crafty £1,001,000. They know they’ll only get £1000 but they also know that they can’t change it because it was already fixed. The machine is preemptively punishing them for being able to reason. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/247 "2026-03-13T20:25:30Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Sure, but if the computer is accurate enough, then only people who took one box will find the money inside. > > Sure, they’ll know that they _could have_ taken both boxes, but then they’d be far less likely to be in the one box situation. So what? In what way does this suggest what choice I should make? ---
**Author:** ![Eonwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eonwe/32/240_2.png) [@Eonwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eonwe)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/248 "2026-03-13T20:27:20Z")
> [@colinfred](#): > > “You walk into a room, there are 2 boxes. The 1st box has £1000, the 2nd box has an amount in it. I’m not telling you the amount, but I am telling you for a fact that the amount was fixed before you walked in. How many boxes do you want?” Yes. There is a broken understanding of cause and effect that seems to permeate this hypothetical. > [@Babale](#): > > I don’t think there’s any point in trying to trick the computer. Just take the one box. What trick? If the money is already placed, then no decision can be a “trick”, as it will have no impact on the results. > [@Babale](#): > > I should behave in such a way that the computer will have predicted that I took only one box, so that this box will be full of one million dollars. > [@Babale](#): > > the best way I can think of to make the computer think I’m a one boxer is to be a one boxer. > > So I take the one box. But you cannot be a “one boxer” until the moment of decision is upon you, at which point it doesn’t matter. You are making an assumption that how the computer decides is directly related to your stated reasoning in advance about this specific problem and your somehow-known follow through after the fact. What if half of those “one boxers” are actually “two boxers” who changed their minds at the last moment? And vice versa? We have no information about how the computer makes its predictions, or about the mindsets of those who ultimately make one decision or another. > [@Babale](#): > > The only way that the second box has money in it is if I decide to take only the second box. What if you die in the room before you can state your choice? ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/249 "2026-03-13T20:28:27Z")
> [@colinfred](#): > > They know they’ll only get £1000 but they also know that they can’t change it because it was already fixed. So why not just take the Mystery box? Then the predetermined outcome will be the one you want. You are denying your agency in the matter. You have purposefully refused to make the choice that would net you the biggest reward. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/250 "2026-03-13T20:34:34Z")
> [@colinfred](#): > > 2 boxers are not trying to fool the machine or get a crafty £1,001,000. They know they’ll only get £1000 but they also know that they can’t change it because it was already fixed. Huh? This makes no sense to me. What do you mean by ‘they know they’ll only get $1000 but they also know that they can’t change it because it was already fixed’? If they take the closed box, they’ll get a million. They can choose what box to take. Whats the purpose of taking two boxes if you aren’t trying to het $1,001,000? ---
**Author:** ![colinfred](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colinfred/32/21338_2.png) [@colinfred](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/colinfred)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/251 "2026-03-13T20:37:49Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Whats the purpose of taking two boxes if you aren’t trying to het $1,001,000? Because the boxes are fixed before I entered. The logic is clear that x+1000 is a bigger number than x and x is now an unchangeable variable. Because I understand this logic I fully expect the computer to leave the box empty, but I can’t change that now. ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/252 "2026-03-13T20:40:42Z")
> [@colinfred](#): > > The logic is clear that x+1000 is a bigger number than x and x is now an unchangeable variable. It’s clearer to me that $1m is greater than $1k. All you have to do to get the million is take the mystery box by itself. There is no logic in taking the second box. Your approach is self-defeating. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/253 "2026-03-13T20:41:03Z")
It seems that two boxers are trying to fight the hypothetical of the hundreds of previous boxes that were successfully guessed by the algorithm. While it does seem weird, so does the hypothetical of there definitely being no tricks that don’t require causality to be broken. If you saw the machine guess 1000 people previously correctly, there is a very very very tiny chance of this happening randomly. Probably a higher chance that the computer is just really good at psychology, but an even _greater_ chance that there is some trick going on. If you insist that the computer must have rolled 1 instead of 2 1000 times in a row, an insanely small probability, then it isn’t that much of an ask to insist that there could be other tricks involved as well. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/254 "2026-03-13T20:45:22Z")
> [@Eonwe](#): > > But you cannot be a “one boxer” until the moment of decision is upon you, at which point it doesn’t matter. If someone can predict your decision at the moment of decision, why does your decision not matter? > [@Eonwe](#): > > You are making an assumption that how the computer decides is directly related to your stated reasoning in advance about this specific problem and your somehow-known follow through after the fact. I don’t care _how_ the computer makes a prediction, I just care about the apparent fact that it can reliably predict my decision and then act accordingly. > [@Eonwe](#): > > What if half of those “one boxers” are actually “two boxers” who changed their minds at the last moment? And vice versa? If the computer predicted their final decision ahead of time, it clearly knew that they were going to change their minds at the last second, otherwise it would have gotten its prediction wrong. > [@Eonwe](#): > > We have no information about how the computer makes its predictions, or about the mindsets of those who ultimately make one decision or another. We have the only information we need: it reliably knows what people will pick and loads the boxes up such that the most beneficial choice is taking the single closed box. Why do we need to know anything else? Maybe if we knew the mechanics by which the computer works we can try to fool it to get $1,001,000, but if we are good with a round million, we know everything we need to to secure that reliably. Just take one box. > [@Eonwe](#): > > What if you die in the room before you can state your choice? The only thing the predictor is known to make predictors about is our decision on one vs two boxes. Maybe it can predict death, maybe it would just predict what you would have done had you not been killed. What is the point of that question? ---
**Author:** ![colinfred](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colinfred/32/21338_2.png) [@colinfred](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/colinfred)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/255 "2026-03-13T20:46:13Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > but an even _greater_ chance that there is some trick going on. Of course outside of a hypothetical where one of the axioms is that there is no cheating going on, 2 boxing would be extremely stupid. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/256 "2026-03-13T20:48:23Z")
> [@colinfred](#): > > Because the boxes are fixed before I entered. The logic is clear that x+1000 is a bigger number than x and x is now an unchangeable variable. > > Because I understand this logic I fully expect the computer to leave the box empty, but I can’t change that now. It’s true that x+1000 is bigger than x, but the scenario in which you are going to take both boxes and the scenario in which you decide to take one box are not equivalent. It’s x+1000 vs y where x = 0 and y = 1000000. 0+1000 is less than 1000000. > [@colinfred](#): > > Because I understand this logic I fully expect the computer to leave the box empty, but I can’t change that now. You could easily change that by internalizing the logic i presented and just taking one box. ---
**Author:** ![Xocomil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xocomil/32/14927_2.png) [@Xocomil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xocomil)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/257 "2026-03-13T20:57:31Z")
That only works if the computer makes its prediction after you know about the game. If the decision to put a million in the closed box is made _before_ you hear about the rules of the game, then there isn’t a damn thing you could do to change your odds. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/258 "2026-03-13T21:31:50Z")
Another idea, which makes sense or not depending on your feelings about the nature of consciousness: Assume the computer operates by creating a highly detailed and accurate simulation of your brain, and then confronts this simulation with the box choice in order to determine how it should proceed. But since your brain has the property of consciousness, then the simulated you would also have to have the property of consciousness in order to accurately represent your thought processes. Therefore, you have to consider the possibility that YOU are actually the simulation, and your actions will determine whether the real you gets the million or not. In that case, one-boxing is obviously the way to go. ---
**Author:** ![colinfred](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colinfred/32/21338_2.png) [@colinfred](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/colinfred)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/259 "2026-03-13T21:53:42Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > In that case, one-boxing is obviously the way to go. Not really. If I’m the real me 2-boxing is the way to go for reasons already explained. If I’m a simulation then the guy who gets the advantage of me one boxing is not “me” and fuck that guy. Either way if I don’t know if I’m “me” or not it’s still better to 2 box. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/260 "2026-03-13T21:57:56Z")
But if you’re the simulation, you’re screwed anyway, since once the computer has its answer it won’t need to keep running you and you will “die”. So you might as well make the choice that will benefit someone who is very much like you. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360.md?page=14)