# Do you take one box or two boxes? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [March 11, 2026, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360 "2026-03-11T05:59:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 392
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2026, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360/392 "2026-03-17T00:51:43Z")
I’ve now bothered to read how those in the philosophy departments handle this and found this post, which is good walk through: > **[The Box You Can’t Open Twice: Newcomb’s Paradox Through Four Mathematical Lenses](https://www.pokutta.com/blog/newcomb-four-lenses/)** > > TL;DR: Newcomb’s paradox — should you take one box or two? — splits rational decision-makers almost evenly. There are four natural mathematical frameworks (causal inference, algorithmic self-reference, statistical counterfactuals, and online... Some of us, not me are “causal decision theory” (CDT) people. Others are in my “evidence decision theory” (EDT) camp. But there are others too! It even includes a detailed analysis of the coin flip strategy @dprk and says the best is a slightly unfair coin that comes up one box slightly more often > At , the predictor leaves Box B empty and you average $510. At , the predictor fills Box B and you average $1,000,490. A 2% shift in coin bias produces a $999,980 jump in expected payoff. > > The optimal mixed strategy is just above : one-box slightly more than half the time. This earns approximately $1,000,500, which _beats_ pure one-boxing ($1,000,000) by $500. You get the million (the predictor fills Box B because you’re majority one-box) while occasionally grabbing the extra $1,000 when the coin lands on two-box … For those us who have gotten intrigued by the strength of positions held it is a good read! # --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-take-one-box-or-two-boxes/1028360)._