# Do you think Trump will win in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 19, 2019, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728 "2019-06-19T01:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2019, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/341 "2019-07-16T17:30:14Z")
I don’t understand why any Democrat should be alarmed. We always knew that Herr Donald was a racist, just like Charlottesville, this will cause some people to wake from their slumber, mutter “fuckin’ a, he’s a racist” and go back to sleep. By Nov 2020 it will be a dim memory. So the caucus has a group that wants to move the party left. So what? It’s only a problem if it drifts far enough left to lose the election. I don’t think either Biden or Harris are in danger of going that far. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2019, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/342 "2019-07-16T21:14:33Z")
> [@Unreconstructed\_Man](#): > > Just wondering…if a Republican was going to challenge Trump as a 3rd party candidate, do you think we would’ve heard about it by now? > > I’m just thinking, if I was Mitt Romney, given how rich I am, and given how much shit I’ve taken from Trump, running as a 3rd party candidate and siphoning off moderate Republican votes would be the perfect revenge. I wouldn’t win, but then neither would Trump. I honestly couldn’t think of a good reason why I wouldn’t do it. Romney did take a lot of crap from Trump but remember he seemed to be OK with the idea of being Secretary of state for Trump before Tillerson was picked . ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2019, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/343 "2019-07-16T22:25:42Z")
If “the squad” becomes the face of the Democratic party in the country’s popular imagination, yes Trump is going to win handily. The more press they get, the more blue-collar white middle America perceives that “The Democratic Party” = “The Woman Of Color Party”, and that spells doom for the Democratic nominee’s chance in the election, no matter who he or she is. I hate that I have to put it this way, and I hate to sound like women of color and don’t matter, they do. And they will fare much better under a Democratic administration than a Republican one. But in order for that to happen, Trump has to be defeated, and in order for THAT to happen, the non-college-educated white voters in the industrial Midwest need to feel like the Democratic party will represent them even if they aren’t sufficiently woke. I feel as if I’m watching a train-wreck in slow motion as 2016 gets repeated over again. And it’s not even anyone’s FAULT. I can’t cast any BLAME on the “squad” for doing their thing, they earned their offices fair and square. But the higher their profile rises, the greater the risk of Trump winning again. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/344 "2019-07-17T02:10:56Z")
‘Trump’s Going to Get Re-elected, Isn’t He?’ > **[Opinion | ‘Trump’s Going to Get Re-elected, Isn’t He?’ (Published 2019)](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/16/opinion/trump-2020.html)** > > Voters have reason to worry. Thomas Friedman addresses the Democrats: > [@](#): > > …Win the presidency, hold the House and narrow the spread in the Senate, and a lot of good things still can be accomplished. “No,” you say, “the left wants a revolution now!” O.K., I’ll give the left a revolution now: four more years of Donald Trump. > > That will be a revolution. > > Four years of Trump feeling validated in all the crazy stuff he’s done and said.Four years of Trump unburdened by the need to run for re-election and able to amplify his racism, make Ivanka secretary of state, appoint even more crackpots to his cabinet and likely get to name two right-wing Supreme Court justices under the age of 40. > > Yes sir, that will be a revolution! > > It will be an overthrow of all the norms, values, rules and institutions that we cherish, that made us who we are and that have united us in this common project called the United States of America. > … ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/345 "2019-07-17T02:36:20Z")
> [@Unreconstructed\_Man](#): > > Just wondering…if a Republican was going to challenge Trump as a 3rd party candidate, do you think we would’ve heard about it by now? > > I’m just thinking, if I was Mitt Romney, given how rich I am, and given how much shit I’ve taken from Trump, running as a 3rd party candidate and siphoning off moderate Republican votes would be the perfect revenge. I wouldn’t win, but then neither would Trump. I honestly couldn’t think of a good reason why I wouldn’t do it. Agreed. Could still happen! He would probably wait until next year. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/346 "2019-07-17T02:48:36Z")
Considering only four House Republicans (at least one of whom has already said he won’t run for re-election) voted to censure Trump for his racist, xenophobic tweets, I wonder where Romney’s moderate Republican support will come from. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/347 "2019-07-17T03:10:15Z")
> [@Kent\_Clark](#): > > Considering only four House Republicans (at least one of whom has already said he won’t run for re-election) voted to censure Trump for his racist, xenophobic tweets, I wonder where Romney’s moderate Republican support will come from. That’s a non sequitur. We don’t have proportional representation, so a reduced House GOP caucus that is very loyal to Trump does not tell us that there are no unhappy moderate Republican voters who would jump at the chance to vote for Romney. And it wouldn’t take many votes to flip close states. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/348 "2019-07-17T03:45:36Z")
But did they maybe vote Clinton and would otherwise vote D against Trump if not for Romney running third party? It could pull more from the D side than the R one. ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/349 "2019-07-17T03:51:25Z")
Splitting the Not-Trump vote would be an awful idea. A 3rd party run by a Republican or someone like Amash would likely take votes away from the Democratic candidate, as Trump has the highest intraparty approval rating of any President aside from W immediately after 9/11. You will end up with a scenario where the Midwest, Florida and Pennsylvania stay red. Nate Silver has argued this numerous times on his podcast. Dividing Never-Trumpers between 2 candidates could be a disaster. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/350 "2019-07-17T04:32:35Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > ‘Trump’s Going to Get Re-elected, Isn’t He?’ > [https://nyti.ms/2k8Gaa9](https://nyti.ms/2k8Gaa9) > > Thomas Friedman addresses the Democrats: I find Friedman’s analysis to be very insightful and on target. This is exactly why I continue to believe Trump will be re-elected. The Democrats have no idea how to pull this off and the extreme left is determined to hijack the party and drive away anyone who isn’t 100% on board with their agenda. Independents may not vote for DJT like they did in 2016 but they may well just stay at home rather than vote. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/351 "2019-07-17T04:44:28Z")
The best way to beat Trump would be to encourage someone on the right to run against him as a third-party candidate, splitting the Republican vote. To help make that happen, the Democrats must put forward a candidate who is not threatening to independents and moderate Republicans. Go hard left and angry, and those people will hold their noses and vote Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/352 "2019-07-17T04:57:50Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > The best way to beat Trump would be to encourage someone on the right to run against him as a third-party candidate, splitting the Republican vote. > > To help make that happen, the Democrats must put forward a candidate who is not threatening to independents and moderate Republicans. Go hard left and angry, and those people will hold their noses and vote Trump. Howard Schultz tried to fill that niche and was basically run out of town. Both sides are going to be extremely hostile to third parties since the perception is it’s going to be close like last time. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/353 "2019-07-17T05:59:08Z")
I think a Republican running a third-party campaign could help or hurt Trump depending on their ideology. A moderate would probably help Trump. An archconservative attacking him from the right could hurt him. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 10:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/354 "2019-07-17T10:54:16Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > I think a Republican running a third-party campaign could help or hurt Trump depending on their ideology. A moderate would probably help Trump. An archconservative attacking him from the right could hurt him. Not seeing how a moderate would help Trump. This supposes there are significant numbers of HRC-voting moderates who are crazy and stupid enough to vote for a Republican right now. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/355 "2019-07-17T11:50:40Z")
While I admit I could be wrong, I think there is an underestimation of how badly “go back to where they came from” is going to play for Trump when the campaigning really starts. Almost all of the other racist things he’s said can be twisted in some way to be non-racist or minimized. For example, the shithole countries comments can be rationalized as talking about how awful the country is, and not being racist against the people. But the “go back to where they came from” targets Americans. It is saying that there are some Americans that are lesser Americans, that they don’t belong here. While his racist base will eat this up, there’s no gain. For those people who don’t pay attention to politics, and might be swayed to vote for Trump (especially any minorities) this will play very badly. Go onto YouTube and look up videos where somebody goes on a racist tirade including “Why don’t you go back to Mexico?”, “Go back to where you came from”, etc. It is a very common refrain by racists a$$hats. Imagine those clips being played alongside Trump’s in some attack ad. It is a _very_ bad sound bite for Trump compared to everything else. Again, I could be wrong, but I think this costs him some independent votes, and maybe some moderate Republicans in an election where he can ill afford to lose them. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/356 "2019-07-17T12:13:43Z")
BKB, well put — but, sadly, I’ll believe it when I see it. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/357 "2019-07-17T12:33:55Z")
There will be large numbers of voters next year who declined to vote in '16, maybe fueling a record turnout. For Donald to win, he needs something close to half of them _and_ hold on to every 2016 voter he had. We may be underestimating how many of those previously non-participating voters are coming out just to rid the country of Trump. As unlikable as Hilary was to so many, she still got three million more votes last time. The predictions that a substantial number of those voters are now going to jump ship and vote for Don because of some kind of perceived lefty toxicity are pretty confusing to me. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/358 "2019-07-17T12:34:19Z")
Too early to tell. We won’t really have a good guess until the Republican and Democratic nominations are locked in and it comes down to who will be facing off. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/359 "2019-07-17T12:59:26Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > While I admit I could be wrong, I think there is an underestimation of how badly “go back to where they came from” is going to play for Trump when the campaigning really starts. Almost all of the other racist things he’s said can be twisted in some way to be non-racist or minimized. For example, the shithole countries comments can be rationalized as talking about how awful the country is, and not being racist against the people. But the “go back to where they came from” targets Americans. It is saying that there are some Americans that are lesser Americans, that they don’t belong here. While his racist base will eat this up, there’s no gain. For those people who don’t pay attention to politics, and might be swayed to vote for Trump (especially any minorities) this will play very badly. Go onto YouTube and look up videos where somebody goes on a racist tirade including “Why don’t you go back to Mexico?”, “Go back to where you came from”, etc. It is a very common refrain by racists a$$hats. Imagine those clips being played alongside Trump’s in some attack ad. It is a _very_ bad sound bite for Trump compared to everything else. Again, I could be wrong, but I think this costs him some independent votes, and maybe some moderate Republicans in an election where he can ill afford to lose them. I don’t disagree that this will hurt him noticeably in the short term, just as his “many good people” and “on both sides” equivocation in response to the violence in Charlottesville, and just like his scurrilous attacks on the Khan family after the Democratic convention. Both times his poll numbers went down by 4-8 percent, depending on the poll. He recovered, unfortunately, once he started behaving himself. He just waits for the news cycle to pass. From Trump’s POV, and what probably annoys his GOP allies, is that he can’t talk about what’s going well, which is the economy - the best economy in decades by some metrics. He’s missing opportunities to play himself up, which is why I think his poll numbers will nosedive once the economy finally slows down - but he’ll probably oscillate until then. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2019, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/360 "2019-07-17T13:02:35Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > There will be large numbers of voters next year who declined to vote in '16, maybe fueling a record turnout. For Donald to win, he needs something close to half of them _and_ hold on to every 2016 voter he had. We may be underestimating how many of those previously non-participating voters are coming out just to rid the country of Trump. > > As unlikable as Hilary was to so many, she still got three million more votes last time. The predictions that a substantial number of those voters are now going to jump ship and vote for Don because of some kind of perceived lefty toxicity are pretty confusing to me. It really depends on how white moderates, especially white women, perceive the Democratic challenger. I suspect that Trump will almost surely lose the popular vote, and he might lose the popular vote to any of the top five Democratic front runners right now. I suspect Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, should either of them get the nomination, would be in a position to win the largest share of the popular vote. But Warren and even Sanders could still probably win outright in terms of the popular vote - Buttigieg as well. As always, it’s the electoral math that’s the issue. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=19)