# Do you think Trump will win in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 19, 2019, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728 "2019-06-19T01:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 21
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2019, 6:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/401 "2019-07-18T06:45:54Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > AOC represents the people of serves as the U.S. Representative for New York’s 14th congressional district. Omar serves as the U.S. Representative for Minnesota’s 5th congressional district. Tlaib serves as the U.S. Representative for Michigan’s 13th congressional district. Pressley serves as the U.S. Representative for Massachusetts’s 7th congressional district. > > Do you want them to abandon their responsibilities and do a “tour of the country?” You seriously expect them to **hit every state and country fair and talk to people face to face?** Don’t you think that doing that would be a serious slap in the face to the people in the districts they represent? > > Can I suggest that your expectations are just a tad unrealistic? It isn’t the squad’s responsibility to do this. They have enough to do already. If Trump keeps demonizing “the squad” then what I would expect is for the Democratic leadership to step up to the plate, set aside their differences and unequivocally and proactively defend the squad. OK, first of all I think it’s a bit disingenuous to act as though the squad is just four backbench members representing four out of 435 congressional districts. If that were really what they were all about, they could restrict their interaction to constituents only. This is actually how it generally worked not long ago: to email someone in Congress, you had to use the House or Senate site, and it would verify that you were within the correct state or congressional district before allowing you to contact them. But AOC and her squad are all about reaching out to millions of people on social media. Which is fine, but then as I say you can’t have it both ways. Secondly, I support House leadership vigorously pushing back on bigoted comments Trump makes about any member of the caucus. But I don’t expect them to defend the squad’s left wing positions. If the members who swung red districts blue, and gave Democrats the majority, ask Pelosi to express public disagreement with some of those fringe positions, I expect leaders to listen to them a lot more than to the squad’s Twitter followers. > [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > …what is it, specifically, do you want the “hard left” to do so that you win those states? I want them to continue to make a case for their own hard left policy proposals. I want them to refrain from saying or insinuating that other Democrats who don’t support some parts of their agenda are racist, corrupt, part of a rigged system, etc. Just say “My friend Mr. Jones and I do not see eye to eye on this policy. Here is why I think it would be the best approach: [list benefits] And here are some limitations or flaws I see in the amendment Congressman Jones has submitted: [list non-hyperbolic drawbacks]” > [@UltraVires](#): > > I’m not debating at all the correctness or propriety of what he said. The SDMB is not a microcosm of society in these places. I grew up around conservative Democrats in WV. Believe me, when someone like Omar who grew up in Somalia (of all places) comes to the United States, becomes a naturalized citizen, and enjoys success here, but then uses that success to complain that we are evil, that we torture people, have concentration camps, etc., these voters that the Dems need are not impressed. And TBH, when it comes to my fellow Minnesotan Ilhan Omar, neither am I. We need to thank our lucky stars that Trump did not focus his tweets only on her. If he had, we would now be spending multiple news cycles dissecting what Omar has said and done, and looking at her life story and how arguably ungrateful she has been. By foolishly bringing in three other women of color who were born in the United States (two of whom are not even the _daughters_ of immigrants), he fucked up and took the focus away from what could have been a murkier and politically more problematic terrain for Democrats. Before Trump’s bigoted tweetstorm, Pelosi was absolutely doing the right thing in making sure that voters knew the squad does not represent the House caucus overall. She needs to go right back to doing that in a week or two, after the dust settles a bit. > [@BobLibDem](#): > > Lastly, we all fucking know how the Electoral College works. Don’t act like you’ve discovered gravity when you point it out. This x 1,000. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2019, 6:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/402 "2019-07-18T06:57:14Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Yep. > > Oh a dozen or so would do. > Nope. …so your problem isn’t the “far left” agenda, its that the “far left” hasn’t explained themselves well enough? This is why your position is confusing. You complained about the “purity police”. Your solution doesn’t fix the alleged problem with “the purity police.” Your position concedes that the “far left” have gotten things right, and the solution to the Democrats woes is for them to travel to grassroots areas and to “push them further left.” How is that congruent with your statements earlier in the thread? How does that match up with what Thomas Friedman said, which was “But please, spare me the revolution! It can wait”? Have you changed your mind? The revolution can’t wait now? Don’t you think winning the grassroots is the responsiblity of the Democrat Party, and party leadership? Shouldn’t they be travelling to these areas and shouldn’t they be trying to win the “hearts and minds?” Who are the politicians in those grassroots areas? Why aren’t they stepping up? > [@](#): > > I know. That’s why I’m confident DJT will be reelected. Obviously. If you truly hold the belief that the only way to defeat Trump is leave all the responsiblity for defeating Trump in the hands of four women people of colour then of course Trump is going to get re-elected. But that isn’t how to defeat Trump. If you want to defeat Trump you have to get your hands dirty. “Someone else” isn’t going to save you. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2019, 7:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/403 "2019-07-18T07:27:25Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > OK, first of all I think it’s a bit disingenuous to act as though the squad is just four backbench members representing four out of 435 congressional districts. If that were really what they were all about, they could restrict their interaction to constituents only. This is actually how it generally worked not long ago: to email someone in Congress, you had to use the House or Senate site, and it would verify that you were within the correct state or congressional district before allowing you to contact them. > > But AOC and her squad are all about reaching out to millions of people on social media. Which is fine, but then as I say you can’t have it both ways. …not disingenuous at all. The world is different now. Trump & Co understand that: thats what makes them so dangerous. AOC and her squad **can and do** reach out to millions on social media. They have a command and an understanding of how the social media landscape that the rest of the Dems simply don’t have. We are in a propaganda war with the Trump administration. What AOC and her squad do very very well on social media is they deconstruct the lies. They are at the forefront of combating the propaganda machine. Anyone who thinks that all they do all day is “post memes” haven’t spent any time reading what they say. So yes they reach millions of people. But that doesn’t mean they are either responsible or even able to reach the people that **Kolak of Twilo** seems to thing they should be trying to reach. There are over 20 people running for President. The Democrats must have a strategy to reach these people. This isn’t the job of the squad. There would probably be zero benefit flying them around the country for some sort of nebulous goal. > [@](#): > > Secondly, I support House leadership vigorously pushing back on bigoted comments Trump makes about any member of the caucus. But I don’t expect them to defend the squad’s left wing positions. If the members who swung red districts blue, and gave Democrats the majority, ask Pelosi to express public disagreement with some of those fringe positions, I expect leaders to listen to them a lot more than to the squad’s Twitter followers. Nobody expects House leadershop to defend the squads left wing positions. They do a good enough job of that on their own. > [@](#): > > I want them to continue to make a case for their own hard left policy proposals. I want them to refrain from saying or insinuating that other Democrats who don’t support some parts of their agenda are racist, corrupt, part of a rigged system, etc. Just say “My friend Mr. Jones and I do not see eye to eye on this policy. Here is why I think it would be the best approach: [list benefits] And here are some limitations or flaws I see in the amendment Congressman Jones has submitted: [list non-hyperbolic drawbacks]” Jake Tapper posted this today. > [@Jake Tapper](#): > > 8/ A few House Dems noted that Omar and Tlaib just introduced a resolution affirming the right of Americans to boycott, perceived as an expression of support for the anti-Israel BDS (boycott, divest, and sanction) movement that most House Dems oppose. > > … > > 9/ “So we’ll hear a tirade of attacks on Israel from the same group,” said House Dem 3. “Hopefully they won’t be anti Semitic.” > > House Dem 4 also brought up that bill coming “from someone with a history of anti-Semitism” – Omar – “So yeah it’s challenging.” > So lets be quite clear here: this is what the squad have to deal with \*\*from their own party. \*\*The difference is that these cowards don’t have the guts to put their names on this disgusting rhetoric. If you are in favour of free speech then you should be standing behind Omar and Tlaib. The attempts by many (including many democrats) to take away the right to boycott was about as anti-freedom as you can get. We have the House Democrats privately whining off-the-record about the squad. They lied about what Omar has said, and Tapper did not correct the record. If you want the squad to stop pushing back (and lets be honest here: they’ve barely pushed back at all, and that push-back has been blown out of all proportion) then these people should come on the record and have the courage of their convictions. If you want them to stop pushing back then tell the House Democrats to get their house in order as well. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2019, 10:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/404 "2019-07-18T10:10:36Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Do the math. If the Democrats don’t win those states - TRUMP WILL WIN. “Math” doesn’t decide elections. If it all boiled down to “math”, we wouldn’t be having this conversation because it would’ve been very straightforward for Hillary to win. Understand that you are talking about winning hearts and minds that have been poisoned against the Dems for \* decades \*now. The very fact that Trump is letting his racist xenophobic flag fly high in the sky and yet the independents you’re wringing your hands over likely are unbothered by it is a testament to what the Dems are up against. And they are unbothered by a lot more other things, worse things. Acting as though any independent really at risk of voting for Trump at this point can be sold on Dems just as long as they don’t act too lefty (whatever that is) is quite delusional. “Leftist” is not real; it’s whatever Fox News says it is. It’s become the go to slur to marginalize anyone who doesn’t mince words about the status quo. Validating it’s usage helps others divide and conquer us. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2019, 11:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/405 "2019-07-18T11:16:56Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > “Math” doesn’t decide elections. If it all boiled down to “math”, we wouldn’t be having this conversation because it would’ve been very straightforward for Hillary to win. > > Understand that you are talking about winning hearts and minds that have been poisoned against the Dems for \* decades \*now. The very fact that Trump is letting his racist xenophobic flag fly high in the sky and yet the independents you’re wringing your hands over likely are unbothered by it is a testament to what the Dems are up against. And they are unbothered by a lot more other things, worse things. Acting as though any independent really at risk of voting for Trump at this point can be sold on Dems just as long as they don’t act too lefty (whatever that is) is quite delusional. “Leftist” is not real; it’s whatever Fox News says it is. It’s become the go to slur to marginalize anyone who doesn’t mince words about the status quo. Validating it’s usage helps others divide and conquer us. I don’t really see the Democrats at risk of being too lefty, and I kinda think that Trump may be misplaying the race card a bit. Some of the political pundits I’ve seen the last few days have suggested that Trump wants to make The Squad the face of the Democratic party, and to do that, he needs to amp up the racism by suggesting that they’re anti-American. That will work with the racists in his base, but I’m not sure that’s what would crack up the independents, many of whom probably find his attacks distasteful. In short, I don’t think the real damage of this ‘strategy’ (a debatable term, I reckon) has really been inflicted yet. The real damage is yet to come. The real threat that this approach poses comes from the potential of splitting Democrats bitterly in terms of how to respond, and which of its constituencies to favor when responding tactically. We saw this a few weeks ago when Democrats started sniping at each other over border wall funding. And we caught another glimpse of this yesterday when Rep. Green’s impeachment resolution was rejected, but with a growing party split. The question I have is, how much longer are the activist Democrats going to tolerate the center? The danger doesn’t come from Trump merely characterizing the Democrats as a party hijacked by the Squad; the deeper danger, the real one, is the possibility that the party itself could be taken over by perceived radicalism. And if that happens, then they would put independents in the position of asking themselves if the Democratic party is necessarily any better than voting for the Republicans. If the progressives get nasty and personal with their own party’s centrist and moderate factions, then not only do they become less attractive to moderate Democrats, but they also become less attractive to independents as well. Trump can’t win a conventional race against a conventional candidate coming from a conventional Democratic party; he’s trying to make it so that he doesn’t have to compete in that kind of race. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2019, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/406 "2019-07-18T12:11:01Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Personally, I am afraid of Sanders running as a 3rd party. > > Hillary was a good candidate. But mistakes were made. I don’t think Sanders would do that. But I fear the Berniebots are going to throw a tantrum and stay home unless he gets the nomination. “Mistakes were made” is an understatement. She ran on “me! me! me! Make ME the first woman president!” “I’m with her” was a lousy campaign slogan, it stated that it was all about HER. She chose a running mate that added no value to the ticket, no excitement at all. And she tried to run up the score by campaigning in AZ of all places while completely ignoring the rust belt. But let’s all tune into the news at 11 am today. The judge in the Cohen case is going to release all of the material in the case. It will be explosive. Why do you think the government tried to prevent its release? Why was the case dropped weeks after Barr became Donald’s personal lawyer? Inquiring minds are going to find out in less than three hours. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2019, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/407 "2019-07-18T15:06:00Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > …you’ve quoted a very long post of mine. Can you be specific on what part personalised the argument, and what could have been “percieved” as insulting, and is it the moderators instruction that I am to avoid the \*\*perception \*\*of being insulting, even when it should be crystal clear that I am not? We’ll start with this: > [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > Can I suggest that the problem isn’t with the far left, but with the quality of your friends? Maybe get better friends? This is personalizing and insulting. You may believe that it is “crystal clear” that you are not being insulting, but multiple posters saw it as insulting, so I question your perception of crystal clarity. The following is not explicitly insulting; it could have been written to be less hostile. The perception of hostility would have been less if you had not already made this post personal. > [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > Is this “number of people” your two friends? Can you quantify exactly how “significant” this part of the gay community is and can you provide some cites for that? And this is personalizing the discussion: > [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > Can you stop complaining that we aren’t talking about issues that matter to blue collar voters and start talking about the issues that matter to blue collar voters? ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2019, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/408 "2019-07-18T15:24:50Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > “Mistakes were made” is an understatement. She ran on “me! me! me! Make ME the first woman president!” “I’m with her” was a lousy campaign slogan, it stated that it was all about HER. She chose a running mate that added no value to the ticket, no excitement at all. And she tried to run up the score by campaigning in AZ of all places while completely ignoring the rust belt. This is a silly rewrite of 2016. The campaign slogan was “Stronger Together”. Clinton had more policy positions on her website than Warren (who people are rightly saying has plans for all sorts of things) has right now. The vast majority of her speeches were policy based, especially stressing healthcare. (and how exactly is the “I’m with Her” campaigning buttons any worse than “I like Ike”?) Virginia was supposed to be a potential battleground state, so she picked a well liked Senator. What Vice Presidents tended to be until pretty recently. The AZ criticism is fair, but that was due to the polling that was being done at the time that showed that it could flip, but the rust belt was secure. With hindsight it looks silly, but most people (yes there were a few lone voices saying the rust belt were week, but very few) thought it was fine at the time. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2019, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/409 "2019-07-18T15:33:03Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > No offense, but no shit. There isn’t anything profound about this notion. History tells us that this occurs; current events tells us that this occurs. > > The thing that bears mentioning is that so many Dems don’t see the danger in accommodating this rationalization. Despite what history has told us. Despite the slippery slope implications staring us right in the face. The travesty that is Trump becomes normalized every time we’re urged to think about the so-called independents in the Rust Belt. > > If the people you were referring to were at risk of voting for our generation’s version of Hitler, you might have a point. But they are at risk of not voting at all, especially those that feel like collateral damage in a war between two parties that don’t care about helping and protecting them. > > In contrast, **Kolak** is urging us to fret about Rust Belt voters whose reaction to Trump’s tweet isn’t “wow, this President is fucked up and has officially lost my vote” but rather, “wow, look at how triggered these Commie pinko leftists are”. And I don’t have any patience with this viewpoint. Anyone who thinks like this was never the Dems’ to begin with. > > This should be a wake up call for unification and solidarity, but no, here we are still doing the fight between moderates and progressives and who is doing what wrong. If you want to talk about traps that Trump could be setting, I see this as the trap. Paralysis from analysis. Indeed my point is fairly obvious. It is therefore even more significant that so many seem to forget it. Or at least ignore it, as you seem to do. As to the fight between relative moderates and those quite farther Left … I agree to a point. Disagreements exist and we cannot pretend they do not. We obviously do have decide what the party is going to promote as its national message and who will carry that message. And we must do that with some respect for each other. Unfortunately I hear calls for unity and solidarity from the progressive side as meaning that they should be able to call more established leadership whatever name they want and be immune from any criticism, unity to them comes off as meaning doing it their way or they’ll blow the place up. Debate the ideas without insults and in ways that prepare the ground for circling the wagons as the primary season gives its voice of the plurality (if not the majority) decision. Not voting _against_ “our generation’s version of Hitler” (as horrific as he is that Godwinizing is frankly offensive and worse yet silly, but sure go with it), because you don’t feel the alternative adequately cares about you, is morally repugnant. As the cliche goes: “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” And women. And those of fluid identities. > [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > “Math” doesn’t decide elections. If it all boiled down to “math”, we wouldn’t be having this conversation because it would’ve been very straightforward for Hillary to win. … Math 100% DOES decide elections. Some people though can’t add, or minimally count the wrong numbers. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2019, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/410 "2019-07-18T20:57:43Z")
While I am notoriously as big a political hack as anyone, I do think from time to time we have to stop and think what exactly we are saying when we complain that Hillary went to Arizona and did not go to the upper Midwest enough. This has zilch to do with her qualifications to be president, or or the manifest unfitness of her opponent. If at least 55-60 percent of the electorate possessed a lick of sense and/or basic decency (as I erroneously believed in October 2016), she would not have needed to campaign at all. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2019, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/411 "2019-07-18T22:30:12Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > “Math” doesn’t decide elections. If it all boiled down to “math”, we wouldn’t be having this conversation because it would’ve been very straightforward for Hillary to win. Hillary lost because the math in the EC didn’t work out in her favor. That’s the math I’m talking about. The Democrats could pick up millions of votes in CA, IL, NY, MD, NJ, OR, WA, etc and they would still lose if they don’t pick up some of the states Trump carried in 2016. The only math that matters is the math in the Electoral College. > [@asahi](#): > > I don’t really see the Democrats at risk of being too lefty, and I kinda think that Trump may be misplaying the race card a bit. Some of the political pundits I’ve seen the last few days have suggested that Trump wants to make The Squad the face of the Democratic party, and to do that, he needs to amp up the racism by suggesting that they’re anti-American. That will work with the racists in his base, but I’m not sure that’s what would crack up the independents, many of whom probably find his attacks distasteful. I am pretty certain Trump won’t be able to resist going on about The Squad at future rallies. Watching last night it was clear he loved it when the crowd started doing that chant. And I am hopeful it will blow up in his face. I agree it is likely most independents will be uncomfortable with that. > [@asahi](#): > > If the progressives get nasty and personal with their own party’s centrist and moderate factions, then not only do they become less attractive to moderate Democrats, but they also become less attractive to independents as well. Trump can’t win a conventional race against a conventional candidate coming from a conventional Democratic party; he’s trying to make it so that he doesn’t have to compete in that kind of race. I agree this is totally where DJT wants this to go. And centrist/moderates need to avoid getting nasty and personal with the progressives as well. A debate can be had without it being ugly. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2019, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/412 "2019-07-19T01:43:08Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Hillary lost because the math in the EC didn’t work out in her favor. Let me spell out what I meant by taking a dump on your “Do the math” comment: Reducing this to math is absurd oversimplification. And it’s naive. It ignores the fact that we are talking about human beings, many of whom have been severely bombarded with anti-liberal propaganda since they were old enough to watch TV. Many of whom are also uneducated, misinformed, and irrational. By talking in terms of numbers and math, you miss all of this. We don’t need to sell our souls and values down the river just to placate a few hundred thousand ethically-challenged fence sitters whose brows would barely furrow if Trump killed someone tomorrow. What we need to do is stick up for what we believe in, be strong and assertive, stop the in-party divisiveness, and campaign like hell. Focus our efforts on bringing out the vote, not attacking those within the party who are already being attacked by Fox & Friends. [This article sums it up well.](https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/melinda-henneberger/article232797167.html) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2019, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/413 "2019-07-19T02:03:42Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > … It ignores the fact that we are talking about human beings, many of whom have been severely bombarded with anti-liberal propaganda since they were old enough to watch TV. Many of whom are also uneducated, misinformed, and irrational. By talking in terms of numbers and math, you miss all of this… I’m picturing an oncologist yelling at another one who is dutifully calculating the right dose of the chemotherapy agent … “Math? This is a human being who is being tormented by cancer! By talking about math you miss all that!” Yeah, we cannot forget the socioemotional impacts of the disease that Trump is both a manifestation of, and a part of its pathophysiology. Still, the treatment, and maybe even we hope, the cure, requires paying close attention to the math. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2019, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/414 "2019-07-19T02:40:10Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > OK, first of all I think it’s a bit disingenuous to act as though the squad is just four backbench members representing four out of 435 congressional districts. If that were really what they were all about, they could restrict their interaction to constituents only. This is actually how it generally worked not long ago: to email someone in Congress, you had to use the House or Senate site, and it would verify that you were within the correct state or congressional district before allowing you to contact them. > > But AOC and her squad are all about reaching out to millions of people on social media. Which is fine, but then as I say you can’t have it both ways. Remember how we used to say the same thing about the Tea Party Congress? Remember how Michelle Bachman ran for President after just six years in the House? Why can’t these people just be quiet like they’re supposed to? ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2019, 6:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/415 "2019-07-19T06:40:39Z")
Yeah, they were a pain in Boehner’s posterior. Fortunately the squad is much smaller. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/416 "2019-07-20T06:41:08Z")
NM ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/417 "2019-07-20T06:46:37Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > …Reducing this to math is absurd oversimplification. And it’s naive. It ignores the fact that we are talking about human beings, many of whom have been severely bombarded with anti-liberal propaganda since they were old enough to watch TV. Many of whom are also uneducated, misinformed, and irrational. By talking in terms of numbers and math, you miss all of this… [About that math.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/upshot/trump-electoral-college-edge-.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fnate-cohn&action=click&contentCollection=undefined®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection) > [@](#): > > The president’s relative advantage in the Electoral College could grow even further in a high-turnout election, which could pad Democratic margins nationwide while doing little to help them in the Northern battleground states. > > It is even possible that Mr. Trump could win while losing the national vote by as much as five percentage points. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/418 "2019-07-20T13:56:53Z")
What knowledge do you think you’re really dropping, **Kolack**? Everyone in this thread understands the electoral college. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/419 "2019-07-20T14:30:39Z")
> [@](#): > > What knowledge do you think you’re really dropping, Kolack? Everyone in this thread understands the electoral college. Every thread about presidential elections must include multiple people pointing out the Electoral College as if the rest of us hadn’t heard of it before. I don’t buy the analysis in the NYT article. I think the truth is much more simple: Republicans always vote no matter what, Democrats vote when they’re motivated. There has never been more motivation for Democrats then there will be in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/420 "2019-07-20T14:30:59Z")
The significance is self-evident and relevant to the ongoing debate of who is important to target and how that is informed by that math that you dump on. By the math of that article high turn out of a broadly defined base may result in a big popular vote win and still lose the election. Winning the states that matter does not necessarily happen with a larger national popular vote win. Doing less poorly with those other than the base is needed. Again, how to target them and whether they can be targeted in ways that do not work against also maximizing the various portions of the base, is a separate and very important item. But the math means they have to be held as important. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=20) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=22)