# Do you think Trump will win in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 19, 2019, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728 "2019-06-19T01:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 23
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2019, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/441 "2019-07-22T03:04:36Z")
I’m not voting as I think it’s premature until we know, with a reasonable degree of certainty who the Dems are going to run. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2019, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/442 "2019-07-22T03:47:47Z")
Cosigning DSeid’s posts, as per usual. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2019, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/443 "2019-07-22T05:03:37Z")
I think regardless of who the nominee is, Dems will have the enthusiasm advantage this time around. Between that and not running Clinton as a candidate, things would appear to be favor of a Democratic president. However, Trump is going to cheat. He has already told us he’s going to cheat and doesn’t feel bad about it. He’s also got an attorney general who sets a new standard for boot-licking toadies everywhere. It would not surprise me at all if there was an October surprise consisting of an FBI raid coinciding with the sudden announcement that the Democratic candidate is under investigation for eating babies or kicking puppies or a secret sex club under a pizza parlor or whatever will have an approximately similar effect to Comey re-opening the investigation into Clinton. My prayers go out to all gods great and small that Trump’s constant diet of cheeseburgers and over-dramatic stress leads to a health breakdown that makes him reconsider whether this is what he really wants to do for four more years. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2019, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/444 "2019-07-22T05:34:21Z")
This theory of how to run against Trump is similar to my belief in 2016 that Hillary should not have normalized Trump by treating him as a normal candidate. I think it’s absolutely correct that it’s a huge mistake to just turn this into a D vs. R contest. And it’s yet another reason why it makes no sense to nominate Elizabeth Warren and all her “plans for that”. > **[Thread by @timjacobwise: "1/ If the Dems blow this election it will not be...](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1152930670093787141.html)** > > Thread by @timjacobwise: "1/ If the Dems blow this election it will not be because they were "too far left on policy" or because they "weren'It will have little to do with policy at all. They are making a mistake caused by traditional consultant theo... ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2019, 10:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/445 "2019-07-22T10:06:01Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > This theory of how to run against Trump is similar to my belief in 2016 that Hillary should not have normalized Trump by treating him as a normal candidate. I think it’s absolutely correct that it’s a huge mistake to just turn this into a D vs. R contest. And it’s yet another reason why it makes no sense to nominate Elizabeth Warren and all her “plans for that”. > > [Thread by @timjacobwise: "1/ If the Dems blow this election it will not be because they were "too far left on policy" or because they "weren't left enough." It will h […]"](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1152930670093787141.html) While reading this article, Warren wasn’t whom I thought of. It’s all the moderate voices who think calling out Trump’s racism is bad strategy. Being afraid to respond to Trump’s behavior because “that’s what he wants” has the unintended consequence of normalizing his conduct. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2019, 10:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/446 "2019-07-22T10:15:39Z")
Okay, so this Tim Wise piece that **Slacker** linked to is like word for word what I’ve been saying throughout thread (and other threads). This part especially. > [@](#): > > First, trying to flip Trump voters is a waste of time. Any of them who regret their vote don’t need to be pandered to. They’ll do the right thing. Don’t focus on them. That said, very few will regret their vote. They cannot accept they voted for a monster or got suckered… > 23/ Duke retained 94% of the folks he got the first time out (and got new people too), as Trump likely will. So forget these people–or at least don’t wast time tailoring messages to them. And policy plans for affordable college don’t mean shit to them, nor health care… > 24/ Their support for Trump was never about policy. It was about the bigotry, the fact that he hates who they hate…Second, as for the “undecideds.” …Not many of these but seriously? If you’re still undecided at this point about this guy… > 25/ Then there is almost no way to know what would get you to make up your mind…I doubt it’s a plan to deal with Wall Street though, or infrastructure, or tax policy… > 26/ If anything, I would say crafting an argument that this is an existential crisis for the nation–and making it about Trump’s bigotry and who we want to be as a country, would be far more effective in inspiring them to make up their minds… ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2019, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/447 "2019-07-22T11:58:23Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > The reactive behavior by Democrats is the problem. Moderates and progressives have to be proactive and explain what they intend to do to make people’s lives better. This, but most importantly, they can’t crack up. They have to find ways to organize and remain disciplined as a party and not have two wings of the party openly fighting for power of the party in public. That’s because, instinctively, voters look for strength in individuals and in groups. A party that bitterly divides itself into intra-party conflicts is going to look weak, and it’s going to give voters the impression that they don’t know where they’re going as a party. Instinctively, the party that looks more unified has the edge, not just because they’re more likely to bring more of their legions to the polls (which they are of course) but also because just look like they know what they want to achieve, and we as humans are instinctively more attracted to that. Republicans get it - which is why they don’t tolerate dissent. Republicans can also get away with being more tribal, and tribalism from Democrats in response will actually play to the strength of Republicans, not Democrats. Democrats can still have internal and even occasionally public disagreements over the issues, but they can’t let those disagreements get personal. They’ll lose then. > [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Allowing Trump’s tantrums and bad behavior to dominate every news cycle is a losing strategy for them. It’s hard to ignore Trump because he makes it virtually impossible for his critics to ignore him. That’s why he will only become more and more outrageous. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2019, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/448 "2019-07-22T14:17:13Z")
**YWTF** It seems to me like Mr. Wise’s brush paints exceptionally broadly. To say that it is impossible to do less horribly than HRC did with that demographic (which mandates flipping Trump voters), while all modern Democratic nominees before her have, including Obama, (because they are all racists haters or whatever) is simply absurdism that flies in the face of past performance. It flies in the face of the fact that many voted D in 2018 with the biggest shift in “sparse suburban” districts. There is \*strong evidence \*that is simply wrong… The thesis rests on a belief that those who feel they made a mistake don’t need to have the issues that matter to them addressed (be pandered to) because they will do the right thing now and the rest are racist haters. Some are those racist haters, no question. And whether their support of Trump is due to that or some other politics of resentment or imagined grievances, there is a core that is without doubt not reachable. That could be a scary big number of a third of all who vote, Trump’s very firm floor. But he got to his ceiling on last election day by getting others to vote for him too. And those people are not any more or less racist than are many who voted for Clinton. Yes, there were low information undecideds up to a week before the election despite all of what Trump put on display … and they broke late for him. And they break one way or the other in approval polls week to week depending on the news cycles. The number is not many percent but it was enough to swing an election’s electoral college result. I’d concur that the details of policy is not what these people vote on. They do vote on whether or not they feel the candidate cares about them and their problems, and against who they dislike or distrust more at that specific moment in time. Mr. Wise says ignore issues completely and make the election one about “Trump is a racist authoritarian” or to use the exact quote, the only item is “Trumpism is a threat to everything we care about and love about this country.” Okay, no alternative vision offered, no policies positions emphasized. It is exclusively about that existential choice. Do _you_ think that ignoring policy the issues that matter to progressives is the appropriate course? Do you think that their being told that their policy concerns are immaterial or effectively ignoring them, is the best approach? Or is that only the best approach for those whose concerns you do not especially share as things that impact you? If this is to be an existential choice then it cannot be Trumpism vs uhhh? It works best if it framed instead as Trumpism vs a positive vision of a change from Trumpism that most can feel good about and comfortable with. That means policies that people interpret as showing caring about people like them and that allows them to sign on to a grander vision without excessive pain. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2019, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/449 "2019-07-22T15:35:36Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > **YWTF** > > It seems to me like Mr. Wise’s brush paints exceptionally broadly. To say that it is impossible to do less horribly than HRC did with that demographic (which mandates flipping Trump voters), while all modern Democratic nominees before her have, including Obama, (because they are all racists haters or whatever) is simply absurdism that flies in the face of past performance. Tim Wise isn’t talking about “demographics” and neither am I. Lol. _You_ are fixated on demographics, which is why I find your analysis needlessly convoluted and flawed. What Wise and I are saying is that the hearts and minds of _the Trump-supporting population_–regardless of race, gender, sexual orientation, socioeconomic class–are closed to persuasion from Dems. It doesn’t mean that they can’t change their mind about him, but this change won’t be because of something a Dem says or does. If they have any epiphanies, it’s going to be because Trump does something to hurt them or an issue they care about. Dems would do well enough if they just let this process unfold and focus their attention on other things. > [@](#): > > It flies in the face of the fact that many voted D in 2018 with the biggest shift in “sparse suburban” districts. There is \*strong evidence \*that is simply wrong.. Do you have evidence that significant numbers of D voters in 2018 voted R in 2016? Because just pointing out lots of suburbanites voted D in 2016 doesn’t allow us to conclude anything about flipping voters from R to D. Again, this is why getting hung up on demographics is dangerous. It causes you think suburban voters are a hive-minded block rather than a group composed of varying percentages of liberals, moderates, and conservatives. So yeah, if the Dem turnout was strong in 2018, guess what you’ll see? More liberal suburbanites voting. > [@](#): > > The thesis rests on a belief that those who feel they made a mistake don’t need to have the issues that matter to them addressed (be pandered to) because they will do the right thing now and the rest are racist haters. They are perfectly fine with racism being in the White House, yes. > [@](#): > > Some are those racist haters, no question. And whether their support of Trump is due to that or some other politics of resentment or imagined grievances, there is a core that is without doubt not reachable. That could be a scary big number of a third of all who vote, Trump’s very firm floor. But he got to his ceiling on last election day by getting others to vote for him too. But these “others” are okay with racism being in the White House. Which means that we can’t count on these voters to abandon Trump even if he brings on the Final Solution 2.0. Which means these voters are substantially no different than voters who are clamoring for Final Solution 2.0. > [@](#): > > Do _you_ think that ignoring policy the issues that matter to progressives is the appropriate course? Do you think that their being told that their policy concerns are immaterial or effectively ignoring them, is the best approach? Or is that only the best approach for those whose concerns you do not especially share as things that impact you? I think the Dems need to articulate sound policy messaging. Not because that is what is going to seduce the vote of Trump-leaning independents, but because I (and other Dems) need to see that to 1) feel confident in their leadership, 2) be motivated to talk positively about their candidacy, and 3) promote them to more apathetic voters. Policy _is_ important. It’s just not the stuff that is going to _flip_ voters. The worse thing that could happen is that Trump says a bunch of racist stuff during the debate, and the Dem nominee is too afraid to counter it because of all this cautioning about “giving him what he wants”. What needs to happen is that Trump is soundly tongue-lashed if he even _thinks_ of being racist on stage. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2019, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/450 "2019-07-22T17:59:32Z")
I was reading [this article in the NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/22/us/politics/trump-michigan-racism-2020.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage) about how Trump voters in Michigan still love the President when near the end I read this: > [@](#): > > Mr. Trump’s strength in 2016 was — and remains — largely dependent on how he fared against a widely mistrusted opponent. Roughly 75,000 voters in Michigan did not vote for president at all but did vote in races further down ballot, suggesting that there were enough Michiganders who found both candidates so unappealing that their absence helped put Mr. Trump over the edge. This is why I think it is foolhardy to dismiss out of hand voters who didn’t pull the lever for HRC in 2016 as some in this thread have advocated. \*\*DJT only won Michigan by 11,000 votes. \*\* If the Democratic nominee can find a way to attract a significant part of those 75,000 who skipped voting for President but still went to the polls then they could win Michigan. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2019, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/451 "2019-07-22T18:09:25Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > This is why I think it is foolhardy to dismiss out of hand voters who didn’t pull the lever for HRC in 2016 as some in this thread have advocated. \*\*DJT only won Michigan by 11,000 votes. \*\* Wut? No one in this thread is for dismissing these voters. When we say focus should be on increasing Dem turnout, what we’re actually talking is about is this group of voters. This group is distinct from people who voted for Trump and are at risk for voting for him again. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2019, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/452 "2019-07-22T19:42:39Z")
Here’s an interesting article from NPR: > **[Poll: Americans Not Sold On Trump — Or Democrats](https://www.npr.org/2019/07/22/743516166/npr-newshour-marist-poll-americans-not-sold-on-trump-or-democrats)** > > President Trump has his highest approval rating yet, even though his reelection prospects continue to be lackluster. But voters aren't yet buying what Democrats are selling. And here’s an interesting poll from Marist: [http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/NPR\_PBS-NewsHour\_Marist-Poll\_USA-NOS-and-Tables\_1907190926.pdf#page=3](http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1907190926.pdf#page=3) Notice the approval rating. Notice the intense polarization, with now 90 percent of Republican voters approving and only 7 percent of Democratic voters approving. About 42% of independent voters approve, with a margin for error of about 5%. This is really not that much different at all from his standing on election night. Trump’s approval is as high as it has ever been, it would seem, even after he has threatened to defy the Court and even after his racist diatribes. His polarization is paying dividends, which means we can expect more of it. > [@](#): > > “Independents are on the fence overall,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College, which conducted the poll. “They’re not willing to grant President Trump reelection, and yet they’re not persuaded by Democrats at this point.” And as much as we don’t want to face the truth: the Democrats can’t even keep the House without the support of independents. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2019, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/453 "2019-07-23T00:22:46Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Here’s an interesting article from NPR: > > [NPR/NewsHour/Marist Poll: Americans Not Sold On Trump — Or Democrats : NPR](https://www.npr.org/2019/07/22/743516166/npr-newshour-marist-poll-americans-not-sold-on-trump-or-democrats) > > And here’s an interesting poll from Marist: > > [http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/NPR\_PBS-NewsHour\_Marist-Poll\_USA-NOS-and-Tables\_1907190926.pdf#page=3](http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_1907190926.pdf#page=3) > > Notice the approval rating. Notice the intense polarization, with now 90 percent of Republican voters approving and only 7 percent of Democratic voters approving. About 42% of independent voters approve, with a margin for error of about 5%. This is really not that much different at all from his standing on election night. Trump’s approval is as high as it has ever been, it would seem, even after he has threatened to defy the Court and even after his racist diatribes. His polarization is paying dividends, which means we can expect more of it. From the NPR article you cited: > [@](#): > > Trump did his best in this polling since taking office, but his approval rating is still just 44%. **Fewer independents are undecided about the president and give him a 42% approval rating, up from 35% in June.** Unfortunately, this finding supports a pessimistic opinion towards the undecided. Some of them truly might not have a opinion due to abject ignorance at this point, but I’m willing to bet most actually do like Trump; they just think it’s better to profess neutrality until something (like him doing something racist and/or provocative) emboldens them to be honest. Tim Wise is right: we really need to ask ourselves how anyone can truly be undecided. And how much truth value should we assign to someone calling themselves undecided. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2019, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/454 "2019-07-23T02:27:40Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > Tim Wise isn’t talking about “demographics” and neither am I. Lol. _You_ are fixated on demographics, which is why I find your analysis needlessly convoluted and flawed. 🙂 Right you and he are not talking about demographics … just who of what group will or won’t vote how and how that informs how to campaign. Not talking about demographics at all! > [@](#): > > What Wise and I are saying is that the hearts and minds of _the Trump-supporting population_–regardless of race, gender, sexual orientation, socioeconomic class–are closed to persuasion from Dems. It doesn’t mean that they can’t change their mind about him, but this change won’t be because of something a Dem says or does. If they have any epiphanies, it’s going to be because Trump does something to hurt them or an issue they care about. Dems would do well enough if they just let this process unfold and focus their attention on other things. “The Trump supporting population” is no more a single thing of one mind than are “woman voters.” The numbers that can be flipped are not huge … but you’ve reminded us how close the 2016 election was and how a few votes, much less than 1%, in a few states, made the difference. > [@](#): > > Do you have evidence that significant numbers of D voters in 2018 voted R in 2016? … [Linked before.](https://wthh.dataforprogress.org/exploring-vote-switchers-in-2018) Of total votes those who had gone Obama-Trump were about 4%. Of them 30% switched to D in their 2018 vote. There were also voters who had been Romney-Trump who switched to D for 2018. Altogether the switchers from Trump in 2016 to D in 2018 were about 3% of the vote. Given the way the last election was lost I see 3% of flipped votes as very significant. (Don’t forget you have to have turnout difference of 6% to have the same impact.) > [@](#): > > They are perfectly fine with racism being in the White House, yes. > > But these “others” are okay with racism being in the White House. … Yes, they are. Some who are not racist still will look the other way if they feel it serves the interests of what they care about more. Again, as you’d say: no duh. Yeah, they are willing to ignore a lot in service of the issues they care more about and feeling that they and their issues are cared about. But they are not voting FOR the racism, that is not the appeal to them. It is fundamentally different than those clamoring for racist rhetoric and action and voting explicitly for it. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2019, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/455 "2019-07-23T04:14:40Z")
One more item to add in. The same approaches that flip a few also may have lesser but still important impact on others. Not enough to get the to vote for the D nominee, but at least not feeling the need to vote against that nominee and for Trump. None of this means you ignore his racist rants btw. But neither is that the only way that he is despicable. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2019, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/456 "2019-07-23T04:32:36Z")
Oh, no - I’ve gotta hand it to him, he’s endlessly inventive in finding ways to be despicable. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2019, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/457 "2019-07-23T18:54:41Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > 🙂 Right you and he are not talking about demographics … just who of what group will or won’t vote how and how that informs how to campaign. Not talking about demographics at all! Since you’re so skeptical, let me ask you this: How likely is it that Trump will be able to persuade you to vote for him? Could he do anything between now and November 2020 to not only cause you to abandon the Democrats, but to vote for him? Threatening you at gunpoint doesn’t count. Now think about your friends, family, neighbors, and coworkers. Do you know of any HRC voters who might vote for Trump if he sloganeered the right way? The reality is that Republicans are as adamantly against Dems as Dems are against Trump. The approval rate among Republicans is the exact inverse of disapproval among Dems. We need to come to grips with what this means in this election. Holding on to hope that Dems will flip a bunch of Trump-supporters is about as realistic as expecting atheists to deconvert a bunch of evangelical Christians. _This doesn’t mean that no 2016 Trump-supporters will change their mind about him_. A small fraction of them may very well come to their senses. But Dems don’t need to concern themselves with trying to force this change. If it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen because Trump befouls himself. Tim Wise’s point is that we shouldn’t shy away from responding forcefully to Trump, simply out of the fear of looking bad to quasi Trump-supporters. It makes no sense to try to appease voters that wouldn’t vote for you even if you held a gun to their head. > [@](#): > > The numbers that can be flipped are not huge … but you’ve reminded us how close the 2016 election was and how a few votes, much less than 1%, in a few states, made the difference. Right, and I’m not saying it’s impossible for Trump to lose 1% of his support. I’m just saying it’s unlikely Dems will be driving this loss. > [@](#): > > [Linked before.](https://wthh.dataforprogress.org/exploring-vote-switchers-in-2018) Of total votes those who had gone Obama-Trump were about 4%. Of them 30% switched to D in their 2018 vote. There were also voters who had been Romney-Trump who switched to D for 2018. Altogether the switchers from Trump in 2016 to D in 2018 were about 3% of the vote. This is great. If these voters are genuinely fed up with Trump, then hopefully they won’t vote for him in 2020. But all I’m saying is I won’t be surprised if they do vote for him. In fact, out of an abundance of caution, I going to assume they will all vote for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![MichaelEmouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/michaelemouse/32/101_2.png) [@MichaelEmouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MichaelEmouse)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2019, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/458 "2019-07-23T19:14:15Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > Since you’re so skeptical, let me ask you this: How likely is it that Trump will be able to persuade you to vote for him? Could he do anything between now and November 2020 to not only cause you to abandon the Democrats, but to vote for him? Threatening you at gunpoint doesn’t count. > > Now think about your friends, family, neighbors, and coworkers. Do you know of any HRC voters who might vote for Trump if he sloganeered the right way? > > The reality is that Republicans are as adamantly against Dems as Dems are against Trump. The approval rate among Republicans is the exact inverse of disapproval among Dems. We need to come to grips with what this means in this election. Holding on to hope that Dems will flip a bunch of Trump-supporters is about as realistic as expecting atheists to deconvert a bunch of evangelical Christians. > > _This doesn’t mean that no 2016 Trump-supporters will change their mind about him_. A small fraction of them may very well come to their senses. But Dems don’t need to concern themselves with trying to force this change. If it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen because Trump befouls himself. > > Tim Wise’s point is that we shouldn’t shy away from responding forcefully to Trump, simply out of the fear of looking bad to quasi Trump-supporters. It makes no sense to try to appease voters that wouldn’t vote for you even if you held a gun to their head. It reminds me of dim older people on Facebook taking about how, because someone on the pro-gay side had been rude to them online, they were going to finally make up for mind and be against gay marriage. Like that was ever in play for them. Republicans blaming anyone is like a abusive husband telling his wife he wouldn’t have hit her if she’d made dinner on time. Just summarily dismiss whatever comes from them; They’re squids squirting ink. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2019, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/459 "2019-07-24T00:05:14Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > Since you’re so skeptical, let me ask you this: How likely is it that Trump will be able to persuade you to vote for him? Could he do anything between now and November 2020 to not only cause you to abandon the Democrats, but to vote for him? … No one is disputing that the majority of the voters are either “loyal Democrats” or “loyal Republicans” or that turnout is important. In that same survey which tried to study the beliefs of the different sorts of vote switchers the vast majority were loyal voters. They had 49% as loyal Democrats and 43% as loyal Republicans by voting record over the three elections. And yes how many of each of those turn out matters. That majority does not however go against the fact that there is a significant minority who have switched back and forth and that to no small degree those people help decide close elections. > [@](#): > > … Tim Wise’s point is that we shouldn’t shy away from responding forcefully to Trump, simply out of the fear of looking bad to quasi Trump-supporters. It makes no sense to try to appease voters that wouldn’t vote for you even if you held a gun to their head. > > Right, and I’m not saying it’s impossible for Trump to lose 1% of his support. I’m just saying it’s unlikely Dems will be driving this loss. … I am not reading that as what Mr. Wise is saying and if that was what he was saying I don’t think many would disagree. Of course “forcefully” is not the same as “stupidly”. Godwinizing Trump is stupid. No, he is not Hitler and he no plans for a Final Solution 2.0 or for death camps. Claiming, even hyperbolically, that such is the nature of his racism is not helpful. And those (and some do) who say that anyone who votes for Trump is a racist, is also not being helpful. It is also not true. I read Mr. Wise as saying that issues are immaterial, that the only item is the existential message of how Trump is threat to everything that is good about this country. Nothing else matters. We also strongly disagree on whether or not there actually are people, people who were before Trump that their problems seem to them to be being ignored, and who are experiencing their problems now functionally being not just ignored but actively made worse, who can be swayed to vote D if they conclude both that Trump is failing them on their issues, and that the D candidate cares about them and their issues as real, valid, and worthy of concern and action. That’s not “appeasing them” any more than “articulating sound policy” is appeasing Democrats so that they can feel confident about the leadership, be motivated to talk positively about their candidacy, and promote them to more apathetic voters. It’s simply letting them know that they and their real and valid issues also matter to the Democratic candidate and will matter in their administration. Call out Trump’s hateful speech for what it is (and no need to exaggerate, it is horrific enough without having to), call it out for its impact in causing greater division and discord, for fostering a climate that empowers those who shoot up temples, mosques, and call for murder of politicians who they dislike … and offer a positive inclusive alternative that particularly addresses issues important across the spectrum pretty other than the core MAGAbots. Don’t assume that everyone who voted for Trump before is a racist MAGAbot … a good chunk may be but a very significant bit are not. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2019, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728/460 "2019-07-24T01:45:09Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I am not reading that as what Mr. Wise is saying and if that was what he was saying I don’t think many would disagree. His point is pretty clear. See this part? > [@](#): > > People who say the Dems should ignore Trump’s race baiting because its some genius political strategy calculated to distract us, are idiots. He is no genius. And if you downplay it you NORMALIZE him.\*\* If you make this about policy, you NORMALIZE him.\*\* He is a racist… Basically, he’s saying the Dems need to take the kid gloves off, stop urging the party to turn the other cheek when Trump slaps the brown folks, and don’t shy away from labeling Trump’s actions racist out of fear of upsetting racists. Because doing all of these things removes the sense of urgency that is needed to get Dems to the polls. > [@](#): > > I read Mr. Wise as saying that issues are immaterial, that the only item is the existential message of how Trump is threat to everything that is good about this country. Nothing else matters. He makes a convincing argument for why this is pretty much true. If policy was what mattered to the majority of voters, Trump wouldn’t have been elected in the first place. His support wouldn’t be as high as it is either. He shutdown the government to get money for a wall…and where is it? And all those coal jobs? Where they at? And yet his approval hasn’t declined much at all. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=22) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-you-think-trump-will-win-in-2020/835728.md?page=24)